Your Playbook for Deep Corrections: Top Seven Things to KnowEvery trader hopes that whatever is happening with any pullback is healthy. “Just a healthy retreat, it’ll go back, it always does. R-r-right?”
While that’s true (obviously, markets had always shot up to records after deep losses), your job is to survive that lower leg and ideally come out stronger than before.
Because sometimes the market doesn’t correct immediately. It drops, turns around, drops some more and doesn’t ask you how you’re doing.
Where are we in the valuation cycle now? In the “Is this AI thing a bubble” talks.
With stocks stretched, AI valuations orbiting Saturn, and Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA dictating the market’s fate, investors are starting to ask: What happens if this thing unwinds… fast?
A deep correction shakes your portfolio like nothing else, ultimately putting your strategy (and sanity) to a test. That's why you must know how to deal with correction ( if when it comes).
Here’s your playbook. Seven things every trader should know when markets get serious.
⚡️ 1. Know What’s Driving the Tempo
Right now, the tempo-setter isn't in the economic calendar (but good to keep an eye on it). It's not gold, the US dollar, oil prices, or consumer sentiment.
It’s Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA
The stock has shot to stratospheric levels, climbing with such force that the entire market now reacts to its every earnings forecast, capex comment, and Jensen Huang metaphor about the "virtuous cycle of AI.”
When a single company starts steering the market’s mood, you know the stakes are high. Nvidia’s rise has been spectacular. Its potential fall could also be spectacular.
If there’s a crash in the current market, undoubtedly tech goes first, and AI-tied shares are poised to lead the plunge. Not because the companies are bad, but because valuations are sky-high, crowded, and pumped by shady-looking multi-billion-dollar deals.
🧨 2. Sky-High Valuations Fall the Hardest
AI has been the market’s darling. And like any hot market corner, the exit door gets crowded when the music stops.
These stocks work great in a liquidity-rich, momentum-heavy environment. But in a deep correction, they can drop first and fastest.
Why?
They’re relatively expensive.
They’re owned by institutions (by boatloads).
They’re deeply intertwined with leverage.
When selling starts, it spreads: chips, software, cloud. Really anything with “AI initiative” mentioned in the last five earnings calls.
If the correction deepens, correlations go to 1 , and “diversification” starts to feel like a theoretical concept.
🧺 3. Staples Can Survive. But Aren’t Safe.
What tends to hold up in a downturn?
Companies that produce things people buy every day.
Coca-Cola NYSE:KO , Procter & Gamble NYSE:PG , Walmart NYSE:WMT , Costco NASDAQ:COST . These are the boring giants who don’t need AI hype to sell toothpaste, detergent, and caffeine.
But here’s the catch.
When tech crashes, fund managers don’t just sell tech.
They sell everything with liquidity to buy the tech names they've been waiting to own at a discount.
That includes consumer staples. Even the defensive darlings can get dumped to fund someone’s impulsive “NVDA is finally cheap!” moment.
🧭 4. Corrections Have Phases. Know Which One You’re In.
Corrections tend to move in waves:
Denial: “This is just a dip.”
Realization: “This is not a dip.”
Capitulation: “Sell everything.”
Bargain hunting: “Wait… everything is on sale.”
Recovery: “We survived. Buy up!”
Don’t confuse early weakness with late-stage panic.
Ideally, you want to buy when everyone else is emotionally unavailable, not when they’re still debating if it’s a pullback or an opportunity.
📊 5. Liquidity Matters More Than Fundamentals
In a deep correction, fundamentals usually take a backseat.
Everything becomes about liquidity.
Who needs cash?
Who has margin calls?
Who needs to rotate?
Which institutions need to de-risk?
This is why great companies drop alongside mediocre ones.
Liquidity can trump logic.
Market structure can trump valuation.
And algos don’t care that you really like that stock long-term.
🧘♂️ 6. Your Mindset Is a Position Too
Corrections can provoke every trading impulse, especially if they're steep and you expect a quick rebound:
Revenge trades
Over-leveraged dip buying
Premature bottom-calling
The hardest thing during a deep correction isn’t predicting the bottom, but not losing your head (and cash) before the bottom arrives.
Pro traders work with a few rules that help them avoid emotional decision making:
Pre-set drawdown limits
Scaling entries
Non-negotiable stop-losses
Portfolio hedges
Cash as an asset
If you don’t have a playbook before the drop, you’ll be writing one during the drop.
🛒 7. Buy the Best, Not the Loudest
When markets crack, everything goes on sale, everyone knows that.
