Updated analysis on S&PAs per our previous analysis, we mentioned that the price is at a very important resistance level, and if it can break it, it could head toward a new ATH. The price has now managed to break the resistance but is still heavily contested. I believe there’s a higher probability that it will reach a new high in the next few days rather than get rejected and fall back.
SPXM trade ideas
S&P 500 (SPX) – Long-Term Channel & Target ZoneS&P 500 (SPX) – Long-Term Channel & Target Zone
🔹 Technical Overview
The S&P 500 continues to trade within a well-defined ascending channel since the 2020 lows.
The index recently recovered strongly from the 2022 correction and is now approaching the upper half of the channel.
Measured move from the last significant swing suggests potential upside continuation into a higher target zone.
🔹 Key Levels
Support zone: 5,950 – 6,200 (lower channel area).
Major resistance / target zone: 7,729 – 8,837 USD.
Channel resistance: aligns with the upper boundary of the long-term trend channel.
🔹 Interpretation
As long as the index remains inside the ascending channel, the broader trend is bullish.
A confirmed breakout above 7,729 would open the door to test the extended target near 8,837.
Losing the channel support (below 5,900) would signal a deeper correction and invalidate the near-term bullish structure.
🔹 Conclusion
The S&P 500 remains in a structural uptrend, respecting its long-term channel.
The next major upside target zone sits between 7,729 and 8,837 USD, provided the index holds above the 6,000 area.
📝 Quick Key Points
📊 Trading inside a long-term ascending channel.
📍 Support: 5,950–6,200 USD.
📍 Resistance / target zone: 7,729–8,837 USD.
⚠️ Breakdown below 5,900 would negate the bullish outlook.
US500 Outlook and Key LevelsThe US500 index currently exhibits a balanced market sentiment with a subtle bullish inclination, navigating near critical support levels amid prevailing uncertainties. Market participants are closely monitoring key technical thresholds while awaiting significant economic indications that could trigger a decisive directional move. In this environment, comprehensive analysis comprising both fundamental and technical perspectives is essential for understanding potential market trajectories.
Fundamental Analysis:
This week’s trajectory is predominantly influenced by macroeconomic and corporate fundamentals. The upcoming release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, is scheduled for Friday. This report is expected to be a pivotal catalyst, shaping investor expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy stance.
Additionally, major corporate earnings from technology giants such as Nvidia and Salesforce are on the horizon. These reports hold the potential to generate heightened sectoral volatility and influence broader market sentiment. The tone of comments from Federal Reserve officials, particularly Richmond Fed President Barkin, alongside ongoing discussions about the timing and magnitude of potential rate cuts, further add to the market’s uncertain macroeconomic backdrop. Political developments, including debates over the Fed’s independence and potential geopolitical shocks, also contribute to the overall risk landscape.
Technical Analysis:
From a technical standpoint, the US500’s volatility appears confined within well defined levels, highlighting a range bound market outlook. The key technical levels to watch include:
Support at 6,430: serving as an intraday technical floor, where sustained breaches could signal further downside.
Resistance at 6,530: the pivotal level that, if surpassed, could open the door to bullish extensions and trend acceleration.
Weekly support at 6,340 and resistance at 6,600, defining broader stability and potential extension boundaries.
Key levels are tightly clustered, and the upcoming week’s movement will likely hinge on market reactions to economic data releases, earnings surprises, or central bank signals. A decisive move beyond 6,530 could establish a bullish trend, while a breakdown below 6,430 might reinforce bearish momentum.
Traders should remain vigilant for rapid reactions to top tier event risks and be prepared for potential shifts in market sentiment. The coming days are critical for identifying the next directional bias of the US500, with key levels providing clear guideposts amidst a backdrop of macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.
Analysis by Terence Hove, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
SNP500 ShortThis is against the H4 trend; however there is very good resistance at this level, as it is the all-time high and contesting the previous week's high.
There is a pattern on M15 to show a potential reversal zone.
Multiple tops on M15 to H1 with divergence and showing the trends flattening out.
This is against the trend so look to get out at M15 oversold
SPX500 Futures Hold Gains Ahead of Nvidia EarningsSPX500 Futures – Overview
Markets Edge Higher Ahead of Nvidia Earnings
U.S. stock futures are trading slightly higher on Wednesday as investors await Nvidia’s earnings after today’s closing bell, seen as a bellwether for global AI demand and overall market sentiment.
🔹 Technical Outlook
Price has stabilized above 6,471, confirming bullish momentum.
As long as it holds above this level, upside targets are 6,484 → 6,512 → 6,528.
✅ A 1H close above 6,484 would reinforce the bullish outlook toward higher resistance.
⚠️ However, if the index reverses and stabilizes below 6,471 (1H close), this would trigger a bearish correction toward 6,447.
