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TGM1! trade ideas

Silver To The Mooooon!!Several factors have come together to make silver especially attractive. Expectations of Fed Rate Cuts / Lower Real Yields Markets are increasingly pricing in Federal Reserve rate cuts, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding non‐yielding assets like silver. Real yields (yields adjusted for inflation) have been weak or falling, making silver more appealing. Weak U.S. Dollar When the USD weakens, commodities priced in dollars become cheaper for holders of other currencies, boosting demand. Safe-Haven / Inflation Hedge Demand Geopolitical risks, economic uncertainty, and fears of inflation make precious metals attractive. Silver benefits both as an industrial metal and a hedge to some degree. The gold-to-silver ratio is unusually high, which many see as signalling that silver is “cheap” relative to gold, suggesting more upside potential.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by LegendSince
MGCZ2025 WEEK 39 SEPT 21STLooking for MON, TUE, WED to be the low of the week, trading into or slightly below 3H BISI. Price should run energetically to break $3744. Look for buying opportunities once price has broken below $3715. Note that price can run lower into the BOB (Bullish OB) before turning around. IF- price closes below the 3H OB at $3706. Hold to see if price turn in the lower 3H SIBI instead. You could be wrong in your analysis and price may be trying to run lower. NOTE we are entering MC-NM. This is typically a retracement which should be to the up side given market structure. NOTE: you are looking to hold for a 20 point run based on the fib. The best BUYs will be formed below $3723 CALENDAR EVENT MON - 12PM - FOMC SPEAKER TUES - 9:45AM - PMI (HIGH) - 12:35AM - POWELL SPEAKS (HIGH) WED - 10AM - NEW HOMES SALES THUR - 8:30AM - FINAL GDP (HIGH) - 10AM - EXISTING HOME SALES FRIDAY - 8:30AM - CORE PCE INDEX (HIGH) Final Note - remember to keep track of midnight/8:30 opening prices. Always refer back to the 1H and 3H to confirm what side of the market you should be on. - Alway look to buy in a discount range and sell in a premium range. Risk- Only risk 150- 200 per trade on initial entry. you can add lots once you confirm trade is good. Refer back to higher TF before adding lots. Max two trades per session.
COMEX_MINI:MGCZ2025Long
by LUNAR_TRADER_
Gold Bears Trapped at POC - Bulls Load for $3,850 BreakoutThe Market Participant Battle: Bears attempted to push Gold below the Value Area at point 2 but were decisively trapped and beaten by major institutional buyers. The rejection at the POC (Point of Control) with strong bullish divergences across multiple momentum indicators signals that bulls have regained control. Price is expected to return to test the $3,850 resistance after this bear trap consolidation, with institutional buyers defending the value area high at $3,720. Confluences: Confluence 1: Value Area Rejection & POC Defense The chart shows a textbook rejection at the Value Area High (point 2), with price piercing below but immediately recovering above both the POC and VAH. This is a classic bear trap pattern where aggressive sellers were absorbed by institutional buyers. The anchored VWAP from point 1 shows the 1st standard deviation aligning perfectly with the VAH, creating a powerful confluence of support that trapped late bears and sparked the reversal. Confluence 2: Quad Bullish Divergence All four momentum indicators (OBV, RSI, MFI, CDV) made higher lows while price made a lower low at point 2. This is an extremely rare quad divergence setup that historically precedes powerful moves higher. The OBV shows accumulation never stopped, RSI held oversold bounces, MFI indicates money never left, and CDV confirms institutional buying throughout the dip. Confluence 3: FOMC Rate Cut Catalyst The Fed just cut rates by 25bps today (September 17) with Governor Miran dissenting for larger cuts. The dot plot suggests two more cuts coming in 2025. Gold historically performs strongly during rate cutting cycles, with average gains of 14% in the year following initial cuts when markets are near highs. Web Research Findings: - Technical Analysis: Gold holding above $3,670 with immediate resistance at $3,700-3,720, major resistance at $3,850 - Recent News/Earnings: Fed cut rates 25bps today, markets pricing 93% chance of continued cuts through year-end - Analyst Sentiment: Goldman Sachs targets $3,700+ for 2025, World Gold Council sees 0-5% upside in H2 - Data Releases & Economic Calendar: CPI at 2.9% (above 2% target), unemployment rising, suggesting stagflationary environment - Interest Rate Impact: Real rates turning negative as inflation exceeds rate cuts - historically bullish for gold Layman's Summary: The Fed just started cutting interest rates today while inflation is still high (2.9%), creating the perfect storm for gold. When the Fed cuts rates but inflation stays elevated, gold becomes the go-to asset because cash loses value. Big banks are already positioned for this - central banks bought record amounts of gold in 2025. The technical setup shows major buyers stepped in exactly where they should (at the value area), creating a bear trap that should spring gold higher toward $3,850. Machine Derived Information: - Image 1: Shows numbered reference points 1-4 with clear bear trap at point 2, target at $3,856 - Significance: Classic V-reversal at value area with institutional footprints - AGREES ✔ - Image 2: Displays quad divergence across OBV/RSI/MFI/CDV indicators - Significance: Extremely bullish momentum divergence rarely seen, confirms accumulation - AGREES ✔ Actionable Machine Summary: The AI analysis confirms a textbook bear trap setup at a critical technical level (Value Area/POC) combined with an ultra-rare quad divergence across all momentum indicators. The timing with today's FOMC rate cut creates a fundamental catalyst to trigger the technical spring-load. Stop placement is clear below point 2 at $3,706, with initial target at VAH retest ($3,720) before continuation to $3,850+. Conclusion: Trade Prediction: SUCCESS Confidence: High This setup combines the perfect storm of technical and fundamental factors. Bears were trapped attempting to break value area support just as the Fed initiated its rate cutting cycle. The quad divergence is exceptionally rare and historically precedes 5-10% moves. With inflation still elevated at 2.9% and rates being cut, gold's traditional role as an inflation hedge is activated. Risk/Reward is excellent with tight stop below $3,706 and targets at $3,850+, offering 4:1 R/R.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by jacesabr_real
Gold Ready To Fold?Gold (GC1!) — 1.414 Tag + Max Gartley PRZ: Is This the High? I’m mapping a short off a full confluence cluster at the highs. Why I’m short here (stacked signals) 3-Month 1.414 extension hit: price is sitting right at ~3,722 (1.414 on the 3M chart). That’s classic terminal PRZ behavior. Daily “Max Gartley” complete: harmonic PRZ lands 3,710–3,735; price tagged/hovered there. Volume/CVD divergence across TFs: daily, weekly, monthly show higher price on weaker buy volume / softer positive delta → exhaustion. Weekly momentum divergence: MACD lower high vs price higher high; histogram rolling off = bearish momentum divergence. Band/structure context: riding the upper Bollinger with long upper wicks into red channel resistance; rising-wedge/parallel rail touch. Measured moves: last leg ≈ prior leg; AB=CD ≈ 1:1 completes ~3,720–3,735, inside the PRZ. Round-number + prior shelf: 3,700 is a heavy pivot; failure to extend above 3,739–3,742 on strong delta = absorption at the top. Extra confirmations I’m watching live CVD/Delta: push above 3,735 without new CVD highs = add to short. Spread/financing: widening bid–ask / negative basis into spikes = top-y behavior. Heikin-Ashi: upper shadows / color flip on daily/weekly strengthen the reversal case. Bottom line: This is a short right now into 3,716–3,736 with risk 3,751. The confluence—3M 1.414, daily Max Gartley, multi-TF volume divergence, weekly MACD div, and channel resistance—points to a swing lower toward 3,700 → 3,673 → 3,641, with room to 3,566/3,551 if momentum cracks.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Ki11a_B