Before you go bargain hunting and deep discount shopping, prioritize:
Cash-generating giants
Companies with pricing power (and moat)
Firms selling essentials in whatever industry
Businesses that don’t rely on hype to survive
🧾 The Takeaway
A deep correction may not be the end of the world, but it could be the market’s way of redistributing opportunity.
Nvidia and the AI titans have been running the show. And they’ll likely lead any sharp selloff.
And yes, even your safe, boring consumer staples can get dragged into the downside.
But corrections create clarity. They separate narrative from value, hype from durability, and momentum from substance.
If you stay disciplined, patient, and unemotional, a correction becomes less of a threat and more of a roadmap, pointing you toward assets worth owning when the next bull run begins.
Off to you : What’s your take on the current market situation? Do you see a bubble in the works, ready to go pop? Or it’s all looking fine and dandy, no reason for caution?
Trade ideas
NVDA at a Critical Breakdown. Bounce Coming or Flush to $175NVDA at a Critical Breakdown Zone – Bounce Coming or Full Flush Below $175? 🔥
Weekly Trend (Big Picture)
NVDA’s weekly chart just did something important:
✅ Broke below the long-term rising structure
✅ First real weekly lower high since the major uptrend started
✅ Strong selling wick at the top
This shift tells us momentum is no longer purely bullish. Buyers lost control near $220–$230, and the weekly now leans corrective, not trending.
Key weekly support: $176–$180
This is where the prior trendline, demand, and volume cluster meet.
If NVDA loses this zone on a weekly close → the next major weekly demand isn’t until $160–$165.
Daily Structure
The daily makes the story even clearer:
* Multiple CHoCH signals (trend weakness)
* Failed continuation after breakout attempt
* Price rejecting the daily bearish order block around $198–$205
* Holding inside a large daily demand zone $175–$182
This is the final defense for bulls.
As long as NVDA holds $176–$180 on the daily, we can see:
➡️ Relief bounce toward $187–$192
➡️ Possibly $198 retest
But if $176 breaks…
➡️ Daily breakdown
➡️ Clean air to $165
➡️ Fast move likely
1-Hour View (Trader Timing)
The 1H structure is currently:
* Downtrend channel
* Lower highs
* Multiple failed bounces
* Buyers defending the green demand block $177–$182
Short-term, this is range to down, but oversold enough for intraday bounces.
Best actionable levels:
✅ Long scalp only if price holds above $180 → target $184–$187
❌ Avoid longs below $179
📉 If $176 breaks → expect momentum selling toward $170–$165
GEX (Options Positioning Signal)
This is the key confluence.
GEX shows:
🔴 PUT dominance
🔴 Highest negative exposure at $175
🟥 Strong PUT support wall below $175
🟢 Light CALL interest above $188–$195
What this means:
Institutions are positioned for downside or pinning around $175–$180.
If price cracks $175, dealers flip into accelerated selling → this is where the flush to $165 can trigger quickly.
If price holds above $180 and pushes toward $187+, GEX shifts to neutral and a bounce can develop.
My Thoughts
NVDA is the opposite of AAPL and GOOGL right now.
Those are pushing highs with momentum.
NVDA is:
* Weakest of the big names
* Losing trend structure
* Sitting on final support
* Option flow leaning bearish
This usually leads to:
🔥 Either a violent bounce
🔥 Or a breakdown flush
No middle.
Direction Summary
Bullish scenario:
Hold $180 → push into $187–$192
Bearish scenario (higher probability if $176 breaks):
Break $176 → unwind to $165 fast
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
NVDA Hagia Sophia CRACKING! CAUTION!NVDA is starting to fall apart. Nice rounding top followed by mini towerspike (as shown in the picture) that is now starting to roll over.
The price was rejected after the first crack that bounced lower. That's the big warning CRACK! Now we wait for the bigger CRACK! to occur.
Despite how small it looks on the chart, the reality is that NVDA has lost 20% or 1/5 of its total value already.
There is only so much B.S. they can come out and say to pump the stock. Eventually, that dies off along with the stock.
Remember! Circular financing is flat-out illegal because it fabricates the appearance of real demand, real capital, or real creditworthiness when none actually exists. It’s the financial version of forging a signature. This administration has gutted the SEC, and no one will dare call it out for what it is in AI. But the markets will always correct for theivery in the end.
NVDA should never have gotten this high. But that is the beauty of Reflexivity. We should all be used to it by now.
Eventually, it will all come crashing down. I hope not with you in it. I urge caution to the bulls!
