Trade ideas
SOLANA – Last Line of Defense🚨 CRYPTO:SOLUSD has completed a 3-wave corrective pullback, testing the April trendline and reaching the equal legs support zone at $175–$160. This area is acting as a potential launchpad for a bounce through the rest of the month.
💥 Can SOL break into new highs, or will this bounce form a lower high, signaling a possible trend reversal?
Fake breakout SOLSOL is breaking out of its channel. With the upcoming news on potential rate cuts, anything could happen. From a technical perspective, we’re approaching the 0.78 Fib level sitting right at a strong weekly resistance around $251.88. A fakeout could occur, and prices might possibly drop to the $170–$150 area.
Solana Faces Bearish Pressure Below $190 SupportHi everyone!
Solana appears to be forming a double top pattern near the $250 zone, signaling potential bearish momentum. After failing to sustain above the upper channel resistance, the price broke below the midline support, confirming short-term weakness.
Currently, SOL is retesting the neckline area around $190. If it fails to reclaim this level, further downside is likely. The next key support zones lie around $165 and $147, aligning with the previous structure and the lower channel boundary.
A clean break below $165 would likely accelerate the move toward $147, confirming a deeper correction within the broader ascending channel.
Bias: Bearish below $190
potential targets at $165 → $147.
SOLUSD: Observation🧩 Macro Context
Crypto liquidity improving — BTC dominance stabilizing near 54%.
Fed’s rate stance softening could support risk assets.
Institutional accumulation on Solana ecosystem (DeFi volume and NFTs rising again).
Q4 historically favors altcoin rotation, and Solana remains a top liquidity magnet post-Ethereum.
🔮 WaverVanir Forecast
If Solana holds $181.45 and reclaims $200+, the path to $295–$300 opens into Q1 2026.
However, a break below $175 invalidates the bullish bias and re-enters deep discount territory.
DO NOT BUY THE DIP!! It can go lower. My overall bias for Solana is bullish, but I must say it has been very frustrating asset to hold and trade for the last 18 months.
There are a lot of positive news coming up in the Solana ecosystem and the value of Solana should be much higher than the current price. However, the current chart set up is very bearish and I think it can potentially go lower. I will happily revise my view when the situation changes but I won't be buying the dip for the reasons below:
Weekly:
Stochastic indicator has formed a very clear negative divergence.
RSI lines have crossed to the downside and breached below the ascending trendline.
MACD histogram is losing bullish momentum and lines are about to cross (not confirmed)
The price has failed to go above not only the previous higher high, but also the previous cycle's all time high.
The price has breached below the ascending trendline, EMA 12 and EMA 21. (no confirmed until the end of tomorrow)
There is an unmitigated fair value gap (order block?) around $100 and $123 area (see light blue rectangular block). That is the April low when the market started to have a V-shape recovery.
I have been hearing over and over in the mainstream media that at the market bottom in April 2025, retail investors went in and bought the dip, but institutional players missed the rally by staying on the sideline. I am just wondering if big players are trying to push the price to the level where they were initially left behind. It is just my speculation, but the price is getting closer to that level.
Daily:
A daily candle closed below EMA55 and is now hovering over EMA200.
The price broke below the first ascending trendline (red line) and now moving toward the second one (black one)
All three momentum indicators have decisively entered the bear zone.
Conclusions:
I will only focus on daily and weekly charts for now. I have been watching the price move in the lower time frames and the price is refusing to go above yesterday's closing price, which makes me think there are lots of selling pressures still.
Good luck, everyone. I hope you are doing ok in this wild market.
Solana, big move in NovemberSolana appears to be forming a pennant, indicates a big move in November, no idea which way, but I would lean towards the bullish side.
Might do a put protected long trade, I don't trust cryptos enough not to use protection, lol. This will probably coincide with BTC daily MFI going oversold because cryptos tend to move together. (See my BTC plot)
Solana - Market structure Shift - The Levels to be aware of !In this video I look at the higher time frame and point out some key reasons of why I'm expecting a deeper pullback as well as local time frame where we can see the clear levels to be taken if your looking to accumulate or open longs .
Aside from the Solana coin I look at the Eth/Btc pair and BTC which ultimately determines the fate of the alt coin market .
Any questions please feel free to ask in the comments section below
Solana and Bitcoin Update ! Whats Next Quick update covering BTC and Solana .
