TSLA Plunging? The Fake Rebound Before the Real Crash!Tesla (TSLA) is entering a challenging phase as a wave of negative news hits from both fundamental and technical sides. Sales in China — Tesla’s second-largest market — have dropped to their lowest level in three years , sparking fears that real demand for EVs is cooling. At the same time, Elon Musk’s massive $1 trillion compensation package has raised concerns among investors who believe Tesla’s current valuation far exceeds its actual profit potential.
On the daily chart, TSLA is showing clear signs of weakness after an extended uptrend. The price is now testing the medium-term ascending trendline around the $430 zone . If buying pressure fails to hold this level, there’s a strong chance the price will break the trendline and enter a deeper correction phase .
In the short term, Tesla could continue to drop toward the $400 area , where strong support and the Ichimoku cloud base converge. Any rebounds, especially near the $450 resistance zone, should be viewed as opportunities for sellers to re-enter rather than signs of recovery.
Trade ideas
Tesla - Here comes the third breakout!🚀Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) is finally breaking out:
🔎Analysis summary:
For the past four years, Tesla has been trading in a very clear ascending triangle pattern. But just last month, we finally saw the expected bullish triangle breakout. Considering all of the previous triangle breakouts, Tesla is setting up for another parabolic rally soon.
📝Levels to watch:
$450
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
Musk Could Earn a Trillion: How Are Tesla (TSLA) Shares ReactingMusk Could Earn a Trillion: How Are Tesla (TSLA) Shares Reacting?
According to media reports, earlier this month Tesla shareholders approved a new 10-year compensation package for Elon Musk worth up to $1 trillion. But is this good or bad news for TSLA shares?
→ On the plus side, Musk is now firmly “tied” to the company and highly motivated to achieve extraordinary goals — such as reaching a market capitalisation of $8.5 trillion and launching mass production of Optimus robots.
→ On the downside, the price of this decision could be high. The targets appear almost fantastical, and their achievement would mean dilution of existing shareholders’ stakes through the issuance of new options.
As a result, Tesla’s share price has been fluctuating, reflecting market indecision and consolidating after the news. A closer look at the TSLA chart offers clues as to what may happen next.
Technical Analysis of TSLA
From a bullish perspective, Tesla’s share price remains within an upward-sloping trend channel, where:
→ the median line is showing signs of acting as support;
→ the sharp rally in September formed a demand zone, where an imbalance between buyers and sellers triggered a strong move higher — the upper boundary of this channel, around the psychological $400 mark, could act as a support level going forward.
From a bearish point of view, the key barrier remains the current all-time high, which continues to cap the ongoing rally (roughly +100% from this year’s low).
Given these factors, it is reasonable to assume that TSLA is currently in a consolidation phase. The situation could eventually resolve in favour of the bulls if the price holds the lower boundary of the channel — as seen previously, when a similar consolidation period preceded a breakout above the $360 resistance level.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
TSLA Catalysts Ranking: Q1 2026 Outlook PT 600 USD________________________________________
TSLA: Updated Outlook (Nov-2025)
Here's an updated/revised outlook for TSLA including all the primary
catalyst ranking and analyst ratings and overview of latest developments
this was updated for Q1 2026 with all the viable market data.
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🤖 1) Autonomous & Robotaxi Execution — 9.2/10 (↑)
• What changed: Tesla’s invite-only Austin robotaxi pilot kept running through the summer; Tesla also says it launched a Bay Area ride-hailing service using Robotaxi tech (Q3 deck). FSD v14 (Supervised) began rolling out in Oct with broader model upgrades; Tesla claims billions of supervised miles and AI training capacity lifted to ~81k H100-equivalents.
• Offsetting risk: NHTSA opened a fresh probe (Oct-2025) into ~2.9M Teslas over traffic-safety violations when using FSD; investigation cites 58 reports incl. crashes/injuries.
• Why the bump: Real pilots in two metros + visible AI scale-up keep autonomy the center of the bull case—even with elevated regulatory risk.
