Gold’s outlook after Friday’s newsA question came in on TradingView about gold’s outlook after Friday’s news.
My analysis methodology is built on a holistic review of exchange data, where options flow plays a central role — something long-time followers of my posts are already familiar with.
So here’s what Friday’s options flow is quietly telling us:
🔸 The bearish put spread (on November option series ) targeting lower levels from October 8th onward is still intact — suggesting downside sentiment remains in play.
Now, let’s be realistic:
Sophisticated players can always flip this position mid-flight by adding futures to hedge — turning it into a neutral or even bullish setup if the rally continues.
After all, we’re dealing with pros with deep pockets — and they don’t like losing money.
They’ll adjust. They’ll hedge. They’ll exit clean.
🔸 Second, Friday’s CME activity leaned bearish (screen attached)— or at least, profit-taking (fixing).
We see call strikes above current price either being closed or re-sold.
Volume is present — but open interest is flat, declining, or even negative.
That tells a story:
No new conviction for higher prices.
Just closing old upside bets.
📌 Bottom line:
The flow doesn't scream "crash coming right now" — but it does whisper:
"Be careful with the longs."
Trade ideas
Gold Rallies as Geopolitical Tensions EscalatedCOMEX: 1-Ounce Gold Futures ( COMEX:1OZ1! )
Without warning, the music at the Wall Street merry-go-round suddenly stops.
On Thursday, October 9th, China’s Commerce Ministry issues a directive, requiring foreign suppliers to obtain approval to export products with rare-earth materials originating from China if they account for 0.1% or more of the good’s total value. Goods produced with certain technologies from China are also subject to the export controls. Both restrictions apply to products manufactured outside of China.
The next day, US President Donald Trump immediately retaliates with a 100% additional tariff for goods imported from China, starting Nov. 1st. He indicated in a social-media post that the duties will come on top of 30% imposed this year on China, as well as tariffs in place on many Chinese goods before the year started.
Prior to Trump’s comments, US stocks were rising sizably on Friday, with the Nasdaq Composite hitting a new all-time intraday high. The TruthSocial post, sent an hour before market close, immediately set off a broad market selloff. At the end of the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closes down 878.82 points, or 1.9%, at 45,479.60. The S&P 500 lost 2.71% to settle at 6,552.51, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 3.56% to 22,204.43. The broad-based index’s decline was the largest since April 10th.
While the market is under stress, we have witnessed a classic case of flight-to-safety. At the same time when stocks and cryptos slide, gold pops back up above $4,000 again and settles at $4,035.5 an ounce, up $62.9 or +1.58% for the day. Gold futures contracts also rally with large trade volume.
• The lead contract GCZ5 for benchmark COMEX Gold (100 oz) closes at 4,035.5 with a daily volume of 352,500. In notional terms, the transaction value is $142.2 billion, equivalent to 1,096.4 tons of gold.
• The lead contract GOZ5 for E-Mini Gold (50 oz) closes at 4,036 with a volume of 9,555. Notional value is $1.9 billion, equivalent to 14.9 tons of gold.
• The lead contract MGCZ5 for Micro Gold (10 oz) closes at 4,036.2 with a volume of 640,430. Notional value is $25.8 billion, equivalent to 199.2 tons of gold.
• The lead contract 1OZZ5 for 1-ounce Gold closes at 4,036.75 with a volume of 61,886.
Notional value is $250 million, equivalent to 1.9 tons of gold.
Here are the key reasons supporting the record high prices:
• Economic Uncertainty: Widespread concern about a potential U.S. recession and a shifting global economic order fueled demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
• Lower Interest Rates: Investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, making non-yielding assets like gold more attractive compared to bonds and other investments.
• Geopolitical Instability: A combination of global events, including a prolonged U.S. government shutdown and heightened trade tensions, contributed to a general sense of unease, driving investors to gold.
• Central Bank Purchases: Record buying by central banks has also supported the price of gold.
• Weak Dollar: The Dollar Index is at 99.336, down 8.8% year-to-date. Weak dollar is bullish for all commodities. Global investors pay less to buy gold when they convert local currency into dollar.
What is so significant about the current gold rally?
• The 2025 surge in gold prices has outpaced major past rallies, including those during the 2007-09 recession and the pandemic.
• The move above $4,000 an ounce marks a historic moment, signifying a significant rush into alternative assets amid economic fears.
On April 28th, I published “The Gold-Silver Ratio Explained” on TradingView. At the time, the Ratio was 100 with gold at $3,330 and silver at $33.0.
On October 10th, spot gold is quoted at $4,035.5 while silver is quoted at $47.52. This gives the Gold-Silver Ratio at 84.9. Judging from this important benchmark, gold prices are less extreme than six months ago, even though the price is $700 higher.
