Trade ideas
SILVER made new ATH. Multi-year Bear Cycle starting.Last time we took a look at Silver (XAGUSD) (August 22, see chart below), we had a clear buy signal on its 1D MA50 at the bottom of the Channel Up, that quickly hit our 4050 Target:
The pattern even broke aggressively upwards and this week crossed the 49.9400 Resistance, which is the All Time High (ATH) from April 18 2011. Essentially that was also the High of the long forgotten January 1980 Top!
Needless to say, cyclical behavior indicates that this is where the market sells and starts new multi-year (2-3) Bear Cycles. The 1W RSI comes to confirm that, as it is only a few points off he 88.80 Resistance, which has been the ultimate sell signal since 1987.
We expect the market to decline to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at 20.500, which is also where the first key Higher Lows trend-line (dashed) is.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
XAGUSD 15M – Retracement Before Continuation TVC:SILVER
Structure | Trend | Key Reaction Zones
Silver remains in a clear bullish structure, recently facing a pullback from the 49.50 resistance zone after a strong rally from the 47.80 demand base.
Market Overview
The market printed a strong impulse leg upward followed by a healthy correction toward the 48.74–48.67 support zone, which also aligns with previous accumulation structure. As long as this zone holds, bullish continuation remains valid with buyers expected to regain control.
Key Scenarios
✅ Bullish Case 🚀 → 🎯 Target 1: 49.10 | 🎯 Target 2: 49.50 | 🎯 Target 3: 49.80
❌ Bearish Case 📉 → Break below 48.67 could extend correction toward 48.23 or 47.80.
Current Levels to Watch
Resistance 🔴: 49.10 – 49.50 – 49.80
Support 🟢: 48.74 – 48.23 – 47.80
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
XAGUSD Holding Trendline With Support From Key Demand Zones📈 XAGUSD Holding Trendline Support, Eyes on Breakout
Silver continues to trade within a strong bullish structure, holding above a rising trendline and building pressure near recent highs. With support clearly defined and momentum intact, bulls are eyeing a potential breakout continuation. This update outlines the trend context, support zones, and fundamental backdrop.
🔍 Technical Analysis:
XAGUSD is respecting a steep ascending trendline from mid-June, holding structure despite multiple retests. Price recently bounced cleanly from trend support and is now pushing toward prior highs.
The bullish trend remains valid as long as this structure is defended. A close above recent resistance could unlock further upside potential.
🛡️ Support Zones (if pullback occurs):
🟢 Daily Support – Good Entry
Clearly respected zone labeled on your chart. Strong daily demand.
🟡 Weekly Support – Great Entry
Macro support area from prior consolidation. Viewed as a strong swing entry zone.
🔼 Resistance Zone:
🔴 Local High / Recent Resistance
No breakout yet — bulls must reclaim this zone to confirm continuation.
🧭 Outlook:
Bullish Case:
Holding the rising trendline + reclaiming highs would likely trigger further upside movement.
Bearish Case:
Break of the trendline + loss of daily support would open the door to deeper correction.
Bias:
Bullish while structure holds and daily/weekly support levels remain intact.
🌍 Fundamental Insight:
Silver is benefiting from firm industrial demand and a softening U.S. Dollar. Inflation hedging and ETF inflows also continue to support the bullish case. However, upcoming Fed commentary and CPI releases may trigger volatility, especially near resistance.
✅ Conclusion:
XAGUSD is maintaining its bullish trend, supported by well-defined daily and weekly demand zones. As long as the ascending trendline holds, the momentum favors further upside. Bears only take control if structure breaks and demand zones fail.
Not financial advice. Like & follow for more structured market updates.
XAGUSD Long Setup – Target 55, Manage Risk Below 48Description:
Silver (XAGUSD) has shown strong bullish momentum, breaking multiple structure levels (BOS) and confirming a clear uptrend. The current price action suggests potential continuation toward the next resistance levels around $53.8 – $57.1, with a final target at $55.
However, if price retraces and closes below $48, it may signal exhaustion or a potential reversal, making that an appropriate exit or stop-loss level.
Trade Plan:
Entry: Current market price (~$50.6)
Take Profit: $55
Stop Loss / Exit if hit: $48
Risk–Reward Ratio: ~1.7:1
Trend Bias: Strong Bullish
Timeframe: 1D
Technical Notes:
Price has broken multiple structures and maintained higher highs and higher lows.
Momentum remains strong after BOS near $47.36.
Watch for consolidation near $51–$52 as short-term resistance.
Conclusion:
As long as silver holds above $48, the bullish structure remains intact. A push toward $55 aligns with current market momentum and Fibonacci extension targets.
