TSLA at a Critical Pivot! TSLA at a Critical Pivot! Bounce Coming or Fake Pump Before a Bigger Drop? 🚀⚠️
Alright, TSLA traders… this one is getting interesting.
Based on the weekly, daily, hourly structure AND the GEX map you provided, TSLA is sitting right at a decision zone where institutions will either:
✅ push it toward $435–$450
or
❌ dump it back into the $390–$380 liquidity pocket
Let’s break it down clean and human — like we always do.
🟦 Weekly Timeframe (Big Picture)
TSLA finally broke out of the long consolidation and now pulling back into previous structure.
Key observations:
* Weekly candle rejecting near $475–$500 supply
* Price holding above key weekly support around $410–$417
* Rising trendline still intact
* No major breakdown yet
If the weekly holds above $410, the trend continues bullish.
If it loses $410, weekly structure turns bearish quickly.
🟩 Daily Timeframe
This is where it gets tricky.
Daily chart shows:
* CHoCH + BOS signals around $420
* Strong rejection at daily supply $470–$500
* Retest of demand zone $390–$405
* Price currently hovering in the middle
This daily structure tells me:
TSLA bounced, but it's not out of trouble yet.
We need a clean daily close above $425–$430 to unlock the upside again.
If daily closes below $410, sellers will take control fast.
🟨 1H Timeframe (Trader Zone)
On the 1H:
* Multiple CHoCH/BOS flips
* Price stuck in a range $410–$428
* Weak momentum on the latest bounce
* Overhead supply sitting right above current price
This looks like:
📌 accumulation OR distribution
1H will decide the next move:
✅ Break & hold above $428 = continuation toward $435–$450
❌ Reject $428 and break $410 = drop into $395–$385
🔥 GEX Outlook (Institutional Positioning)
Your GEX chart is very clear:
📈 CALL Walls:
* $428 / $435 / $450 cluster
* Highest positive NET GEX at $410–$420
📉 PUT Walls:
* $390
* $385
* $380 major support
Institutions are:
✅ defending $410–$420
✅ hedged heavily around $435
❌ willing to let price fall toward $390 if $410 fails
This aligns PERFECTLY with the price structure.
🧭 My Thoughts
TSLA looks stronger than NVDA and SPY in the short-term.
This bounce is not random — GEX shows real defense at $410 and buyers stepped in.
However…
If TSLA fails to break above $428 convincingly, this bounce becomes a trap, and that drop toward $390–$385 becomes very likely.
🎯 Trade Levels to Watch
Bullish Scenario
* Entry: above $428
* Target: $435 → $450
* Stop: below $417
Bearish Scenario
* Entry: below $410
* Target: $395 → $385
* Stop: above $423
🚀 Option Thoughts
If trading options:
Calls only make sense above $428
Puts become high conviction below $410
Inside that range = chop risk
✅ Conclusion
TSLA is sitting at the most important zone of the week.
If $428 breaks cleanly → continuation to $450
If $410 breaks → fast flush to $390–$385 liquidity
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
Tesla, Inc. Units Thailand Depositery Receipts Repr 0.01 Sh
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Trade ideas
Tesla downside momentum could extend before any reboundCurrent Price: $402.77
Direction: SHORT
Confidence Level: 62%
Targets:
- T1 = $380.00
- T2 = $368.00
Stop Levels:
- S1 = $410.00
- S2 = $420.00
**Wisdom of Professional Traders:**
The collective insights from multiple professional traders show a consistent short‑term bias to the downside for Tesla, even among those who are bullish longer term. Several traders focused on the $380 area as the first key level to watch, with many citing $368 as the major gap‑fill target for this week. While a few see buying opportunities lower, the weight of commentary points to more near‑term weakness before a sustainable rally sets in.
