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SET50 Index Futures

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Analysis on S50 futures: bias downward if cannot break 842Dear all after the previous post, i tried to guess but it went up a little too high. but today, its about reading the price structure. currently the price is going toward 831*** if it can hold, then cover some, if cannot hold, next target is 821*** if 821 cannot hold, 816 is the final target that is the plan for today, good luck to you all. dont forget money management and trade at your own risk. trading is risky, everyone should make their own decision.
TFEX:S501!Short
by QuanTechTraderPP
When Wave 3 Extends to 3.618×✅ What It Means • Wave 3 has extended to 3.618× the length of Wave 1, which is a very strong impulsive wave. • This often indicates high momentum and strong underlying trend (usually confirmed with high volume). • It’s a classic sign of an extended wave structure — common in high-volatility, trend-driven markets. ⸻ 🔄 Wave 4 Retracement Behavior In such cases, Wave 4 tends to be shallow, both in price and time. Here’s what we know: 🔍 Typical Wave 4 Retracement When Wave 3 = 3.618 × Wave 1: Type Typical Behavior Depth (Fibonacci) 0.236 to 0.382 of Wave 3 Time Often longer than Wave 2 Form Often sideways: triangle, flat Probability of Deep Retrace Low (< 25%) So when Wave 3 is extended, Wave 4 usually does not retrace deeply. 📊 Historical/Educated Probability Estimate Event Probability Wave 3 extends to 3.618× Wave 1 ~10–15% of impulsive wave cases Wave 4 retraces shallowly (0.236–0.382) ~70–80% in extended Wave 3 Wave 4 retraces deeply (>0.5) ~10–15% (rare, usually corrective failure) So: 🧠 If Wave 3 is extended (3.618×), there is ~70–80% chance that Wave 4 will be shallow and not violate Wave 1 top. 📌 Summary • ✅ Wave 3 extended to 3.618× implies strong trend • ✅ Wave 4 likely shallow (0.236–0.382 retrace) • ❌ Deep retrace into Wave 1 territory is unlikely unless structure is failing
TFEX:S50U2025
by akaake
1