S&P 500 needs a correctionLooking at the volume, we see that the price is rising but the volume is declining in line with it. This indicates a high probability of a correction, in my view. Short the S&P 500 to 6146, where I expect at least an attempt to form a new bottom. Let the bears do their thing; an update will follow.
⚠️ Not financial advice.
SP500FT trade ideas
Will the U.S. Supreme Court strike down tariffs?In November 2025, the U.S. Supreme Court could issue a historic ruling: determining whether President Trump alone has the right to impose tariffs without going through Congress. Behind this legal debate lies a major issue for U.S. trade policy and the balance of powers.
The role of the Supreme Court
As the highest judicial authority in the country, the Supreme Court has the power to uphold or strike down any measure that does not comply with the Constitution. Its decisions are final and binding on all institutions. In this case, the Court must assess whether the President overstepped his authority by using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs.
Thanks to the principle of judicial review, the Court must verify whether the executive branch respects the separation of powers. For decades, presidents have invoked the IEEPA to act quickly, especially in times of economic tension. This practice, tolerated until now, is now being challenged.
A decisive choice – two possible outcomes:
• If the Court confirms presidential power, the White House will retain broad freedom to impose tariffs without immediate checks.
• If the Court limits or cancels this power, Congress will once again become the central actor in trade policy, slowing decisions but restoring institutional balance.
The issue goes beyond the legal framework. A confirmation would strengthen the executive and could encourage a more aggressive approach in international negotiations. Conversely, a restriction would force a return to legislative compromise, complicating the implementation of economic sanctions but providing greater predictability to trading partners.
A possible turning point for Fed monetary policy
This ruling could redefine U.S. trade policy for years to come. It will influence how Washington manages trade disputes, conducts international negotiations, and balances power between the President and Congress. It will also strongly impact the Fed’s future monetary policy trajectory and, more broadly, financial markets.
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WARNING S&P 500, upper bound of bullish channel reached!Is the US stock market in a speculative bubble? Is the S&P 500 index and the S&P 500 futures contract approaching a major market top as the Fed’s new monetary trajectory has sustained the bullish move initiated last April?
This question is on investors’ minds as they ride the bullish trend in place for many months, and logically, one must be on the lookout for technical exhaustion signals to protect invested capital.
We will answer this question using technical analysis of financial markets with chartist and quantitative aspects.
1. Warning: the S&P 500 index and futures have reached the upper bound of their long-term bullish channel, but no bearish divergence yet
In technical analysis, several combined factors are needed to anticipate a major market top. The combination of a major technical resistance with a price/momentum bearish divergence is particularly effective.
The chart below shows the weekly candlesticks of the S&P 500 index: after rebounding in early April at the lower bound of its long-term bullish channel, the index has now reached the upper bound at 6700 points.
However, there is currently no price/momentum bearish divergence. Nevertheless, the strong technical resistance at 6700 could trigger profit-taking.
2. The Russell 2000 index, US small caps, has reached its all-time high from late 2021
In the short term, the Russell 2000 could also pause as it is testing its record high, but this resistance may be broken this autumn thanks to the Fed’s monetary pivot.
The chart below shows the weekly candlesticks of the Russell 2000 index.
3. From a quantitative perspective, S&P 500 stocks are not yet in an extreme overheating zone
Thus, 6700 points represent major resistance for the S&P 500, which could enter a short-term consolidation phase. However, the long-term bullish trend does not seem threatened, since the market is not in an extreme overheating zone from a quantitative perspective, as shown below by the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above the 50-day simple moving average.
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This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
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All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
S&P 500 (SPX) Daily Technical & Macro Outlook🔎 S&P 500 (SPX) Daily Technical & Macro Outlook
🖼 Chart Technicals
Price closed 6600.97 (-0.10%), showing hesitation at a key fib confluence zone.
Breakdown from the short-term rising channel is confirmed with the red rejection wick.
Current price is testing the 0.786 fib (6627) and flirting with 0.702 (6599).
Key supports: 6570 (highlighted in yellow) and 6440.
Resistance overhead: 6699 (Fib 1) → 6808 (1.618 extension).
⚠️ The highlighted circle zone (crossing trend lines) suggests a decision point—either reclaim trend support or fail into deeper retracement.
🌍 Macro Environment & Catalysts
Fed policy & rate expectations: Recent inflation prints remain sticky; Powell comments could tilt the market either way.
