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SP:SPX
by TradingView
17
S&P 500 - GRAND MARKET OUTLOOKS&P 500 - GRAND MARKET OUTLOOK BY FIBCOS This analysis integrates multiple layers of market interpretation, combining Elliott Wave Theory across Supercycle , Macro , Micro , and Sub-Micro degrees with Smart Money Concepts (SMC) , price action behavior, and Fibonacci retracements/extensions to project the S&P 500 ’s long-term trajectory. It captures how institutional capital rotates through accumulation and distribution phases, aligned with macroeconomic cycles, policy shifts, and investor sentiment. Each wave is grounded in historical and forward-looking fundamental events—from post-war booms to financial crises to the current AI-driven tech surge. The use of Fibonacci ratios (1.618, 3.618, 5.618) provides mathematical confluence for wave targets, while price structure confirms the ongoing impulsive behavior. Altogether, it creates a cohesive, multi-dimensional forecast expected to culminate in a Supercycle Wave (III) top around Q1 2029 , with an S&P 500 target between 20,000(20K). 🌀 Supercycle Wave (III) — The Final Ascent (1942–2029*) 🌍 SUPERCYCLE STRUCTURE: The Multi-Generational Bull We are inside Supercycle Wave (III) which began in 1942 and is unfolding in 5 Macro Impulse Waves . Each of these macro waves has further Micro and Sub-Micro waves. As of 2025, we're in the final stretch of this grand cycle, specifically: 👉 Sub-Micro Wave ③ of Micro Wave ⑤ of Macro Wave ⑤ of Supercycle Wave (III) Final top expected in Q1 2029 , around the 20,000 (20K) zone 📍 🧭 MACRO WAVE TIMELINE (Supercycle III) 🔹 Macro Wave ① (1942–1968): 🌟 Post-War Industrial Renaissance Fundamentals: WWII victory → economic dominance Baby boom, suburbanization, auto and housing expansion Bretton Woods system established USD supremacy 💵 Smart Money Insight: Institutional capital rotated from war manufacturing into consumer goods, construction, and tech foundations Price Action: Strong impulsive move with clean higher highs/lows Fibonacci Insight: Laid the base for 1.618 extension targets Ends in 1968 with rising inflation and Vietnam drag 🔹 Macro Wave ② (1968–1974): 🌪️ Stagflation Storm Fundamentals: Vietnam War expenditures Gold standard broken (1971 Nixon shock) Oil embargo, inflation > growth Price Action: Deep correction, volatile chop, broad distribution SMC Insight: Institutions exited cyclicals, quietly accumulated future outperformers (tech, defense) Fibonacci: 0.236% retracement of Super Cycle Wave ii 🔹 Macro Wave ③ (1974–2000): 🚀 Tech & Financialization Explosion Fundamentals: Reaganomics & deregulation PC revolution, Internet birth, globalization 🌐 Explosion in derivatives, S&P futures, ETFs SMC: Institutions accumulated during 70s lows, fueled tech IPO boom (Apple, Microsoft) Price Action: Violent rallies with accelerating slope — classic 3rd wave behavior Fibonacci: Extended well beyond 4.618% of Macro ① & ② — true power wave 🔹 Macro Wave ④ (2000–2009): 🌊 Dot-Com + Financial Crisis Correction Fundamentals: Dot-Com bust ➜ $5T in lost value 9/11 shocks & Iraq war GFC: Housing bubble → global banking collapse Price Action: Double top structure (2000 & 2007), multi-leg correction SMC Insight: Smart money cashed out in 2000 and 2007; bought again heavily in March 2009 Structure: WXY complex correction, bottoming with V-shape GFC recovery Fibonacci: 0.236% retracement of Macro ② 🔶 MACRO WAVE ⑤ (2009–2029): 🔥 The Final Ascent – AI, Liquidity & Euphoria This is the final macro wave of Supercycle (III), and it subdivides into 5 Micro Impulse Waves. We are now in Micro Wave ⑤ , which itself contains Sub-Micro Waves 1–5. 🔷 Micro Wave ① (2009–Apr 2010): 🪙 The Bounce from Oblivion Fundamentals: Fed QE1 💉, bailouts (TARP), 0% rates Fear of deflation flipped to hunt for yield Price Action: Clean V-bottom, shallow pullbacks SMC: Institutions were loading REITs, tech, and banks post-GFC carnage 🔷 Micro Wave ② (Apr 2010–Jun 2010): 🩻 Flash Crash Flush Fundamentals: Euro debt scare, Greece bailout, volatility spike Price Action: Sharp correction, liquidity vacuum Fibonacci: Textbook 0.236% retracement SMC: Stop hunt phase — liquidity grab before next leg 🔷 Micro Wave ③ (Jun 2010–2018): 🚀 Passive Investing Boom Fundamentals: QE2, QE3 → massive central bank asset inflation Apple, Amazon, Google explode in earnings and valuation ETF revolution = automated capital flows Price Action: Relentless trend with low volatility Fibonacci: 2.618+ extension of Wave ① SMC: Institutions began multi-year hold strategies (FANGM), volatility sellers emerged 🔷 Micro Wave ④ (2018–2020): ⚠️ Volatility & COVID Shock Fundamentals: Rate hikes (2018), trade war (US-China) COVID black swan — global shutdown, crude oil collapse (went negative!) Price Action: Massive drop with record velocity (VIX > 80) SMC: Panic selling, smart money accumulation March 2020 🔵 MICRO WAVE ⑤ (2020–2029): 📈 The Final Climb Begins This is where we are now. This Micro Wave ⑤ is subdividing into: 🟢 Sub-Micro Wave ① (Mar 2020 – Nov 2021): 💹 Stimulus Mania Fundamentals: Unlimited QE, COVID relief