SPXM trade ideas
SNP500 long target 6600.0weaker labor market data has boosted expectations of imminent Fed rate cuts, with markets pricing in a high chance of a September move that would ease financial conditions and support equities. Tech momentum—particularly Nasdaq strength and the addition of Robinhood and AppLovin to the S&P 500—is adding fuel, while investors also position ahead of key inflation data that could reinforce the dovish outlook. Institutional forecasts from Goldman Sachs and Evercore ISI projecting further upside into year-end and beyond have strengthened confidence, making futures an attractive, liquid, and leveraged way to gain exposure to the anticipated rally
SPX | Buy & Sell Setup | 08 Sep 2025 – 11:05 EDT
SPX | Buy & Sell Setup | 08 Sep 2025 – 11:05 EDT
Buy Zone: 6509– 6490
Sell Zone: 6469 – 6357
Scenario 1 : Buy
Entry: 6510
Stop Loss: 6465
Targets:
TP1 → 6580 (1:5)
Analysis:
From Buy Zone (6509– 6490) creates possibilities for a buy move.
Scenario 2 : Sell
Entry: 6465
Stop Loss: 6510
Targets:
TP1 → 6415
TP2 → 6350
Analysis:
From Sell Zone (6469 – 6357) creates possibilities for a sell move.
Stay alert on updates here.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This idea is shared for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please do your own analysis before making trading decisions.
SP500 Long Setup – Fib Confluence to 6649Watching SP500 on the 1H timeframe for a continuation move higher. Price bounced cleanly from the 6469 zone, which lined up with the Fib 0.236 retrace and EMA support.
Entry taken around 6500 with stop placed below recent swing low at 6442–6439. This keeps risk controlled while protecting against invalidation.
Targets are set using Fibonacci confluence and previous structure levels:
• TP1: 6535 (Fib 1.0 / prior reaction level)
• TP2: 6590 (Fib 1.618 extension)
• TP3: 6649 (range extension target)
If momentum continues, a runner could extend beyond 6649, but the main plan is to secure profits at each ladder.
This trade offers strong risk-to-reward with clear invalidation. I’ll manage the position by locking in profits at TP1 and trailing the remainder.
Global Positional TradingWhat is Positional Trading?
Positional trading is a style of trading where positions are held for a longer duration, typically:
Short-term positional trades → A few weeks.
Medium-term positional trades → 1–3 months.
Long-term positional trades → 6 months or more.
The primary goal is to capture big trends rather than small fluctuations. Positional traders look for macro or sectoral themes and align themselves with the direction of the market.
When applied globally, positional trading expands to:
Global stock indices (S&P 500, Nikkei 225, DAX, FTSE 100).
Currencies (EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD).
Commodities (gold, crude oil, natural gas, agricultural products).
Bonds and yields (US 10-year, German bunds).
ETFs that track global sectors or regions.
Why Global Positional Trading?
Trading is no longer restricted to national markets. With the rise of online brokerages, access to global markets has become easier. Global positional trading is powerful because:
Diversification of Opportunities
A trader is not limited to domestic equities but can trade across multiple asset classes worldwide.
Example: If US equities are consolidating, opportunities may exist in Japanese equities or crude oil.
Macro Trends Dominate
Global interest rate cycles, inflation, commodity demand, and geopolitical tensions create long-lasting moves.
Example: The Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 caused months-long surges in crude oil and natural gas.
Riding the “Big Waves”
Unlike intraday volatility, positional traders focus on multi-week/month moves.
Example: The US dollar index (DXY) uptrend during 2022 lasted nearly a year.
Time Flexibility
Global positional traders don’t need to watch charts every second.
Analysis can be weekly/monthly, making it more practical for part-time traders.
Core Principles of Global Positional Trading
Trend Following
The core philosophy is: “The trend is your friend.”
Traders identify global macro trends and align with them.
Fundamental & Macro Analysis
Positional trades often rely on fundamental shifts (interest rates, inflation, GDP growth, trade policies).
Technical Confirmation
Long-term charts (daily, weekly, monthly) are used to confirm entries and exits.
Patience and Discipline
Unlike scalpers, positional traders need to hold through volatility to capture the big picture.
Risk Management
Since positions are held longer, stop-loss levels are wider.
Position sizing becomes critical to avoid large drawdowns.
Global Market Instruments for Positional Trading
1. Equity Indices
S&P 500 (USA), Nasdaq, Dow Jones, DAX (Germany), FTSE (UK), Nikkei 225 (Japan), Hang Seng (Hong Kong), Nifty 50 (India).