**Key Insights:**
Here’s what’s driving my view: across the trader community, Tesla is in a clear short‑term downtrend of lower highs and lower lows. Multiple traders marked $398–$400 as an overhead resistance zone with “a lot of supply,” making it hard for price to push higher before testing lower supports. There’s also consensus that any bounce here would likely be a “pump and dump” into resistance before the next leg lower.
Another important observation is that many traders see $380 as the immediate downside target, with $368 as a more aggressive move that fills the open daily gap. Quite a few expect that if the market shows further weakness, these levels could be reached within this week. The short‑term technical picture – failing rallies, resistance holding, and repeated tests of support – keeps me leaning to a short bias.
**Recent Performance:**
Tesla has retreated from highs in the $460s into the low $400s over recent weeks. Last week’s action saw it struggle to hold intraday bounces, closing lower and respecting resistance in the high $390s to $400 range. The stock’s recent inability to follow through on rallies, despite broader market upticks, underlines the pressure sellers are applying.
**Expert Analysis:**
Several traders pointed to the break of a short‑term uptrend late last week, followed by confirmation of fresh downside momentum. $380 was highlighted repeatedly as a heavy buy interest zone – but crucially, that’s also where they expect price to gravitate to in the short term. The $368 gap is seen as a likely magnet if $380 fails to hold. Other market experts tied this weakness to double top patterns and broader tech weakness, adding fundamental headwinds like Bitcoin impairment impacts on Tesla’s net income.
**News Impact:**
While there were mentions of long‑term catalysts like robo‑taxis and updated FSD ratings, these are not expected to influence this week’s price action. Recent headlines about large stake sales by high‑profile investors and Tesla’s exposure to Bitcoin impairments have added a cautious tone. This news flow supports the case for near‑term softness as traders weigh potential earnings impacts.
**Trading Recommendation:**
Here’s my take: With heavy supply above $398–$400 and traders eyeing $380 and $368 as near‑term targets, I see a SHORT setup as the higher‑probability play for this week. A break under $382 could accelerate momentum toward $380 quickly, with $368 in play if selling persists. I’d keep stops above $410 to protect against a squeeze, with $420 as a hard‑fail level for the short thesis. Position sizing should be moderate given the potential for sharp bounces in a volatile name like Tesla.
Tesla (1H) – Post-Distribution Breakdown vs NPC Equilibrium ZoneTesla is currently trading inside a NPC post-distribution compression range after breaking down from the upper volatility structure.
Instead of predicting direction, here’s the statistical positioning based on the NeuroPolynomial Channel:
Current Positioning:
• Price under NPC Core Cluster
• Distance to lower stress band: ~1.4%
• Distance to upper expansion band: ~3.2%
• Compression vs prior impulse: ~0.61
NPC Volatility Map:
• Upper Expansion Zone: +3% to +3.8%
• Core Equilibrium: 400–412 zone
• Lower Rejection Band: −1.4%
• Breakdown Continuation Zone: −2.8% to −3.5%
Interpretation (scenario-based):
– Sustained acceptance above core → structural rebuild attempt
– Rejection at core → continuation inside stress band
– Re-entry into strong-lower → extension zone unlock
This is a volatility structure map, not a prediction model.
Midterm Stock Forecast for TeslaNASDAQ:TSLA at $391 shows weakening technical structure, suggesting a continuation toward $340. H1 trendlines indicate fading bullish pressure. Fundamentals remain mixed: energy storage grows, but auto margins face pressure and competition intensifies. The $340 zone is a key demand area for potential midterm stabilization.
TSLA ... From darling to toxic exThere is nothing to debate.
PWL at 382.78–388.21 must hold, or buyers get steamrolled. We’re trading below the 50-day on the daily, and any strength is likely to be sold into. I hate leaning this bearish, but if there’s going to be a short-term bounce, it *starts* with the PWL holding. With heavy overhead supply near 400, this is not a name where you want to be the early hero.
If the PWL breaks, downside opens to the 200-day near 338 or the beige pocket between 328–336.
