S&P 500 (US500) holds near records high on AI/Fed-cut betsS&P 500 holds near records on AI/Fed-cut bets
Technical analysis
1. US500 has been forming series of higher swings, and the bullish EMAs signal firm upside momentum. Intraday pullbacks are viewed as short-term dips.
2. If US500 breaks above the 6740 resistance, the index could extend to 6770.
3. However, if US500 pulls back and breaks below the 6720 support, a deeper consolidation toward 6700, previously a resistance, may follow.
Fundamental analysis
4. S&P 500 edged up and hovered near record highs, supported by optimism around AI and expectations of additional Fed rate cuts, even as the US government shutdown drags on and delays the release of employment data.
5. Analysts see the market impact of the shutdown as limited compared with the larger risk from a weakening labor market—evident in the mixed labor data (fewer Challenger layoffs but a weaker ADP report), which reinforces that view.
6. With NFP likely to be delayed, investors are focusing on the September ISM services index, which is expected to ease to 51.8 from 52.0.
7. Analysts expect the S&P 500 to remain bullish this week, driven by strong earnings, seasonal trends, and positive technicals. While macro news could cause volatility, the overall trend points upward.
Analysis by: Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
