Home Depot Long52W RANGE - $144.25 - $207.60
MARKET CAP - $212.8B
AVERAGE VOLUME – 6,060,986
BETA – 1.14
DIV YIELD – 1.91%
PRICE/BOOK – 83.66
P/E – 25.26
EPS – 7.21
EARNINGS YIELD – 5.07%
In December 2017, Home Depot set out new long-term financial targets, which are highly likely to be achieved in fiscal year 2020. HD reaffirmed its financial targets for fiscal 2020 while it updated the return on invested capital target to reflect the impact of the Tax Reform in 2017. HD expects total sales in range of $115-120bn, with annual compound growth of 4.5-6%. On top of this the company now expects a return on invested capital to be more than 40% (previously 36.4-39.6%) – this reflects the positive impact of the new tax reform. The company plans to accelerate investments in the next three years to enhance shareholder value and mainly it’s customer’s experience.
HD has been gaining from its focus on professional customers (pro customers). Recently, the company has also acquired Compact Power Equipment which moved another step forward for their pro customers portfolio service offerings.
Risk wise – the only concerns would be the inflated P/E ratio against the sector and S&P 500. Macroeconomic problems could be another risk – harsh credit access. Home Depot’s main threat is LOW with its competitive pricing, expansion in aspect of location and the quality of merchandise.
NeroTree Capital rates Home Depot Inc as a BUY with a price target of $190.
Trade ideas
Home Depot Inc.In this boring Sunday, a provocation on Home Depot.
The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its growth in earnings per share, revenue growth, notable return on equity and good cash flow from operations.
However there is an aspect that caught my attention, Home Depot has very weak liquidity. Currently, the Quick Ratio is 0.38 which clearly shows a lack of ability to cover short-term cash needs.
The stockholders' equity in 4Q has significantly decreased by 67% from the same quarter last year. The key liquidity measurements indicate that the company is in a position in which financial difficulties could develop shortly.
It occurred immediately to me they have to pay $27 million to settle allegations in California that the retailer illegally disposed of hazardous waste and tossed customer records without first rendering personal information unreadable.
$27 million is nothing for Home Depot, assuming they are the only to pay...
Home Depot (HD)Seems overbought. Waiting for it to retrace back to support (181.00). Then watching to see if it falls below or moves sideways or bounces. Also, expecting it to come back to the 200 moving average and bounce at which point I would consider entering. At this point, I will make a buying decision.
I think HD is going to break out today or tomorrowTrendlines converged yesterday. Seems to indicate a move soon. Expect move upwards if support @ 183.23 is broken. I think it's worth between 186 and 189 today based on discounted earnings model. Model not well tested yet, needs a couple more quarters.
THE WEEK AHEAD: HD, CSCO, TGT, BBY, WMT, GPS, AMAT EARNINGSWe have bevvy of retail earnings announcements next week as the full season tapers off:
HD announces earnings on Tuesday before market open with a background implied volatility of 23% (top quarter of 52-week range).
CSCO -- Wednesday before market open with a background of 27 (near 52-week high).
TGT -- Wednesday before market open, at 36 (top quarter of 52-week range).
BBY -- Thursday, before market open, at 53 (near 52-week high).
WMT -- Thursday, before market open, at 25 (near 52-week high).
GPS -- Thursday, after market close, at 44 (above middle, but below top quarter of 52-week range).
AMAT -- Thursday, after market close, at 41 (near 52-week high).
I generally prefer playing earnings where the background volatility exceeds 50%, and it's in the top-quarter of its 52-week range, implying that the best candidate for an earnings contraction play would be BBY with AMAT close behind/worth watching for an increase in implied volatility running into the announcement.
Broad-market exchange-traded fund-wise, there isn't much to play: the Brazilian exchange-traded fund continues to print implied volatility percentages at or above 30% (currently, 35-ish), followed by the petro exchange-traded fund, XOP (34).
For non-earnings individuals, TEVA (72/upper end of its 52-week range) continues to garner my attention, along with CTL (56), which -- post-earnings -- maintains high volatility.
The majors -- well, there isn't much to look at. IWM leads with a background implied of 16, which is basically tied with the QQQ's at 16. SPY comes in at a paltry 13 ... .
On the volatility product front, the first /VX future trading at or above 16 is out in May (184 DTE), meaning that a <90 DTE VIX Term Structure trade isn't in the offing for me. However, the VXST/VIX ratio finished Friday's session somewhat elevated (.92), so it's worth keeping an eye out for any >1.00 pops in which to consider Contango Drift trades, particularly as we wind into a rollover with VIX spot trading at 11.29 relative to the Nov contract's 11.60 (2 DTE).