Negative headwind:
Forget Musk's latest pay package, his last one could wipe out years of Tesla profits
By Chris Kirkham
www.reuters.com
TESLA: Long Signal Explained
TESLA
- Classic bullish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy TESLA
Entry - 391.16
Stop - 384.56
Take - 403.96
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
TSLA:Truncated 5th at 474 A-Bottom 382 Confirmed-3Scenarios MapTSLA: Truncated 5th at 474 ☠️ A-Bottom 382 Confirmed – 3 Scenarios Mapped: B to 440/460 or Bust? C-Targets 287-367 + Fed Cut Catalyst Dec 9-10:
Tesla's 5-wave impulsive rally from $273 to $474.07 is officially terminated in a classic Truncated 5th Wave pattern – one of the most reliable bearish setups in Elliott Wave theory.
Key Confirmation Signals:
Wave ⑤ high: 474.07 = exact same price as sub-wave (i) of ③ (textbook same-price failure)
Screaming RSI bearish divergence at the top
Volume collapse + SMA20/50 death cross (Sep) → truncation locked in
Current structure: ABC zigzag correction (likely Wave IV of larger cycle or Wave A of bear impulse).
Wave A: 474.07 → 382.78 (0.786 retracement of entire impulse, Nov 14 low)
Wave B: Now underway as platform consolidation post-hammer reversal (Nov 23 low 383.76, RSI oversold confirmed)
-Primary target: 430-440 (0.618 Fib of A) by early Dec
-If breakout 445: Extend to 460 (0.786 Fib, 35% odds – accelerated rally fueled by Fed doves)
MACD/RSI Fuel for B-Wave:
MACD bullish divergence emerging (-3.85 turning up) → Gold cross by Nov end
RSI oversold hammer → Short-term bounce to 410+ expected
3 Scenarios for Wave C (Post-B Top):
| Scenario | Probability | B-Wave High | C-Wave Target | Key Condition |
|-------------------|-------------|-----------------|-----------------|----------------------------------------|
| **Weak B: Deep C** | 50% | 430-440 (Platform Type) | 287-293 (C=1.618×A) | B stalls at 440; Dec FOMC mild cut → Extension from 319 (1.272×A) low |
| **Strong B: Shallow C** | 35% | 445-460 (Accelerated Rally) | 361-367 (C=1.0×A) | Break 445 on Fed fuel; Shallow due to strong rebound |
| **Bullish Invalid: Extended ⑤** | 15% | >485 (Break Secondary Resistance) | 550-600+ (0.618 of Impulse) | Weekly close >485 negates ABC → Wave ⑤ resumes |
Catalysts to Watch:
Dec 9-10 FOMC: Expected 25bp cut (89% odds post-Williams) – Long shadow potential for B acceleration (see chart)
Bear confirm: <380 break → C accelerates to 250 (2.0×A, high-volume 2024 low)
Timeframe: B ends early Dec; C launches mid-Dec, bottoms Jan 2026 (4-6 weeks)
Trade with stops: Long B to 440 (trail below 380); Flip short at B top divergence.
This is not financial advice – DYOR.
TSLA – Downside Extension Followed by Potential Rebound PhaseTesla has continued to slide after its recent peak, with price action forming a deeper corrective leg. The latest reaction suggests a rebound scenario may develop if momentum begins to shift, paving the way for a possible recovery sequence in the coming sessions.
Disclosure: We are part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in our analysis.
TESLA Will Explode! BUY!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for TESLA is below:
The market is trading on 391.16 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 403.74
Recommended Stop Loss - 384.61
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TSLA: Fundamentals Are Collapsing While Valuation Stays in OrbitTesla is trading near multi-month highs… but the fundamentals tell a very different story.
EPS has dropped by 50%, revenue growth has almost stalled, and yet the stock still carries a Forward P/E of 164.
This combination — slowing growth and extreme valuation — looks like the definition of an institutional bubble setup.
