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Euro-US Dollar Futures

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Euro Futures (6E) - Technical Analysis Report - 20250908Analysis Date: September 8, 2025 Current Price: 1.1742 Market Session: Post-Market Analysis --- Executive Summary Euro Futures presents the strongest technical setup among analyzed markets, with exceptional execution chart alignment despite moderate institutional positioning. The currency pair has emerged from a major bottoming pattern with validated bullish momentum signals across all timeframes. While institutional accumulation is less pronounced than in commodity markets, the technical breakout quality and central bank policy divergence create compelling risk/reward opportunities. --- Quarterly Volume Profile Analysis Institutional Positioning Intelligence The quarterly volume profile (Q3 2025) reveals moderate but strategically positioned institutional activity in the Euro: Primary Institutional Activity Zone: 1.1550-1.1700 Moderate blue volume concentration representing institutional positioning during major low formation Current price (1.1742) trades at upper boundary of institutional accumulation zone Volume profile shows classic bottoming pattern with accumulation at major support levels Institutional activity concentrated around key technical support levels from previous cycles Volume Profile Architecture: Core Accumulation: 1.1580-1.1650 (primary institutional positioning) Extended Support: 1.1450-1.1550 (secondary institutional interest) Breakout Level: 1.1700-1.1750 (current resistance/breakout zone) Void Zone: Above 1.1800 (minimal resistance, potential acceleration territory) Resistance Structure Analysis: 1.1750-1.1800: Initial resistance with mixed volume activity 1.1850-1.1900: Moderate yellow volume indicating previous distribution 1.1950+: Historical distribution zones from earlier 2025 highs Price Structure Context Historical Pattern Recognition: The current Euro setup displays textbook currency reversal characteristics following a major multi-month decline. The institutional accumulation at 1.1550-1.1700 represents strategic positioning by smart money during the formation of a significant low, typical of major currency cycle turning points. Critical Structure Validation: Institutional Floor: 1.1450 represents absolute lower boundary of smart money positioning Volume Point of Control: 1.1620 shows peak institutional activity within accumulation zone Breakout Validation: Current price above institutional accumulation confirms technical breakout Risk Definition: Clear institutional boundaries provide precise risk management parameters Central Bank Policy Context Policy Divergence Supporting Euro Strength: European Central Bank maintaining restrictive policy stance Federal Reserve approaching policy pivot with potential dovish shift Interest rate differential dynamics favoring Euro in medium term Quantitative tightening policies supporting European currency fundamentals --- Execution Chart Technical Analysis Current Technical Configuration - EXCEPTIONAL BULLISH ALIGNMENT DEMA Analysis - STRONGEST BULLISH SIGNAL IN ANALYZED MARKETS: Black Line (Fast DEMA 12): Currently at 1.1742 Orange Line (Slow DEMA 20): Currently at 1.1712 Configuration: Perfect bullish crossover with expanding gap Trend Bias: Strongest technical momentum across all analyzed markets DMI/ADX Assessment - CONFIRMED TRENDING CONDITIONS: ADX Level: 35+ indicating strong directional movement +DI vs -DI: +DI clearly dominant over -DI with expanding spread Momentum Direction: Confirming sustained bullish bias with conviction Trend Strength: ADX rising confirms institutional and technical alignment Stochastic Analysis - HEALTHY MOMENTUM STRUCTURE: Tactical Stochastic (5,3,3): Bullish configuration with room for extension Strategic Stochastic (50,3,3): Confirming longer-term bullish momentum shift Divergence Analysis: No negative divergences, clean momentum structure throughout Support and Resistance Levels Immediate Technical Levels: Current Support: 1.1710 (DEMA 20 orange line) Key Support: 1.1680 (recent breakout consolidation) Major Support: 1.1620 (institutional accumulation core) Immediate Resistance: 1.1780 (near-term extension target) Key Resistance: 1.1820 (major resistance zone) Major Resistance: 1.1900 (significant distribution zone) --- Trading Scenarios and Setup Criteria Scenario 1: Continuation Long Setup (PRIMARY) Optimal Conditions for Long Entry: DEMA bullish maintenance: Black line remaining above orange line with gap expansion DMI confirmation: +DI sustaining dominance over -DI with strengthening ADX Breakout validation: Price holding above 1.1700 breakout level Volume confirmation: Increased volume supporting upward momentum Policy support: Central bank divergence maintaining fundamental backdrop Entry Protocol: Primary Entry: Current levels 1.1740-1.1760 (validated breakout zone) Secondary Entry: 1.1710-1.1720 on any pullback to DEMA support Position Sizing: Aggressive 2.5% account risk given exceptional technical setup Stop Loss: Below 1.1680 (breakout failure) Profit Targets: Target 1: 1.1820 (first major resistance) - Take 40% profits Target 2: 1.1900 (distribution zone approach) - Take 30% profits Target 3: 1.1980-1.2000 (major resistance complex) - Trail remaining 30% Scenario 2: Pullback Accumulation