DCO trade ideas
John Deere position trade setupI have been wanting an excuse to add this to my portfolio for a while now. Primarily because Bill Gates has it in his portfolio. I like to try and copy the most successful investors like Warren Buffett, Cathy Wood, Bill Gates, etc... I paid the market price today for a position with a cost average of $525. The intrinsic value of the stock is between $250 - $1050 so its not ideal to be in at $525 but I am not playing the voting game, I prefer the weighing game. I want to see how the position affects the other things I have in my portfolio and hopefully improve the performance with this stock in there. Maybe I will buy more if I can find a reason to add to the position in case it starts losing money because dividends are being paid out soon. I have drawn a simple technical analysis predicting a two legged pullback pattern.
the wedge pattern breakout near ATHStock is outperforming the index and trading near its all-time high and forming a small wedge pattern, indicating consolidation before a potential breakout. A sustained move above $507.50 could trigger bullish momentum. Targeting $553 in the near term. Risk-reward remains favorable with strong price structure and bullish sentiment.
Farming and construction equipment on Rise, DE has chanceDE might get chance in the recent reported boom of farming and construction equipment makers rise in the US.
DE is already on 2.2% rise as per Reuters.
Machinery are really affected by the volatility in the Tariff war, some time increasing and some time decreasing. Every business wants a secure stable growth. These business might fill the gap to make the consumers of these products a bit stable on the prices in the volatile Tariff war.
There has been an uptrend from April, breaking the sloppy downward trend. Making higher lows in the trend.
The price right now is good level, a bit side ways action, first TP would be around 520, if the price breaks this level than I would definitely wait for a retracement and then add more position on 520 range.
Right now price and volume signal has supported the uptrend.
$DE Breaking Out of Flat Base?I went long NYSE:DE on Mar 5th after it bounced right back over the 50 DMA (red). It had been choppy, so I waited to add to the position until today. Why today? If you look you can see the pattern of the candles kept getting tighter and consolidating around the shorter term EMAs. I had drawn in what felt to me to be a resemblance of a flat base pattern. It broke above that with conviction this morning, so I have added to bring up to a full-size position.
My stop on the added portion will be just below the LOD and the remaining stop has been moved up to the most recent higher low.
If you like this idea, please make sure it fits with your trading plan. These are simply my ideas.
Deere & Company: Trucks/Construction/Farm MachineryKey arguments in support of the idea.
• Excessive Optimism Amid a Weak Market.
• Economic Uncertainty Driven by Trump’s Policies.
Investment Thesis
The recent surge in Deere & Co. (DE) stock is difficult to justify. Despite the company’s
technological edge, the agriculture equipment market remains weak. Recent earnings
from competitors CNH Industrial (CNH) and AGCO Corporation (AGCO) painted a grim
outlook for 2025, with both reporting continued sales declines in Q4 2024 and
disappointing margin forecasts.
Following DE’s earnings release, the stock rallied over 15%, even as the consensus EPS
estimate for FY25 was revised downward from $21.86 to $19.43. Industry weakness is
further confirmed by AEM reports. Notably, none of the major players provided clear
guidance on how tariff increases would impact them, aside from vague hints that pricing
adjustments might be necessary.
Even if higher tariffs result in a supply shortage for agricultural equipment and spare
parts in the U.S., we do not expect significant optimism for the sector. While price
adjustments may provide some support, 2025 is shaping up to be a challenging year for
farmers:
• Tariff hikes could delay interest rate cuts, making it harder to finance new equipment
purchases.
• Trump has frozen IRA farm subsidies and initiated a deportation program, potentially
leading to labor shortages.
• According to Bloomberg consensus forecasts, corn and soybean prices are unlikely
to rise, further pressuring farm incomes.
Price Action & Trading Outlook
Historically, DE has traded within a wide range, often experiencing pullbacks after post-
earnings rallies, especially when the run-up lacked clear catalysts. While the stock has a
track record of beating consensus estimates, the current setup presents a high risk of
correction given its elevated valuation multiples and macro headwinds.
We anticipate a downside move to $432 over the next two months, with a stop-loss at
$505.
Many reasons to like this chart.I'm very bullish on DE for so many reasons.
There is a Bollinger Band contraction pattern with a big bullish candle crossing the midline,
highlighted by the yellow O on the chart. This is an entry signal.
Demand has increased and will soon absorb the supply at this level clearing the path for higher prices. This is evidenced by the increasing volume of the past 5 trading days and the bigger spread candles of the past 3 days when compared to the candles and volume since the trend top
on 1.27.2025.
The CCI indicator is also rising confirming that buyers are entering the market.
There is a double top forming and if the price breakouts I think $540 is very possible.
There was an earnings beat last week with several price revisions by analyst following this stock.
Trend Continuation on Deere & Co. DEWhat is most striking about this picture is the sudden change in price action - this may be a sign of continuation of trend and completion of XABC harmonic pattern. Technicals on VZO, Stoch RSI are quite suggestive. BB%PCT quickly flipped back to bullish. The bullish engulfing candle crossed vWAP, US and MIDAS lines simultaneously. Good luck out there and manage your risk.
Will it be a continued upside? Following CAT?NYSE:DE 's long-term trend has been intact, and the recent break into a new high has sparked a new high for this producer manufacturing stock. However, will Trump's tariffs derail it? Regardless, DE.US could be a long-term play going forward.
Price action
The stock has broken out of the corrective downtrend channel, confirming the uptrend resumption. The weekly chart shows a strong upside after breaking above the weakened resistance, confirming the ascending triangle. Furthermore, the RSI momentum is strong and the 20, 50, and 200 EMAs are trending strongly.
Momentum
Long-term MACD's histogram is negative but weak. The signal line is looking to cross above and may resume the upside momentum.
The stochastic Oscillator (62, 12, 12) had a crossover at the 50-line and this signal a high potential resumption of the mid-term upside momentum.
The rate of change managed to rise sharply above the zero line.
Volume and Trend strength are in a healthy stage. Both are displayed by volume and Directional movement index.
Potential Risk:
The stock is trending near the all-time high with strong parabolic rise. There may be wild and wide pullback, hence my stop loss will be wide.
Deere bull flagNYSE:DE is still a bull flag, since the last post
has multiple supports coming together in the 420-410 range:
* 415-410; a level that was previously a resistance and can flip to support
* weekly 21 EMA @ 415
* Ascending support coming up @ 415
* 0.618 fib @ 418 (from the nov low to nov high)
DE bull flagNYSE:DE had a great ER and exploded out of the multi year range, only to come back in...
it bounced off of the 50 daily SMA and now forming a bull flag
if industrials catch a bid, this can move, alerts are set on breakout
also has a huge volume shelf support from the multi year consolidation
Deere & Company: $DE - This Dinosaur is on the MOVE! 74% UpsideDeere & Company - NYSE:DE 🚜
Your not ready for this Dinosaur stocks next move! 🦖
One of the best High Five Setups I've seen!
-H5 Indicator is GREEN
-Bullish Rectangle Breakout that's retesting right now
-Stage 5 Setup, Breaking out of Stage 1 into Stage 2!
-Launching of AVP Volume Shelf with SPACE
-Wr% working on forming support to form the Williams Consolidation Box
🎯$565 🎯$762 ⏳Before Nov2028
NFA