🧮 Fundamental Context
Over the past few years, Tesla’s growth has slowed dramatically:
Revenue rose from 31B → 53B → 81B → 96B → 97B — barely any increase.
EPS climbed from 0.2 → 1.6 → 3.6 → 4.3 — and then fell by half.
Quarter-over-quarter metrics remain negative, with no visible recovery trend.
Meanwhile, the Forward P/E of 164 implies double-digit expansion ahead — which clearly isn’t happening.
The fundamentals simply do not justify this kind of valuation.
Right now, Tesla’s numbers resemble the early phase of a valuation compression cycle — where prices eventually catch up with reality.
📉 Technical Structure
Technically, Tesla has been moving in a broad sideways range, forming what looks like a long-term Wave 4 structure.
We’re currently inside the “B” leg, which could already be complete or near completion.
Once that wave ends, the next expected move is a Wave C decline.
Key levels to watch:
📍 Upper resistance zone: $400 – $550
📍 Primary cluster: around $250
📍 Support zone: $150 – $200
The chart shows clear volume concentration around $250 — once that level breaks, the next liquidity pocket sits between $150 and $200.
That’s where a potential bottoming cluster could form before the final upward leg.
⚠️ Market Outlook
While other FANG names maintain solid balance sheets and stable earnings, Tesla’s fundamentals are deteriorating sharply.
Yes, the stock may still see short-term pumps driven by sentiment or Musk’s fan base — but markets always return to fundamentals.
And those fundamentals are pointing downward.
📊 Summary
EPS and revenue both trending lower 📉
Forward P/E at 164 — completely disconnected from growth metrics
Technical range suggests potential decline toward $200–$150
Current price action likely part of a larger corrective structure
Long-term investors should exercise extreme caution ⚠️
Tesla isn’t a short-term “growth story” anymore — it’s a valuation risk story.
Until earnings stabilize and margins recover, this stock looks massively overpriced.
Tesla / Palantir Fractal - 50 Days of identical price action?On oct 7th I suggested that Tesla and Palantir had been in a 'fractal" pattern. Since identifying this pattern, it's been 50 days of identical price action (on the 15 minute timeframe). But this fractal goes back much further in time.
Fractals are a mathmatical anomaly, if you understand linear equations (and believe the market is "random"). All assets are doing the same patterns over and over, on all time frames. You just need to see it for what it is.
May the truth be with you.
TSLA SELL++++ $360-370 to be testedAs I posted last week, and, clearly too early TSLA needs to test the $370 range where it broke out from. I do pat myself on the back for the epic bounce off support at $324.80 that needed to hold to see $426's and TSLA always goes further then we think both ways. We're way overdone and todays reversal shows it. $370's imminent in coming weeks
Tesla Retests Key support Amid a New Lawsuit After Deadly CrashTesla (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:TSLA ) faces renewed scrutiny after a lawsuit was filed over a fatal January 2023 crash in Washington state. According to the complaint, the vehicle “rapidly accelerated” before striking a utility pole and bursting into flames, killing one passenger and severely injuring another. First responders reportedly struggled to access the victims due to the vehicle’s structure and fire behavior, raising questions about safety systems and emergency accessibility.
The lawsuit lands during a period of heightened attention on Tesla’s real-world AI features, including Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (FSD). While the filing does not explicitly blame autonomous systems, it adds pressure to Tesla’s regulatory and legal environment, which remains a critical investor risk factor heading into 2026.
Tesla’s Fundamentals Remain Strong
Despite the legal challenges, Tesla retains a massive market cap near $1.33 trillion and continues scaling its energy and robotics divisions. The company remains profitable, with a strong balance sheet and long-term margin expansion driven by software, AI, and autonomous capabilities. The Optimus humanoid robot program and 4680 battery ramp both strengthen Tesla’s position in the next industrial cycle.