THANK YOU for getting me to 5,000 followers! 🙏🔥
Let’s keep climbing.
If you enjoy the work:
👉 Boost
👉 Follow
👉 Drop a solid comment
Let’s push it to 6,000 and keep building a community grounded in truth, not hype.
Nvidia - Now is the time to go short!💣Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) is now creating a top:
🔎Analysis summary:
Just a couple of days ago, Nvidia perfectly retested a major resistance trendline. Always in the past, such a retest was followed by a major move towards the downside. Therefore, Nvidia is preparing for a major drop, which could lead to another -25% drop in the future.
📝Levels to watch:
$180 and $140 and $100
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
Nvidia Earnings Finally Ease Market Jitters. Are AI Bulls Back?It’s confirmed. This is Nvidia’s stock market and we all live in it.
Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA reported yet another record-breaking quarter, instantly soothing market nerves after a week filled with talks of “AI bubble,” “valuation fever,” and “maybe Michael Burry is right again.” It was the cherry of the earnings season .
The chipmaking giant announced $57 billion in sales during the most recent quarter.
The figure is up 62% year-over-year and way above estimates. In other words, Nvidia didn’t just calm the market. It kicked the door open and shouted: “Get in losers, we’re going shopping.”
CEO Jensen Huang was even more enthusiastic, declaring that “AI is going everywhere, doing everything, all at once.” In classic Huang fashion, you could almost smell the leather jacket.
💽 Data Center Demand: Still Insatiable
Let’s cut to the headline number: $51.2 billion in data-center revenue. Analysts expected $49 billion. Nvidia delivered more.
The company’s new Blackwell GPUs, described by Huang as “off the charts” when it comes to demand, continue to fly off the production line the moment they’re made.
Quarterly net income hit a whopping $31.9 billion, up 65% from the year prior. At a time when most companies celebrate single-digit percentage growth, Nvidia is casually stacking double and triple digits.
📈 Markets Exhale, Futures Soar
The relief was immediate and widespread. You could say that Nvidia’s earnings are not just earnings anymore, but a macro signal.
Here’s what the picture looked like after the release:
CoreWeave NASDAQ:CRWV jumped 10%
Futures tied to the Nasdaq NASDAQ:IXIC climbed 2%
Every Magnificent Seven stock flashing green
Investors had been waiting for confirmation that the AI boom still had room. And Nvidia delivered enough reassurance to light up the entire tech complex.
“Okay. Maybe we don’t need to rotate into utilities just yet,” every tech bro, probably.
😬 The Stakes Were High. Really High.
The reaction, though, must be taken within the current context. Over the past few weeks, tech stocks were hit by deep selloffs as markets fretted over the same question: “Is AI too expensive?”
Between skyrocketing capital expenditures, absurdly ambitious data-center budgets, and the kind of spending plans that would make even sovereign wealth funds blush, investors wondered whether Big Tech was building an AI future or an AI money pit.
Even Michael Burry stepped in, revealing positions betting against Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA and Palantir NASDAQ:PLTR . That move alone sent pockets of the market into a philosophical crisis.
After all, that’s the guy from “The Big Short” and he’s hedged against your favorite trade.
🤖 So… Are the Bulls Back?
Maybe. For now at least. But with conditions.
Nvidia’s stock more than doubled between April and late October, only to slide in recent weeks as bubble fears thickened. Year to date, the stock is still up about 30%.
Nvidia’s numbers prove that AI spending is still accelerating. But the broader question remains: Can companies actually turn those massive AI investments into profit?
Nvidia’s blowout quarter just reset the narrative:
AI demand is still real
Spending is justified
The cycle is still “virtuous,” in Huang’s words
After this earnings print, the bull case has something it desperately needed: momentum.
And momentum is a powerful thing, especially in a market that had started to doubt its favorite story.
Off to you : Do you still see room for growth in the AI space? Or is that rebound a short-term reflex? Share your views in the comments!
NVIDIA Cup and HandleThe cup and handle is a bullish continuation pattern in technical analysis that signals a potential uptrend after a period of consolidation.
It consists of two parts: a rounded, "U-shaped" cup, and a smaller, downward-sloping handle that forms on the right side of the cup.
Traders look for a breakout above the handle's resistance level, often accompanied by a spike in volume, to confirm the pattern and enter a long position.
Midterm Stock Forecast for NVIDIANASDAQ:NVDA shows weakening momentum after its extended rally, with H1 structure signaling a corrective phase. A drop from $178 toward $150 aligns with cooling AI-driven sentiment and stretched valuation multiples. Fundamentally the long-term demand for GPUs remains strong, but midterm pricing pressure and slowing data-center spending could weigh on sentiment. A retracement to $150 would reset indicators and create a healthier base for long-term buyers.