Example: A trader might go long on S&P 500 if the US economy shows strong earnings growth.
2. Currencies (Forex)
Major pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF.
Emerging pairs: USD/INR, USD/BRL, USD/ZAR.
Example: If the US Fed raises interest rates while Europe cuts them, traders may hold long USD positions for months.
3. Commodities
Precious metals: Gold, Silver.
Energy: Crude oil, Natural gas.
Agriculture: Soybeans, Wheat, Coffee.
Example: During inflationary phases, gold often trends upward for months.
4. Bonds & Yields
Positional trades can be taken on US Treasury bonds, German bunds, etc.
Example: Rising US yields may lead to a bearish bond trade held for months.
5. ETFs and ADRs
Traders can access international assets through Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) or American Depository Receipts (ADRs).
Key Strategies in Global Positional Trading
1. Trend Following Strategy
Enter in the direction of the global trend.
Example: Long gold during inflationary environments.
2. Breakout Strategy
Identify consolidations and trade the breakout.
Example: Crude oil breaking above $100 in 2022 after consolidation.
3. Mean Reversion Strategy
Buy oversold assets, sell overbought ones.
Example: A currency pair retracing after extended uptrend.
4. Carry Trade Strategy
Borrow in low-interest currency, invest in high-interest currency.
Example: Short JPY (low rate), long AUD (high rate).
5. Sectoral / Thematic Strategy
Position based on global sector themes.
Example: Renewable energy stocks during global energy transition policies.
Tools for Global Positional Trading
Charting Platforms (TradingView, MetaTrader, Thinkorswim).
Fundamental Data Sources (Bloomberg, Reuters, Investing.com, FRED).
Economic Calendars (To track central bank meetings, GDP, inflation).
Sentiment Indicators (Commitment of Traders report, VIX index).
Risk Management Tools (Position sizing calculators, stop-loss automation).
Time Frames for Global Positional Trading
Weekly charts: Best for identifying major trends.
Daily charts: Fine-tuning entries/exits.
Monthly charts: Macro view for long-term investors.
Risk Management in Global Positional Trading
Use wider stop-loss levels due to longer holding periods.
Allocate 2–5% risk per trade.
Hedge with options/futures if needed.
Diversify across asset classes (stocks + commodities + forex).
Advantages of Global Positional Trading
Capture large, sustained moves.
Lower stress compared to intraday.
Fits part-time traders with limited screen time.
More aligned with fundamentals.
Higher profit potential per trade.
Challenges and Risks
Global Event Risk → Wars, pandemics, trade disputes.
Overnight/Weekend Gaps → Sudden gaps in global markets.
Currency Risk → Holding international positions in foreign currencies.
Patience Required → Trades may take months to play out.
Capital Lock-In → Funds are tied up for long durations.
Examples of Global Positional Trades
Gold during 2020 COVID-19 Crisis
From $1,450 to $2,070 within 5 months.
Positional traders captured nearly 40% upside.
US Dollar Index (DXY) in 2022
Fed rate hikes → USD rallied for 10 months.
Long USD positions were classic positional trades.
Crude Oil after Russia-Ukraine War
Jumped from $70 to $130 within weeks.
Positional long trades yielded massive returns.
Psychology of Global Positional Traders
Patience → Letting the trade develop without closing too early.
Conviction → Believing in the analysis despite short-term volatility.
Adaptability → Switching positions when fundamentals change.
Future of Global Positional Trading
Increasing access via global brokers and apps.
Rising importance of AI-driven analysis for global trends.
Crypto markets adding new positional opportunities.
Geopolitics (US-China trade war, Middle East tensions) making macro trades more relevant.
Conclusion
Global positional trading is about looking beyond short-term noise and focusing on big global trends. It allows traders to participate in long-lasting moves across equities, forex, commodities, and bonds by combining macroeconomic analysis, technical charts, and disciplined risk management.
It requires patience, strong research, and conviction but rewards traders with opportunities to ride the “big waves” of global markets—whether it’s the US dollar’s strength, crude oil surges, or gold’s safe-haven rally.
For traders seeking to diversify, reduce daily stress, and capture significant profits, global positional trading is one of the most effective strategies in today’s interconnected financial world.
Will Fed rate cut expectations continue to fuel US equity gains?
US August job growth missed expectations, highlighting labor market weakness, while rising Fed rate cut odds kept equities higher. Broadcom (AVGO) delivered strong 3Q earnings with robust AI-driven growth and issued an upbeat 4Q revenue forecast. Despite valuation concerns, Morgan Stanley (MS) expects multiple Fed cuts to sustain equity gains and views September dips as buying opportunities.