🔹 Key Levels
Pivot: 6,471
Resistance: 6,484 – 6,512 – 6,528
Support: 6,447 – 6,425 – 6,390
✅ Summary:
SPX500 futures are consolidating in bullish territory ahead of Nvidia earnings. A breakout above 6,484 would extend upside momentum, while a drop back below 6,471 risks a correction toward 6,447.
S&P500 at Resistance: Nvidia Earnings Could Decide the Next Move📊 US500 (S&P 500) has rallied recently 📈, but it’s still struggling to break through the current highs 🔼🧱.
💡 I believe the next move could hinge heavily on Nvidia’s earnings report tomorrow 🖥️💵.
👉 If the report is positive, watch for a break and retest above the current range to position long 🚀.
👉 If the report is negative, we could see the broader stock market sell off 📉.
⚠️ This is for educational purposes only and not financial advice 📚🔒
Why Stocks Often Drop in September — And Why Algos Make It WorseSeptember has historically been a challenging month for stocks, especially indexes like the S&P 500. While several human behavioral factors contribute, algorithmic trading significantly amplifies this effect. I am expecting S&P to retreat to 5900 lvls and stocks to drop heavily alreadt end of this week.
Algos Are Programmed to React to Seasonal Patterns:
Many trading algorithms are trained on historical market data that include the “September Effect”—the well-known tendency for stocks to dip during this month. As a result, these algorithms trigger sell signals simultaneously as September approaches, cascading into accelerated selling pressure.
Profit Taking at Summer’s End:
Institutional investors and traders often take profits at the end of August after strong summer gains, reducing exposure before expected volatility. This human behavior feeds into the algo models, reinforcing selling trends.
Order Splitting and Speed Amplify Moves:
Algorithms slice large orders into smaller ones to minimize market impact, but when many algos do this in sync, it leads to sharp intraday swings. High-frequency trading can exacerbate rapid price drops as sell orders pile up quickly.
Hedging and Risk Controls Kick In:
As prices fall, algos are programmed to cut risk by selling to limit losses. These automated sell-offs can create feedback loops, pushing prices down faster than human emotions alone would.
Volatility Spurs More Selling:
Increased price swings prompt further algorithmic adjustments and human caution—creating a self-reinforcing cycle of volatility and declines.
Bottom Line: With profit-taking wrapping up August and algo-driven selling ramping up, the S&P 500 is likely to begin a retreat of at least 5% soon, echoing historical September patterns. For disciplined investors, this period is an opportunity to consider taking profits or reducing risk before broader market weakness potentially sets in.
US500 breaks consolidation, eyeing all-time highs after pullbackThe US500 reached a key support area on the H1 chart and started building a bullish structure.
On the intraday (M5/M1), price broke above local resistance and then retested the breakout zone with a clean pullback. This retest was confirmed by a strong bullish candle, signaling continuation to the upside.
Trade plan:
Entry: after confirmation of the pullback at the breakout zone.
Stop-loss: below support (around 6437).
Target: all-time high zone at 6485–6490.
Risk management: once the first target is reached, stop can be moved to breakeven to protect capital.
This setup supports the expectation of bullish continuation, as long as support holds.
S&P500 3-month Channel Up still valid. Buy.The S&P500 index (SPX) kept its 3-month Channel Up intact last week despite a short-term correction as the price stopped exactly on its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) and following Chair Powell's remarks on rate cut possibilities, it rebounded aggressively.
Given also that the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been its long-term Support since May 01, the stage is set for the pattern's new Bullish Leg. With the last one being +8.80%, we expect the index to hit at least 6750 next.
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💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
SPX & NDX , Stay heavy on positionsSPX & NDX , Stay heavy on positions (2x leverage)
Currently in a short-term bounce signal zone. Maintaining the same outlook as before.
** This analysis is based solely on the quantification of crowd psychology.
It does not incorporate price action, trading volume, or macroeconomic indicators.
S&P 500 Fed independence concerns + tariff threatsFed/Political Risk: Trump announced the dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, citing mortgage-related allegations. Markets saw this as a fresh escalation of political pressure on the Fed. The dollar initially dropped (-0.4%) before recovering, while gold held a +1% gain. Treasuries steepened sharply (2s30s at steepest since Jan 2022), highlighting rising risk premia around Fed independence. This adds uncertainty for monetary policy credibility, a potential headwind for US equities.
Tariffs/Tech Risk: Trump threatened new tariffs and export restrictions on advanced technology in retaliation for digital services taxes. This raises headline risk for US megacaps, particularly tech, and could weigh on Nasdaq sentiment.
Geopolitics (France): US–France tensions escalated after comments from Ambassador Kushner, coinciding with France’s plan to recognize a Palestinian state. While not directly market-moving, it reinforces geopolitical overhangs that could spill into risk sentiment.