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🌍 2) EV Demand & Geographic Mix — 8.6/10 (↘ )
• What changed: Q3-25 delivered record vehicles and record energy storage deployments, with record revenue and near-record free cash flow. Still, we’re past the U.S. tax-credit pull-forward and China/Europe pricing remains competitive.
• Read-through: Momentum into Q4 looks better than 1H-25, but regional price discipline and mix will matter.
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💸 3) U.S. EV Tax Credits & Incentives — 6.0/10 (↘)
• What changed: Federal new/used EV credits ended for vehicles acquired after Sept 30, 2025 under OBBB. Buyers can still qualify if a binding contract + payment was made by 9/30 and the car is placed in service later (“time-of-sale” reporting). This creates a limited after-deadline tail into late ’25/early ’26 but the program has sunset for new acquisitions.
• Implication: Pull-forward demand helped Q3; near-term becomes tougher without the credit.
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📉 4) Rates & Credit Conditions — 6.5/10 (↔)
• Rate-cut expectations have eased financing costs M/M, but absolute affordability still binds EV uptake. (Macro-sensitive; no single decisive print.)
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🎯 5) Affordable Model / Next-Gen Platform — 8.0/10 (↔)
• Q3 deck emphasized Model 3/Y “Standard” variants to expand entry price points; true next-gen remains staged, with execution risk.
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🔋 6) Battery Cost & Margin Levers — 8.3/10 (↑)
• What changed: Q3 total GAAP GM improved vs 1H; energy revenue +44% YoY; free cash flow ~$4.0B. Scale/learning and supply-chain localization called out.
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⚡ 7) Energy, AI & Optimus Optionality — 8.7/10 (↑)
• Record storage deployments, Megapack 3 / Megablock unveiled; expanding AI inference/training and a U.S. semi-conductor deal noted. This is the clearest re-rating vector beyond autos.
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🛡️ 8) Safety, Regulatory & Governance Risk — 7.5/10 (risk) (↑ risk)
• New NHTSA probe into FSD reporting/behavior escalates headline risk; audit scrutiny persists. Interpret higher score here as more material risk to multiple.
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🚩 9) Competition & Global Share — 6.2/10 (↔)
• Competitive intensity in China/EU remains high; Q3 execution improved but pricing power still contested.
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🌐 10) Macro & Trade/Policy — 6.5/10 (↑)
• Policy shifts (e.g., OBBB tax-credit sunset; tariff/trade uncertainty) remain a swing factor for cost & demand corridors.
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✅ 11) Commodities/Inputs — 5.5/10 (↔)
• Mixed moves across lithium/nickel; no single driver eclipses execution/AI narrative near term.
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Updated Catalyst Scorecard (ranked by impact)
1. Autonomous & Robotaxi Execution — 9.2
2. Energy, AI & Optimus Optionality — 8.7
3. EV Demand & Geographic Mix — 8.6
4. Battery Cost & Margin Levers — 8.3
5. Affordable Model / Next-Gen — 8.0
6. U.S. EV Incentives — 6.0
7. Rates & Credit — 6.5
8. Macro/Trade — 6.5
9. Competition/Share — 6.2
10. Safety/Reg/Gov Risk — 7.5 (risk flag)
11. Commodities — 5.5
(Key Q3 facts from Tesla’s deck; probe/tax-credit items from NHTSA/IRS reporting.)
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📊 Analyst Rankings & Price Targets
• Street consensus (near-term 12-mo): ~$391 average target; consensus rating: Hold across ~46 firms.
• Bull camp: Wedbush (Dan Ives) $600 PT (reiterated Nov-5; Street-high; thesis = embodied-AI/robotics optionality + robotaxi). Benchmark $475 Buy (post-Q3).
• Cautious/negative: UBS $247 Sell (raised from $215 but still bearish on deliveries/margins).
• Tape-check from Tesla: Q3-25 revenue $28.1B, non-GAAP EPS $0.50, record FCF, record deliveries & storage. (EPS miss vs some expectations; revenue beat.)
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🔍 Headlines that moved the needle
• NHTSA opens new FSD probe (scope ~2.9M vehicles).
• FSD v14 (Supervised) broad rollout; AI capacity to ~81k H100-eq; Bay Area robotaxi ride-hailing noted (Q3 deck).