11/25/25 - $NVDA - Norms gonna norm11/25/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:NVDA
Norms gonna norm
- there are basically two things that you can own in this world
- AI and L1s (BTC and ETH)
- in AI landia, there's the king
- you own the kings
- "yuh but V google's making chips". yes. so does AMD... AVGO... MRVL...
- fade the norms. 25x PE for NVDA, laughably easy at this pt.
- higher.
V
Can NVDA Hold the Pullback Zone and Extend the Uptrend?🔥 NVDA Bullish Pullback Playbook – Thief-Style Swing Setup 🚀🕵️♂️
Hey traders & my fellow Thief OG’s 😎🕶️ — here’s a clean, polished, TradingView-friendly version of my NVDA Swing Trade Playbook with a professional + funny touch. Let’s get to the setup 👇🔥
📌 Asset
NVDA – NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ)
Swing Trade | Momentum | Trend-Following Setup
📈 Plan: Bullish Pullback Strategy (Pending Orders Active)
The trend is strong, the buyers are steady, and NVDA is still delivering clean higher-lows. We're waiting for either a breakout continuation or a discounted pullback entry. 📊⚡
🎯 Entry Zones
1️⃣ Breakout Entry – Momentum Thief Mode 🥷⚡
Enter after clearing the nearest resistance at $191.00
• Clean breakout
• Volume confirmation
• Trend continuation strength
2️⃣ Pullback Entry – SuperTrend ATR Sniper Entry 🎯📉
Watch for a discounted pullback near $170.00 around the SuperTrend ATR zone.
• Trend support retest
• Lower-risk entry
• Ideal for swing traders who wait for “patience-pays entries” 😎
🛡️ Stop-Loss (Thief Style – Risk First)
Breakout Entry SL → $180.00
SuperTrend Pullback SL → $160.00
Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s) ❤️
I’m NOT recommending you use only my SL. Choose your own levels — you make the money, you protect the money. Trade at your own risk 🔐⚠️
🎯 Target (Take-Profit Zone)
Our target → $210.00
Why?
• Strong resistance zone
• Overbought region historically
• Buyer trap zone where police force 🚔👮♂️ usually waits — so escape with profits early 😂💨
Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s) 🙌
I’m NOT recommending you set my TP only. Choose your own TP — your money, your exit. Trade with responsibility 💼💰
🔍 Related Pairs to Watch (Correlation Insights + Key Notes)
NASDAQ:AMD
• High positive correlation with NVDA
• When AMD shows volume expansion, NVDA often follows
• Good for momentum confirmation 🔥
NASDAQ:SOXX (iShares Semiconductor ETF)
• NVDA is a major weighted component
• ETF direction confirms big-money flow 🧠💸
• Great for spotting sector-wide risk-on / risk-off shifts
NASDAQ:QQQ (NASDAQ 100 ETF)
• NVDA is one of the heaviest weights
• If QQQ trends strongly → NVDA often mirrors
• Macro sentiment index for tech strength 📊⚡
NASDAQ:SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF)
• Clean supply/demand signals
• NVDA mirrors SMH breakouts frequently
• Helps confirm breakout validity before taking the trade
All these help you avoid fakeouts and align with overall semiconductor market strength.
✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”
⚠️ This is a thief-style trading strategy created just for fun. Trade responsibly.
Concerns on market specifically NVDA - Not financial adviceSome thoughts and concerns watching the market as an amateur investor looking at historical shifts and trends. This is not a prediction and not to be considered financial advice in any manner shape or form. It is simply a personal opinion based on my impression of the market. Please discuss any choice you make in the market regarding trades with a financial advisor or planner as this opinion is just an uneducated perspective to be taken with a grain of salt from someone who does not work in the financial industry. There are several factors I have taken into account regarding the economy, job losses, looming Debt Wall, real estate market concerns, tariff pain points for US, recession chatter, dollar weakness, US debt and my personal gut check.
Disclosure - I do not currently hold NVDA but I have a standing buy order for my personal account for NVDA at $50. I do not know the market well enough to short.
NVDA – Breakout or Pullback Setup? Nov. 20 Trade Plan1-Hour Outlook (Main Bias)
NVDA broke out of a multi-day descending channel and pushed straight into the 195.50–196 zone, which previously acted as heavy resistance on the 1-hour chart. The impulse was strong, reclaiming several key structure levels in one move.