New Highs For Gold Or Perfect Opportunity for Reversal Gold (GC1!) Is Poised to set New Highs, as We've seen Gold (GC1) reach its highest Point in history and shows no intentions of Slowing Down. Gold May Start off Strong with high liquidity This Monday, This could be the lowest we get to see gold Prices For a long time and late investor may want to get in before we take off. all I know is this will be a fierce battle as 'Bears' may use this opportunity to enter their positions the 'Bulls' will have to fight! if they really want it.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by MAN_OTC
Gold (XAU/USD) Forex SignalGold (XAU/USD) has been showing strong bullish momentum recently, but the latest Zig Zag pattern and RSI (Relative Strength Index) suggest a potential correction in the short term. Let’s analyze and provide a clear forex trading signal. Market Overview | Pair | Gold (XAU/USD) | | -------------- | ------------------------------- | | Current Price | \$3,680.7 | | Trend | Bullish with minor pullback | | Key Indicators | Zig Zag (5,10), RSI (14, close) | | Volatility | High | | Market Session | US Session | Technical Analysis Zig Zag Indicator: The last leg shows a peak around **\$3,679.3** followed by a small correction, signaling possible short-term weakness. RSI (14): Currently near the **55 level**, coming down from overbought territory (>70). This indicates the bullish rally may be slowing, and sellers could test the downside. Support Levels: \$3,650 – \$3,620 Resistance Levels: \$3,720 – \$3,750 Gold Trading Signal (September 14, 2025) | Signal Type | Sell (Short-term) | | ------------- | --------------------- | | Entry Zone | \$3,680 – \$3,690 | | Stop Loss | \$3,720 | | Take Profit 1 | \$3,650 | | Take Profit 2 | \$3,620 | Analysis: Since RSI has cooled off from overbought levels and Zig Zag shows a minor top formation, a short-term selling opportunity is expected. However, the long-term trend remains bullish, so aggressive traders may wait for dips to re-enter long positions. Alternate Scenario If gold breaks above \$3,720, the bearish setup becomes invalid, and bulls may drive the price toward \$3,750 – \$3,800. FAQs on Gold Forex Signals Q1: Is gold still a good buy in September 2025? Yes, gold remains in a long-term uptrend, but short-term pullbacks are expected. Q2: What is the best strategy for XAU/USD now? Swing traders can short near resistance with tight SL, while long-term investors can buy on dips. Q3: Which indicators are most useful for gold trading? RSI, Zig Zag, Moving Averages, and Fibonacci retracements work well with gold volatility. Conclusion Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating after a strong bullish move. Short-term traders can look for sell opportunities near \$3,680 with targets at \$3,650 – \$3,620, while long-term traders should stay bullish and buy dips.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by forexinworld
MCX GOLD;Trade Set up and TargetsKey levels Immediate support (first line): ₹108,550 Lower support zone: ₹108,000 — if price closes below this, bearish pressure increases. Near-term resistance zone: ₹109,440 — watch for rejections here. Upper resistance / new-high trigger: ₹110,000 — daily close above this signals fresh bullish extension. Psychological round: ₹111,000 (next larger objective if momentum continues) (These are the horizontal lines on the chart and the levels I used to build targets.) Technical read : RSI(14) in my chart is in neutral-to-mildly-overbought area — watch for divergence or a close below 50 for weakening momentum. Trade setups & targets Bullish (momentum continuation) Setup: Daily close above ₹110,000 (with follow-through volume / higher open next day). Entry: on a clean daily close above 110,000 or a pullback to 109,400–109,600 that holds. Targets: 1) ₹111,000 (first), 2) ₹112,400–₹113,000 (secondary extension). Stop: below ₹108,900 (or tight intraday protective stop if entering on breakout). Range / neutral (failure at resistance) If price is rejected in the 109,400–110,000 zone: consider short with targets 108,550 then 108,000. Stop: above 110,200 on a rejection scalp. Bearish (momentum shift) Trigger: daily close below ₹108,000 (sustained). Short targets: 107,000 then 105,500. Stop: above 108,800 (or recent EMA20). Intraday scalp idea Look for support/resistance confluence near 108,550 (buy if strong bounce and intraday momentum) or a quick rejection around 109,440–110,000 for a 200–500 point scalp, with tight stops. Risk management & rules (short) Risk no more than 1–2% of trading capital per trade. Prefer daily closes for swing decisions; intraday trades need tighter stops. Watch macro cues — US rates, USDINR and global gold (COMEX) often influence MCX moves.(For educational purpose only)