U.S. fiscal situation: Government funding and deficit concerns add background risk.
Oil & commodities: Rising crude keeps inflation fears alive → bearish for equities.
Earnings season (upcoming Q3): Tech leaders will dictate momentum. Strong guidance = bullish recovery; misses = accelerated downside.
Global geopolitics: War threats and tariff disputes (e.g., U.S.–China tech rivalry) remain volatility triggers.
📊 Probability Outlook
Bullish case (40%)
Buyers defend 6570–6599 support zone.
Bounce could retest 6699, with breakout extension to 6807–6907.
Macro tailwind: Dovish Fed pivot or strong earnings beats.
Bearish case (60%)
Failure to hold 6570 = accelerated drop to 6440, then 6234.
Momentum shift shows sellers reclaiming control after a steep summer rally.
Macro headwind: Hot CPI/PCE data or Fed reasserting higher-for-longer stance.
🎯 Trade Alignment with Macro (Max Profit Setup)
Directional Bias: Short-term bearish unless 6699 is reclaimed.
Trade Idea (Options Swing):
Bearish put spread: Buy SPX 6570 puts, sell 6400 puts (3–4 weeks out).
Defined risk, profit zone aligns with 6440/6234 fib confluence.
High RR if macro bearish catalysts hit (CPI, Fed hawkish tone).
Hedge (Upside Risk): Small OTM calls at, 6800 can protect against squeeze.
📝 Final Take
SPX sits at a macro crossroads: holding above, 6570 keeps the bull case alive, but momentum favors downside. Traders should prepare for volatility into macro events, with 6570 → 6440 as a high-probability retracement path.
⚡️In summary: Until bulls reclaim 6699, the market leans bearish. Options spreads provide the best way to capture macro-driven swings while limiting risk.
S&P500 |H1 Rising Wedge | GTradingMethodHello Traders, happy Tuesday!
🧐 Market Overview:
I’ve been closely tracking the rising wedge forming on the 1 hour chart. While this isn’t a pattern I normally trade, the structure caught my attention, and I decided to expose a small amount of risk.
Rising wedges are generally bearish in nature - they don't always have to be though. If I zoom out, markets are over bought on the RSI and there are rsi divergences on multiple timeframes. This is one signal that markets need to cool off before advancing further. So bearing in mind the RSI divergences and the bearish pattern, I have decided to risk a small amount.
Further, if this pattern plays out, it will likely bring crypto down with it.
Ideally, I’d prefer to see a clean double top develop before committing more exposure on the short side.
📊 Trade Plan:
Entry: 6 633.7
Stop Loss: 6 648.7
Take Profit: Not predefined (will target structural support levels highlighted on the chart)
🙏 Thanks for checking out my post!
Make sure to follow me to catch the next idea and please share your thoughts – I’d like to hear if anyone else is trading this pattern or if you have any tips on how to trade it.
📌 Please note:
This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey.
SPX is absolute in the garbage now! Great inverse playI've been saying this for a few weeks now and all those who bought at the top are now official bag holders. There's a lot more bleeding that will happen. First, SMA9 crossed (check), next we'll see aggressive drop crossing SMA50, maybe some consolidation, and if it drops below SMA200, we're in for some interesting times. Don't stress, here's your play.....check out CBOE:UVIX , CBOE:MSTZ for inverse plays. There's still some nice upside. When they say, don't sell, you sell otherwise you'll be exit liquidity! I've seen this way too many times. Best of luck!
SPX - That's all folks?The world has gone nuts, but markets didn't even blink.
Now the SPX has reached it's U-MLH, which means, it's at a real extreme.
This is a level where price starts to stall, then turn.
Often we see "a last attempt" to break through, and it really could happen. But then, gravity again takes it's toll and the rocket starts to turn south.
Here are the scenarios I see:
1. Immediate turn at the U-MLH. Target is the Centerline.
2. A break of the U-MLH, then back into the fork and a fall down to the Centerline.
3. Break the U-MLH, continuation to the WL1.
The most unlikely would be 3.
In my view, Party People should have left allready, but they refused to.
And that's why this time headaches will be the least problem they face.