checks Crypto/NFT mania, meme stocks (GME/AMC) Retail explosion via Robinhood & Reddit Price Action: Parabolic rally, overbought signals SMC: Institutions faded retail euphoria mid-2021 🟡 Sub-Micro Wave ② (Nov 2021 – Oct 2022): 🔻 Inflation Reckoning Fundamentals: CPI > 9%, Fed hikes aggressively Yield curve inversion, tech meltdown Price Action: 0.236% retracement SMC: Smart money rotated into energy, defense, and value stocks during panic Sentiment : Retail fled, fear extreme — perfect accumulation zone 🔴 Sub-Micro Wave ③ (Oct 2022 – Est. 2027): ⚡ AI Supercycle Ignites CURRENT WAVE IN PROGRESS Fundamentals: AI revolution (ChatGPT, LLMs, Robotics, Automation) Cloud, semiconductors, defense, biotech surge Fiscal policy dominance, wars & tech race 🧠 Price Action: Clean impulse structure Shallow pullbacks, breakout-retest continuation SMC: Institutions aggressively long AI/Defense (Nvidia, Palantir, defense contractors) Liquidity injections in dips, stealth breakouts Fibonacci Target: 3.618 extension ~11,200 Expected to peak in 2026 🟠 Sub-Micro Wave ④ (Est. 2027-2028): 🧯 Last Shakeout Before the Climax Expect: Profit-taking, geopolitical panic, credit stress Retest of broken trendline or previous resistance zone Fibonacci : Retrace 0.236–0.382 of Wave ③ SMC: Final accumulation before blow-off top 🔵 Sub-Micro Wave ⑤ (Est. 2028–Q1 2029): 🚨 Blow-Off Top: 20,000 Target Fundamentals: Peak optimism: “AI replaces everything”, euphoria Retail mania, influencer ETFs Fed/central banks possibly easing again to avoid slowdown Price Action: Parabolic, low pullbacks, extreme momentum, RSI divergence, volume climax SMC: Massive institutional distribution — quiet selling into strength Target: ~20,000 (5.618 of Wave ①), final top of Supercycle (III) 🛑 What Comes After? SUPERCYCLE WAVE (IV): 🔻 Decade-Long Reset (2029–2040?) Major correction, potentially multi-decade sideways or secular bear Catalyst? AI bust, geopolitical war, credit collapse "Stay focused on structure, not emotions." - FIBCOS 📘 Disclaimer: This is a structural, educational market outlook. Not financial advice. Please do your own due diligence and risk management. #FIBCOS #ElliottWave #SmartMoneyConcept #MarketAnalysis #Gold #XAUUSD #ElliottWave #WaveTheory #SuperCycle #MacroTrend #SmartMoney #Fibonacci #PriceAction #Commodities #TechnicalAnalysis #LongTermOutlook
SP:SPXLong
by fibcos
1
S&P 500: TACO Trump or Something More Serious?After a summer of plain sailing for the S&P 500, Friday’s sell-off was the first market wobble we’ve witnessed in some time. Let’s take a look at what this means moving forward… Tariff Turbulence Returns Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats against China sent shockwaves through markets on Friday, triggering the S&P 500’s biggest one-day drop since April. His comments, accusing Beijing of becoming “very hostile” and vowing “massive” tariffs, reignited fears of a full-blown trade war. Investors rushed into safe havens, pushing Treasury yields lower and sending gold back toward record highs. The sell-off saw more than four in five stocks in the index finish in the red, bringing an abrupt pause to the market’s recent record-breaking run. But as Wall Street traders know, Trump’s tariff threats don’t always end the way they start. The “Trump Always Chickens Out” or TACO trade has become a familiar playbook for traders who buy the dip after a tariff announcement, then sell the rebound when the president softens his tone. Sure enough, over the weekend Trump hinted at reconciliation, praising President Xi and calling for cooperation. That shift helped US futures rebound early Monday, as investors once again bet that the sell-off might be more bark than bite. The question now is whether this episode follows the usual TACO script or signals something deeper brewing beneath the surface. Bearish Engulfing Shock Sets the Parameters Friday’s daily candle tells the story best. The huge bearish engulfing candle didn’t just erase the prior week’s gains, it wrapped around several days of price action and signalled a sharp shift in sentiment. Its sheer size is significant because range expansion after a calm period often marks a turning point in market psychology. The candle’s lower wick, finding support near the 50-day moving average, shows that buyers did emerge at key trend support, but how price behaves within this range will now define the path forward. US500 Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results The hourly chart shows how that panic played out and how quickly traders have tried to repair the damage. The market found support before gapping higher at Monday’s open, showing a tentative attempt to stabilise. This kind of response often reveals whether a sell-off was a genuine trend reversal or a momentary flush of emotion. If price can keep grinding higher from here and close back above the midpoint of Friday’s engulfing candle, it would confirm that the uptrend remains intact and that buyers still have control. However, if the S&P 500 stalls or consolidates in the lower half of that candle’s range, it would be a clear warning that the market’s tone has changed. Sideways price action here would imply that traders are waiting for confirmation rather than chasing rebounds, and that shift in behaviour can often lead to a second leg lower. The size of Friday’s engulfing candle now marks a battleground between short-term buyers and cautious longer-term investors. Whether we see a swift recovery or a slow grind will reveal if this was just another TACO moment or the start of something more meaningful. US500 Hourly Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 85.24% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CAPITALCOM:US500