• OBBB EV tax credits sunset 9/30/25; binding-contract/time-of-sale guidance enables limited post-deadline claims.
• Q3 print: record deliveries, record energy storage, record FCF; EPS light vs some models but narrative shifts to AI/energy.
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🧭 Technicals: Levels & Structure (weekly focus)
Primary structure: since late-2022, TSLA’s traded inside a contracting wedge, with noteworthy compression into 2H-2025—typical of late-stage accumulation before a decisive break. Momentum divergences are improving on weekly frames even as price consolidates.
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Key levels (spot-agnostic):
• Support: $360–$370 (prior breakdown area/weekly shelf); $330–$345 (multi-touch base/pivot); $310–$320 (cycle risk zone).
• Resistance: $405–$420 (range top & supply), $450–$475 (post-robotaxi pop zone / analyst PT cluster), $500 (psych), then $600–$650 (LT measured target band).
• Roadmap Expect one more downside probe into $310–$320 in Q1-2026 to complete the wedge, then trend break and resume bull leg toward $600/$650 over the subsequent cycle (≈ ~100% off the projected low).
• Risk markers: sustained weekly closes < $305 would postpone the “final low” timing and force a re-mark to the 200-week MA cluster; weekly closes > $475 accelerate the upside timing toward the $500/$600 handles.
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Cases unchanged framework
• Bull: Robotaxi expands to more metros, regulators settle into a supervised-AV regime, energy/AI scale continues; market re-rates to $475–$600 (Benchmark/Wedbush anchors).
• Base: Solid execution across autos + energy, FCF stays healthy, autonomy rolls out cautiously under oversight; stock tracks Street $350–$400 band.
• Bear: Delivery softness post-credit-sunset, tougher pricing in China/EU, or adverse NHTSA actions; retest of $300–$330 zone before trend resolution.
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What to watch next (60–90 days)
1. NHTSA probe path and any software/recall remedies.
2. Robotaxi geographic expansion cadence and any shift from safety-monitor to remote-assist ops.
3. Energy bookings & Megapack 3/Megablock ramp against utility RFP calendars.
4. Delivery run-rate post-credit sunset and mix of Standard trims.
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TSLA: WaverVanir Edge – $TSLA Daily Outlook⚡ WaverVanir Edge – NASDAQ:TSLA Daily Outlook
NASDAQ:TSLA rejected from the 0.382 Fib ($466.9) and is hovering near $445, showing short-term weakness after an extended rally.
Auto-Fib map reveals liquidity clusters:
🟢 Premium Zones: $484 → $501 → $525 (target expansion levels)
🔴 Discount Zone: $411.6 major support
⚖️ Current equilibrium around $445 — consolidation before directional break.
WaverVanir DSS: Bearish divergence (−14% 30-day projection)
Institutional Model: Bullish rebound (+9% target → $485.6)
Edge Consensus: ⚠️ Range compression — volatility pocket between $411 and $466.
🌍 Macro & Catalysts
⚙️ FSD/AI expansion and Energy storage growth remain medium-term bullish
💰 Margins still under pressure amid price cuts & China competition
🏦 Fed tone mildly dovish → liquidity supportive, but yield volatility persists
🔋 Watch raw material cost trends (lithium, nickel) into Q1-2026
Base Path (WaverVanir Scenario):
Pullback → $420–$411 → re-accumulation → breakout >$466 to retest $484
“When volatility converges, conviction breaks. Patience over bias.”
#TSLA #WaverVanir #VolanXDSS #Fibonacci #SmartMoneyConcepts #AITrading #Macro #ElonMusk #StockMarket #RiskOn
TSLA eyes on $448 above 409 below: Dual Goldens will tell ALLTSLA range bound and looking for direction.
Again testing a Golden Covid fib at $448.01
Support below is a Golden Genesis at $409.56
What happens here will signal TOP or Continuation.
Bulls want a Break-n-Retest of the dashed Covid fib.
Bears want a B-n-R of the solid golden Genesis below.