Trade Setup with 1-Ounce Gold Futures
Futures market shows bullish sentiment on gold. CFTC’s Commitments of Traders report shows that, as of September 23rd, COMEX gold futures ( CSE:GC ) have total open interest (OI) of 528,789 contracts.
• “Managed Money” holds 198,826 Long contracts, 38,277 Short contracts, and 32,516 contracts at spread positions.
• The long/short ratio of 5.2-to-1 shows that “Smart Money” is very bullish on gold.
Traders who share the bullish view could explore the new 1-ounce gold futures ($1OZ). This pocket-size product is a new way to trade in the gold market, representing just 1/10 the size of a Micro Gold (MGC) futures contract and 1/100 of a Gold (GC) futures contract, making it accessible to all gold traders.
With an initial margin of just $180, traders could gain full exposure to 1 ounce of gold. As of October 11th, the February 2026 contract (1OZG6) is quoted at 4066.75.
Hypothetically, if gold prices move up by 5%, a long futures position would more than double in value (= (4066.75*0.05) / 180 = 113%). This futures contract has a built-in leverage of 22.6:1.
For comparison, owning physical gold has a return of just 5% if gold prices go up by 5%.
The risk of buying gold futures is falling gold prices. Traders could set up a stoploss on their buy order. For illustration, a stoploss at 3,900 would set the maximum loss at $166.75 (= 4066.75–3900). This is below the $180 initial margin.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Gold MCX Future - Intraday Technical Analysis - 24 Oct., 2025$MCX:GOLD — Chart Pathik Insights | 24-Oct-25
Gold continues to advance, holding firm at 124,247, consolidating just above the zero line at 124,104 after a robust upside move from the midweek lows. Today’s levels lay out key turning zones for session traders who demand structure and decisive signals.
Bearish Outlook:
Short setups become actionable below 123,179, particularly if sellers regain control at or beneath the add-long (123,450) and long-exit (122,955) zones.
Downside Levels:
122,683: First short target for quick booking or cover.
121,804: Deeper extension should downward momentum continue.
Risk Control: Keep stops tight above 123,450; cover or reduce position if price closes above for more than one bar.
Bullish Outlook:
Long ideas gain traction above 123,721, with momentum confirmed on advances above 123,945 and strong closes above resistance.
Upside Levels:
125,525: Targeted resistance for intraday trend profit-taking.
126,404: Major extension if breakout energy persists.
Risk Control: Manage risk on new longs at 123,450 or 123,179, as per session volatility and entry structure.
Neutral Zone:
124,104 stands as the near-term control line. Price persistence here will keep trade choppy — let the market break cleanly above or below to trigger the next leg of activity.
Reference these levels to stay structured and always play within your system.
If these insights support your gold strategy, show your love: boost, comment, and share! Your feedback keeps these levels coming for all learners and disciplined traders.
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Gold Mcx Future update on 23/10/2025 Price 1,23,500/- Per 10g MCX GOLD (DEC 2025 FUTURES) — QUICK MARKET UPDATE
As of 23 Oct 2025 · 13 : 25 UK / 17 : 55 IST
Last Trade: ₹ 1 23 500 (– 0.9 % intraday · heavy sell-off in progress)
Bias: Bearish | Market Regime: High-volatility unwind | Sentiment: Fear building
Market Pulse
Gold is sliding sharply as intraday longs unwind across MCX and COMEX.
The ₹ 1 24 000 support gave way within the last hour, triggering algorithmic selling and dealer gamma hedges.
At ₹ 1 23 500, the market has erased most of this week’s bounce and is back in line with the lower end of the October value zone.
Macro cues are unsupportive:
The US 10-year yield hovers near 4 %,
USD Index firm around 98.8,
ETF flows negative for a third week.
The combination keeps risk assets on the defensive and gold under pressure.
Technical Read
Structure: Lower-high sequence confirmed.
Daily EMAs: 21 < 55 < 89 < 200 → bearish alignment.
Immediate range: ₹ 1 22 800 – ₹ 1 24 200.
Momentum: RSI ≈ 42, MACD below signal → trend weakness intact.
Failure to hold ₹ 1 23 400 could open the door toward ₹ 1 22 900 and then ₹ 1 22 400.
Order Flow Snapshot
Large sell blocks have reappeared near ₹ 1 23 900 – ₹ 1 24 100.
Cumulative delta remains negative (≈ – 2 000 lots).
No evidence yet of strong absorption by physical or hedging accounts.
Cross-Asset Signals
Asset Last Change Comment
XAUUSD 4 102 $ – 0.2 % Mirrors MCX weakness
USD Index 98.8 + 0.2 % Dollar bid caps metals
US 10Y Yield 3.99 % + 0.8 % Real-rate headwind
Crude Oil (MCX) ₹ 5 425 + 5.3 % Inflation beta higher
Silver (MCX) ₹ 1 48 670 + 2 % Still outperforming gold
Strategy Desk View
Gold is now in short-term breakdown mode after a textbook failure at the ₹ 1 24 300 zone.