by Capitalcom
The Pullback Playbook: Buy the Dip or Bail Out?Markets don’t go up in straight lines. Even the strongest trends pause, retrace, and test your conviction. These pauses are called pullbacks and they can either be healthy breathers before the next leg higher or the first cracks in a trend about to fall apart. The challenge for traders is knowing the difference. 📉 What Exactly Is a Pullback? Think of a pullback as a temporary trend halt, not necessarily a crash. The price moves against the prevailing trend for a short period, testing support levels or shaking out weak hands before deciding where to go next. They’re common, normal, and — if managed right — they’re opportunities rather than threats. But here’s where it gets tricky: not all pullbacks are trend halts. Some are the start of a flat-out reversal. And unless you’re comfortable holding through a potential nosedive, you need skills and tools to tell which is which. 🧐 Pullbacks vs. Trend Reversals So how do know if you’re looking at a pullback or a trend reversal? The main differentiating factor is the length of the move. The healthy pullback looks orderly — modest in size, controlled in volume, and often retracing to familiar moving averages or support zones. A healthy pullback might retrace 3-5% in a bull run, testing the 20- or 50-day moving average before bouncing higher. A trend reversal barrels through multiple support levels in days, erasing weeks of gains. It’s often sharper, louder, and driven by news or panic. Signs of a healthy pullback include: • Price holding above key moving averages (20, 50-day. Some stretch to the 100-day but these tend to be rare — it’s more likely a trend reversal by then). • Volume shrinking on the way down, then swelling on the rebound. • Oscillators like RSI cooling off from overbought territory without plunging into oversold. Trend reversals look more like: • Breaks of multiple support levels in one go. • Heavy, accelerating sell volume. • Headlines driving panic: tariffs, central bank surprises, data releases from the Economic calendar , crypto exchange blowups, or noise coming from the Earnings calendar . 📊 Technical Tools to Judge the Dip Charts can’t predict the future, but they can help you gauge probabilities. Pullbacks often line up with Fibonacci retracements, moving averages, or horizontal support and resistance levels. • Moving Averages : If price pulls back to the 50-day and holds, that’s often a green light for trend continuation. If it slices straight through the 100-day? Not so healthy. • Trendlines : Respecting the line = confidence. Breaking it = trouble. • Volume : Low-volume pullbacks suggest sellers aren’t that committed. High-volume dumps are red flags. None of these are crystal balls. But together, they give you a framework to avoid buying every dip. 🏄‍♂️ The Psychology of Buying the Dip Why do traders love dips? Because everyone wants a discount. A pullback offers a chance to jump on a trend at a better price, and social media culture has turned “buy the dip” into a meme strategy. But memes don’t pay the bills when a dip turns into a crater. The psychology works both ways: • Optimists see dips as golden tickets. • Pessimists see them as traps. • Realists know both can be true, depending on the setup. Being aware of your own bias — whether you lean toward buying too early or panicking too soon — is half the battle. 🔄 Asymmetric Risk and the Smart Bet Here’s where it gets interesting. You don’t need to be right all the time if your risk-reward ratio is skewed in your favor. A tight stop and a wide target can mean one win cancels out several small losses. Imagine risking 1% to potentially make 10%. Even if you’re wrong most of the time, the math can work. Pullbacks are prime territory for asymmetric setups: smart, thought-out entries, clear invalidation points (below support, trendline breaks), and attractive upside if the trend resumes. This doesn’t mean chasing every dip. A pullback can wipe your position clean if you’ve placed your stop loss a little too close, a little too early. ⏳ Timing Matters The biggest mistake with pullbacks is trying to catch the exact bottom. Traders love to brag about nailing the wick, but most who try end up paying for it. Smarter is to wait for confirmation — a bounce, a reversal candle, a break back above a short-term moving average. Yes, you may miss the lowest price. But you’ll also miss buying into a freefall. 