US500 extended its uptrend, briefly setting a new high. The index remains within the ascending channel and above both EMAs, signaling the potential extension of bullish momentum. If US500 holds above EMA21, the index may breach the 6530 high. Conversely, if US500 breaks below EMA21 and the channel’s lower bound, the index could retreat toward the support at 6340.
SPX500USD is still going up slowlyHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD finished the correction (Flat) and went up again just as I've said in previous outlook.
Price is not very impulsive. It looks like it forms an ending diagonal.
So next week we could see this pair slowly going up some more.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small pullback and a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower timeframe to trade longs.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 5, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the trading sessions of the previous week, the S&P 500 Index exhibited a notable downward movement, reaching the Intermediary In Force Pullback Extension of 6370. An Odds-on Secondary Rebound subsequently followed this decline, as the index restored its upward trajectory by achieving the Mean Resistance level of 6502, although it subsequently settled below this benchmark.
It is essential to acknowledge that the current rebound from the Mean Support level of 6447 suggests a significant probability of a sustained upward movement toward the long-term objective, namely the Outer Index Rally at 6543, as detailed in the prior S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis. Conversely, one must consider the potential for a substantial pullback to the Mean Support extension level of 6413, which would likely precede another rebound.
Moreover, it is critical to recognize that the ongoing price fluctuations may induce a considerable pullback after the fulfillment of the Outer Index Rally target at 6543. Following this anticipated downward adjustment, the index will likely resume its upward trend, targeting the completion of the Outer Index Rally at 6420.
SPX topped on Sept 5I believe the Sept 5 Friday gap up and reversal at opening marked the top of the rally since Apr lows.
1. RSI div on Daily
2. Extreme chop and fading momentum since August which is typical for wave 4
3. Broken Apr trend channel and retested
4. Divergence between SPX and NDQ (which didn't make an ATH)
5. Risk-on assets like NASDAQ:SMH (e.g. NASDAQ:NVDA ), AMEX:XLK (e.g. NASDAQ:MSFT ), and BITSTAMP:BTCUSD are all breaking down
Even though there is more upside, it would be limited and we are in the late stage rally since April. Sept seasonality is real.
Weekly insighta EUR/USD S&P500 NVDA METAThis video is a weekly insights report from a financial trader on TradingView. I amdiscussing my analysis and predictions for several financial instruments based on technical and fundamental indicators.
Key Points:
Market Overview: The speaker talks about the impact of recent US unemployment data on the market, which led to a "parabolic" rise in the Euro dollar.
Euro Dollar: Based on a technical analysis of an "expanding diagonal" and an old trend line, the speaker believes a false breakout is likely. They plan to avoid trading USD pairs for the next 11 days, waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision.
S&P 500: The speaker notes a five-wave Elliot wave pattern with an expanding diagonal. They are waiting for the price to break below a trend line and a red confirmation line before considering a short position. They anticipate a "choppy" market for the coming week.
Nvidia: The speaker received "hate comments" for their previous analysis of Nvidia. They stand by their short position, citing a break below the exponential moving average, a "huge" divergence on the monthly chart, and a "shooting star" candle pattern. They note that Nvidia is the heaviest stock in the S&P 500, representing 7.5% of the index.
Bitcoin: The speaker points out that Bitcoin's price has crossed and retested two moving averages, which they see as a bearish sign. They will consider a short position if the price breaks below the previous low. They also expect Bitcoin to be stagnant in the coming week while the market waits for the Fed's decision.
Call to Action : The video concludes with a plea for viewers to subscribe to the speaker's TradingView channel for more trading insights and short-trade opportunities.
S&P 500 At Critical Juncture - 6,500 Breakout or Major RejectionUS500 Technical Analysis: 🎯 At Critical Juncture - 6,500 Breakout or Major Rejection? ⚖️
Asset: US500 (S&P 500 CFD)
Analysis Date: September 5, 2025
Current Closing Price: 6,480.0 (as of 12:59 AM UTC+4)
Timeframes Analyzed: 1H, 4H, D, W
Executive Summary & Market Outlook 🧐
The US500 is knocking on the door of a historic milestone, trading within striking distance of the 6,500 level. 🚪 This represents a massive psychological and technical barrier. The index is in a strong bullish trend but is displaying classic signs of short-term exhaustion and overextension. The price action here is critical: a decisive breakout could unleash a new wave of buying towards 6,600+, while a rejection could trigger the most significant pullback in weeks. This analysis provides a clear roadmap for intraday traders 🎯 and swing traders 📈 navigating this pivotal moment.
Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis 🔍
1. Trend Analysis (Daily & 4-Hour Chart):
Primary Trend: 🟢 Bullish. Price is well above all major Daily Moving Averages, which are sloping upwards in bullish alignment.
Short-Term Trend: 🟡 Bullish but Fragile. The rally has been relentless, leaving the price extended and vulnerable to a sharp, news-driven correction.
2. Key Chart Patterns & Theories:
Ascending Wedge / Bull Flag? 🤔: The recent consolidation near the highs could be interpreted as a small bull flag (pausing before breakout) or the end of an ascending wedge (bearish reversal). The next major candle will likely resolve this.
Elliott Wave Theory 🌊: The rally from the last major low is a clear five-wave impulse. We are likely in the final stages of Wave 5. This suggests the completion of a cycle and warns that a larger corrective phase (Wave 4 or A-B-C) is the next probable move. A typical retracement target is the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the entire Wave 3 move.
Ichimoku Cloud (H4/D1) ☁️: Price is trading far above the Cloud on daily charts, confirming the strong bullish trend. However, this also signals a significant over-extension from mean support, increasing mean reversion risk.
Gann Theory ⏳: The 6,500 level is a key psychological and mathematical resistance. A decisive break and close above it could open the path to the next Gann angle target.
3. Critical Support & Resistance Levels:
Resistance (R1): 6,500 - 6,520 (Key Psychological & Technical Ceiling) 🚨
Resistance (R2): 6,600 (Projected Target)
Current Closing Price: ~6,480
Support (S1): 6,400 - 6,420 (Immediate Support & Prior Breakout Zone) ✅
Support (S2) : 6,300 - 6,320 (Major Support - 38.2% Fib & 21-day EMA) 🛡️
Support (S3): 6,200 (50-day EMA & 50% Fib Retracement)
4. Indicator Consensus:
RSI (14-period on 4H/D): Reading is between 68 and 72, signaling overbought conditions. 📛 This warns of weakening momentum and increased downside vulnerability. A bearish divergence on the 4H chart would be a strong short-term sell signal.
Bollinger Bands (4H) 📏: Price is hugging the upper band, a sign of strong momentum. A move back to the middle band (~6,400) would be a healthy and expected development.
Moving Averages: The bullish alignment (EMA8 > EMA21 > EMA50) is perfect. The EMA 21 on the 4H chart acts as dynamic support and is a key level for the bullish thesis.
Volume & VWAP : Volume has been inconsistent on the most recent push higher, a potential bearish divergence 📉 suggesting a lack of strong conviction from large players at these exact levels.
Trading Strategy & Forecast 🎯
A. Intraday Trading Strategy (5M - 1H Charts):
Bearish Scenario (Rejection Play) ⬇️: Given overbought conditions, this is a high-probability setup. Watch for bearish reversal candlestick patterns (e.g., Bearish Engulfing, Evening Star 🌟, Doji) at or near the 6,500 resistance.
Entry: On confirmation of rejection (e.g., a break below a 1H support low).
Stop Loss : Tight, above 6,520.
Target: 6,420 (TP1), 6,400 (TP2).
Bullish Scenario (Breakout Play) ⬆️: If buyers break through with force, wait for a pullback to the breakout level for a better entry.
Entry: On a re-test of 6,500 as new support.
Stop Loss: Below 6,480.
Target: 6,550 (TP1), 6,600 (TP2).
B. Swing Trading Strategy (4H - D Charts):
Strategy: PATIENCE IS KEY. The risk/reward for new long entries at this resistance is poor. 🚫
Ideal Long Zones: A pullback to 6,320 would be an optimal entry to add long positions for the next leg up in the primary bull trend. A shallower pullback to 6,400 could also offer an opportunity. ✅
Bearish Risk: A daily close below 6,300 would signal a deeper correction is underway, potentially targeting the 6,200 support zone.
Risk Management & Conclusion ⚠️
Key Risk Events: High-impact US data (CPI, PPI, NFP) and Fed commentary are paramount. 🔥 The market is highly sensitive to any hint of a shift in monetary policy.
Geopolitical events can also trigger flight-to-safety flows.
Position Sizing: Due to the potential for explosive volatility at this key level, conservative position sizing is non-negotiable. Risk no more than 1% of capital per trade.