Setup (SECONDARY) Conditions for Pullback Entry: Price retracement to 1.1700-1.1720 breakout support zone DEMA holding bullish configuration during pullback Stochastic oversold providing tactical entry signal Volume profile respect at breakout support levels Pullback Setup Parameters: Entry Range: 1.1700-1.1720 (breakout support zone) Stop Loss: Below 1.1680 (breakout invalidation) Targets: Same as primary scenario with enhanced risk/reward Position Sizing: Maximum allocation given superior entry point Scenario 3: Acceleration Breakout Setup (AGGRESSIVE) Breakout Trading Framework: Acceleration Level: Above 1.1800 (void zone entry) Volume Confirmation: Significant volume expansion supporting breakout Technical Validation: DEMA gap expansion with ADX above 40 Momentum Persistence: +DI expanding dominance over -DI Acceleration Parameters: Entry: 1.1805-1.1820 on confirmed acceleration Stop: Below 1.1750 (failed acceleration) Extended Targets: 1.1950, 1.2000, 1.2050+ Position Management: Trail stops using 0.004 structure levels --- Risk Management Protocols Position Sizing Guidelines Aggressive Approach (Recommended for 6E): Maximum Risk: 2.5% of account (increased allocation due to exceptional technical quality) Contract Calculation: Account Size × 0.025 ÷ (Stop Distance × $12.50 per pip) Example: $100,000 account with 60-pip stop = 33 contracts maximum Rationale: Strongest technical setup justifies aggressive allocation Stop Loss Hierarchy Tactical Stop: 1.1710 (DEMA support) Strategic Stop: 1.1680 (breakout support) Emergency Stop: 1.1650 (institutional accumulation boundary) Profit Management Framework Systematic Profit Taking: First Target (40%): Lock in profits at initial resistance zone Second Target (30%): Capture extended move through distribution areas Final Position (30%): Trail for potential acceleration beyond 1.2000 Trail Stop Method: Use 0.004 structure chart levels once in profit --- Market Context and External Factors Fundamental Catalysts Supporting Euro Strength Central Bank Policy Dynamics: ECB maintaining restrictive stance longer than Fed Interest rate differential shifting in favor of Euro Quantitative tightening supporting currency fundamentals Inflation dynamics favoring European monetary policy Economic Factors: European energy security improvements reducing volatility Manufacturing sector stabilization supporting economic outlook Current account dynamics favoring Euro strength Political stability improving investor confidence Technical Market Structure Currency Market Positioning: Speculative positioning showing Euro oversold conditions reversing Commercial hedger activity supporting Euro strength Cross-currency relationships confirming Dollar weakness Volatility patterns suggesting sustained directional move --- Monitoring Checklist and Alert Levels Daily Monitoring Requirements DEMA Configuration: Maintain bullish black above orange relationship Breakout Respect: Confirm price behavior above 1.1700 breakout level Volume Analysis: Monitor for volume expansion on upward moves Central Bank Events: ECB and Fed policy statements, economic data releases Dollar Correlation: Monitor relationship with DXY and other major currency pairs Critical Alert Levels Bullish Escalation Alerts: Break above 1.1800 with volume expansion DEMA gap expansion beyond 30 pips +DI moving above 40 with ADX persistence above 40 ECB hawkish policy statements supporting fundamental backdrop Risk Management Alerts: DEMA bearish crossover (black below orange) Break below 1.1700 breakout support level ADX declining below 25 indicating momentum loss Fed policy pivot announcements affecting interest rate differential --- Strategic Outlook and Conviction Assessment Risk/Reward Analysis Exceptional Setup Characteristics: Risk: 60 pips to breakout support (1.1680) Reward: 150+ pips to first major resistance (1.1900+) Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.5:1 minimum, potential 4:1+ Probability Assessment: High (80%+) based on technical breakout quality Portfolio Allocation Recommendation Maximum Technical Conviction Positioning Euro Futures represents the highest quality technical setup in the current market environment. The exceptional alignment of DEMA crossover, DMI momentum, and validated breakout above institutional accumulation creates optimal conditions for aggressive positioning. While institutional accumulation is less pronounced than in commodities, the technical execution quality and central bank policy support justify maximum allocation within risk parameters. Allocation Framework: Primary Portfolio Weight: 20-25% (maximum technical conviction) Entry Method: Immediate positioning with scale-in capability on pullbacks Hold Period: Expect 3-8 week position duration Exit Strategy: Systematic profit-taking at technical resistance levels --- Conclusion and Strategic Assessment Euro Futures presents the strongest technical setup among all analyzed markets, with exceptional DEMA crossover quality and validated breakout above institutional accumulation. While the institutional positioning is less dramatic than commodity accumulation patterns, the technical execution signals are pristine and supported by favorable central bank policy dynamics. Current positioning above breakout support offers superior risk/reward characteristics with clearly defined parameters for both profit-taking and