TSLA Oct. 9 — Bulls Defending $430 Zone, Eyeing Break Above $444Tesla (TSLA) has been forming a constructive base near the $430 zone after reclaiming momentum from its recent dip. On the 15-minute chart, structure shows a clean BOS (Break of Structure) followed by a minor CHoCH around $437–$438 — indicating consolidation before a possible continuation move. The ascending intraday trendline remains intact, and price is currently holding above short-term liquidity levels.
MACD is curling upward again with momentum building, while the Stoch RSI has reset near the mid-zone and looks ready to push higher — signs that a bullish continuation could resume if TSLA maintains above $433.
On the 1-hour chart, the key HVL sits around $425, which also aligns with gamma support. Above, there’s a visible stack of gamma resistance layers between $442.5 and $452.5, topped by a major call wall near $457.5–$460. This range defines the next battleground for directional momentum.
Support and Resistance Levels:
* Immediate Resistance: $441.33 → $444.0
* Major Resistance (Gamma Wall): $452.5 → $457.5
* Immediate Support: $433.09 → $430.0
* Key Support Zone: $425 → $422
GEX & Options Sentiment (1H GEX Chart):
* The highest positive Call Gamma lies between $444–$457.5, suggesting an upside magnet if TSLA maintains strength.
* Strong Put Support sits at $425–$420, reinforcing the bullish floor from the recent rebound.
* IVR is low (27) and Calls dominate at 62%, indicating bullish skew but with room for volatility expansion if breakout volume increases.
* Gamma exposure shows positive slope above $440, meaning dealer hedging could amplify upside moves once that zone clears.
Trade Scenarios:
Bullish Setup:
* Entry: Above $441.5 breakout confirmation
* Target 1: $448
* Target 2: $452.5
* Stop-Loss: Below $432
* Rationale: Holding above $433 with bullish MACD and rising GEX bias confirms continuation toward $450 zone.
Bearish Setup:
* Entry: Below $430 breakdown
* Target 1: $425
* Target 2: $420
* Stop-Loss: Above $435
* Rationale: A failed retest at $438–$440 with divergence could trigger a short-term retrace to retest gamma support.
TSLA is in a critical consolidation phase. A break above $441.5 could trigger a bullish leg toward $450+, while losing $430 could open a short-term fade to $425. Bulls are defending key ground — but watch for volume confirmation before entering.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
If anyone needs me to TA any stock, PM me.
Trade ideas
TESLA LONGSLooking for price to sell off to price low of 152. If price shows bullish price action after liquidating low ( MSS+ retracement into FVG or ICT Breaker) i will be buying in. Alternative setup would be the same if price decides to sell off to the marked 2023 low.
Initial price targets will be Highs marked at 300$.
This happened today TSLA 453.25 Bullish entry above 456.00/460.00 if the open is in this area. If the open is below 452.00, we can expect this to be the 440.00 area with a possible rebound, providing an upside opportunity. If the 440.00 level is lost, we can only enter bearishly below 436.00/432.00 (a possible downside target of 419.00) (a possible upside target of 488.54)
www.tradingview.com
This happened today TSLA 453.25www.tradingview.com
Bullish entry above 456.00/460.00 if the open is in this area. If the open is below 452.00, we can expect this to be the 440.00 area with a possible rebound, providing an upside opportunity. If the 440.00 level is lost, we can only enter bearishly below 436.00/432.00 (a possible downside target of 419.00) (a possible upside target of 488.54)
$TSLA - possible move pre product launchTSLA - Stock moving higher pre product launch tomorrow. Seeing multiple call buyer coming in as well. Stock is in a triangle pattern on the 4 hour time frame bouncing off bottom of the channel. Stock has top of the channel is at $470. bigger move about that level. Stock is decent at the indicator level.
Tesla Approaching Key Resistance: Time to Position for a BreakouCurrent Price: $429.83
Direction: LONG
Targets:
- T1 = $445.50
- T2 = $460.00
Stop Levels:
- S1 = $420.00
- S2 = $410.00
**Wisdom of Professional Traders:**
This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in Tesla.