🌍 Pullbacks in Context Context is everything. A dip in a raging bull market is not the same as a dip in a shaky sideways market. Macro matters too. If the Fed is cutting rates , risk assets might rebound fast. If tariffs, wars, or inflation are spiking, a pullback could turn into something bigger and deeper. That’s why traders zoom out before diving in. Daily charts tell one story; weekly charts often tell the bigger tale. 🚀 Buy or Bail? So, do you buy the dip or bail out? The honest answer is: it depends. A well-structured pullback in a strong uptrend with unchanged fundamentals is an opportunity. A violent, volume-heavy selloff in a fragile market with cracked fundamentals is a warning. The pullback dilemma isn’t just about charts but also about psychology. Can you hold your nerve when the market wobbles, or will you cut and run? Both choices can be right in the right context. 🎯 Final Takeaway Pullbacks are part of every trend’s DNA. They test conviction, patience, and risk management. The key isn’t to predict every wiggle but to recognize whether price action is just cooling off or signaling something bigger. Stay disciplined, respect your stops, and let the chart, not the noise, tell you when it’s time to stay in or step aside. Off to you : Buy the dip? Or bail out? How do you respond to expected and unexpected market pauses? Let us know your coping mechanism in the comments!
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
14
S&P 500 Watching 6,700 Support as Seasonal Tailwinds Strengthen.Hey Traders, In today’s session, we’re keeping a close eye on US500 for a potential buying opportunity around the 6,700 zone. The S&P 500 remains firmly in an uptrend, with price currently in a healthy correction phase approaching a key support and trend confluence near 6,700. Beyond the technical setup, seasonality adds a bullish layer — over the past 15 years, the S&P 500 has advanced 14 times in October to early November, averaging significant gain during this window. If history rhymes, the current pullback could offer a compelling buy-the-dip opportunity into one of the market’s strongest seasonal periods. Trade safe, Joe.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by JoeChampion
7
SPX500 Slips Below Pivot as Sellers Regain ControlSPX500 – Overview | Bearish Bias Below 6,609 The index reversed lower from resistance around 6,672 and has now stabilized below the pivot line at 6,609, signaling a continuation of bearish momentum. As long as price trades below 6,609, the trend remains bearish, targeting 6,577 → 6,550, with further downside potential toward 6,507. A 1H close above 6,609 would negate the bearish setup and shift momentum bullish toward 6,635 → 6,672 → 6,700. Pivot: 6,609 Support: 6,577 – 6,550 – 6,507 Resistance: 6,635 – 6,672 – 6,700
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
Crash ... 10 % and up 6760 is very important Pivot that price can`t pass for many reasons : its 720 GANN angle since the uptrend begins in apr 2025 @ 4840 and it comes with upper trend that contain the price and face it down evey time it touch Now . its matter of time before the movie start This is how the big whales punish you when you trade in the markets Gold at a record high The dollar is also rising Bonds are rising Political tensions are increasing Inflation is rising Unemployment is increasing Government shutdown High tariffs Yet the market hits a new record every other day by day Patience is a virtue Wait for a 10-15% crash before the end of the year After they wipe out the sellers, as they always do have a sit , have a kit kat
SP:SPXShort
by MaxSas
3
SPX500 | HULL MA & Fibo Confluence Setting Up the Move!🎯 SPX500: The "Polite Thief" Strategy - Stealing Profits Like a Gentleman 🎩💰 📊 Market Overview Asset: SPX500 (S&P 500 Index CFD) Trade Type: Swing/Day Trade Opportunity Bias: Bullish 🐂 Strategy Style: Multi-Layer Entry (The "Thief Method") 🔍 Technical Setup The Plan: We're eyeing a bullish confirmation with a clean retest/pullback at the 38.2% Fibonacci level, aligned beautifully with our HULL Moving Average. This confluence zone is screaming "buy the dip" louder than your portfolio manager at a market crash! 📈 🎯 Entry Strategy Options: Option 1: The "Polite Thief" Multi-Layer Approach Instead of going all-in like it's a Vegas buffet, we're using calculated limit orders: 📍 Layer 1: 6620 📍 Layer 2: 6640 📍 Layer 3: 6660 📍 Layer 4: 6680 Feel free to add more layers based on your account size and risk appetite! Option 2: Market Execution Jump in at any current price level if the setup confirms during live hours. 🛡️ Risk Management Stop Loss: 6580 ⚠️ Disclaimer: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG's), this is MY stop loss based on MY analysis. You're the captain of your own ship! 🚢 Set your risk parameters according to YOUR comfort level and account size. Risk management is YOUR responsibility. 💎 Profit Target Target Zone: 6860 This level represents our "Electric Shock Wall" 🔌⚡ - a confluence of: Strong historical resistance Overbought territory potential Bull trap zone (where late entries get caught) Exit Strategy Note: I'm not your financial advisor! 