MCX:GOLD1!Long
by CSB68
The 2-Sigma Rejection: Gold's Multi-Indicator Reversal Blueprint# The 2-Sigma Rejection: Gold's Multi-Indicator Reversal Blueprint ## Market Structure Evolution (Points 1→4) Price action has completed a measured retracement to proven institutional buying zones, establishing Point 4 as a critical inflection level where smart money historically accumulates positions. This calculated pullback to tested support creates the foundation for a high-probability reversal setup. ## The Confluence Matrix: Four Pillars of Confirmation ### **Momentum Divergence Dual Signal** - **RSI Bullish Divergence**: While price printed a lower low at Point 4, the Relative Strength Index formed a higher low, revealing underlying strength masked by price action - **MFI Confirmation**: Money Flow Index mirrors the RSI divergence, indicating that capital flows are diverging positively from price - a signature of accumulation during apparent weakness ### **Bollinger Band Extremity Alignment** - **Price at Lower Band**: Point 4 precisely tags the lower Bollinger Band, marking a statistically significant oversold extreme - **OBV Breaking Below Its Lower Band**: A rare occurrence where On-Balance Volume pierces below its own Bollinger Band lower boundary - historically a powerful mean reversion signal that suggests panic selling into strong hands ### **The 2-Standard Deviation Rejection** Using Point 1 as the VWAP anchor creates a statistically robust framework: - Point 4 achieves a perfect touch and rejection from the 2nd standard deviation below VWAP - This represents a 95% statistical extreme, where price typically finds aggressive buyers - The rejection from this level confirms institutional algorithms are defending this mathematically significant zone ## Technical Synthesis This setup presents a textbook convergence of statistical extremes and momentum divergences. The simultaneous occurrence of: - Dual momentum divergences (RSI + MFI) - Dual Bollinger Band extremes (Price + OBV) - 2-sigma VWAP deviation test Creates a rare "perfect storm" reversal setup where multiple independent indicators reach oversold extremes simultaneously. ## Probability Assessment When price touches the lower Bollinger Band while OBV breaks below its own band, historical data suggests a >70% probability of mean reversion within 5-10 bars. Combined with the momentum divergences and VWAP deviation test, this creates an asymmetric risk-reward scenario favoring long positions. ## Risk Management Framework - **Stop Loss**: Below Point 4 with buffer for volatility - **Initial Target**: VWAP mean reversion (1st standard deviation) - **Extended Target**: Upper Bollinger Band or Point 3 resistance - **Invalidation**: Sustained break below 2nd VWAP deviation would negate the setup ## Key Takeaway The convergence of statistical extremes across multiple non-correlated indicators at Point 4 creates a institutional-grade reversal setup. The 2-sigma VWAP rejection, combined with rare OBV Bollinger Band penetration and dual momentum divergences, presents a compelling mean reversion opportunity with clearly defined risk parameters.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by jacesabr_real
GOLD | Buy & Sell Setup | 09 Sep 2025 – 10:32 EDTGOLD | Buy & Sell Setup | 09 Sep 2025 – 10:32 EDT Buy Zone: 3709 – 3682 Scenario 1 : Buy Entry: 3700 Stop Loss: 3685 Targets: TP1 → 3745   (1:3) Analysis: From Buy Zone (3709 – 3682) creates possibilities for a buy move. Scenario 2 : Sell Entry: 3685 Stop Loss: 3700 Targets: TP1 → 3670 TP2 → 3621 TP2 → 3604 Analysis: Below Buy Zone (3709 – 3682) creates possibilities for a sell move. Stay alert on updates here. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This idea is shared for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please do your own analysis before making trading decisions.
COMEX:GC1!
by TrendReset