risk management. Implementation Priority: Immediate aggressive positioning recommended - this technical setup quality represents the gold standard for momentum-based entries with institutional validation. Next Review: Daily monitoring of DEMA configuration and breakout level respect Position Management: Systematic profit-taking protocol with trailing stops at technical levels --- Important Disclaimer Risk Warning and Educational Purpose Statement This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or trading signals. All trading and investment decisions are solely the responsibility of the individual trader or investor. Key Risk Considerations: Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors Past performance does not guarantee future results Market conditions can change rapidly, invalidating any analysis Leverage can amplify both profits and losses significantly Individual financial circumstances and risk tolerance vary greatly Professional Guidance: Before making any trading decisions, consult with qualified financial advisors, conduct your own research, and ensure you fully understand the risks involved. Only trade with capital you can afford to lose. Methodology Limitations: Volume profile analysis and technical indicators are tools for market assessment but are not infallible predictors of future price movement. Market dynamics include numerous variables that cannot be fully captured in any single analytical framework. The views and analysis presented represent one interpretation of market data and should be considered alongside other forms of analysis and individual judgment.
CME:6E1!
by mxb1961
EUR LONGDXY 2 main SELL directional confirmations - 12hr ascending flag with 3day & 8hr descending trend lines 1 supportive SELL direction - higher high & higher low on smaller 2hr time frame 2 entry confirmations - Support turned Resistance and flag retest at the same level. EURO 1 main BUY directional confirmation - 2hr ascending trend 1 supportive BUY directional confirmation - Higher High & Higher Low 1 entry BUY confirmation - 2hr Resistance turned Support Also a future crossover on the RSI indicating a reversal + weaker euro on currency strength. EURUSD entered @2pm GMT entry - 1.1710, SL - 1.695, TP - 1.1755 EUROFUTURES entered @2pm GMT entry - 1.1720, SL - 1.705, TP 1.765
CME:6E1!Long
by JaeUddMck
1
EURUSD SetUp-Market Analysis Areas of Interest and Macroeconomic Context The EUR/USD pair highlights two key technical areas of interest that warrant attention for short- and medium-term trading strategies. With the start of a new month, caution is advised, as initial price movements may involve significant pullbacks toward areas of higher liquidity or relevant support/resistance zones. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates an increase in long positions by large speculators, suggesting a bullish bias in institutional sentiment . This positioning should be evaluated within the context of both technical and fundamental analysis to anticipate potential market movements. Fundamental Factors Influencing Market Sentiment Recent U.S. economic data has had a notable impact on the EUR/USD pair, reinforcing expectations of a weakening U.S. dollar : Weak Economic Data: The Chicago PMI and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index fell short of expectations, fueling speculation about a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Pressure on the Dollar: Recent inflation data, combined with dovish remarks from the Fed, has heightened expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy, weakening the dollar against the euro. EUR/USD Movement: As a result, the pair has approached the upper end of its recent range, driven primarily by dollar weakness. #EURUSD #Forex #MarketAnalysis #Trading #Dollar #Euro #CurrencyMarket #COT
CME:6EU2025Long
by Tarsi_Fx
EUR: Waiting for Clarity in DXY and DirectionLast week, the 6E1! (Euro Futures / EUR/USD) closed with a solid bullish candle, successfully breaking through a key supply zone, signaling strong upward momentum. However, as the new week begins, the market has shifted to bearish pressure, indicating some uncertainty and potential consolidation. The current situation across currency pairs against the USD remains ambiguous. The DXY dollar index shows mixed signals: on one hand, there is an increase in bullish positions among non-commercial traders, while on the other hand, there’s a decrease in bearish bets. Meanwhile, for the EUR and other currencies, non-commercial traders are increasing their bullish positions, suggesting a possible shift toward dollar weakness or euro strength. Despite these mixed signals, the major supply and demand zones highlighted on my charts remain unchanged. Given the conflicting data and the current market volatility, I believe it’s prudent to wait until the end of August before making any significant trading decisions. The upcoming weeks should provide clearer insights into the market’s direction, especially as traders and institutions reassess their positions. For now, I will refrain from opening new trades or considering any currency pairs until the overall trend and the direction of the DXY dollar index become more evident. Patience and careful observation will be key in navigating the upcoming market movements. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
CME:6E1!