💼 When you see green, secure those gains at YOUR discretion. The market doesn't care about our targets - take profit when YOU feel comfortable! 🌐 Related Pairs to Watch Keep your eyes on these correlated instruments: 📈 AMEX:SPY (S&P 500 ETF) - Moves in lockstep with SPX500; watch for volume confirmation 📈 NASDAQ:QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF) - Tech-heavy index; bullish momentum here supports SPX strength 📈 AMEX:DIA (Dow Jones ETF) - Broader market sentiment indicator 📈 TVC:VIX (Volatility Index) - Inverse correlation; falling VIX = bullish for equities 💵 TVC:DXY (US Dollar Index) - Typically inverse to equities; weakening dollar supports stocks Key Correlation: When tech leads (QQQ pumping), SPX usually follows. Watch for VIX to stay subdued below 15 for sustained bullish momentum. 📝 Key Technical Points ✅ 38.2% Fibonacci retracement acting as dynamic support ✅ HULL Moving Average confluence strengthens the setup ✅ Multi-layer entry reduces average cost and timing risk ✅ Clear risk/reward structure with defined zones ✅ Resistance zone identified for disciplined exits ⚡ The "Thief Strategy" Philosophy We're not robbing the market - we're borrowing profits with permission! 😉 The layered entry approach allows us to build positions like a professional, not gamble like a reckless amateur. Scale in, scale out, and live to trade another day! ✨ If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community! ⚠️ Final Disclaimer IMPORTANT: This "Thief Style" trading strategy is for educational and entertainment purposes only! 🎪 This is NOT financial advice. I'm sharing my personal analysis and trade ideas - what you do with your money is 100% YOUR decision. Trade at your own risk, manage your own capital, and never risk more than you can afford to lose. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always do your own research! 🔍 #SPX500 #SP500 #TradingIdeas #SwingTrading #DayTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #FibonacciRetracement #SupportAndResistance #RiskManagement #TradingStrategy #StockMarket #IndexTrading #ThiefStrategy #LayeredEntry #PriceAction #MarketAnalysis #TradingCommunity #ChartAnalysis
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by The-Thief
SP500: Breaks Out Of Channel, Steps Into Wave Four I hope you had a nice weekend despite that nasty turn lower on stocks we saw on Friday. As you know, the move came after Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on China, following China’s own restrictions and tighter export controls on rare earth metals, which are crucial for the tech sector. We’ve seen this story before back in April, and if tariffs come back into focus again, traders will likely react with fear — so it’s not a surprise we saw such a strong drop in stocks on Friday. Normally, markets are most sensitive when this kind of news first hits, and then they tend to stabilize afterward. What’s interesting, though, is that despite the strong sell-off in stocks, the dollar index didn’t show the kind of sharp upside reaction you’d usually expect. So I’m wondering if stocks can find some support, but seems like this can be only wave B rally, since we are in the middle of wave four retracement. Keep in mind there is an open gap lower on futures. Big supports is at 6400 and 6200. Grega
VANTAGE:SP500
by ew-forecast
SPX – Correction Scenarios#SPX – Correction Scenarios The S&P 500 is entering a corrective phase after completing a full 5-wave impulse. Current price: 6,654 Main focus: potential retracement between 6,350–6,150 pts Technical Context • The index reached the 2.618 Fibonacci extension (≈6,520) — typical for the final wave 5. • RSI divergence + trendline break confirm exhaustion. • Structure now shifts into ABC correction, possibly extending into wave (4) or a larger degree A-wave. Correction Scenarios 1️⃣ Shallow pullback (yellow path) • Target: 6,600–6,530 (0.236 Fib) • Structure: quick ABC with limited downside — “wave 4 inside 5.” • Bias: short-term profit-taking only. • Probability: High, if Fed remains neutral and earnings stay solid. 2️⃣ Standard correction (purple path) • Target: 6,350 (0.382 Fib / Pivot) • Structure: classic A-B-C retracement after trend extension. • Represents healthy market cooling without trend reversal. • Probability: Base case / Most likely. 3️⃣ Deeper correction (white path) • Target: 6,150 (0.5 Fib / EMA 200 zone) • Structure: larger A-B-C completing wave (4). • Often precedes a strong new impulse (wave 5 of higher degree). • Probability: Moderate, triggered by weaker Q3 data or tighter Fed tone. 4️⃣ Extended correction (cyan path) • Target: 6,030–5,800 (0.618–0.786 Fib) • Structure: deeper W-X-Y or expanded flat, washing out late longs. • Long-term accumulation zone. • Probability: Low, but key for long-term investors. 📌 Summary • SPX likely transitions into a corrective ABC structure. • Primary support area: 6,350–6,150. • Only a break below 6,000 would confirm a broader trend reversal. • Until then, overall bias stays medium-term bullish — correction before continuation.