I had done videos previously anticipating this move to the downside and wanted to cover the current price action and add a little clarity to the situation .
We have had a great reaction off of BTC so far and thus some alts have also followed suit .
Bitcoin holds the fate for the alts so we want to see btc hold the current range 113K .
Take it level by level and dont panic . This is a great opportunity but we want to see a sign of strength in SOL before taking positions .
SOLUSD 4H: $215 Support Lost, Eyeing $200-205 Trend Change Zone
SOLUSD 4H: $215 Support Lost, Eyeing $200-205 Trend Change Zone
Chart Overview:
On the 4-hour timeframe, Solana (SOL/USD) has undergone a significant shift in market dynamics. After a strong bullish rally in late September and early October, the price has broken down from a consolidation pattern, signaling a clear return of bearish momentum.
Recent Price Action:
Solana had a robust recovery from its late September lows (around 195-200), driving price upward along an ascending green trendline. This bullish surge pushed SOL back towards the higher resistance zones. However, the rally started to lose steam as it approached the 240 Flip Zone and encountered strong selling pressure below the 250 Key Resistance (Sell Order Block).
Following this, SOL entered a period of consolidation, attempting to maintain structure above the 220 to 224 Deciding Area. This zone acted as a critical battleground for bulls and bears. Unfortunately for bulls, the ascending green trendline that had supported the rally was broken decisively. This breakdown was then confirmed by the price establishing a clear descending red trend channel, indicating a new bearish trend.
The crucial development is the recent breakdown below the 215 Key Support. This level, which offered bounces in the past, has been lost, and the price is now accelerating downwards, firming up the bearish outlook.
Key Resistance Levels to Watch:
215 Key Support (now Resistance): This is the immediate hurdle for any attempted rebound. Price must reclaim and hold this level to alleviate immediate bearish pressure.
220 to 224 Deciding Area: A pivotal zone. A successful move back above here would suggest a potential shift in momentum, but it will face resistance from the descending red trendline.
230 1st Resistance: A significant horizontal resistance level that acted as a ceiling during the recent consolidation.
240 Flip Zone: This area previously served as both support and resistance, and would be a strong barrier for any substantial recovery.
250 Key Resistance (Sell Order Block): The ultimate overhead resistance, representing the peak of the prior rally and a significant supply zone.
Key Support Levels to Monitor:
With Solana currently trading around 209 and actively breaking down:
200 to 205, Trend Change: This is the most critical immediate support zone. This area marked the low before the previous bullish rally began. A bounce here is crucial for bulls to prevent a deeper correction.
Significance: A break below this zone would indicate a potential trend change back to a more significant bearish structure, opening the door for much lower prices not visible on this chart.
Outlook & Scenarios:
Bearish Scenario: If Solana fails to find strong buying interest and support within the 200 to 205, Trend Change zone, a decisive break below this range would confirm a deeper bearish trend. This could lead to an accelerated move towards unexplored lower price levels.
Bullish Scenario: For bulls to regain control, SOL needs to first stabilize and strongly reject further downside at the 200 to 205 zone. A subsequent move to reclaim the 215 Key Support (turning it back into support) and then breaking above the 220 to 224 Deciding Area and the descending red trend channel would be necessary to signal a potential reversal or a return to bullish consolidation.
Conclusion:
Solana is currently under strong bearish pressure on the 4-hour chart, having decisively broken below the 215 Key Support and consolidating within a descending trend channel. The market is now actively testing the critical 200 to 205, Trend Change zone. Traders should remain highly vigilant, as the reaction at this level will be pivotal in determining Solana's short-to-medium-term direction. A failure to hold this support could open the floodgates for further downside, while a strong bounce could offer a glimmer of hope for a recovery.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
Solana Projection + ThesisChart is time synced to projection.
Q4 2025-Q1 2026
Market-wide cool off combined with extended government shutdown cause panic and doubt within all assets. BTC is relatively strong, but still dips near 100k. Narrative trap of "bear market" "cycle is over" etc. Massive emotion-rooted doubt within crypto despite strength.
Q2 2026+
Assets front-run fed chair change into the spring, and upon a new trump appointed chair in May 2026, all assets begin to rally hard into the fall. BTC and crypto lead this liquidity cycle behind a risk-on federal policy and macro playing field. Fed pivot, massive stablecoin growth (dominated by Solana).