Tesla’s broad lineup—from the Model 3 to the Semi and Cybertruck—supports global delivery growth, while its charging infrastructure partnerships increase ecosystem reach. Fundamentally, Tesla remains one of the strongest players in the EV and AI–mobility sectors.
Technical Outlook: Trendline Retest in Play
From a price-action perspective, Tesla trades around $391, pulling back toward a critical ascending trendline visible on the weekly chart. This trendline has guided Tesla’s recovery since April and remains the key level to watch.
Support:
• $390 trendline
• Major demand at $350
• Long-term support at $250
Resistance:
• $425
• $492 (2025 high)
A strong bounce at the trendline could send TSLA back toward $425 and eventually $492. However, a clean breakdown risks a deeper correction toward the $320 zone.
TSLA Momentum Play: QuantSignals V3 Sees Strong UpsideTSLA | QuantSignals Katy 1M Prediction (2025-11-21)
Current Price: $385.51
Predicted Close: $396.06 (+2.74%)
30-min Target: $393.15 (+1.98%)
Trend: Bullish
Confidence: 75%
Volatility: 27.4%
Trade Signal
Direction: CALL
Entry: $385.51
Target: $393.95
Stop Loss: $379.73
Expected Move: +2.74%
Summary: 1 trade signal generated from 1 successful analysis.
Tesla - Withstanding all weakness!🏹Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) can still break out:
🔎Analysis summary:
Since Tesla was listed on the Nasdaq back in 2013, we witnessed a lot of triangle breakouts. And starting all the way back in 2020, Tesla once again created a bullish triangle. Last month we saw the breakout and this month we have to see the confirmation
📝Levels to watch:
$400
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
Nasdaq 100, Tesla and Apple OutlookWall Street is on the verge of closing lower for a third week for the first time in eight months. I explain why I think there could be further losses ahead, why Tesla (TSLA) is a preferred short setup and why to keep an eye on Apple (AAPL).
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index
Tesla's curious caseTesla has always been a volatile stock but since 2021, it has forever been under corrective wave strcuture. Its not the typical corrective structure where the prices only go down, but it's a combination of large scale Zigzag and inverse Zigzag.
The current corrective wave will end between 320-328 and then again an upmove journey will begin heading towards 733 mark ( exact number to be confirmed once uptrend starts.
Be on the watch out for entering at 325.
QuantSignals V3 TSLA Alert: Strong Bearish MomentumTSLA 1M | QuantSignals Katy | 2025-11-20
Direction: PUT (Bearish)
Confidence: 75%
Current Price: $427.76
Final Target: $411.82 (-3.73%)
30min Target: $419.17 (-2.01%)
Entry: $427.76
Take Profit: $415.01
Stop Loss: $434.18
Volatility: 24.9%
Analysis:
Katy AI predicts steady bearish movement over the month.
Momentum favors downside, with 1M horizon showing consistent decline.
Strong confidence (75%) and moderate volatility suggest high-probability put setup.
Trade Setup & Edge:
Entry aligns with current price at resistance level.
Tight stop limits risk while capturing projected downside.
Short-term 30-min target gives early exit option if quick profit is desired.
⚠️ Risk Warning: Moderate volatility; adjust position size accordingly.
Tesla (TSLA) – Key Levels Tightening Up Ahead on Nov. 20TSLA is coiling inside a clean rising wedge on the 1H and 15M charts. Price is grinding toward the apex with buyers slowly stepping in, but sellers are still defending the 410–415 zone. This tension usually leads to a breakout move, up or down, depending on how the opening momentum comes in.
Tomorrow, traders will be watching TSLA because it’s sitting right at the intersection of trendline pressure + GEX walls — perfect setup for volatility.
1. 1H Timeframe – Bigger Picture
* TSLA is trapped between 395 support and 410–415 resistance.
* The rising wedge support is doing its job. Every dip into 395–398 gets bought.
* If TSLA clears 415, it can quickly push toward 422–425, then 430.