by FOREXN1
1
support broken, lower TF potentially joining major =SELL trend## EUR/USD Short Setup - Technical Analysis ### Market Structure Analysis **Key Price Points:** - Point 1-3: Higher high established, confirming bullish momentum - Point 2: Became major support after point 3 exceeded point 1's high - Point 3-4: Price broke below point 2, confirming bearish reversal - Point 3: Now established as major resistance (solid high) - Point 5: Retest of major resistance at point 3 ### Trade Setup **Entry:** 1.1720 (pending confirmation) - Wait for full candle close below this level - Require bearish candle structure for confirmation **Stop Loss:** 1.1785 - Above the double top at points 3 and 5 - Clear invalidation level **Target:** 1.1608 - Next chaos theory zone - Risk/Reward: 2.14 ### Technical Confluences 1. **Market Structure:** Lower highs and lower lows established on 4H and Daily timeframes 2. **RSI:** Price at second standard deviation (overbought zone) 3. **Elliott Wave:** Potential wave 3 completion, expecting wave 4 decline 4. **Chaos Theory Indicator:** 67% probability of reaching lower zone once triggered (based on 2,400 candle sample) 5. **Dow Theory:** Trend alignment across multiple timeframes ### Risk Management - Position Size: 2% of account maximum - Breakeven: Move stop to entry at 1.1700 - Partial Profit: Consider taking 50% at 1.1650 ### Entry Criteria 1. Price must close below 1.1720 (full candle body) 2. Increased volume on breakdown preferred 3. No entry on wicks alone ### Current Status Alert set at 1.1720. Waiting for bearish confirmation before entry. ### Notes - If price reaches 1.1780-1.1790 first, expect potential liquidity sweep before reversal - No trade if proper confirmation doesn't occur - Setup invalidated above 1.1785
CME_MINI:M6E1!Short
by jacesabr_real
**Setup Narrative (educational)**1. **Context Prep:** We tagged the 12 AM bias—watching for a liquidity sweep into London (2–5 AM). Right on cue, the price trapped early movers. 2. **Price Reaction:** That trap sets the stage—when New York opens, price drives the opposite direction. 3. **Sniper Lesson:** Don’t react. Anticipate. Use bias, structure, and frames to position ahead of the move—and let the market run into your trigger. This is *teaching, not calling*. Learn how to align bias + price structure in real time.
CME:6E1!
by Master-Jedi-Trader
Trap Day Example – 12AM Bias, London Trap & New York Silver BullThis schematic illustrates how price action often sets up around key time windows and liquidity pools, independent of the actual news release. • 12AM Candle Bias: The 12AM (NY) hourly candle often sets the directional framework for the day. A red candle can sometimes indicate the opposite bias (bullish) as liquidity is engineered around retail positioning. • London Trap (1AM–5AM): Liquidity is typically built in the early session, where clean-looking structures entice traders to place stops just beyond obvious highs or lows. These stops become fuel later in the session. • Reset Window (5AM–7AM): Price consolidates and repositions, chopping up retail orders. Patience here is essential. • 7:38AM Liquidity Sweep: A sharp move often clears out positions, targeting extreme levels such as the 4th standard deviation (~68 pips in this example). This is not random — it’s part of the day’s liquidity cycle. • 10AM Silver Bullet Zone: A major move frequently coincides with scheduled news events. However, the setup is often already “baked in” to the algorithms well before the announcement, providing a precise time/price confluence for high-probability trades. Key Takeaway: Markets are not driven by randomness. Time, liquidity, and structure work together to engineer traps and sweeps before directional moves unfold. By studying these repeatable cycles — from the London trap to the New York Silver Bullet — traders can better understand how the market truly operates.
CME:6E1!Long
by Master-Jedi-Trader
EURUSD: Potential Bullish liquidity after liqudity grabHello traders here's my point of view about CME_MINI:E71! CMCMARKETS:EURUSD For the past months we've seen massive bullish momentum. The overall trend remains bullish specially if TVC:DXY continue bearish. Yesterday, price retested a solid H4 ORDERBLOCK around the 1.6500 area. This was some sort of liquidity collection mouvement.. Price re-integrated the area leaving places for intraday BUY opportunities. As you can se price now is filling those intraday imabalces/FVGS If we see clearly bearish signs in THE US DOLLAR INDEX DXY by negative correlation EURUUSD can move up. All eyes on today's 20 of august 2025 FOMC meeting!. We are traders, we adapt. if things change the idea will be totally invalidated! Markets might wait for end of the week Jackson Hole Symposium toO. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day.