**Key Insights:**
Tesla continues to dominate the EV (electric vehicle) market with innovations in autonomous driving and battery technology. Analysts are focusing on the recent announcements about significant manufacturing cost reductions and Tesla's newly introduced Cybertruck deliveries, which are expected in Q4 2025. These developments solidify its position as a leader and provide a catalyst for improving margins. Furthermore, the continued expansion into the energy storage market will diversify revenue streams, offering resilience to economic variations.
From a technical perspective, Tesla is approaching a critical resistance level near $435. If broken, this level could trigger a significant upward momentum as bullish sentiment builds. The recent holding of support above $420 suggests strong institutional confidence in Tesla’s upward potential.
**Recent Performance:**
Tesla’s stock has risen approximately 15% over the last three months, recovering from a dip earlier this year when macroeconomic uncertainty temporarily pressured high-growth tech firms. The stock has shown consistent strength as it rebounded from the $380 level after weaker-than-expected Q2 earnings but has since been buoyed by a positive outlook for Q4. Tesla has seen increased volume in recent weeks, signaling growing trader attention.
**Expert Analysis:**
Many equity analysts remain bullish on Tesla's mid-term trajectory. The company’s recent Q3 earnings report (released last month) revealed impressive year-over-year growth in energy division revenues, while automotive gross margins remained steady despite pricing pressures in China. Technical strategists view the current consolidation just below $435 as preparation for the next leg upwards. Tesla's RSI (Relative Strength Index) remains below overbought levels, leaving room for additional bullish momentum.
**News Impact:**
The announcement of Tesla's advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology has renewed market interest. Achieving regulatory approval for autonomous driving in key markets like Europe and the U.S. could dramatically expand Tesla's total addressable market. Meanwhile, Elon Musk’s comments on Tesla’s potential new factory locations have reignited speculation about the company’s growth strategy, fueling optimism among investors.
**Trading Recommendation:**
Given Tesla’s strong fundamentals, positive technical setup, and upside potential, initiating a long position at current levels may lead to substantial gains. Traders should watch for a break above $435, which could pave the way for a move to $445.50 (T1) and possibly $460 (T2). Use stops at $420 (S1) and $410 (S2) to manage downside risk effectively. Tesla's position as a market leader, combined with its technical momentum, makes this an attractive opportunity for the current trading window.
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TSLA Testing Critical Support — Will Bulls Reclaim? Oct. 6⚡️
Market Context & Overview (15-Min Chart)
TSLA has been under steady selling pressure, sliding from the $446–450 resistance zone toward the $416–420 support. The 15-minute chart reveals a clear short-term downtrend, marked by a descending trendline and a series of lower highs. However, buyers finally showed signs of life late Friday, creating a rebound attempt above $425 — a minor but notable shift in momentum.
The MACD histogram has turned positive, and the blue line has crossed over the red, suggesting early bullish momentum building up after a short-term exhaustion. The Stoch RSI has curled upward from oversold territory, hinting that the stock may be setting up for a relief bounce if the intraday trendline breaks cleanly above $432–$435.
GEX Confirmation (1H Chart Insight)
The 1-hour GEX (Gamma Exposure) chart adds an important institutional perspective. The highest positive NET GEX sits between $446–$452, aligning with the 2nd and 3rd CALL walls — a significant resistance area where dealer hedging can dampen upside movement unless a strong breakout occurs.
On the downside, heavy PUT walls and support zones rest around $416–$405, reinforcing this as the critical defense zone for bulls. If price holds above $416 early this week, a short-term reversal toward $440+ becomes highly probable as option dealers shift their delta hedging upward.
IVR remains moderate (26.7), with CALL positioning at 62.9%, suggesting sentiment still leans bullish, though not extreme.
Trade Scenarios (for This Week)
Bullish Case:
If TSLA breaks and sustains above $435, expect momentum to accelerate toward $446, and possibly $452, where the next CALL wall sits.
* Entry: Above 435 confirmation
* Target 1: 446
* Target 2: 452
* Stop-Loss: Below 425
Bearish Case:
If price fails to reclaim 435 and breaks back below $420, sellers could retest $416 and possibly sweep toward $405, which is the major PUT support level on GEX.