1H Structure
* NVDA printed a strong bullish BOS after breaking the channel trendline.
* Price is currently consolidating near 195.95, right under the 200 psychological level.
* Momentum remains strong, with MACD expanding upward after a fresh crossover.
* Stochastic is elevated but not rolling over yet. Buyers still in control.
1H Key Levels
Breakout trigger: above 196
Upside targets:
* 200.00 (major psychological + GEX resistance)
* 202.50–203 (thin liquidity zone)
Support zone: 187.50–188
Bears gain control only below: 182.80
1H Trading Idea
Bullish scenario:
If NVDA holds above 192.50–193.00 and reclaims 196 cleanly, momentum favors an extension toward the 200–202.50 zone. Break above 200 opens the next leg of gamma pressure.
Bearish scenario:
Valid only if price rejects 196 with a full-body reversal candle. Downside magnets sit at 192 and 188.
15-Minute Outlook (Execution Timeframe)
NVDA is consolidating after a strong vertical impulse. Price formed a BOS on the 15M and is now pulling back slightly into the minor supply zone at 195–196.
15M Structure
* Clean sequence: CHoCH → BOS → impulsive breakout → consolidation.
* EMAs are stacked bullish and acting as dynamic support.
* The recent FVG at 191.50–192.20 held well, confirming bullish continuation structure.
15M Trading Setups
Bullish entry:
* Prefer retrace into 193.80–194.30
* Look for bullish engulfing or a wick rejection
* Targets: 196 → 200
* Stop: below 192.70
Breakout entry:
* Enter on clean break of 196
* Stop below last swing low
* Targets: 198.50 → 200–202
Bearish scalp:
* Only valid if NVDA repeatedly rejects 196
* Target: 193.50
* Invalid if price breaks 196
GEX Confirmation
Based on the NVDA GEX chart:
Bullish Signals
* Highest positive NETGEX sits at 200, creating a natural upside magnet.
* Large call walls at 196, 200, 202.50, supporting upward drift.
* Positive GEX blocks (GEX9, GEX10) align with continuation toward 200–203.
* Put walls are weak above 188 — little downside defense for bears.
Interpretation
GEX strongly favors upside continuation as long as NVDA remains above 192–193.
A break above 196 triggers dealer hedging, pushing price toward 200.
Options Trading Plan (GEX-Based)
Bullish Plan
If price breaks above 196 with momentum:
Contracts to consider:
* 197.5C
* 200C
Targets:
* 198.50 → 200 → 202.50
Reason:
Above 196, market makers are forced to hedge upward, accelerating price toward the strongest GEX cluster at 200.
Bearish Plan
Only valid if NVDA rejects 196 with strong selling:
Contracts to consider:
* 193P
* 190P
Targets:
* 193.50 → 192.00
Reason:
Below 193, GEX becomes lighter and liquidity flows toward 188.
Final Bias for Nov. 20
NVDA is showing strong bullish structure after breaking the descending channel.
As long as price holds above 192–193, the probability of testing 196 and pushing toward 200 remains high.
Bearish setups only activate with a clean rejection at 196.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always perform independent research and manage risk appropriately.
NVDA Cooked!?If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment!
NVDA Price Action Update: Key Levels To Watch
NVDA is cooked if it cannot reclaim the key levels overhead. Price is currently testing 178 and this area is critical for determining whether buyers still have any momentum left.
To flip this structure back upward, NVDA needs an impulse through 178 and then 184. Anything that retraces in a choppy or corrective manner within the impulsive range from 195 is suspect and suggests continuation lower.
If buyers fail to generate an impulsive move from here, the downside levels below come back into play. Seller control increases with every failed retest and every weak bounce.
This is a simple structure play. Impulsive strength is required to shift control. Corrective behavior keeps the door open for further decline.
Trade safe and trade clarity.
NVDA Head and Shoulders- Neckline BrokenNvidia’s bear case rests on one core idea: the stock price assumes a flawless, world-eating AI future, and markets almost never deliver on “perfection narratives.” NVDA trades at extreme valuation multiples for a hardware-driven, highly cyclical business. Those multiples only hold if AI infrastructure spending keeps compounding at its current breathtaking pace for years. But that demand is dangerously concentrated in a handful of hyperscalers who are spending now and rationalizing later. Michael Burry’s recent argument sharpens this point: he claims true end-demand for AI horsepower is vastly overstated, and that much of the current GPU frenzy is a self-reinforcing loop of capital, hype, and accounting gimmicks rather than broad, organic need. If boards pause to question real ROI — or if the circular funding loop breaks — Nvidia’s revenue curve can flatten quickly, dragging the valuation down with it.