Tesla - Stay patient and don’t rush in 🔮 Tesla (TSLA) – Long-Term Weekly Outlook
Based on the weekly timeframe, Tesla has completed its historical bullish cycle, topping out at $488.54, and has since entered a major corrective phase that has lasted for nearly two years.
This structural correction now appears to be in its final stages, as the price consolidates within what looks like a clear institutional accumulation zone.
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⚙️ Key Technical Zones
The 2020 Point of Control (POC) around $219.42 represents the core price level that supported Tesla’s previous major rally.
The long-term ascending trendline passes right through this area, reinforcing it as a major structural support.
Just below lies the $183–$185 region, which marks a powerful confluence zone of:
Fibonacci 0.786 retracement,
a historical VWAP level near $183.60, and
the beginning of a strong volume node on the profile.
> This region is what institutions often refer to as the “final accumulation zone” — where large investors quietly rebuild positions before the next expansion phase begins.
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📉 Expected Scenario Before the Next Rally
During the first quarter of 2026, Tesla is expected to experience one last corrective leg, gradually pulling back toward the $185 level, which aligns perfectly with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement.
This move will likely act as a liquidity sweep — shaking out late buyers and triggering stop-losses — before institutions start accumulating heavily again.
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💰 Smart Buying Zone
Optimal entry range: $183 – $190
Entry confirmation: A strong bullish weekly candle with rising volume emerging from the support zone
Protective stop: Weekly close below $170
Projected upside targets:
1. $295
2. $340
3. $396
4. $475
5. $520
These represent the key stages of Tesla’s expected bullish recovery cycle for 2026–2027.
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🧠 Institutional Perspective
Large funds (“the whales”) are patiently waiting for this final phase of the correction to rebuild their long-term positions at discounted prices.
Between March and May 2026, the accumulation process is expected to complete, marking the beginning of Tesla’s next major bull cycle.
---
✅ Summary
The final downside scenario projects a move to around $185,
right at the 0.786 Fibonacci level — the last golden buying zone before the next historical rally begins.
⏳ Recommendation:
> Stay patient and don’t rush in — the real buying opportunity will come with the whales 🐳
in the $183–$185 zone, where smart money quietly re-enters the market.
Tesla prints a weekly Key Reversal as part of a triple topTesla has been a volatile stock this year - and difficult to trade because of that.
However I now see that we've printed a weekly bearish key reversal as part of a double/ triple top. Is this now indication that we're likely to flow lower in the immediate future?
Well I am expecting some giddiness if they manage to end the US Gov't Shutdown, so it may help push prices higher for a day or two...and then the trend re-exerts itself?
Bearish in the short term after the relief rally bump.
TSLA Setting Up for a Big Move This Week (Nov 10–14)Here’s the full multi-timeframe outlook for TSLA based on SMC structure, channels, BOS/CHoCH shifts, momentum, and the GEX map. Each section is separated so you can attach the matching chart under it.
1. Weekly Timeframe (1W)
Macro Structure
TSLA is still holding its bigger weekly breakout after clearing the long-term descending trendline. The pullback off 480 looks like a standard retest rather than a reversal.
Weekly demand at 368–402 hasn’t been touched, so the broader trend still favors the upside as long as price stays above that region. Weekly MACD momentum continues to rise while Stoch RSI cools off, signaling consolidation rather than weakness.
Weekly Trade View
As long as TSLA stays above 402, the weekly bias remains bullish with potential to retest 486 once shorter timeframes settle.
Weekly GEX View
Large positive GEX above 470–480 slows upside momentum.
Large negative GEX under 420 accelerates downside moves.
TSLA currently sits between these zones, so whichever side breaks gets momentum.
2. Daily Timeframe (1D)
Daily Trend
The daily chart just printed a downside CHoCH inside the ascending channel. That confirms short-term weakness even though the weekly remains bullish.
The key line is 411–415. Losing this level flips the daily fully bearish. Holding it keeps the pullback healthy.
Daily MACD is red and still heading down. Stoch RSI is oversold but hasn’t curled up yet, meaning momentum hasn’t turned.
Daily Trade View
Hold 411 → potential bounce into 438 then 455.