Market Impact:
Futures: S&P 500 (-0.14%), Nasdaq (-0.18%) modestly lower.
Rates: Steepening curve adds pressure to longer-duration equities.
Risk Tone: Elevated political/geopolitical noise may cap near-term upside.
For S&P 500 traders: Fed independence concerns + tariff threats = watch for tech underperformance and a potential pickup in volatility around US political headlines.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6516
Resistance Level 2: 6540
Resistance Level 3: 6565
Support Level 1: 6380
Support Level 2: 6360
Support Level 3: 6340
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SPX500 Weekly Trend AnalysisSPX500 Weekly Trend Analysis
The SPX500 on a weekly timeframe continues to show an upward trend within a rising channel that has been in place since 2020. The price behavior in relation to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement levels is particularly interesting—the previous two pullbacks both stopped at this key level, confirming its significant role as support.
As a reminder, after forming a low in 2020, the SPX500 entered a long bullish trend that lasted until December 2021, when it recorded its first high at 4500.00. After that, the index pulled back to the 50.0% Fibonacci level and then continued with a new bullish rally.
A new higher high was formed around 6000.00, which is again connected to the -50.0% Fibonacci level. The next pullback, similar to the previous one, found support at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a continuation of the upward trend.
Based on this pattern, there is a realistic possibility of a new bullish rally with a potential target of 7500.00 (-50.0% Fibonacci level). Following the previous cycles from low to high and pullback, the average interval is approximately 920–930 days, which provides a rough time projection:
Next high: By the end of 2026
Next pullback: First part of 2027 or, at the latest, by October 2027
This pattern confirms the strong long-term growth structure and implies that the SPX500 will likely maintain its positive momentum for several more years, with periodic corrections that rely on key Fibonacci levels.
SPX500 Awaits Breakout Ahead of Nvidia EarningsSPX – S&P 500 Futures Update
After Powell’s Jackson Hole speech pumped markets on Friday, traders rushed into risk assets, lifting the Dow to fresh records.
Powell didn’t commit to cuts, but also didn’t rule them out — which was enough for buyers. Now, the focus shifts to Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings on August 27, arguably the most important event of the quarter.
🔹 Technical Outlook
The price has stabilized below 6,468, which signals potential downside toward 6,425.
A clean break below 6,425 would confirm continuation of the bearish move toward 6,389.
Conversely, a 4H candle close above 6,468 would shift momentum back to the upside, opening the path to 6,528 and a possible new ATH.
🔹 Key Levels
Support: 6,425 – 6,389
Resistance: 6,486 – 6,528
✅ Summary:
The market is consolidating under the pivot. Watch for a decisive 4H close to confirm the next leg — either a downside extension or a breakout to fresh highs.
S&P's "hugely overbought" towards 6375!1). Position Volume dropping! 2). Big institutions (Banks & Insurance) have backed off on higher Risk positions! 3). Huge resistance at .728 fib & trend! 4). Trump tariff talk is likely adding to a fall as well! 5). We're looking for a "SELL" trade @ 6375, since buying is too risky at the moment...Good Luck!
NVDA Earnings, US GDP, US Core PCE - August Wrap-UpAs if Jackson Hole noise wasn't enough, sprinkle in some additional major news
for this week.
NVDA Earnings (After Close Wednesday)
US GDP (Thursday)
US Unemployment Claims (Thursday)
US PCE / US Core PCE (Friday)
NVDA at nearly 8% market cap for S&P can certainly move the market
Look at NVDA, MAGS, SPY, QQQ and they all look like 50/50 charts - price could
go either direction
NVDA expecting +/- 11.00 points on the week, average earnings move is around 12.66 points
I'm looking to fade any big gap on NVDA into September monthly and quarterly expirations with low risk options trades and I'm also deleveraging some of my naked puts and ratio spreads
to take profits and add more buying power for the end of year
I'll be watching - let's see how everything shakes out
S&P (CASH500) | 30min Inverse Head & Shoulders | GTradingMethodHello Traders.
Welcome to today’s trade idea by GTradingMethod.
🧐 Market Overview:
Following Friday’s sharp rally after Jackson Hole, the S&P 500 may be forming a bull flag. If confirmed, this setup could drive an equal measured move higher, with the inverse head & shoulders pattern acting as a potential breakout structure.
📊 Trade Plan:
Risk/Reward: 3.6
Entry: 6460.1
Stop Loss: 6453.8
Take Profit 1 (50%): 6481
Take Profit 2 (50%): 6489
💡 GTradingMethod Tip:
Always wait for confirmation of breakout patterns to avoid false moves.
📌 Please note:
This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
Bubble, No Bubble: Stocks Are So Back After Powell Cranks It UpStretched valuations, talks of froth, and overall market fatigue. That’s what investors were saying for stocks (especially those AI plays) up until Powell brought up the vibe that rekindled the animal spirits. Let’s talk about that.