* Entry: Below 420
* Target 1: 416
* Target 2: 405
* Stop-Loss: Above 430
Options Insight
Given the GEX structure, short-term calls near 430–440 could benefit from a quick bounce play if momentum continues early in the week. Conversely, puts near 420 become favorable only if TSLA fails to break the descending trendline. A balanced gamma landscape this week may create a “whipsaw” environment, so avoid chasing extremes — trade confirmation, not prediction.
My Thoughts: This setup feels like a “pressure build” zone — bears losing momentum but bulls not yet commanding control. A breakout from the descending trendline will likely dictate the week’s tone. The key is whether TSLA can convert $430–$435 into support. A sustained hold above that could quickly trigger gamma-driven buying back toward the mid-$440s.
If it rejects again and volume fades, the PUT side could reload, making $416 the final line before a larger flush. Watch that MACD and Stoch RSI cross — they’re early tells of rotation strength.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own due diligence and manage risk responsibly before trading.
TSLA - Tesla - Possible Pull-Back to 400 or 365Hello Everyone , Followers
Tesla is the second one that i would like to mention today.
It hit the Resistance level of 451 and then it did not achive to break this level.
Now i am expecting 2 possible scenario
Yellow pattern : pull back till 400 and get power from this level and try to break 451 again.
Or Red Pattern : pull back till 365 then get support from trend line and go up again and try to break 451.
If it breaks the 451 then next station is 515 - 516 .
All in all , i am expecting the Pull-back next week and you could follow the price levels that you can see in Chart. I am neutral in Tesla for the time being.
This is just my thinking and it is not invesment suggestion , please do not make any decision with my anaylsis.
Have a lovely Sunday to all.
Smart Money Support/Resistance + ATAI Volume Analysis —PracticalApplication
When these two indicators work together — Smart Money Support/Resistance (Lite) and ATAI Volume Analysis with Price Action — the chart begins to speak a clearer language: one defines where the reaction zones form, and the other explains what happens inside them. The purpose is not prediction but understanding the balance between smart money pressure and retail momentum.
1. Parameter Alignment
On the right side of the chart, the green info panel confirms that both indicators share identical configurations. In this example, the lookback period is set to 52, chosen deliberately because it must be smaller than the total number of LTF coverage bars (65). For the Smart Money Support/Resistance indicator, the projection is set to 26 — extending the detected zones forward without adding excessive visual noise. This alignment is crucial; mismatched parameters can desynchronize volume readings and structural boundaries.
2. Reading the Chart
In this sample chart, the upper red area represents a Smart Money resistance zone — a region of concentrated selling pressure detected from lower timeframe volume. Simultaneously, ATAI Volume Analysis signals an Overbought (6/7) condition, meaning multiple oscillators confirm exhaustion while seller volume (S.Max) begins to outweigh buyer volume (B.Min). This overlap suggests that liquidity has shifted and the prior bullish impulse is weakening. From here, price may consolidate within the zone or initiate a structured retracement toward the blue support area, previously defined by accumulation volume. The red projected path simply visualizes one potential structural scenario; it is not a prediction or trade signal.
3. Broader Context
This example serves only as a demonstration of how these two tools interact when properly tuned. Different assets and timeframes naturally yield unique structures and behaviors, yet the principle remains consistent: define the territory first with Smart Money Support/Resistance, then interpret market behavior within it using ATAI Volume Analysis.
This content is for educational purposes only — not financial advice. User feedback and practical observations play a key role in refining future versions of both indicators.
$TSLA — Structural Forecast + Macro & Catalysts ContextNASDAQ:TSLA – Macro, Technicals & Institutional Confluence ⚙️
📍 Current Price: $429.83
📊 Timeframe: 1D
🧠 Model Context: VolanX Institutional Forecast v2.3
Technical Setup
Tesla has been moving inside a well-defined ascending channel, currently testing the upper boundary near $460–$470, consistent with a premium liquidity sweep.
Price is slightly below its 10-day SMA ($437.99) but remains well above the 50-day ($363.66) and 200-day ($335.19) — confirming a strong medium-term trend.