Wating for a short signal, to load up heavy.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 26, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the aforementioned week's trading session, the S&P 500 Index experienced a notable decline after reversing near the Inner Index Rally level of 6704, which resulted in a vigorous drop to our designated Mean Support target of 6585. The index is currently moving towards the established Key Resistance target of 6693 and is positioned to fully complete the Inner Index Rally at 6704, presenting the potential for additional upward momentum that could extend to the Outer Index Rally level of 6768.
It is imperative to recognize, however, that upon reaching the Key Resistance target of 6693 and the Inner Index Rally at 6704 targets, we may observe a retest pullback toward the Mean Support level of 6585, with the possibility of a further decline extending to the Mean Support target at 6485.
S&P500 corrective pullback Recent moves: The S&P 500 (-0.36%) extended losses, still weighed by the AI-driven selloff earlier in the week. Futures have recovered about half of yesterday’s drop, but overall momentum looks paused.
Macro drivers:
US housing data + firmer oil prices dampened expectations for rapid Fed rate cuts.
This pushed Treasury yields higher, with a fresh steepening of the curve. 10yr yields are back near pre-payrolls levels (+10–15bps since the FOMC).
Today’s jobless claims are key after last week’s sharp drop, with tomorrow’s core PCE the bigger risk event.
Politics:
US government shutdown risks escalated, with the White House ordering contingency firings if funding lapses. Market anxiety may rise as deadlines loom.
Geopolitics in focus: Erdogan’s White House visit could bring defense deals (Boeing, Lockheed Martin) and NATO tensions remain over Russia.
Implication for S&P 500 trading:
Near-term tone is cautious, with yields back up and Fed easing hopes questioned.
Watch jobless claims for confirmation of labor resilience and core PCE tomorrow as the next major directional driver.
Shutdown risks add headline volatility, while defense sector stocks could outperform if US–Turkey talks deliver aircraft orders.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6670
Resistance Level 2: 6700
Resistance Level 3: 6747
Support Level 1: 6550
Support Level 2: 6530
Support Level 3: 6500
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
S&P 500 Reaches Resistance in Both 1H and 1W TimeframesThe S&P 500 has made nearly a 40 percent run from the April dip despite rising stagflation risks. Traders have chosen to focus on earnings and AI optimism, and that is likely to continue.
However, the market has now reached a point where the upper lines of both the 1H and 1W trend channels are being tested, which should not be ignored. There is no reason to dismiss the strength of this magnificent bull market, but a bit of caution may be wise for those fully loaded with stocks or long the index via CFDs.
In the short term, there is a risk of a correction toward 6,500.
US500: 7K ASSAULT BEGINS! Mega Bull Flag Breakout 🚀 US500: 7K ASSAULT BEGINS! Mega Bull Flag Breakout 📊
Current Price: 6,646.2 | Date: Sept 27, 2025 ⏰
📈 INTRADAY TRADING SETUPS (Next 5 Days)
🎯 BULLISH SCENARIO
Entry Zone: 6,630 - 6,650 📍
Stop Loss: 6,590 🛑
Target 1: 6,720 🎯
Target 2: 6,780 🚀
🎯 BEARISH SCENARIO
Entry Zone: 6,670 - 6,690 📍
Stop Loss: 6,720 🛑
Target 1: 6,580 🎯
Target 2: 6,520 📉
🔍 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BREAKDOWN
📊 KEY INDICATORS STATUS:
RSI (14): 61.2 ⚡ *Bullish Momentum Building*
Bollinger Bands: Coiling for Expansion 🔥
VWAP: 6,635 - Acting as Launch Pad 💪
EMA 50: 6,610 ✅ *Golden Cross Confirmed*
Volume: Institutional Accumulation 📊
🌊 WAVE ANALYSIS:
Elliott Wave: Wave 4 Triangle Complete 🌊
Target: Wave 5 Extension to 7,000+ 🎯
🔄 HARMONIC PATTERNS:
Bullish Butterfly at 6,600 Support ✨
ABCD Pattern targeting 6,780 🔄
⚖️ SWING TRADING OUTLOOK (1-4 Weeks)
🚀 BULLISH TARGETS:
Psychological: 7,000 🏆
Monthly Target: 6,850 🌙
Gann Resistance: 6,900 ⭐
📉 BEARISH INVALIDATION:
Weekly Support: 6,550 ⚠️
Critical Level: 6,480 🚨
🎭 MARKET STRUCTURE:
Trend: Ascending Triangle 💪
Momentum: Coiling Energy 🔥
Wyckoff Phase: Spring Loading 📈
