$TMF means Too Much FunIf it wasnt for politics, we would have already had a rate cut. The cut will come and when it comes, it might not be 25 bps. It may be much more because we need to catch up and the economy will be in the gutter. Enjoy the melt up but this thing will go parabolic in the next 2 years.
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TMF in Buy ZoneMy trading plan is very simple.
I buy or sell when at three of these events happen:
* Price tags the top or bottom of parallel channel zones
* Money flow spikes beyond it's Bollinger Bands
* Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at near oversold overbought level
* Price at Fibonacci levels
So...
Here's
Opening (IRA): TMF May 17th 39 Covered Call... for a 38.06 debit.
Comments: Along with TLT, one of the only red things on my ETF board. Doing a starter position here, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effe
Opening (IRA): TMF May 16th 37 Covered Call... for a 36.05 debit.
Comments: Adding at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 36.05/sha
Opening (IRA): TMF March 28th 36 Covered Call... for a 35.08 debit.
Comments: Selling the -75 delta call against shares on weakness to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 35.08
Max Profit: .92
ROC at Max: 2.62%
50% Max: .46
ROC at 50% M
Opening (IRA): TMF March 21st 36 Covered Call... for a 34.85 debit.
Comments: Starter position. Selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 34.85
Max Profit: 1.15
ROC at Max: 3.30%
50% Max: .58
ROC
Opening (IRA): TMF Feb 28th 35 Covered Call... for a 33.98 debit.
Comments: High IVR/IV at 40.7/44.2, which is no surprise, since this is a bullish 3 x leveraged 20 year paper exchange-traded fund. It does have a dividend that pays out quarterly in March, June, September, and December (annualized yield of 4.71%).
Selling the -75 delta c
Taking another LONG ride at 58.61 with TMF (oversold)It worked well last time (+11.9% in 7 trading days) and even better the time after that when I FORGOT to trade it - see my last idea for TMF for how that went. So I went long at 58.61 this morning. I'm not missing this train again.
I don't think rates are going up any time soon and neither does a
TMF Swing Trade and Long-Term HoldConfluence 1:
On the 4H Chart, TMF has been respecting the upper channel. Back on 8/1, TMF broke out of the resistance trendline and then re-tested it on 8/8. That trendline is now acting as support which we recently bounced off of.
Confluence 2:
On 9/24, TMF touched into the fair value gap hig
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Displays a symbol's price movements over previous years to identify recurring trends.
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No, TMF doesn't pay dividends to its holders.