Break 411 → opens a move toward 392–368.
Daily GEX View
Multiple put walls at 421–425 and 400.
These usually act as magnets during pullbacks because of dealer hedging.
3. 1-Hour Timeframe (1H)
Short-Term Structure
TSLA remains in a descending channel on the 1H. The most recent BOS was bearish, and the CHoCH didn’t reclaim any major highs.
The short-term pivot is 439. If TSLA stays under that line, momentum stays bearish.
MACD is flattening and Stoch RSI is trying to curl, hinting at a potential early-week bounce.
1H Trade View
Below 439 → bearish continuation.
Above 439 → opens a move into 447–455.
If TSLA can’t reclaim 432–439 early, expect another test toward 425–421.
4. 15-Minute Timeframe (15M)
Intraday Structure
The 15M shows a clean descending channel. Bulls attempted a small CHoCH, but without an upside BOS, momentum is still controlled by sellers.
The main intraday battle is 432–438.
Break above → intraday reversal.
Reject → continuation lower.
MACD is trying to turn but hasn’t built momentum yet.
15M Trade View
Break above 437–438 → scalp long toward 445.
Reject 432–434 → scalp short toward 425 and 421.
5. GEX Map & Options Strategy
GEX Interpretation for the Week
Positive GEX sits above 455–480
Negative GEX increases under 425
Major put wall at 421.88
Call walls thin around 445–465
What that means:
Upside above 455 slows down
Downside below 430 sharpens
421 is a strong gravitational level
A clean break below 421 increases volatility rapidly
Options Strategy
If TSLA fails to reclaim 438:
Short-dated puts targeting 421 make sense.
If TSLA reclaims 439 and holds:
Short-dated calls into 445–455 are reasonable.
Avoid deep OTM calls above 470 because price tends to stall in strong positive GEX zones.
My Thought
TSLA is sitting at a major inflection point. The weekly chart still leans bullish, but the daily and intraday structure are showing short-term weakness. This entire week will revolve around how price reacts around 438.
Rejecting 438 favors continuation into 425 and 421.
Reclaiming 438 puts 447–455 back into play.
Keep the levels simple. Let 438 decide the direction for the week.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always trade your own plan and manage your risk. If you want a breakdown for another ticker, just let me know.
TSLA – Expanding Diagonal in Progress Tesla (TSLA) appears to be forming an Expanding Ending Diagonal pattern on the 1-hour chart, suggesting the final stages of a larger impulsive structure. Wave (V) seems to be unfolding with internal subdivisions visible, possibly targeting the 1.618 Fibonacci extension near 505 before a sharp reversal.
Key observations:
Structure resembles a textbook expanding diagonal (5-3-5-3-5).
Wave 4 found support near the lower trendline.
Wave 5 projection aims toward the 500–505 area.
Expecting a potential pullback or reversal once the diagonal completes.
TSLA is giving mixed signals. Range low next move?I must say I have a very dualistic view on TSLA here. I think there is certainly a possibility of this becoming a prolonged consolidation with another move towards the downside of the range. On the other hand, that 1.618 extension to the upside als looks like a very valid target. Needless to say, while most people seem to stare blindly at TESLA great promises, I'm a little more skeptical to say the lest.
- Earnings have been going down over the years
- Revenue has stayed somewhat flat, with high odds of continuing to decline in China
- First their cars were going to change the world, then it was their energy solutions, then FSD became the narrative (Once done, FSD would instantly scale to worldwide usage and work everywhere, but currently their taxi service that would expand rapidly is geofenced), now Optimus is the narrative.
Elon is holding a carrot
- My point is: Elon is holding a carrot in front of us. I'm not saying Tesla is not doing great things. Their progress on FSD is real. But unless they will actually start to deliver real revenue and real profit, it will continue to be hyped up promises.
- For example, the EPS of XETR:VOW is 13x higher than Tesla's. Current Price to Earnings ratio for Tesla is at 300x.
So is it that weird to find that TA is giving mixed signals and possibly pointing towards range low?