Competition, long dismissed by NVIDIA bulls, is another structural headwind. AMD is now shipping accelerators that hyperscalers are actually integrating, and every major cloud provider is building in-house silicon to reduce dependence on NVDA’s margins. Even if Nvidia maintains leadership, it doesn’t need to lose the crown to lose the multiple — slight shifts in workload allocation or a handful of missed design wins are enough to pressure margins. And Burry’s critique deepens this point: he argues Nvidia’s reported profitability is flattered by depreciation assumptions and massive stock-based compensation that buybacks have failed to offset — meaning the “true” economic profit is less bulletproof than headlines suggest. Add to that the fact that U.S. export controls have effectively erased the China data-center market — once 20–25% of revenues — and expectations of a seamless global TAM look increasingly unrealistic.
Technically, NVDA is doing exactly what a euphoric, overowned stock does when gravity starts tugging: momentum is fading, the price is slipping under short-term moving averages, and reactions to spectacular earnings have been strangely sluggish. That’s often the early signature of distribution rather than accumulation. And this lines up directly with Burry’s broader thesis: when a narrative becomes crowded and reflexive, the slightest wobble triggers violent air pockets. NVDA has become the ultimate proxy for the AI boom, the most crowded long in the market — meaning it’s the first thing funds sell when risk appetite cools, and the last thing buyers chase during corrections.
Put simply, Nvidia is a phenomenal company priced as if nothing can ever go wrong — while Burry is arguing that much of what looks “perfect” is not what it seems. The bear case isn’t that Nvidia collapses. It’s that the AI boom normalizes, competition accelerates, accounting realities catch up, margins slip toward something earthbound, and investors recalibrate how much they’re willing to pay. In that world, NVDA doesn’t need bad news to fall. It only needs the news to arrive slightly less euphoric than the fantasies currently baked into the price.
#NVDA #Bearish #HeadandShoulders #MichaelBurry
NVDA Head and Shoulders- Dec Rate Cuts has changed setupNvidia’s setup has shifted. With the Fed signaling a likely rate cut on December 10th, the market will start baking that optimism into asset prices ahead of time. When monetary conditions ease, high-valuation tech often gets an extra tailwind, which means the expected head-and-shoulders pattern on NVDA may fail to play out cleanly. The chart might still roll over, but the macro backdrop now works against a decisive breakdown. Short positions here demand caution.
Original post
Nvidia’s bear case rests on one core idea: the stock price assumes a flawless, world-eating AI future, and markets almost never deliver on “perfection narratives.” NVDA trades at extreme valuation multiples for a hardware-driven, highly cyclical business. Those multiples only hold if AI infrastructure spending keeps compounding at its current breathtaking pace for years. But that demand is dangerously concentrated in a handful of hyperscalers who are spending now and rationalizing later. Michael Burry’s recent argument sharpens this point: he claims true end-demand for AI horsepower is vastly overstated, and that much of the current GPU frenzy is a self-reinforcing loop of capital, hype, and accounting gimmicks rather than broad, organic need. If boards pause to question real ROI, or if the circular funding loop breaks Nvidia’s revenue curve can flatten quickly, dragging the valuation down with it.
Competition, long dismissed by NVIDIA bulls, is another structural headwind. AMD is now shipping accelerators that hyperscalers are actually integrating, and every major cloud provider is building in-house silicon to reduce dependence on NVDA’s margins. Even if Nvidia maintains leadership, it doesn’t need to lose the crown to lose the multiple, slight shifts in workload allocation or a handful of missed design wins are enough to pressure margins. And Burry’s critique deepens this point: he argues Nvidia’s reported profitability is flattered by depreciation assumptions and massive stock-based compensation that buybacks have failed to offset, meaning the “true” economic profit is less bulletproof than headlines suggest. Add to that the fact that U.S. export controls have effectively erased the China data-center market, once 20–25% of revenues and expectations of a seamless global TAM look increasingly unrealistic.
Technically, NVDA is doing exactly what a euphoric, overowned stock does when gravity starts tugging: momentum is fading, the price is slipping under short-term moving averages, and reactions to spectacular earnings have been strangely sluggish. That’s often the early signature of distribution rather than accumulation. And this lines up directly with Burry’s broader thesis: when a narrative becomes crowded and reflexive, the slightest wobble triggers violent air pockets. NVDA has become the ultimate proxy for the AI boom, the most crowded long in the market, meaning it’s the first thing funds sell when risk appetite cools, and the last thing buyers chase during corrections.