SP:SPX
by NewOneCrypto
US500 Breaks Out and Aims HigherUS500 Breaks Out and Aims Higher Since the start of October, the US500 has been moving inside a large bullish pattern, showing signs of accumulation. Now, it looks ready to rise again, supported by expectations that the FOMC will continue with its rate cut plans in the upcoming meetings. The FOMC minutes released yesterday also confirmed support for a 25 bps rate cut, adding strength to market optimism. Recently, the US500 broke out of the bullish pattern, suggesting more upside potential ahead. For now, the next targets are around 6780 and 6800. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by KlejdiCuni
5
October 13 - October 17 2025I decided to go through and consolidate my charts this week to make for easier decision making. Friday’s sell off was a sign of weakness in a market that was already showing strain. While the drop on resumed trade war threats was swift, the rest of the market had a muted response. Heading into this week, we should see another big move and I will try to be open to trading either side depending on how this develops. 1. Macro Gold is still in its uptrend and that is unlikely to change anytime soon. I don’t have it charted here, but Gold’s volatility index CBOE:GVZ spiked during Friday’s session, however buyers seemed to be absorbing the volatility since it still closed up over 1%. Gold has already made a new ATH today and I do not expect to see the trend change this week. The dollar TVC:DXY seems to be near the top of its deviation from the flat EMA. I think we will see the dollar move lower which could boost Gold, Stocks, or both. Next, we saw TVC:US03MY remain relatively flat during Friday’s sell off while TVC:US10Y moved sharply lower during the session, making the TVC:US10Y -US03MY spread very tight once again. Since real yields are still edging up and the 3M bond stayed flat during the panic, that leads me to believe the bond market volatility was contained and may not be indicative of a true risk-off reaction. One reason why US Treasuries will continue to catch a bid is that as forward inflation expectations continue to slide (bottom left chart), the real return is still attractive compared to bonds from other major countries. We’ll see if the renewed trade sparring will change the forward inflation exceptions trend since the data from TIPS is delayed, however for now I’ll continue to base my perception on what I’m currently seeing on the chart. Lastly, Oil is continuing to see an average decline. Hopefully middle eastern peace efforts are successful, which could keep the price subdued. On the bottom chart I have combined the average of MCX:COPPER1! and Corn CBOT:ZC1! into a single line compared to TVC:DXY , which aims to show real demand (and/or inflation) pressure against the Dollar’s relative strength. Here we can see commodities took a hit on Friday but the trend is still very strong to the upside. Since forward inflation expectations are down and the dollar is flat, this may be pointing to the presence of real demand, which should be bullish for equities. 2. Risk Even when looking at the past six months on a line chart, the pullback, Friday’s drop was significant. As I mentioned last week, there are important risk-health items to watch for here. I’m now just charting the High Yield OAS - Investment Grade OAS spread, which was already starting to move up before Friday’s sell off. This data is only reported once per day for the previous session, so the impact on corporate bond yields is not yet known. This will be very important to pay attention to, as it could signal true aversion to risk. Next, the $ES1!/GOLD spread is declining and should continue until Gold enters a re-accumulation phase. Anyone’s guess when that will be so for now I think it’s safe to assume that Stocks will continue to underperform Gold, and if Friday’s drop was any indication of which side is in control, it serves as confirmation that stocks are sensitive to bad news. Buyers seem to be the ones getting absorbed. The third chart on the top shows that although CME_MINI:NQ1! has been outperforming CBOT_MINI:YM1! since the market bottomed, the momentum seems to be stalling out. I’ll be looking at the sectors to find any further signs of sustained rotation. 3. Sector Analysis My notes are best explained in the screenshot but my comment is that most of the decline on Friday came from AMEX:XLK (Tech sector) selling off. Other sectors performed better against SPX, with AMEX:XLP (Consumer Staples) seemingly breaking out of a decline, however as you can see from the chart on the right, it has still been the worst performer against the other indices over the past three months. One session is not enough to change the trend, however it will be important to watch for continued rotation out of tech and into other sectors. This could cause CME_MINI:NQ1! to decline against CBOT_MINI:YM1! as I suggested earlier, and would signal the market is positioning for a more sustained downturn - likely caused by disappointing growth. 