The path of least resistance is lower until buyers defend the ₹ 1 22 800 band.
Momentum traders remain short-biased; positional players can look to cover part-profits near ₹ 1 22 400 – ₹ 1 22 600.
Volatility likely to stay elevated as dealers remain short gamma.
Bottom Line:
The rally attempt is over for now. With the dollar firm and yields sticky, MCX Gold could retest the ₹ 1 22 000 area before stabilising.
Expect two-way volatility but the bias remains sell-on-rise until the market closes back above ₹ 1 24 600.
Disclaimer: This note is for market insight and educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Trade responsibly and manage risk.
#Gold #MCX #Commodities #MarketUpdate #BullionAdvise #Finscan #Trading #Macro #InstitutionalFlows
Gold Today's gold chart has 11 drawings from the monthly timeframe in pink to the 15min timeframe in blue.
top down analysis favors the higher timeframe levels for strength but the best entries are found on the lower timeframes fractals confirming the larger timeframe direction.
Gold has broken an accumulation trend and is now looking for the liquidity from above to test the support at lower levels. We'll look back later and see which levels were taken and where liquidity was hiding,
price just tested a 4hr trend so price is in between the 1hr timeframe support ladder and daily resistance. If price can hold the 1hr timeframe, it has a chance to regain the daily trend or at least back test it.
GOLD LONG 1hr setup
### 🧠 **Market Context & Liquidity**
- Gold took out some sellside liquidty
- We’re watching for whether buyers hold above the daily open or if we see a pullback into support.
- Key levels to watch:
- **Resistance:** 4,128 – 4,130 (recent high)
- **Support:** 4,107 – 4,112 (consolidation low & potential buy zone)
---
### 🐊 **Bill Williams Alligator Signal**
- The **Alligator** is awake and aligned — jaws above teeth above lips — indicating a **trending market**.
- Price is trading **above the Alligator**, supporting a **bullish bias**.
- Pullbacks into the Alligator (lips/teeth) are potential entries if structure holds.
---
### 🎯 **Gold (GC1!) Trade Plan – Long Setup**
- **Entry Zone:** 4,110 – 4,128 (support + Alligator confluence)
- **Stop Loss:** Below 4,057
- **TP1:** 4,128
- **TP2:** 4,200 4hr fvg (sibi)
---
### ✅ **Confirmation Needed:**
- Bullish reaction off support with volume.
- No loss of 4,107 level.
- Alligator continues pointing upward.
---
**Bottom Line:**
Gold is in a bullish structure above the Alligator.
Look for longs into support with a tight stop.
Trade the pullback — not the breakout.
OOO GOLD IS THAT A DOUBLE TOP?I feel like I see a double top formed on the daily! The real test will come with the fib pull back in the 4249-4255 price range but only price will show us but I think we are seeing a key area for gold and If I had to choose I would say we may be heading for a minor pullback to let off some steam and also take some par profits!
Let me know yall thoughts tho and what do you think! GD luck tomorrow, I cant wait for the NY session.
GOLD (XAU/USD) Game Plan GOLD (XAU/USD) Game Plan
📊 Market Sentiment
Market sentiment for GOLD remains extremely bullish, driven primarily by central bank accumulation.
Since 2023, global central banks — led by China — have been buying gold aggressively, creating a long-term demand base.
With the FED preparing to initiate QE while inflation remains elevated, risk assets like GOLD are expected to outperform as USD (DXY) weakens.
This macro setup builds a powerful bullish narrative that continues to favor long exposure on gold.
📈 Technical Analysis
GOLD has rallied for nine consecutive weeks since mid-August, reaching overbought RSI levels.
Currently, price is showing signs of retracement and consolidation, suggesting an accumulation phase may form before the next impulsive move.
The Weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG) around $4010, just below the HTF bullish trendline, acts as a critical support area where a potential deviation and bounce may occur.
📌 Game Plan
I expect GOLD to retrace toward the HTF trendline and Weekly FVG ($4017).
A deviation and bounce from this zone could trigger a new bullish leg.
However, I anticipate 1–2 weeks of accumulation before continuation.
💬 Like, follow, and comment if this breakdown supports your trading! More setups and market insights coming soon — stay connected!
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always DYOR before making any financial decisions.
Gold 1hr levels onlyUpdated levels for today
BS & FS levels are expected support when dashed lines, tested when dotted and resistance when solid lines.
The inverse is true for the Inv. BS Inv. FS levels, they are resistance as dashed lines, tested as dotted and support as solid lines.
Monthly timeframe is color pink
weekly grey
daily is red
4hr is orange
1hr is yellow
15min is blue
5min is green if they are shown.
strength favors the higher timeframe.