Put simply, Nvidia is a phenomenal company priced as if nothing can ever go wrong, while Burry is arguing that much of what looks “perfect” is not what it seems. The bear case isn’t that Nvidia collapses. It’s that the AI boom normalizes, competition accelerates, accounting realities catch up, margins slip toward something earthbound, and investors recalibrate how much they’re willing to pay. In that world, NVDA doesn’t need bad news to fall. It only needs the news to arrive slightly less euphoric than the fantasies currently baked into the price.
#NVDA #Bearish #HeadandShoulders #MichaelBurry
Analysis of the Nvidia (NVDA) Share ChartAnalysis of the Nvidia (NVDA) Share Chart
Last week, we published a post titled “Ahead of Nvidia’s (NVDA) Earnings: How the Price Could Move”, in which we:
→ Drew an ascending channel (shown in blue);
→ Suggested that market participants’ overly high expectations would likely not be met when earnings were released, leading to a decline in NVDA’s price towards the lower boundary of the ascending channel, where support lies at $165.
In reality, the earnings report turned out to be very strong:
→ Gross revenue: actual = $57bn, forecast = ~$54.9bn.
→ Earnings per share (EPS): actual = $1.30, forecast = $1.26 (previous quarter = $1.05).
The surge in price with a bullish gap towards point A reflected the initial reaction to the strong figures, but the share price then began to fall (reaching a two-month low), thereby confirming our expectations.
Technical Analysis of the Nvidia (NVDA) Chart
An analysis of NVDA’s price action suggests that the current situation can be viewed as a correction (shown with red lines), forming within an expanded ascending channel.
If NVDA’s share price declines towards the $165 level, where the lower boundary of the channel lies, this could encourage the bulls to attempt to resume the 2025 uptrend and mount a new push towards the psychological $200 mark.
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I guess it is a bubble...When the CEO is selling, the CFO is selling, SoftBank is unloading, Peter Thiel is selling, and Michael Burry is short, you have to stop and ask the only question that matters:
Is it actually smart to buy the dip here?
I didn’t even bother checking the latest SMH holdings, but if anyone wants to post the updated weightings, it would help frame how much passive-flow risk still sits above price.
The real question is whether there’s room left on the downside and whether this is anywhere near a bottom. If you want an example of how low “too low” can go, just study META during its unwinding. Fundamentals didn’t matter. Valuation didn’t matter. Price just kept repricing until forced sellers were done.
The one positive about this environment is volatility. When liquidity thins out and ranges widen, both sides can pull money out — but only if you treat it like a scalp environment, not a swing-long hero trade.
Because think about it rationally:
Do you want to be the one buying while billionaires, insiders, and institutions are selling into strength?
We’re moving into year-end — historically the period where funds clean books, tax-loss harvest, and unwind risk. Pair that with the probability of crypto-liquidation bleed-through, and you can easily get a chain reaction. Markets don’t fall in straight lines; they fall like Jenga blocks, dominoes, or a card tower collapsing from the bottom up.
This isn’t doom posting — it’s just market structure.
Flow dictates direction, and right now the flow is one-directional.
Nvidia likely to sell off throughout December 2025Nvidia has dominated 2025 with an exceptional upward trend, driven by relentless AI infrastructure demand. Recently, NVDA has finally broken below that steep up-channel — a signal that the stock may need a short-term cooldown before its next leg higher.
A retracement into the mid-$150 range would bring price back to a well-established support zone visible on the chart. This would represent a constructive pullback rather than a change in the long-term trend, especially heading into new product and AI-spending catalysts expected in early 2026.
For perspective: just three years ago, NASDAQ:NVDA was trading near $12 per share — a staggering +1,375% gain in only 36 months. Given that magnitude of appreciation, a modest pullback to $150 should be viewed as healthy consolidation rather than bearish pressure.
NVDA vs. The Narrative: Why I’m Holding Through the NoiseWhile headlines scream "bubble" and Michael Burry loads up on short positions, I’m doubling down on what the charts are actually saying — not the fear-based narratives. This post is for those who trust price structure, volume psychology, and timeframe alignment over media noise. Let’s dive in.
Chart Structure Speaks Louder Than Opinions
Across all timeframes — from 4H to 6M — NVDA and the broader S&P are forming morning star dojis, a powerful reversal signal. These candles are whispering accumulation. Retail isn’t listening. Smart money already has.
