GC topping near 3000Gold is on its last leg of an Elliot impulse wave. The top looks to be 3k using a fib retracement strategy. This aligns with the previous cup, handle, breakout to 2x above the handle from the 1980 to 2012 chart.
TGD1! trade ideas
Leap Ahead with a Bearish Divergence on Gold FuturesThe Leap Trading Competition: A Chance to Trade Gold Futures
TradingView’s "The Leap" Trading Competition is an opportunity for traders to test their futures trading skills. Participants can trade select CME Group futures contracts, including Gold Futures (GC) and Micro Gold Futures (MGC).
Register and participate here: TradingView Competition Registration .
This article presents a structured short trade setup based on a bearish divergence identified using the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and key pivot point levels for confirmation. The trade plan focuses on waiting for price to break below the pivot point at 2866.8 before executing the trade, with clear targets and risk management.
Identifying the Trade Setup
Bearish divergence occurs when price makes higher highs while an indicator, such as CCI, makes lower highs. This signals weakening momentum and a potential reversal. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) measures price deviations from its average and helps traders identify overbought or oversold conditions.
Pivot points are calculated from previous price action and serve as key support and resistance levels. The pivot at 2866.8 is the reference level in this setup. A breakdown below this level may suggest further downside momentum, increasing the probability of a successful short trade.
The trade plan combines CCI divergence with pivot point confirmation. While divergence signals a potential shift, entry is only considered if price trades below 2866.8. This approach reduces false signals and improves trade accuracy. The first target is set at 2823.0, aligning with an intermediate support level (S1), while the final target is near S2 at 2776.2, just above a UFO support zone.
Trade Plan and Risk Management
The short trade is triggered only if price trades below 2866.8. The stop loss is placed above the entry at a level ensuring at least a 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio.
Profit targets are structured to lock in gains progressively:
The first exit is at 2823.0, where partial profits can be taken.
The final exit is near 2776.2, positioned just above a UFO support level.
Stop placement may vary based on the trader’s preferred risk-reward ratio. Position sizing should be adjusted according to account size and market volatility.
Contract Specifications and Margin Requirements
Gold Futures (GC) details:
Full contract specs: GC Contract Specifications – CME Group
Contract size: 100 troy ounces
Tick size: 0.10 per ounce ($10 per tick)
Margin requirements depend on broker conditions and market volatility. Currently around $12,500 per contract.
Micro Gold Futures (MGC) details:
Full contract specs: MGC Contract Specifications – CME Group
Contract size: 10 troy ounces (1/10th of GC)
Tick size: 0.10 per ounce ($1 per tick)
Lower margin requirements provide access to smaller traders. Currently around $1,250 per contract.
Leverage impacts both potential gains and losses. Traders should consider market conditions and margin requirements when adjusting position sizes.
Execution and Market Conditions
Before executing the trade, price must break below 2866.8. Additional confirmation can be sought through volume trends and price action signals.
If price does not break the pivot, the short setup is invalid. If price consolidates, traders should reassess momentum before committing to the trade.
Conclusion
Bearish CCI divergence signals potential market weakness, but confirmation from the pivot breakdown is key before executing a short trade. A structured approach with well-defined targets and risk management increases the probability of success.
For traders in The Leap Trading Competition, this setup highlights the importance of discipline, confirmation, and scaling out of trades to manage risk effectively.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
GOLD Setting up for a nice run!Now that we are in a new week and new month it looks like its setting up for a big move. Just have to wait for the killzones for a solid entry. I just need to see it fill in some gaps. Waiting for the Asian range but it looks like it might be bearish until the London session. For London we could see a sweep and then aggressive push to go bullish. We just have to wait and see.
Gold Unstoppable to get to 3000, but we might see a pullbackOn Gold futures I clearly see this going for new historical highs, but since everyone is joining the ride a pullback is around the corner.