RSI (~59–60) cooled off from overbought levels, suggesting a healthy pause rather than reversal.
The near-term risk is a retracement to the equilibrium zone ($414–$376), matching structural and moving-average support.
Macro & Catalysts
EV Demand Pulse: Q3 deliveries boosted by expiring U.S. EV tax credit — short-term tailwind but may front-load demand.
Robotaxi & FSD Expansion: Pilot rollout in Austin marks long-term disruption potential, but regulatory friction remains.
Next-Gen Platform: New low-cost “Cybercab / Model 2” architecture expected to reshape Tesla’s cost curve into 2026.
Competition & Margins: BYD, NIO, and European EV makers pressing pricing power; tariff impacts remain a headwind.
Macro Headwinds: Higher rates and policy uncertainty could compress valuations in growth sectors.
Institutional View (VolanX DSS)
Short-term bias: Controlled pullback to equilibrium (414–376).
Medium term: Reaccumulation phase as institutions rebalance.
Long term: Expansion target near $514+ once liquidity resets and RSI re-enters strength above 60.
“My models can project structure — not human emotion.
If fear overshoots $414, it may mark the next institutional entry before expansion.”
🧠 Structure always rebalances. Emotion never does.
#TSLA #VolanX #SmartMoney #AITrading #LiquidityZones #Macro #FSD #MarketStructure #TechnicalAnalysis
TSLA - False breakout?TSLA back in the april channel.
In this market everything is anchored from low of April I feel and I have drawn a vwap band from the April lows which spans from 316-333 which can be the next bounce zone in case price pulls back , this is where TSLA made base before the next leg up.
Most likely price may revisit $400 area to gap fill and also has a anchored vwap from last swing low around 405.
So far seems like a false breakout from the channel and volume has really picked up to the downside in recent days. New base can be formed around 400 mark if thing stabalize for next leg up in coming days, lets see as its tsla.
For more chart requests please ping me on X - vickg81.
TSLA: Last chance under $500, $400Nice run up. We're still in a overall bull market, which Tesla has only started becoming a part of.
We could see a gap fill (seen on the daily and weekly chart) at ~$395. Potentially even a retracement to ~$350.
However, we'll eventually see the stock above 600 in the next year or more. Don't know when.... Could ltake more time, but I think the "more affordable" Model Y will be the first catalyst before any Robotaxi revenue comes in.
Strategically it makes sense to release the more affordable EV after the tax credits go away. No other EV manufacturer OR legacy auto company can produce and sell vehicles as cheaply as Tesla without it.
Haters truly will hate it.
TSLA Roadmap: $563 ABCD Compl → Bat Harmonic → $631 Three-DriveTesla (TSLA) appears to be completing its final impulsive wave toward the $563 region, which also aligns with the D point completion of the ABCD harmonic pattern.
Once this move is finished, the expectation is for a corrective phase that forms a Bat harmonic. This retracement would also work to fill in the untested gaps left behind during the recent rally, with a potential bottom around the 78.6% Fibonacci level.
From there, the next bullish leg could initiate, targeting the 127.2% extension at $631. This move would not only confirm the harmonic reversal but also complete a larger Three-Drive pattern that originates from the initial ABCD structure.
Key Levels to Watch:
ABCD Harmonic D point: ~$563
Bat Harmonic completion zone: ~78.6% retracement
Next rally target: $631 (127.2% extension, Three-Drive pattern confirmation)
Invalidation Scenarios:
A clean breakout above $563 without corrective rejection would invalidate the Bat harmonic setup and suggest an extended bullish run.
A failure to hold above ~$367 (channel/structure support) would weaken the harmonic roadmap and risk a deeper bearish continuation instead of a Three-Drive completion.
This roadmap suggests a critical short-term top before a deeper correction sets the stage for a much larger rally.
TSLA Elliott Wave Count with ABC Harmonic or Flat Corrective Tesla (TSLA) is forming a potential Wave 4 correction that aligns with an ABC harmonic structure. Price action suggests a possible deeper retracement into the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci support zone (436–449 area) before resuming its larger uptrend.