* If it rejects again, the wedge breaks down toward 400, then 390.
What matters:
This structure is tight. A move outside the wedge tomorrow will set direction for the next 2–3 sessions.
2. 15M Timeframe – Intraday Setup
* Strong BOS + CHoCH stack that reversed the downtrend earlier today.
* Price is now retesting the mid-range around 410.
* Bears are active at 410.30–411.50 (multiple rejections).
* Bulls defending the 401–402 block and 398–400 FVG zone.
If buyers hold 401–402:
TSLA can attempt 415 → 422.
If sellers break 398:
Expect a fast unwind toward 390–392.
The 15M gives the intraday trigger for the bigger 1H structure.
3. GEX / Options Sentiment – Confirms the Levels
This is the clean part:
* Highest positive GEX resistance at 422–425.
Options dealers hedge aggressively there → hard ceiling unless volume comes in.
* 410 is the HVL zone — right where price is stuck.
This level often acts like a magnet and chop zone.
* Below price, 400 / 395 / 390 are stacked with negative GEX →
this acts like put support. Traders love to take premium here.
What this means:
GEX supports the same ranges the chart shows:
* Above 415 → clear air pockets toward 422–425.
* Below 400 → air pocket toward 390.
Trading Outlook for Nov 20
Bullish Scenario
* Needs to reclaim 415 with strength.
* First target: 422
* Next target: 425–430
* Momentum confirmation: volume spike + 15M BOS continuation.
Bearish Scenario
* Lose 398–400, preferably on a breakdown during first 15–30 minutes.
* Target: 390–392
* Next: 382 (deep range sweep)
Neutral / Range
* If price sits between 402–410, expect chop.
* This is where most retail gets trapped.
Probability Summary (Not Signals)
* Breakout above 415: moderate probability if NASDAQ is strong.
* Reject & fade into 400: high probability if SPY pulls back.
* Chop 402–410: base case until macro gives direction.
Final Note
Everything lines up cleanly across 1H, 15M, and GEX — the exact setup traders search for before a trend day. TSLA will be heavily watched tomorrow because whichever side wins this 410 battle will control the next big move.
Tesla Is Moving Toward a Key Support ZoneHello everyone, Tesla is entering a sensitive phase as the strong rally from 310 USD to 406 USD over the past two months begins to lose momentum. The recent decline is not just a normal pullback; the repeated appearance of red FVGs shows that buying pressure is fading while sellers are gradually taking control again. At the moment, the 401 USD level is acting as the nearest support. If this area fails to hold, Tesla could slide further toward 395 USD — a zone with green FVGs and heavy volume where strong buying previously pushed the price upward.
On the fundamental side, the news flow isn’t helping. Tesla’s Q3/2025 report showed adjusted profits dropping nearly 29% even though revenue still grew around 12%, indicating that operational efficiency is weaker than expected. Rising costs, lower income from regulatory credits, and massive investments in AI and robotics continue to squeeze margins. At the same time, competition from Chinese and European EV manufacturers is intensifying, putting additional pressure on Tesla’s future market share. With the broader tech market shifting toward a risk-off mood, growth stocks are taking heavier hits — and Tesla is clearly feeling that weight.
Given both technical structure and market sentiment, the most reasonable scenario right now is a continued move down into the 395 USD support zone to test liquidity and gauge the market’s reaction. This level remains a strong technical area and could trigger a meaningful bounce if buyers step in. However, if 395 USD breaks under negative news or persistent outflows from growth assets, the decline could extend toward 385–380 USD. On the flip side, if a major positive catalyst appears — such as notable progress in robotaxi development, better margins, or a breakthrough in battery technology — the 405–410 USD region would be the first recovery target.
For now, Tesla is standing at a “pivot zone” — a place where the market will soon reveal whether this is just a pause before another upward leg, or the beginning of a deeper corrective cycle.






