Liquidity has just been swept on the 4Hr, so this would be a perfect scenario to squeeze the longs all the way down to a bullish order block/demand zone at 2853,2
EWTSU GOLD future intermediate (4)
Elliott Wave Trade Setup
GOLD future intermediate (4)
intermediate (4) running
B of expanded flat ABC
prices reached target of B at 2900 area - should reverse in wave C
C target beyond the end of wave A (2543 area)
alternative
intermediate (4) ended in a running zigzag ABC (C low 2597)
minor 1 of intermediate (5) developping
Weekly Forex Forecast: GOLD & SILVER Are Bullish! BUY Them!This forecast is for the week of Feb 10-14th.
Gold and Silver are both bullish, with Gold being the stronger of the two. I am not interested in selling either until I see a bearish BOS, as the swing structure is bullish, and the trend is up. Wait until the fractal structure is aligned with the overall market structure, which would make for higher probability buys to follow the trend.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
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I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
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The 3rd Major Pivot in Gold’s Uptrend - Since Trade War in 2018We just witnessed the start of another pivot in gold when Trump won the U.S. presidential election in November 2024. My gold trading strategy has always focused on buying dips while keeping any short-selling opportunities short-term.
The chart above clearly illustrates three major V-shaped formations in gold. After each tariff or trade war, a V-shaped pattern formed in the same month the policy was initiated, followed by a subsequent uptrend.
Recently, I published a video analyzing other significant tariffs since the U.S.-China trade war began in 2018. We observed a consistent pattern: after each tariff or trade war, the same month of policy initiation saw the formation of a V-shaped trough, followed by an uptrend.
This time, the V-shaped trough occurred during the U.S. presidential election month. The right side of this V-shape was completed with the announcement of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, signaling the expansion of the trade war beyond China.
The consequence of trade wars is inflation, and gold has historically served as a leading indicator of this trend.
If the trade war persists and intensifies, a continued uptrend in gold seems inevitable. Analyzing the long-term monthly chart using my parallel channel approach, we observed gold prices encountering resistance around $2,600 in September 2024 and beyond. However, by the close of January, the price action provided a clear confirmation of the ongoing gold uptrend. Gold firmly closed above $2,600, reaching $2,835 for COMEX Micro Gold Futures.
On the 3-hour chart, I have provided another set of parallel channels as a guide to track support and resistance levels as gold trends further.
As gold prices continue to climb, their notional value can become quite large for retail traders. COMEX Micro Gold Futures, being 1/10th the size of the regular gold contract, is a better option for me when the next buying opportunity arises. Recently, CME launched a new contract—a pocket-sized one-ounce gold contract. One key to successful trading is selecting the right contract size for oneself, which is crucial for effective risk management.
Once again, my strategy for gold remains the same: focus on buying dips while keeping any short-selling opportunities short-term.
Please see the following disclaimer and information that you may find useful:
Gold Contracts:
Gold Futures & Options
Ticker: GC
Minimum fluctuation:
0.10 per troy ounce = $10.00
Micro Gold Futures & Options
Ticker: MGC
Minimum fluctuation:
0.10 er troy ounce = $1.00
1Ounce Gold Futures
Ticker: 1OZ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 per troy ounce = $0.25
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• My mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Gold Update: $3,000 Is Not the Final DestinationGold futures broke above minor consolidation, so the map should be updated.
Wave 3 becomes extended (blue small waves) and it is looking to test the trendline resistance near magic $3,000 level.
But that's not all as we didn't see wave 4 yet.
It should be complex to alternate wave 2, which was simple.
Wave 4 could hit the $2,500-2,550 area to complete correction.
We can measure it after wave 3 will be completed.
And finally, wave 5 is usually extended in commodities.
It could be huge, wave 3 already travelled over $1,000,
imagine where wave 5 could rocket then.
It will depend on how deep wave 4 would retrace first.
Stay tuned, share your thoughts below, lucky trades to all of you!
Gold is Holding the the bullish Pressure! Price moved bullish yesterday then stalled during NY session and ended up pulling back for the rest of the day. As we come into Asian session for a new day the question is will they retrace to give a low entry or just run and gun it out the gate? We just have to be patient and wait for it.