2x dotted levels are origin levels where trends have or will originate. When trends break, price will target the origin of the trend. its math, when the trend breaks, the vertex breaks too so the higher timeframe level/trend that breaks, the more volatility there could be as strength in the orders flow in to fuel the move.
GOLD POSTING SELL TD COMBO 13On October 2, a NINE setup was completed. The setup started on September 22.
TDST is at 3705.8 (Friday September 19, close)
TD COMBO day 13 was completed on Monday October 20 at the close 4359.4
A overbought are are is thus established
The support of the structure TDST is at 3705.8
Can Gold Head Lower?This is the price action I’ll be watching on Gold early next week. Considering the strong bullish momentum we’ve seen in recent weeks, this setup carries higher-than-usual risk, but also offers a clean technical structure and favorable R:R if confirmed.
Last week, comments from President Trump regarding potential 100% tariffs on Chinese imports briefly pressured safe-haven assets. He acknowledged that such tariffs would be unsustainable long term, triggering a late-week pullback in Gold and Silver as risk appetite improved slightly.
However, even if Gold resumes its upward trajectory, it’s important to remember: we trade probabilities, not certainties. This scenario presents a solid probability for short-term downside continuation. This model is supported by both technical exhaustion and shifting short-term fundamentals that could provide the momentum needed for a retracement.
Is There an End to Gold’s Price Surge?The price of gold has already reached $4,300 per ounce. As we have repeatedly mentioned in our analyses, once gold starts moving upward, there’s no stopping it — and this prediction is now being confirmed.
Since mid-August 2025, gold has gained nearly $1,000 per ounce in just two months. Few could have imagined such a move, yet it was entirely foreseeable given today’s global conditions.
The world remains deeply unstable — with the shift toward digital currencies, ongoing wars, and soaring national debts that push governments to borrow endlessly. These factors drive investors and ordinary people alike to seek safety in gold and real estate.
The momentum behind gold is unlikely to end in the coming months. As we’ve projected before, the price trend remains strongly bullish.
At World-Signals, we expect a minor correction just before the $5,000 level, likely a pullback of $400–$500, followed by a continuation of the uptrend throughout 2026.
It’s not impossible that those holding just a few gold bars by 2026 could find themselves millionaires.
Gold at Risk of Pullback as Rising Wedge Pattern Emerges!Gold Technical Update (15-Min Timeframe)
Gold is forming a Rising Wedge pattern.
Resistance zone: 128600 – 128800.
If the resistance zone holds, selling pressure may increase.
The pattern indicates a potential downside move if price breaks below the lower trendline.
Traders should watch for a breakdown confirmation before taking any fresh positions.
GC/GOLD bull rally setupHigh potential: looking for a 60 SMA support (~3200) in 2 weeks and then continue the bull rally (green path)
Medium potential: looking for a 20 weekly SMA support (~3140) in 1 month and then continue the bull rally (cyan path)
Low potential: directly break out next week (red path), but indicators do not quite support this case, so it may need some "external news"
Gold Futures: Approaching Key Resistance with Bearish Rising WedGold futures are testing strong resistance near 4,190 on the 15-minute chart, forming a rising wedge pattern—a classic bearish reversal signal. Watch for a potential breakdown below wedge support that could trigger a sharp decline toward 4,110. Momentum indicators show weakening bullish strength, suggesting sellers may soon take control. Traders should monitor this critical zone for confirmation of trend reversal or a breakout continuation.
Gold MCX Future - Intraday Analysis - 15th Oct., 25$MCX:GOLD — Chart Pathik Insights
Key Gold levels are delivered daily to sharpen your prep, enable disciplined plans, and provide unbiased navigational structure for volatile sessions.
Gold is currently trading at 126,324, pressing just above the neutral zone (126,256) after a constructive move off session lows and consolidation in the mid-range.
Bearish Outlook
Shorts remain valid below 125,269, especially if the price loses grip at key support levels.
Downside Levels to Watch:
124,595: First target for short covering or profit-taking.
123,569: Further extension level if the move strengthens downwards.
Risk Control: Shorts work best with confirmation below 125,008; cover if price sharply recovers above 125,587.
Bullish Outlook
Fresh long trades can be considered above 125,904, with confidence growing above 126,165 and a strong close past 126,324.
Upside Levels to Watch:
127,917: First mapped profit or booking area.
128,943: High extension if the drive up is sustained.
Risk Control: Longs can be guarded near 125,587 or 125,269, with adjustment for volatility and confirmation.
Neutral Range Logic
126,256 is the immediate decision-band — persistent range-trading here suggests patience. Serious momentum will reveal itself only with clean moves beyond this mid-zone.
Levels arrive nightly for focused, structure-driven gold traders and learners.
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