OANDA:XAGUSD
Silver Market Once in a Lifetime Breakout: 120/140 USD PT📌 Base case unchanged: I’m still targeting $125–$150 within 12–24 months. The next leg of the bull run should accelerate after the all-time-high (~$49–$50) breaks and sticks. Spot is circling the mid-$40s (recent highs ~$46–$47), so the setup is in place. 💎✨
🎯 Bottom line
Silver’s structural deficit + gold leadership + policy-driven cost inflation meet a fresh technical regime. The ATH break is the ignition; $65–$75 is the first destination, and the $125–$150 12–24M target stays live if real yields drift down and PV/electronics demand stays elevated despite thrifting. Manage the whipsaws; respect $38 as the cycle guardrail. BUY/HOLD bias remains warranted. 🚀💎🔥
________________________________________
📊 Technical Outlook (2-week candles)
• Structure: Multi-year Cup & Handle from 2011 → 2020 base → 2024/25 handle. The $40 neckline break is done; a weekly/monthly close > $49.50 flips the market into price discovery.
• Levels that matter:
— Resistance: $49–$50 (ATH), then $65–$75 (measured move / vacuum), interim supply near $57–$60.
— Support: $44.5–$45 (breakout retest), $41–$42 (former cap), deeper $38 and $34 (trend break if lost).
• Momentum breadth: Higher highs on price with constructive consolidation while gold prints records → classic GSR mean-reversion tailwind. 📈⚡
________________________________________
🧭 12–24 Month Path Outlook
Base (55%) – Break & run: Close above $50 triggers trend systems and discretionary chase → extension to $65–$75 by mid-’26, stair-step into $100–$125 by late ’26/early ’27; overshoot to $150 on macro squeeze. 🚀
Alt up (15%) – Blow-off: Parabolic sprint to $85–$100 immediately post-break, sharp retrace to high-$60s, then grind to $125–$150.
Pullback (25%) – Fakeout & reload: Failure at $49–$50, mean reversion to $41–$42 or even $38, rebuild positioning; timeline slips ~1–2 quarters.
Bear tail (5%) – Macro shock: USD spike + real-yield jump + PV air-pocket; lose $34 → cycle delay (target deferred, not canceled). ⚠️
________________________________________
🚦 Catalyst Scorecard — Visible & Hidden Drivers (0–10)
1. Fed path & real yields — 9.0/10 (Bullish)
The Fed cut 25 bps on Sept 17 (now 4.00–4.25%) and signaled scope for more easing this year; several officials reinforced that bias. Lower real yields are the single strongest tailwind for non-yielding metals. 🏦
2. U.S. Dollar trend — 6.0/10 (Net-Bullish for silver)
DXY has been firm the last two weeks, a minor headwind; but with the Fed easing bias, dollar upswings look tactical, not structural. Any USD rollover clears the runway. 💵
3. Gold leadership & GSR mean-reversion — 8.5/10 (Bullish)
Gold at/near record highs ~$3.75–$3.80k keeps silver in tow. GSR ~80–84 is elevated vs. bull-market medians → skew favors silver outperformance on a gold grind. 🪙⚖️
4. Structural deficit — 8.5/10 (Bullish)
Fourth straight sizable deficit; ~678 Moz cumulative drawdown since 2021. 2025 still projected to run a ~115–120 Moz deficit despite softer bar/coin demand. 📉📦
5. Industrial demand (PV/Electronics) — 7.5/10 (Bullish with nuance)
PV/electrical demand at record highs; PV up again in 2024 (+3% y/y) and installations broadened across 38 “>1GW” countries. Offsetting force: silver thrifting (0BB, copper plating) → another 10–12% loading cut likely in 2025. Net: total ounces still robust as capacity growth outpaces thrifting… for now. ☀️🔋
6. ETP/ETF flows — 7.5/10 (Bullish)
Global silver ETPs flipped to net inflows in 2024 (+62 Moz) and kept adding into 2025. SLV shows ~15,362 tonnes in trust as of Sept 26—a sizable base of “sticky” investment metal. 📊📈
7. LBMA & COMEX stocks / liquidity premia — 7.0/10 (Bullish)
LBMA silver in London: 24,646 t (Aug) — up m/m but well below pre-2020 peaks; COMEX registered ~196 Moz. Tight-ish float + delivery frictions can widen location premia during spikes. 🏭📦
8. Tariff & logistics regime — 7.0/10 (Bullish via inflation/frictions)
U.S. 50% copper tariff (Aug 1) lifts domestic copper premia and can indirectly affect by-product silver flows and refining economics. Recent gold bar tariff confusion also showed how policy can snarl bullion logistics; LBMA welcomed clarifications, and noted silver discussions continue—headline risk persists. 🚢⚙️
9. Base-metal supply shocks (by-product linkage) — 6.5/10 (Bullish)
Grasberg disruptions and Peru protest-related shutdowns point to emerging fragility in copper output; since much silver comes as a by-product, copper hiccups can tighten silver supply at the margin. ⛏️🌍
10. Mexico policy/permitting — 6.0/10 (Bullish later, volatile now)