Key Observations:
SPY & SPXL (S&P 500 ETFs): Forming higher lows with bullish fib retracements holding tight. No sign of weakness, despite Burry’s apocalyptic tone.
NVDA (NASDAQ):
The 6M chart shows clear magnet zones at 212 and 392.
An unfilled liquidity gap from the 390s is now acting as a gravitational pull — price will revisit it.
Every timeframe confirms this momentum is building for a breakout, not breakdown.
NVDA/USD Confluence: Mirrors the NVDA/NASDAQ structure almost 1:1. This correlation across instruments adds major conviction to the thesis.
Psychology Check: Why I Disagree with Michael Burry
Burry may be shorting because of macroeconomic risk. Or, maybe he’s playing the same game Melvin Capital did — betting retail will panic.
But I believe he’s underestimating the AI revolution, semiconductor demand, and the market’s memory of missed upside in prior decades.
The dot-com boom had hype, yes — but this has utility. AI isn’t a buzzword anymore. It’s infrastructure. And NVDA is at the core.
Liquidity will return. The market will wake up. And those who held the line will reap the rewards.
Final Words:
The media lies. Liquidity hides. But candlesticks don’t fake structure.
If NVDA fills its liquidity magnet, hits prior highs, or simply rides the S&P's tide — the upside is mathematically undeniable.
To those holding — congratulations.
To the bears — good luck.
To Burry — you might be early, but you might also be wrong.
- MoNí
NVDA vs AVGO: The Battle for the AI Throne Has Begun⚡A New Leader Emerges in the Semiconductors
For years, NVDA was the undisputed titan — the gravitational center of the semiconductor universe.
But now, the geometry tells a different story.
THE CHARTS 📐
Both charts use the same natural scaling:
1° of time = $1 of price per unit.
And here’s the critical observation:
NVDA has broken beneath its 1° angle.
AVGO has recaptured and accelerated above its 1° angle.
AVGO has already made new all-time highs.
During a semiconductor correction.
While SMH was down.
While the S&P 500 retraced.
The real question still remains however, are we still in the early innings of the AI Boom?
SMH — The Semiconductor Supercycle Update
The Structure That Defines the AI Era🏛️
The 2023–2027 channel is the master structure for this entire semiconductor cycle.
SMH bounced precisely where the primary and secondary angles intersect.
🚀 Market Knots — Speed & Acceleration Confirm the Turn
Speed found support precisely at the median line around 126 Market Knots — the natural mid-energy band where major long-term advances restart.
Acceleration appears to have:
🔻spiked,
📉bottomed, and
is now curling upward.
Poised to turn positive
The measurements point to a weekly bottom and another wave higher in this semiconductor cycle fueled by AI growth.
The Leadership Rotation🏅 (The Baton Moment)
AVGO is emerging as the structural leader of the AI supercycle.
It has already demonstrated exceptional strength:
holding its 1° angle, breaking into new all-time highs, and accelerating while the rest of the semiconductor sector underperformed.
This behavior is not random.
It reflects Broadcom’s unique position at the infrastructure core of AI — the networking, switching, optical, and custom ASIC layer that becomes the bottleneck after GPUs.
As the semiconductor supercycle builds, AVGO steps forward as the defining leader of the AI boom
NVDA Corrective Structure Completing? Critical Fib & Trendline CNVIDIA is completing an ABC correction after the recent top. Price is now sitting on a strong support area around 174–177, where multiple Fibonacci levels and a long-term trendline meet.
If this zone holds, NVDA may start a new move up toward 182–194.
If it breaks below 174, deeper levels like 164 become possible.
Watching for a reaction here to confirm the next direction.
NVDA Katy AI Analysis – Neutral, Monitor for BreakoutNVDA QuantSignals Katy 1M Prediction – 2025-11-24
Current Price: $179.09
Final Prediction: $179.64 (+0.30%)
30-min Target: $179.46 (+0.20%)
Trend: NEUTRAL
Confidence: 55%
Volatility: 13.3%
⚠️ Trade Signal:
No trade generated – insufficient confidence and move size
🧠 Analysis Summary:
Katy AI shows minor upside but not enough for actionable entry
Low expected movement implies limited risk/reward opportunity
Traders may monitor for upcoming catalysts or volatility spikes
NVDA buy zone NVDA has had some bearish news recently despite very strong earnings. I believe this was the extent of the pullback and the stock has reached a local weekly demand zone. Given the multi year strength I doubt it pulls back to 130-140 but anything is possible. If I enter the trade here I’d be net long.






















