Palladium: Watching for the Moment to ShortPalladium Futures have been the second strongest performing future in 2017 so far . Yet my analysis is providing me several reasons to begin watching closely for an opportunity to short.
I am still a neophyte in Elliott Wave analysis but it seems very possible that we are nearing the end of an three wave correction which began January 2016. In this scenario Wave (C) has recently reached 1.618 * Wave (A), and is taking the form of what seems to be an ending diagonal triangle which looks close to completion.
Palladium has retraced and is currently trading at the .786 of the drop from the All-Time High which began in 2014
Two bearish patterns -- shark and bat -- are close to their completion points. A capitulation over the top of the ending diagonal triangle which is apparently typical of the pattern would likely drive the price to these levels.
There is bearish divergence in the weekly RSI and AO
It is important to wait for the confirmation of this analysis before going short, especially if there may be one more push up. Speculators are currently 72% long and the higher this number the better I will feel going against them (although using the COT is something I am still learning about as well!). I will continue analysis on the daily time frame and perhaps the 4 hour to try and get a more precise entry.
If you have any comments or feedback on this idea or your own analysis of Palladium please share!