Ichimoku: Bullish Cloud Break 🟢
🏆 MEGA PATTERN ALERT:
Bull Flag Pole: 6,400 → 6,700 📏
Flag Consolidation: 6,600-6,680 🚩
Breakout Target: 6,980 (300pt move!) 💥
⚡ RISK MANAGEMENT:
Max Risk per Trade: 1.5% 🛡️
R:R Ratio: Minimum 1:2.5 ⚖️
Breakout Confirmation: 6,690 close 📏
🌍 MARKET CATALYSTS:
Q3 Earnings Beating Expectations 📈
Fed Dovish Stance Supporting Risk-On 🏛️
Economic Resilience Narrative Strong 💼
🔥 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
Breakout Zone: 6,680-6,700 💥
Support Cluster: 6,620 | 6,580 | 6,550 🛡️
Resistance: 6,720 | 6,780 | 6,850 🚧
🎯 FINAL VERDICT:
S&P500 primed for EXPLOSIVE 7K RALLY! 🚀
Bull flag completion = 300+ point surge! 💯
Multiple timeframes align perfectly! 📈
Trade Management: Scale into dips above 6,620 💎
Breakout Alert: Watch 6,690 decisive close! 🔔
---
*⚠️ Disclaimer: High-risk trading. Use strict risk management. Educational analysis only.*
For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade)
I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors.
Sincerely,
Shunya.Trade
Website: shunya dot trade
🔔 Follow for 7K Journey Updates | 💬 What's Your 7K Timeline?
Powell cutting rates? But why would he?📉 Powell cutting rates? 100% priced in. Even talk of 1–2% slashes. But why would he?
Let’s look at what the media ignores:
🇮🇳 Reports suggest India plans to cut its US Treasury holdings by up to 50% by 2025. That could mean roughly $450B hitting the market. Who’s going to buy that debt? The Fed? They’re already running negative equity — something that would be called insolvency for any private company.
Lowering rates would allow the US government (and its billionaire buddies) to borrow even more cheap money — not to fix the economy, but to speculate, pump Bitcoin, and trash the dollar further. Inflation? Even worse.
The US economy shows all the symptoms of a recession: layoffs rising, real wages falling, manufacturing shrinking. Official GDP numbers still look positive, but let’s not forget those “revisions” that always come later. Translation: the data is constantly massaged.
So what’s the real goal? Probably to juice the housing market. But let’s be honest: US mortgage rates today are just average by historical standards. Russia’s rates are higher, yet their currency and balance sheet look healthier because they don’t live off endless money printing.
The core problem is clear: reckless dollar printing to protect billionaire portfolios. And Powell? If he truly had conviction, he wouldn’t touch the rate at all.
The S&P 500 Index Remains Positive Against the OddsThe S&P 500 Index Remains Positive Against the Odds
Today, the S&P 500 Index is trading close to a new all-time high, having opened Monday above 6,675 points. This reflects continued optimism among market participants despite factors such as:
→ The risk of a U.S. government shutdown on 1 October.
Today, President Trump will meet with Democratic and Republican leaders in Congress to try to prevent a halt to government funding. However, Reuters reports that chances of reaching an agreement are slim. At the same time, Bank of America analysts remain calm, noting that a shutdown would shave only around 0.1% off GDP per week, and historically such closures have had little impact on financial markets.
→ Jerome Powell’s hawkish stance at the September Federal Reserve meeting.
Nevertheless, most market participants expect the Fed to make another move towards cutting rates at its next meeting on 29 October. The publication of the PCE index on Friday increased this likelihood, as the figures came in line with forecasts, reducing the risk of a renewed inflation surge.
Technical Analysis of the E-mini S&P 500 Chart
On 17 September, analysing the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 Index, we noted:
→ the price continues to fluctuate within an ascending channel, highlighted in blue;
→ the long body of the bullish candle on 11 September points to strong buyer pressure, indicating an imbalance, or, in Smart Money Concept terminology, a Fair Value Gap (FVG).
At present, the channel remains relevant, but it has expanded — bullish sentiment has shifted the key line (marked in orange) from resistance to support. At the same time, the FVG zone has confirmed its role as support.