Simple outlook
Anyway, this is my plan:
- I'll assume we are going up for 1.618 UNLESS
- We deviate back below previous ATH level. Then I think odds are starting to shift in favor of a bigger downward move.
TSLA 3-Drive & ABCD Pattern – Path to $500 Before a PullbackThis chart highlights multiple harmonic and Elliott structures aligning for a potential bullish extension in Tesla (TSLA). A well-defined ABCD pattern and 3-Drive pattern suggest momentum building toward the $500 zone, supported by Fibonacci projections and channel resistance.
The current wave structure points to an imminent 5-wave advance, likely completing the “Drive 3” and pattern D confluence area near $500–505. Following that move, a corrective pullback (ABC) is anticipated, possibly retesting prior support near $440–400.
Key elements featured:
ABCD completion zone: around $500
3-Drive pattern: confirming exhaustion at upper trendline
Elliott 5-wave projection: short-term bullish continuation
Possible corrective phase: after the final wave up
📈 Watching for confirmation of Wave iii and potential exhaustion signals near $500 before considering downside setups.
1 trillion dollar pay package to elon muskTesla shareholders agreed to pay Elon Musk a package of 1 trillion dollars, and that's 12% of total gains if he reached his promised goal to shareholders of making Tesla the most valuable company in the world, and it stays that way for 5 years. If Musk delivers, the stock price should jump to 1000 dollars price per share in 5 years.
PS: If Musk misses the target but a few thousand dollars, he gets nothing. Hence, the current most valuable company is now Nvidia with a 5 billion dollar evaluation, and Tesla is currently worth 1.35 trillion.
TESLA Sellers In Panic! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for TESLA is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 429.39
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 446.44
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
$TSLA - Reaching $1050 in 2026 is NOT a Dream!I can't ignore how bullish Tesla stocks chart looks right now. A massive ascending triangle with horizontal resistance ($430) was broken upwards and currently the price is consolidating above it, the resistance also perfectly correlates with the 0.786 lvl by Fibo.
Taking into account the overall company's plan regarding its growth (talking about recent news that 75% of shareholders voted in favour of a compensation plan that could award Musk up to $1T in stock if Tesla could achieve $8.5T market capitalization) , we can easily expect NASDAQ:TSLA to reach point 1 by Fibo ($1050 mark) .
By the way, by pointing out to the news about providing $1T, I don't mean that Tesla could really achieve $8.5T market capitalization any time soon, if only in 10 years as the overall money supply is drastically increasing. This news highlights the plan, in other words - creative way of sharing what is their "plan maximum" in terms of 10 years.
I believe Tesla will cost $2T in 2026.
Tesla at a Breakout Crossroad
The Tesla (TSLA) daily chart shows a classic Cup & Handle pattern nearing a critical resistance zone. The key level sits around $450, aligning with a long-term descending trendline (in blue).
Technical Overview:
General Trend:
Since early 2025, TSLA has been in a steady uptrend.
The 50-day moving average (SMA 50) near $220 acts as strong dynamic support and is still trending upward.
The structure indicates Tesla is finishing the “handle” phase of the pattern — a decisive moment is approaching.
Bullish Scenario:
If the price breaks and holds above $450 with strong volume, it would confirm the Cup & Handle breakout.
Potential upside targets:
Short-term target: $503
Mid to long-term target: $565 (based on cup depth projection)
Stop loss: Below $410
A breakout above $450 could trigger a strong continuation rally as investors re-enter on technical confirmation.
Bearish Scenario:
Failure to break above $450 and a drop below $410 could invalidate the bullish setup, leading to a deeper correction.
Potential downside targets:
Short-term target: $375
Long-term target: $320
Stop loss: A confirmed close back above $445
This would suggest that the handle failed, and selling pressure could accelerate toward lower supports.
Timeframe Summary:
Short-term (1–3 weeks):
Expect consolidation between $410–$450, with bias toward a breakout if the tech sector remains strong.
Long-term (3–6 months):
A confirmed breakout above $450 opens the path toward $565.
If rejected, expect a correction toward $375, possibly forming a new accumulation base.






