World’s top silver producer remains mired in regulatory overhang; exploration still depressed post-2023 reforms. Any genuine permitting thaw would be years from ounces—near-term effect is restraint. 🇲🇽📜
11. India retail/investment demand — 6.5/10 (Bullish)
Silver hitting record rupee highs; local ETFs up ~50%+ YTD; retail investment +7% y/y in H1’25. Seasonal tailwinds into festivals. 🎉🇮🇳
12. China macro & manufacturing — 5.5/10 (Mixed)
Electronics appetite is steady, PV leadership intact; property stress caps jewelry, but investment demand remains opportunistic. Net: supportive on dips, headline-sensitive. 🏗️🇨🇳
13. Systematic/CTA & options positioning — 6.0/10 (Volatility amplifier)
Trend models chased the $40 break; dealer gamma turns negative above $45–$47 at times, inviting intraday whipsaws. 🎯📉📈
14. Geopolitics (Ukraine/Mideast/Taiwan) — 5.5/10 (Event-Bullish)
Safe-haven jolts remain episodic; they matter more after the ATH triggers chase behavior. 🌍🔥
________________________________________
🧨 Hidden (under-traded) catalysts
• GSR compression trade: Once $50 breaks, programmatic rebalancing from gold to silver can accelerate relative gains. (GSR in the 60s pulls silver deeper into triple digits fast.) ⚖️💥
• By-product elasticity: Copper policy & outages (tariffs, mine incidents) can reduce silver by-product feed even as PV demand hums—this is not fully priced. 🔧⛏️
• Vault/warehouse microstructure: LBMA/COMEX stock changes vs. delivery notices can suddenly widen time/location spreads → sparks short-term basis fireworks that lift spot. 📦⏳
________________________________________
🛠️ Positioning & Execution
• Core: BUY/HOLD core metal exposure; add on $44–$45 retests; reload heavier on $41–$42.
• Breakout tactics: On a weekly close > $50, ride call spreads (e.g., $60/$90 9–15M out on SI or SLV) or risk-reversals (sell $35 puts to fund $80–$100 calls).
• Risk controls: Invalidate momentum if weekly close < $38; cut leverage.
________________________________________
🧩 Fundamental NOTES
• Spot context: XAG/USD ~$46, 52-week range ~$28–$46.7. ATH ~$49–$50 (1980/2011).
• Deficit math: Metals Focus/Silver Institute show fourth straight deficit; 2025 deficit ~117 Moz amid record industrial demand and only modest supply growth.
• Supply: 2024 mined = 819.7 Moz; 2025e ≈ 835.0 Moz (+1.9% y/y). Primary mine share keeps slipping; AISC fell in 2024 (by-product credits).
• PV nuance: Silver loadings ↓ ~10–12% in 2025e, but global PV installations broadened; total silver ounces into PV remain lofty even as intensity falls.
• Vaults/ETFs: LBMA London holdings 24,646 t (Aug). SLV metal in trust 15,361.84 t (Sep 26). COMEX registered ~196 Moz.
• Macro winds: Fed cut and may cut more in 2025 → lower real yields + easier USD path.
• Policy kicker: U.S. copper tariffs live; gold bar tariffs clarified after August confusion; silver remains under policy watch—any mis-classification can jolt premia.
________________________________________
Monthly Metals Analysis:Silver (XAGUSD), Issue 210 (Free Access)The analyst believes that the price of XAGUSD will increase within the time specified on the countdown timer. This prediction is based on a quantitative analysis of the price trend.
___Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
SILVER (XAGUSD): New ATH & What is Next
Silver successfully broke through a historic resistance
based on a previous ATH.
Bullish keep pushing strong and the market may continue rising easily.
The closest strong psychological resistance is 55.0 level.
It can be reached soon.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Silver and Gold Keep Rising – The Modern Form of Robbery?Gold and Silver Keep Rising – Even After Good News?
On Thursday, Israel and Palestine announced a ceasefire and hostage deal, part of U.S. President Donald Trump’s first phase plan to end the Gaza war.
Even after all this positive news, Gold and Silver keep rising.
How is that possible?
Normally, such news should reduce geopolitical tension — but instead, Silver broke above its historic high of 49.78, a record that stood since 2011.
So, what more is needed for metals to fall?
Even with peace news, they still climb.
If anyone tells you that market manipulation doesn’t exist, just look at what’s happening now — it’s crystal clear that it does.
Always trade safely and use stop losses on every position.
We’re not market makers — and this is how they take traders’ money. It’s the modern form of robbery.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Silver and Gold analysis - Golden EraTechnical Structure
Upper trendline (resistance): Descending from ~0.07 (1980) to ~0.015 (2025 zone).