CME:6E1!Long
by AIRFOREXONE_
EUR: COT Data Indicates Dollar ResilienceThe EURUSD pair closed the previous week with a bullish weekly candle, positioned within the bounds of a significant two-week-old bearish candle. This pattern suggests a potential pause or consolidation phase after a strong downtrend, but traders should remain cautious as the overall trend still bears the mark of the larger bearish candle. Recent COT (Commitment of Traders) data provides additional insights into market sentiment. Retail traders have increased their long positions, indicating a more bullish outlook among individual traders. Conversely, both commercial and non-commercial traders are shifting towards bearish positions, signaling a potential underlying strength in the US dollar and a cautious stance among large market participants. Given these dynamics, there is a high probability that the EURUSD may retest the recent daily supply zone, which has already been touched during the week. If the price moves down from this level, it could signal a continuation of the overall bearish trend, especially considering the COT data's favor towards dollar strength. What are your thoughts on this setup? Do you see a potential reversal, or will the bullish weekly candle lead to further upside? ✅ Please share your thoughts about 6E1! in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
CME:6E1!Short
by FOREXN1
3
Morning Market Brief 15.08.2025TF - W Today is packed with high-impact news, and both France and Italy are observing bank holidays. Ideally, I’d like to see the market provide a clear signal during the session that could indicate the direction for next week’s movement. TF - D Yesterday’s bearish close introduced a new variable in the form of a Rejection Block at 1.17305. This block may serve both as a potential area of interest for sellers and as an initial signal that selling at these price levels is favorable for them. Selling pressure continues. TF - h4 H4 shows quite a lot of changes during the Asian session. 1) An intraday target has appeared in the form of a fractal low inside the buyers’ area of interest at 1.16545. 2) The price is moving in a compressed manner, without impulses, towards a bearish imbalance, which could send the price into the newly formed fractal at 1.16545 — a scenario I described yesterday evening. 3) Considering the formation of the daily Rejection Block, inside it there is an inducement in the form of an H4 fractal (1.17395). In the event of an upward impulse, it could serve both as a profit-taking target and as potential liquidity sufficient to send the price lower, forming a new trading range. TF - h1 The 1H movement is highly compressed, with the price climbing slowly in small candles. The appearance of sellers during the test of the H4 imbalance could send this drawn-out move down to retest the local low.
CME:6E1!Short
by Scythe_
Daily Market Recap 14.08.2025TF - MN The price remains around the monthly fractal, with an untested monthly imbalance lying below. No new data has emerged yet. TF - W Over the past week, the price tested the 0.5% level of the weekly dealing range. If the current price holds within last week’s range, we will form a weekly fractal in discount territory. It is also worth noting that the trendline liquidity, marked by the red arc, is entirely positioned in discount territory, which may indicate low resistance in that area. The potential formation of a weekly fractal low could provide a downside target for shorts, as well as a level that could serve as a potential entry for long trades. TF - D On the daily chart, the market currently appears neutral. After breaking out of the previous range with a sharp drop, a new dealing range was formed. During the test of the weekly range’s discount levels, the price began forming bullish imbalances, then moved in a strong daily order flow, setting new highs after testing daily bullish imbalances. Over the last few days, however, no new bullish imbalances have formed, suggesting that bullish momentum is fading. It’s important to note that we are currently in the middle of a daily bearish imbalance, and today we saw a strong reaction upon testing its upper boundary. Considering these factors, my bias is short towards the potential weekly fractal low, provided the daily candle closes below 1.16425. Such a move would indicate to me that the market has found a seller within this trading range who is ready to sell. TF - h4 Looking at the H4 chart, the picture is slightly different. Despite a deep correction, we remain within the current trading range. There is an area of interest in the form of an imbalance that held the price today. However, there is also an opposing imbalance above, which may limit further upside movement. Theoretically, within the day we could see a test of the upper imbalance, followed by a move down towards the recent local lows, which are located inside a bullish imbalance. Another possible scenario is consolidation during the Asian session, the formation of a 1H fractal, and, upon a reaction to it, the price could start an upward move either towards the H4 imbalance above or to today’s high, which tomorrow will act as the PDH (Previous Day’s High).
CME:6E1!
by Scythe_