📈 Powell Drops the Mic
Markets started last week exhausted. The S&P 500 SP:SPX was wobbling, the Nasdaq NASDAQ:IXIC was shedding like your beautiful ragdoll cat, and traders were probably looking up vacation getaways instead of technical patterns.
But then on Friday we all came together to hear one man speak . It was the same neutral, laid back tone, but this one time something was different. As if… a bolder man was on the stage, unafraid to crank it up. Or was it more of an elderly man finally giving the kids what they wanted?
In his speech at Jackson Hole, Fed boss Jay Powell acknowledged what markets had been hoping to hear: “The risk of rising prices has diminished.” Translation? The Fed finally sees inflation cooling down. And the labor market might need some help, too.
That was all it took. Risk appetite flipped, sending equities way higher into Friday’s close (even though Monday's futures dipped a bit ).
The S&P 500 SP:SPX booked a solid 1.5% pop, the Dow Jones TVC:DJI surged 1.9% to a fresh all-time high, and the Nasdaq NASDAQ:IXIC managed to erase much of its weekly losses after a strong 2% increase. Powell didn’t cut rates yet — he just gave markets a few reasons to believe cuts are coming.
🚧 The Job Market Pivot
Before Powell spoke, traders were bracing for maybe one rate cut this year, if any. Sticky inflation had the Fed cornered. But Powell flipped the narrative, shifting attention to the labor market instead.
The US unemployment rate has climbed nearly a full percentage point over the past year, and job growth is slowing fast, averaging just 35,000 new positions per month over the past three months. Even worse, revisions stripped 258,000 jobs from May and June’s data.
For traders, this was the lightbulb moment: a weakening labor market gives Powell the green light to pivot.
🔥 Inflation Still Isn’t Dead
Here’s the awkward part: while Powell’s tone eased market fears, the inflation problem hasn’t magically vanished. Core CPI is still running 3% year-over-year, well above the Fed’s 2% target, even as the headline CPI ECONOMICS:USCPI stood at 2.7% for July .
Meanwhile, wholesale prices ECONOMICS:USPPI — often a precursor to consumer price trends — surged 0.9% last month , marking their fastest monthly jump in three years.
Powell is walking a tightrope: move too quickly on cuts, and inflation could flare up again; wait too long, and the job market weakens further. The stakes are high, and the balance fragile.
🎈 Bubble Talk, Again
Every time stocks rip higher, the “bubble” debate resurfaces. And honestly? It’s hard to ignore it this time. AI stocks are priced like they’ve already rewired how the world works, and the Nasdaq’s relentless rally looks almost too clean.
But here’s a reality check. We’ve never had a big market crisis for the past 16 years. March 2020? Recovered in a few months. April’s mini-crash? Erased in weeks.
Markets seem determined to brush off every scare and buy the dip. Powell’s pivot only reinforced that attitude: traders don’t care about stretched valuations if the Fed is hinting at cheaper money ahead.
🤖 Nvidia’s Market, Nvidia’s Rules
That’s how we move forward to what’s next. Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA drops earnings on August 27 ( Earnings Calendar for reference). And because this is Nvidia’s market and we all live in it, expectations are sky-high.
Analysts are projecting just under $46 billion in revenue and $1 per share in earnings . But the real focus? Forward guidance.
If Nvidia signals a blockbuster Q3 — something in the ballpark of $54 billion in sales — it could keep fueling the AI mania and push the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 to fresh highs. But if the numbers disappoint, this entire rally could wobble.
Considering Nvidia has added more than $3 trillion in market cap since 2023, it’s no exaggeration to say the stock’s earnings could set the tone for everything else.
🦁 Animal Spirits Are Back
Powell’s softer tone and the Nvidia hype machine have combined to reawaken animal spirits across Wall Street. That makes for a good example on how you can shift from doom-posting about stagflation to refreshing the ATH charts in less than 48 hours.
The S&P and the Dow are at or near record highs, the Nasdaq is eyeing another breakout. What’s not to like? The rally isn’t bulletproof.
It’s being driven as much by vibes as fundamentals right now. Rate cuts haven’t happened yet, the labor market is fragile, and inflation hasn’t fully cooled. The market appears to be trading on optimism — and optimism can turn fast.
🏁 The Bottom Line
Jerome Powell didn’t announce a rate cut, but he did something almost better: he opened the door a bit wider. By acknowledging softer labor data and reduced inflation risks, he revived traders’ appetite and gave permission to believe the rally has legs.
But this story has two big hinges: Nvidia has to deliver, and inflation has to behave. One earnings miss or a hot CPI print, and this animal spirit revival could fade as quickly as it started.
Off to you : Are you long and excited about the outlook? Or you’re in the bear camp and looking for your chance to short this market? Share your views in the comments!