Possible developments: the chart indicates a buyer advantage:
→ strong demand near the channel’s median (evident in the long lower shadows from Friday, marked with an arrow);
→ buying activity has been strong enough to push the price back (for now) within the ascending channel.
If buyer dominance continues, this could lead to a new all-time high, testing the upper boundary of the channel. From a bearish perspective:
→ the psychological level of 6,700 could act as resistance;
→ continued growth at Monday’s open could push the RSI indicator into overbought territory, creating potential for a correction.
However, as long as the S&P 500 Index remains above the orange support line, there is reason to believe that the bulls remain in control.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
SPX500 – Fed Speeches to Drive Next BreakoutSPX500 – Technical Outlook
Markets remain focused on Fed policy signals after last week’s rate cut and a wave of upcoming Fedspeak, while shrugging off the Trump administration’s H-1B visa crackdown. With traders pricing in further easing by year-end, comments from Fed officials will drive sentiment and could trigger sharp moves in U.S. indices.
Price Action
SPX500 is currently showing bearish momentum while trading below the pivot zone, reflecting investor caution ahead of key Fed speeches.
Bearish Path:
As long as price remains below the 6,663 pivot, downside pressure persists toward 6,634.
A confirmed 1H close below 6,634 would open the way for deeper losses toward 6,590.
Bullish Path:
A confirmed 1H candle above 6,684 would invalidate the bearish bias and signal fresh bullish momentum, targeting 6,700 → 6,742.
Key Levels
Pivot: 6,663
Resistance: 6,684 – 6,700 – 6,742
Support: 6,634 – 6,619 – 6,590
Major S&P 500 - Bearish Signals On 09/19/25 the S&P 500 (SPX) had two major bearish Signals.
Since March of 2000 all significant SPX peaks occurred with a rising VIX. On 09/19/25 the VIX made its second higher bottom since 08/28/25.
Daily RSI has reached the overbought zone and has a bearish divergence.
A multi – week decline could begin soon.
SPX: rate cut fuels market rallyThe Fed finally made a long awaited move and cut interest rates by 25 basis points, for the first time during this year. Additional cuts are possible during the Q4, however, they will depend on the economic data, not on expectations from markets. Fed Chair Powell stressed that risks are now switched to the jobs market from the inflation, which moved relatively stable during the past period, although still modestly above the Fed's target of 2%.
The US equity markets continue to react positively to new macro developments, with S&P500 reaching another new all time highest level as of the end of the week at 6.665. The market also continues to move within a highly overbought range. Some analysts are beginning to stress that current S&P 500 levels are trading at 22 times forward earnings, noting that a period of consolidation would be a healthy period.
The rise in the S&P500 was helped by a sharp jump in Intel shares, which surged nearly 23% following Nvidia’s $5 billion investment and their plan to collaborate on AI-chips. Other top contributors included Nvidia, which recovered earlier losses despite concerns over Chinese tech regulations. Meanwhile, some S&P 500 stocks lagged: Darden Restaurants fell after disappointing earnings, and CrowdStrike saw gains after broker upgrades.
SPX500 – Bullish Bias Holds Above 6,680SPX500 – OVERVIEW
The price pushed higher last week following the PCE and GDP results, though uncertainty remains over a potential Fed rate cut at the next meeting.
Overall, the short-term trend remains bullish.
Upside Scenario:
Price is expected to test 6,699 and 6,708.
A confirmed break above these levels would open the way toward the next key target at 6,742.
Range Scenario:
If the index fails to hold above 6,700, expect consolidation between 6,700 and 6,672 until a decisive breakout occurs.
Pivot: 6,680
Resistance: 6,699 – 6,708 – 6,742
Support: 6,680 – 6,662 – 6,634
SPX500USD could go up againHi traders,
Last week I said we could see a little more upside and a bigger correction down for (orange) wave 4 for SPX500USD. And this is exactly what happened.
So next week we could see more upside again to make a new ATH.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small pullback down and a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower timeframe to trade longs.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Elliott wavecount and patterns, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
SPX SEP-OCT 2025SPX rejected at the 6600 area after heavy institutional distribution (-352B). Price is consolidating above key support zones at 6500–6450 and 6350–6200. Stronger demand sits at 6100, where the 3.4T daily absorption was previously noted. Below that, unfilled gaps remain at 5800 and 5350.
Upside target: 7000 if supports hold and momentum returns.
Downside target: 5800 gap fill if 6350 breaks.
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