Lower trendline (support): Rising from ~0.005 (1970s) to ~0.01 (current).
Current position: The ratio has just rebounded from lower wedge support and is approaching the upper trendline — suggesting an imminent breakout attempt.
⚙️ Indicator Inference (from price behavior)
Although indicators aren’t visible, the pattern and candles show:
Long-term compression — volatility is extremely low → big move likely ahead.
Momentum (visible from candle size) seems to be turning up after multi-decade stagnation.
📈 Scenario Analysis
Bullish Breakout (Base Case)
If the ratio breaks and sustains above 0.015, it confirms a multi-decade bullish breakout.
Targets (long-term, multi-year horizon):
0.020 – initial resistance / measured move target (short-term)
0.030–0.035 – medium-term target (aligns with 2008–2011 highs)
0.050+ – extended target if silver massively outperforms gold (historical reversion level)
Bearish Failure
If the ratio rejects 0.015 and breaks below 0.010:
Downside could extend to 0.008–0.007, but this seems less probable given structural tightening.
🪙 Interpretation
A rising Silver/Gold ratio means Silver is outperforming Gold, typically during:
Early stages of a commodity bull cycle
Inflationary or reflationary macro environments
Periods when industrial demand picks up
Given global macro trends (renewable energy demand, industrial use, and potential Fed rate cuts in the next cycles), the setup favors Silver outperforming Gold in the coming decade.
🎯 Long-Term Target (2027–2030 horizon)
Base Breakout Target: 0.03
Extended (cycle peak) Target: 0.05
This implies Silver could outperform Gold by 2.5× to 4× over the long term once the breakout confirms.
Silver Cup &Handle Formation:Potential Breakout Towards $50–$100📊 Silver Technical Outlook (Long-Term View)
Looking at the chart, Silver is forming a **massive cup-and-handle pattern** that has been developing for over a decade. This is one of the strongest bullish continuation patterns in technical analysis.
🔑 Key Takeaways:
1. Support Zone ($40–$42):
* This area is acting as strong support on both weekly and daily timeframes.
* A swing trade from here can easily deliver 18–20% returns.
2. Resistance Breakout ($49–$50):
* If Silver gives a solid weekly/monthly close above its all-time high ($49.7) , it opens the door for a massive rally.
* The upside potential could extend towards $100 (almost 100% gains).
3. Trend Structure:
* Price action shows a steady uptrend since the 2020 lows.
* The blue curve highlights the accumulation-to-breakout phase, signaling strong bullish momentum.
4. Strategy for Traders:
* Short-Term Swing: Look for longs near $40–$42 with targets around $48–$50.
* Long-Term Position: A confirmed breakout above $50 could be held for a much larger move towards $75–$100.
⚠️ Risk Note: Always manage position sizing—false breakouts are possible before the big move.
$50 Silver and $4000 GoldCongratulations, everyone! 🎉
Silver has finally reached our long-term target $50, marking a new historical high. It’s been quite a ride!
From here, in the $50–$56 range, I’d start gradually locking in some profits, carefully and patiently.
In case we get a correction, I’m looking at the $39–$42 zone as a potential retracement area.
The best mid-term scenario would be a healthy consolidation between $45 and $50, followed by another leg higher.
The worst case scenario would be a drop toward $34, which could coincide with a broader stock market correction, considering that 55–60% of silver demand comes from industrial use.
Cheers! 🍻
Silver hits new record!Silver hits $50, breaking 2011's record high. The precious metal is now up 73% so far in 2025, outpacing both gold (53%) and S&P (14.5%). How high can it go? or will we se a dip first? In any case, trend is strong and we wouldn't advise fighting it.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
SILVER (XAG/USD): Bullish Rally ContinuesIt appears that 📈SILVER is expected to continue its upward trend, potentially reaching the 50.00 psychological level.
The observed break of structure on the 4-hour chart suggests a strong presence of buyers.
Given the lack of significant US news today, the market is anticipated to maintain a bullish sentiment.
SILVER: Move Up Expected! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 49.658 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 50.087.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
SILVER target based on NEoWave
Based on the weekly cash data, it appears that the trend that began on March 9, 2023, is developing into a diametric pattern, and we are currently in its Wave (e). I expect Wave (f) of the diametric to start from the current prices or the $53–$56 range.
Good luck
NEoWave Chart
SILVER Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for SILVER.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 4,932.1.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 4,773.8 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
The biggest cup&handle of all times: silver targets $50The data suggests a cup&handle:
Cup was between 1980-2011
Handle is still in progress and probably may finish by 2025 or earlier.
For the short run: a re-test of low re-accumulation range of $23 can be seen.
The next mid-term target will be $25.
Final target will be $50.






