4. Bias This is the chart I have tried to condense the most. I have switched to just using Line Break as my main chart for ES, which I found performed better than Renko when combined with my other indicators. On the lefthand side, I am using Session CVD but got rid of my other indicators and made a CVD Momentum indicator, which tracks the momentum of CVD rising or falling over an anchor period (1 week). I’m still using a range chart calculation for this chart, currently set to 20R. On the right, I am using what I’ll call my Volatility Dashboard, however it does not start producing a useful signal until premarket. Based on Volatility, it can be said with certainty that dealers went long on puts right before the sell-off began. From a technical standpoint, the price was in a rising wedge and dumped after it made a higher high that did not reach the upper trend line. Rising channels are generally bullish, however the extent of Friday’s free fall could mean that even if the price quickly recovers, it may be forming a top similar to what we saw last December. This is why risk indicators like corporate bond spreads, sector performance, and changes to the macro structure will be important to monitor over the coming days. — Conclusion For this week, all I can say with certainty is that I think there will be some good opportunities. Here is what I believe can be safely assessed from this analysis: 1. Stocks remain under pressure, however “smart money” will require more time to rotate out of tech, leading to repeated retests of the top of the range. 2. Tailwinds for stocks are potential real demand in agriculture and industrial material that is not impacting the market’s forward inflation expectation. 3. “Smart Money” will sell volatility (puts) into pullbacks if the price is set to be driven higher, or will do the opposite, buying volatility (puts) and selling calls on low volume rips This is why I will be looking for more confirmation before taking a side, as the market’s goal now is to clear out liquidity. When it comes to the larger trend, I tend to think that stocks do not seem to be showing strength over the larger macro structure, however that does not necessarily dictate that the index will come down another 8%. Instead, I think at the very least we will stay in a flat range for the time being. I do not think the market is ready to go on a bull run, nor do I think the environment is showing a risk-off bias that is strong enough to warrant stocks going straight down. If we meet resistance near the top of the range, I’ll look at volatility positioning and CVD for the signal to go short. Conversely, if we make a higher low I will go long on calls to the top of the range. Good luck to all and thanks for reading!
SP:SPX
by ap769
Bulls fight back but bearish signals lingerRecent mixed price and momentum signals on the S&P 500 suggest traders should keep an open mind on whether to play the index from the long or short side in the near term. For the bulls, the strong bounce from a zone comprising the 50-day moving average and May 23 uptrend over the past two sessions suggests the buy-the-dip trade remains alive despite Friday’s sharp pullback, pointing to the potential for an eventual retest of the record high at 6766. However, bearish divergence with RSI (14) raises questions about the sustainability of the move, especially with MACD having already crossed the signal line from above before proceeding to trend lower. Bullish momentum is weakening, not building, likely keeping bears interested for the moment. For those looking to play the index from the long side, there are few setups worth considering. If we were to see a break above 6700 resistance, longs could be established above the level with a stop below, targeting the record high of 6766 initially. Alternatively, another pullback and bounce from the 50DMA/May uptrend support zone would provide a decent entry level, allowing for longs to be set with a stop below for risk management purposes. Potential targets include Tuesday’s high, 6700 or 6766. For the bears, a failure to clear 6700 resistance would create a short setup, allowing for trades to be established beneath the level with a stop above for protection. The 50DMA/May uptrend support zone screens as a logical initial target, with 6500 and 6360 other options after that. Good luck! DS
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by FOREXcom
S&P 500 The Bull Run Is Over. Watch the Yellow Level.The S&P 500 rally looks exhausted. Over the past week, momentum has clearly faded, lower highs, weaker daily closes, and stronger selling pressure on each bounce. Technically, the market shows early signs of a shift from bullish to corrective or bearish. The Yellow Level acts as a divider between a mildly bullish market and the start of a medium-term bearish phase. Above the Yellow Level: price may hold short-term strength or consolidation. Below the Yellow Level: structure breaks down and downside potential expands. A daily close below the Yellow Level would confirm the beginning of a broader bearish move. In my view i suggest all the Trader/Investor which they are reading this to stay AT LEAST 80/90% IN CASH. something is about to happen... stay safe!