If Wave 4 completes near the harmonic “D” zone (highlighted support box), the next leg higher could target the 1.236–1.414 Fibonacci extensions around 488–501, in line with Wave 5 projection.
Key levels to watch:
Support: 436.9 (0.618 retrace), 425 psychological, 397 strong support.
Resistance: 444.7, 470.8 (previous high), 501–505 (Wave 5 target).
Bullish scenario: Wave 4 completes soon, leading to a strong Wave 5 breakout towards 500+.
Bearish scenario: Breakdown below 425–397 support could invalidate the bullish count and extend correction lower.
The other possibility is that it is actually unfolding a flat correction in Wave 4 after completing Wave 3 near the recent high. The structure suggests price may continue to consolidate within the corrective channel before setting up the next impulse leg.
Bullish scenario: Flat correction completes, setting the stage for Wave 5 rally toward 490–505.
Bearish scenario: Breakdown below 397 invalidates the bullish count and signals deeper retracement.
$TSLA – 15m Downtrend Channel📊 NASDAQ:TSLA – 15m Downtrend Channel
Price stuck in a descending channel, now consolidating around 429. Short-term candles showing a pause, but momentum still bearish.
🔽 Bearish Path (favored):
Rejection below 433–434 fib zone keeps pressure down.
Downside targets:
424.7 (fib 1.0)
419–416 zone
Major magnet: 411 (fib 1.618 extension).
🔼 Bullish Path:
Breakout above 434 trendline → relief bounce possible.
Next upside checkpoints: 436 / 439 / 443.
⚖️ Summary:
Trend still bearish until 434+ reclaimed.
411 remains key downside liquidity level.
TSLA eyes on $409.56: Golden Genesis fib to hold "High Ground"TSLA has been surging based on various news.
Now retracing towards a Genesis fib at $409.56
Clean bounce would indicate very strong trend.
Golden Genesis fibs are important milestones.
High gravity fibs can capture price into orbit.
Expect consolidation around it then sling shot.
.
Previous analysis that caught a PERFECT BOTTOM:
Hit BOOST and FOLLOW for more such PRECISE and TIMELY charts.
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Tesla (TSLA) – RSI Signals New Bull Cycle, Not Near the TopTechnical View: Trend intact. Momentum constructive. Cycle still maturing. The RSI roadmap suggests the story is far from over — and the most explosive phase may still lie ahead.
Summary:
Back in April , we identified the $270–$320 region as a decisive long-term support zone — a confluence of the 0.382–0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels and the lower boundary of Tesla’s decade-long rising channel. That analysis has played out perfectly: TSLA retested this zone, built a solid base, and resumed its uptrend.
Today, with the stock trading above $430 and advancing toward the channel median — already within proximity of the next resistance zone around $480–$500 — the most powerful signal comes from momentum rather than price. The monthly RSI tells us something crucial: we are not near a cycle top. In fact, historical patterns suggest Tesla is entering the expansion phase of a new multi-year bull cycle , with much higher prices still ahead.
RSI and Market Cycles: What History Tells Us
Tesla’s two previous major bull markets — in 2013–2014 and 2019–2021 — followed a remarkably similar script before topping out:
The first euphoric peak of each cycle coincided with a monthly RSI above 90 , not in the middle of the channel but as price pushed into — and slightly above — the upper boundary.
After that first RSI > 90 event, the stock posted two higher highs with lower RSI peaks , a textbook sign of momentum exhaustion (bearish divergence).
The result each time: a sharp correction of 45–75% .
Today, RSI sits near 56 — nowhere close to overbought extremes. This strongly implies that Tesla is still in the mid-cycle expansion stage — a phase historically associated with sustained institutional accumulation, accelerating price gains, and multiple expansion.
Even more importantly, if history repeats, RSI > 90 will not occur until price reaches the upper boundary or slightly breaks above it . Based on current channel geometry, that implies a potential first euphoric peak in the $1,200–$1,600 range — far above where the stock trades today.
My Prediction and Trade Idea
I believe Tesla is now in the second phase of a new multi-year bull cycle, likely playing out over the next 18–30 months . The technical setup — price structure, channel dynamics, and RSI behaviour — all point to continued upside.
My base-case roadmap:
Near-term: Tesla approaches the $480–$500 resistance area (upper half of the channel) in the coming months.
Mid-term: A breakout above $500 could trigger a sustained expansion leg toward $650–$700.
Late-cycle: As momentum peaks and RSI nears 90, price could accelerate into the $1,200–$1,600 zone — the area historically associated with euphoric tops.
For long-term investors and swing traders, the current risk-reward profile remains compelling. As long as Tesla holds above the $320 accumulation zone, the path of least resistance remains higher.
Profit Targets and Stop Loss
First Target : $480–$500 (upper half of the channel)
Second Target : $650–$700 (mid-cycle breakout extension)
Third Target : $1,200–$1,600 (historical RSI > 90 / euphoric top zone)
Stop-Loss Strategy:
A sustained monthly close below $320 would invalidate the mid-cycle thesis and suggest a deeper corrective structure. For traders, this remains the technical “line in the sand.”
Risks to Consider
While the technical backdrop is bullish, several risks could challenge this thesis:
Macro Shifts : Higher-for-longer rates or a global recession could compress growth multiples.
Execution Risk : Delays in autonomy, robotics, or the energy business could dampen investor enthusiasm.
Valuation Pressure : Tesla’s premium valuation makes it sensitive to changes in growth expectations.
Momentum Signals : If RSI fails to advance significantly during the next leg higher, it may signal internal weakness and an earlier-than-expected cycle peak.
Conclusion
Tesla’s long-term uptrend remains robust, key support has held, and momentum indicators show we are still early in a powerful new bull cycle. Historical RSI behaviour strongly suggests that the first euphoric phase — where RSI exceeds 90 and a true cycle top begins to form — will occur at much higher levels , likely $1,200–$1,600 .
Until then, price action, structure, and momentum all point to continued appreciation. As long as support holds above $320, the base-case scenario is clear: Tesla’s next major move is higher — and the market is still writing the early chapters of this bull cycle .
TSLA At a Crossroads: Bounce or Breakdown for Oct 3? Intraday Technical Outlook (15m Chart)
Tesla (TSLA) saw a sharp selloff, sliding from the mid-$470s to close near $439.35. On the 15-minute chart, the structure is now hugging a descending support line:
* MACD: Still deep in bearish territory but showing early signs of momentum cooling as histogram bars lighten.
* Stoch RSI: Reset from extreme oversold levels, suggesting potential for a relief bounce.
* Key Levels: Immediate support rests around $435–432, with a breakdown exposing $425–420. On the upside, first resistance is $445, followed by a more critical level at $452.5.
Intraday takeaway: Short-term traders should watch if TSLA holds above $435. A sustained bounce can spark a retrace to $445–452, while failure risks another leg lower toward $425.
Options Sentiment & GEX Outlook (1H Chart)
The 1-hour GEX map paints a decisive risk zone for tomorrow’s trade:
* Gamma Walls:
* $452.5–460: Strong call resistance cluster, where sellers likely re-emerge.
* $439.5: Key gamma pivot — trading below this opens up bearish flows.
* $432 / $425 / $420: Heavy put walls acting as magnets if weakness persists.
* Implications:
* Holding above $439.5 can squeeze shorts toward $445–452.5, offering upside for quick calls.
* Losing $435 confirms dealer hedging pressure lower, opening room to $425–420, favoring puts.
* Volatility Context: IVR at 26.9 vs IVx avg 65.2 shows premiums are mid-range but still elevated. This means intraday traders may prefer spreads over outright calls/puts to balance risk/reward.
My Thoughts & Recommendation
For Oct 3 trading, Tesla is sitting right at a critical gamma pivot.
* Intraday (scalping/trading): Look for a bounce play off $435, with upside targets at $445–452 if momentum aligns. A breakdown below $432 favors continuation toward $425–420.
* Options trading (swing/0DTE): Call positions only make sense above $439.5, with tight stops and targets capped near $452. Put strategies (vertical spreads or debit puts) look stronger if price fails at $439.5 and rolls back toward $425.
Bias heading into Oct 3: Cautiously bearish unless $439.5 is reclaimed with volume.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage risk before trading.