4 years cycles are over. This is the explosive step forwards into mass adoption for BTC and crypto as a whole. Solana will dominate alts with DATs, ETFs with staking, the best stablecoin APY on the planet, and transactions at the speed of light.
Sol/Usdt - Breakout Or BreakdownResistance Zone
A green shaded area labeled "Resistance" indicates a key price level where price has previously failed to break higher.
This is a supply zone where sellers have stepped in multiple times.
Price has tested this resistance area several times but failed to break out convincingly.
2. CHoCH (Change of Character)
"CHoCH" is marked below the resistance, signaling a trend shift from bullish to bearish.
Typically, a CHoCH occurs when price breaks a recent higher low—indicating weakening bullish momentum and potential start of bearish move.
3. Decision Point
Labeled in blue as “Decision Point”.
This is a critical area where price may:
Break above and confirm a bullish continuation.
Reject and fall, confirming bearish pressure.
This zone could be used to plan entries based on confirmation (e.g., breakout or rejection).
4. Target Scenarios
Two possible scenarios drawn with arrows:
Bullish scenario: If price breaks above the decision point/resistance, the next target lies in the upper 230s or beyond.
Bearish scenario: If price rejects from this zone, it could lead to a bearish continuation, targeting lower support levels.
5. Volume
Volume bars at the bottom show varying levels of interest.
Increasing red volume toward the CHoCH indicates strong selling pressure.
Conclusion / Trading Plan
Watch the Decision Point zone closely.
Bullish bias: On a breakout with strong volume and bullish candle close above resistance.
Bearish bias: On rejection from the resistance zone with a lower high and a strong bearish candle.
Use tight risk management due to the proximity of volatility around the decision point.
SOL: Undervalued Layer1 Amid #SOL Hype? $380 in Sight?SOL: Undervalued Layer1 Amid #SOL Hype? $380 in Sight?
Price $210.94 (-1.07%), fueled by TVL $12.2B surge and X airdrops, undervalued with 31.83% YTD, questioning if ETF inflows drive breakout.
Fundamental Analysis
Market cap $114.55B, TVL $12.2B up 57% 6M, supply growth stable; Lynch-like growth emphasis on 198% TVL rise, PEG adapted low vs peers; DCF projects $300+ on adoption moat; opportunity cost vs ETH favors efficiency, inversion warns outages.
Positive:
3.88% monthly rise.
67% staked.
Negative:
High volatility.
Rival competition.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths: Fast DeFi hub.
Weaknesses: Past downtimes.
Opportunities: ETF in #Altseason.
Threats: Regulations.
Technical Analysis
Sell signal short-term. Price: $210.94, VWAP N/A. Key indicators: RSI: Below 40/oversold.
MACD: N/A.
Moving Averages: Neutral.Support/Resistance: $177/$214. Patterns/Momentum: Potential rebound. Bullish | Bearish.
Scenarios and Risk Management
Bullish: Break $214, DCA to $380 on hype; second-order thinking amplifies network effects.
Bearish: To $150.
Neutral: Range $177-214.Risk Tips: 10% stops, diversify crypto, DCA weekly.
Conclusion/Outlook
Bullish on ecosystem, lollapalooza from #Crypto trends parabolic. Watch ETFs. Fits layer1 theme with #SOL upside. Take? Comment!
Solana: Trendline Breakdown & Support Test
Solana: Trendline Breakdown & Support Test
Solana (SOLUSD) on the 4-hour timeframe has recently broken down from its ascending trendline and is currently testing the "220 to 224 Immediate Support" zone, trading around 222.04 after a significant drop.
Bullish Scenario: For a reversal, SOL must reclaim and hold above the "220-224 Immediate Sup-port" and push past the "230" level (which was previously support), targeting "240 current Re-sistance".
Bearish Scenario (Immediate): If Solana fails to maintain the "220 to 224 Immediate Support" or gets rejected when attempting to retest the broken trendline from below, it would signal further bearish pressure, leading to a test of the "215 Key Support."
Bearish Scenario (Deeper): A confirmed breakdown below the "215 Key Support" would invalidate the recent bullish structure and likely lead to a deeper retracement towards the critical "200 to 205, Trend Change" zone, where a significant re-evaluation of the trend would be necessary.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
SOLUSD H4 | Could we see a bearish reversal from here?Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see the price reacting off the sell entry which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this levle to the take profit.
Sell entry is at 238.31, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 253.39, which is a swing high resistance.
Take profit is at 216.84, which is a pullback support that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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