FPMARKETS:US500Short
by V-TOL
SPX | Daily Analysis #2Hello and welcome back to DP, **Review and News** Yesterday, at the start of the week, the SPX opened with a significant upside gap, largely driven by a tweet from former President Trump on Friday. His statement—"Don’t worry about China and Xi, they don’t want a recession for their economy, and neither do we"—helped restore investor confidence, pushing them back into the market, particularly into this index. However, shortly after, Trump reiterated that tariffs would still be implemented on November 1st, which is expected to have a considerable impact. This morning, President Xi reaffirmed his stance, saying, "China will fight to the end, but the doors for negotiation are always open." As seen on the chart, the price has moved within a range between $6,681 and $6,584. **4-Hour Price Action** As indicated by the chart, the price range between $6,681 and $6,584 seems to be holding steady for now. One scenario suggests the market is in a consolidation phase. The shape of this consolidation will depend on the future performance of the market. It could either form a diagonal pattern or remain within a box range, as investors battle against short-sellers. Using Fibonacci retracement, it appears the price may extend to the 0.236 line at $6,706. If this Fibonacci level holds, the market could face a downturn, potentially targeting the next support level indicated by the red box below the chart. **Trend Analysis** As shown, the trend illustrates a clear relationship with price movement. The price opened above the trend line, then expanded below the next trend level, showing respect for it. This movement suggests that downward pressure remains, with the market's direction depending on the break of the current trend line. Personally , I believe the market may head south, but it won’t be a straightforward move. The decline could be unpredictable and happen quickly, or it may unfold in more gradual, choppy moves. One thing to be certain of is that retail traders are betting against the market, mainly due to the gap being filled. However, caution is advised when trading this index. It’s important to wait for confirmation before making any decisions.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by DibaPrism
1
US 500 Index – Limited Correction Or Sentiment Reversal?With all the talk in the financial press last week of a potential AI bubble, soaring volatility in the precious metals market, and an on-going US government shutdown, perhaps it was understandable that traders were a little on edge going into Friday. So, when President Trump’s new threats of 100% tariffs on China were posted on social media late in the afternoon the reaction was a big downside correction, which saw the US 500 drop around 3.6% from its all-time highs of 6769 seen just a day earlier to a low of 6508. Since then, comments from President Trump and Vice President Vance over the weekend regarding China have seemed to be more conciliatory in tone, signalling an openness to get back to the negotiating table and hammer out a deal in some form. This has seen all markets breath a small sigh of relief and led the US 500 to open higher, currently trading up 2.2% around 6650 (0800 BST). However, whether this positivity continues may depend on multiple factors, including the technical outlook (more on this below). While trader sensitivity to the next round of comments from the US and Chinese administrations regarding the on-going trade tensions could remain high, they may also be keen to receive the latest Q3 earnings from the major US banks, with JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup reporting on Tuesday (before the open), then Bank of America and Morgan Stanley reporting on Wednesday (before the open). While the focus may be on assessing actual performance against expectations, it could also be important to hear the outlook for future revenue, the direction of US economic growth and the size of bad debt provisions. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also speaks on Tuesday at 1720 BST and with the US government shutdown delaying the release of the most recent inflation updates (CPI/PPI) which were due this week until later in October, any comments he makes regarding the inflation outlook or the potential for an October Fed rate cut could take on extra significance. Technical Update: Limited Correction or Sentiment Reversal? Headline-driven price sell-offs like the one experienced on Friday (Oct 10th) are unpredictable, underscoring the importance of disciplined risk management. If you're long of an asset during such volatility, having well-placed stop-losses is crucial to limit downside exposure, especially when liquidity starts to reduce, as it likely did ahead of today’s US holiday. These events serve as a reminder that protecting your trading capital is just as important as delivering profitable outcomes. After such a sharp sell-off, the question is whether it marks a brief, exaggerated correction within a broader uptrend or signals a deeper negative sentiment shift that could lead to further price weakness. The answer may well depend on how the price of the US 500 reacts in the upcoming sessions. Whether support levels hold, momentum stabilises, and buyers return or whether the price decline deepens and the next support levels give way. The jury may still be out on this, but as the chart above shows, judging the potential key support and resistance levels could help gauge the next directional risks. A closing break of either side may offer signals to the next phase of price activity. If the Sell-Off Reflects a Negative Sentiment Shift: Friday’s sharp decline may have already breached some initial support levels, raising the risk of a more extended phase of price weakness. The daily Bollinger mid-average (currently 6668) is typically viewed by traders as a support level in an uptrend and this level was broken on a closing basis within Friday’s decline. Despite this morning’s rally, 6668 could now act as a resistance, and if it remains intact, could keep upside activity in check for now. While 6668 resistance holds on a closing basis, this morning’s recovery may be viewed by some as a reactionary bounce following Friday’s sharp decline, leaving possibilities of renewed selling pressure later in the week. If this proves to be the case, closing breaks below potential support at 6550, a level which is equal to half the rebound from Friday’s low, might lead to renewed downside pressure. This may open tests of 6490, the 50% retracement of the August 1st to October 9th rally, with a closing break below this level, suggesting scope for moves toward 6224 which is the 61.8% retracement. If the Sell-Off Proves to be a Limited Correction: While Friday’s decline was sharper and larger than any since the June 2025 lows, traders may now be watching whether current price strength can close back above the 6668 Bollinger mid-average. While not a guarantee of renewed price strength, past declines since June 23rd 2025, have seen US 500 prices recover to close back above this line, leading to resumed attempts at upside strength. A closing break back above 6668 may once again open attempts to push to higher levels. If confirmed, a break above resistance at 6668 may lead to further upside back toward 6769, which is the October 9th all-time high. Should this level give way, further strength may extend toward 6866, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci extension of last week’s sharp decline. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone