Imminent End of the U.S. Statistical Blackout!The prolonged shutdown of the U.S. federal government has had an exceptional impact on the release of some of the country’s most important economic statistics. Indicators such as the employment report (NFP), PCE inflation, or the CPI are the backbone of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and heavily influence financial market volatility. Their delay therefore creates a true statistical “black hole.”
Why are these indicators delayed?
Two federal agencies have been affected:
• the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), responsible for NFP and CPI;
• the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which publishes PCE inflation as well as household income and spending data.
During the shutdown, these agencies had to suspend the collection, processing, and validation of data. Unlike a simple administrative pause, this disrupts complex statistical pipelines built on surveys of businesses and households. Some data cannot be “caught up” immediately because they depend on strict deadlines, which explains why certain series may be incomplete, revised late, or even canceled.
The case of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
The October NFP report — normally released in early November — was entirely blocked. Signals from the BLS suggest that this report may be partially or totally compromised, especially the household survey, which is more difficult to reconstruct.
By contrast, the September report, which was also delayed, now has a confirmed publication date: Thursday, November 20, 2025.
For the October report, there is still no official date. The most likely estimates point to a possible release in late November or early December, provided the data quality is deemed acceptable.
The case of PCE inflation
The October PCE inflation figure — scheduled for October 31 — was also halted. The BEA announced it would revise its entire calendar but has not yet provided firm replacement dates.
Economists currently expect a publication around November 26, 2025, potentially in a partially “imputed” form (with statistical estimates filling missing data).
Market consequences
The absence of these key data forces investors and the Fed to navigate blindly. Volatility could remain elevated until the full or partial release of these indicators, which should gradually return to a normal schedule starting in December.
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