Conclusion: The US500 is at a critical inflection point. ⚖️ The bullish trend is intact, but price is exhausted. This is a low-risk-taking zone. Swing traders should be patient for a better entry. Intraday traders can play the range between 6,400 and 6,500 until a decisive break occurs. The most probable outcome is a pullback to recharge before the next major directional move. 📊
Overall Bias: 🟢 Bullish above 6,320 | 🟡 Neutral/Bearish between 6,480-6,500
Sp500 4H Trading Outlook for the Upcoming Week
In this series of analyses, we review trading perspectives and short-term outlooks.
As can be seen, in each analysis there is a key support/resistance zone near the current price of the asset. The market’s reaction to—or breakout from—this zone will determine the next price movement toward the specified levels.
Important Note: The purpose of these trading outlooks is to highlight key levels ahead of the price and the market’s potential reactions to them. The analyses provided are by no means trading signals!
SPX at verge of breaking down?SP:SPX is treading dangerously in a bearish wedge formation with multiple bearish divergences in RSI.
A breakdown from here could send it around 6200 zone. And that might just be beginning of the fall everyone is waiting for, on account of excessive debt and inflation situation.
Signals Align for an S&P 500 PullbackThe VANTAGE:SP500 has broken below the EMA 200/100/50/20 while forming a bearish rising wedge and completing an Elliott 5-wave sequence. A MACD bearish crossover and an RSI near 40 further confirm downside momentum. However, this sets the stage for attractive buying opportunities in the near term.
SPX500 | Indexes Rise Ahead of JOLTS Data – Key Pivot 6,438S&P 500 & Nasdaq Futures – Update
Futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rebounded on Wednesday, led by gains in Alphabet after its antitrust ruling. Dow futures edged slightly lower as traders await fresh labor market data. The focus today is the JOLTS report (10 a.m. ET), the first of several key releases this week, with nonfarm payrolls on Friday being the most important.
Technical Outlook (SPX500):
🔼 Price reversed from the 6,366 support mentioned in yesterday’s update and has now stabilized above the pivot line at 6,438.
As long as price holds above 6,438, upside momentum is expected toward 6,469 → 6,489, with extended resistance at 6,528.
🔻 On the downside, a confirmed 1H close below 6,420 would shift momentum bearish, exposing 6,389 → 6,361.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 6,469 – 6,489 – 6,528
Support: 6,420 – 6,389 – 6,361
In September, the S&P 500 Index Reached a New All-Time HighIn September, the S&P 500 Index Reached a New All-Time High
September is a month that statistically has the worst reputation for the S&P 500. However, in 2025 things may be different, as today the index hit a record high, rising above 6,520 points.
Bullish sentiment is being driven by:
→ expectations of an interest rate cut in September, which is believed will give the US economy a positive boost (and increase corporate profits);
→ yesterday’s release of the ISM Services PMI (actual = 52.0, forecast = 50.9), which pointed to industrial growth;
→ strong corporate results – for example, Broadcom (AVGO) published a solid report yesterday.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart
Analysing the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 on 28 August, we:
→ identified a support zone below 6,370;
→ noted several bearish signals and suggested that 6,500 could act as psychological resistance (with a potential false bullish breakout).
Indeed, since then (as shown by the blue arrows):
→ the price made a false breakout above 6,500;
→ then dropped to 6,370 to test the support zone;
→ after which it turned upwards again, forming a broad bullish engulfing pattern.
New data allows us to refine the position of the short-term channel (marked in blue), with the following perspectives:
→ Bearish view: the price is close to the upper boundary of the channel, which already showed resistance this morning (highlighted by the red arrow) – the candlestick has a long upper shadow.
→ Bullish view: yesterday’s rally demonstrated signs of imbalance in favour of buyers (as detailed in the description of the Fair Value Gap pattern), and the breakout above 6,500 looks genuine (since the price is consolidating above it).
Both viewpoints seem to be well-reasoned, but the market is unlikely to remain in balance, as today (15:30 GMT+3) the release of US labour market data is scheduled – arguably the key event of the week in the economic calendar.
Depending on the figures, the S&P 500 might:
→ attempt to break through the upper boundary;
→ or retreat towards the median of the blue channel.
Be prepared for volatility spikes.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
S&P | KEY RESISTANCE | GTradingMethodHello traders!
Has the S&P finally met its match?
Is this just a retest… or the beginning of a much deeper move?
- Broke diagonal support earlier this year
- Retesting previous support now
- Potential daily double top forming
If the retest holds, it’s a long way down… 📉
What are your thoughts? Keen to hear them :)
Signing off
G