nick.holland78

PRO
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About me Primary analyze markets using Elliott Wave principle, augmented with Fibonacci relationships to identify targets for retracements and projected extensions. Learn the technique, as I did, from Avi Gilburt on his site.
Joined Alabama
Markets Allocation
67 % stocks 3 % commodities 1 % indices 29 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
GDX 10% | 50 SPX 8% | 41 UNG 8% | 40 XAGUSD 7% | 35
nick.holland78 nick.holland78 PRO EFA, 240,
EFA: EFA - 4hr
7 1 2
EFA, 240
EFA - 4hr

I'm going flat today. Targets reached with confirming negative divergence. Can it leak higher? Sure, a bit. I'm primarily expecting consolidation into the mid-60s with support between 76.4% and 100% fib extensions shown in green. See earlier ideas linked below.

nick.holland78 nick.holland78 PRO IWM, 240,
IWM: IWM - 4hr
36 0 1
IWM, 240
IWM - 4hr

I'm moving to the sidelines today. Targets achieved for the 3rd wave. Expecting frustrating consolidation in wave 4 before the climb resumes. See prior analysis linked below.

nick.holland78 nick.holland78 PRO SPX500, 240, Long ,
SPX500: SPX500 - 4hr
96 1 2
SPX500, 240 Long
SPX500 - 4hr

I'm expecting some cooling / correction into the year's end with wave 4 of (5). As always, chart notations are not meant to predict timing.

nick.holland78 nick.holland78 PRO GDX, 120, Long ,
GDX: GDX - 2hr
205 8 4
GDX, 120 Long
GDX - 2hr

Triangles are very uncommon in 2nd waves. I've taken another look at miners this awkward 2nd wave (white count) doesn't quite look right to me. Could it prove itself? Sure. However, targets for this current rise converge with fibs for a b-wave retrace (upward retrace), so I've drawn a red A-B-C alternative. This impulsive rise, should it continue as depicted, ...

nick.holland78 nick.holland78 PRO EFA, 240, Long ,
EFA: EFA - 4h
22 0 3
EFA, 240 Long
EFA - 4h

As long as support holds EFA should extend higher in wave 3. As much as 8-12% higher from here.

nick.holland78 nick.holland78 PRO SPY, 120, Long ,
SPY: SPY - 2hr
39 1 4
SPY, 120 Long
SPY - 2hr

Green and yellow minute counts are variations within wave 3. The minimum target for wave (v) of green circle-iii is reached. Possible wave circle-iv is starting under this green count. The yellow count is presumably farther along, although with the lower targets indicated. I'm still long and holding.

nick.holland78 nick.holland78 PRO IWM, 240, Long ,
IWM: IWM - 4hr
26 2 4
IWM, 240 Long
IWM - 4hr

Apologies if this is hard to read. Smaller timeframes should make it clearer. I suspect an ending diagonal to finish off circle-v of 3. Support annotated. I'm long and holding at the moment. I've linked an older Daily idea for context.

nick.holland78 nick.holland78 PRO XAUUSD, 240, Long ,
XAUUSD: XAUUSD - 4hr
170 0 11
XAUUSD, 240 Long
XAUUSD - 4hr

Gold still looks to be in a probable uptrend, consistent with my published idea on GDX.

nick.holland78 nick.holland78 PRO GDX, D, Long ,
GDX: GDX - Daily
118 0 3
GDX, D Long
GDX - Daily

Bigger picture (to keep me accountable). See trade ideas on linked idea.

nick.holland78 nick.holland78 PRO GDX, 120, Long ,
GDX: GDX - 2hr
124 9 7
GDX, 120 Long
GDX - 2hr

Looking for a turn over the next few days setting up the heart of iii of wave 1 in green. This is my primary expectation. The smaller white 1-2 is an outside alternative, but feasible. The white count has miners farther along in the count, but targets for waves 3-4-5 would be lower than those in the green count.

nick.holland78 nick.holland78 PRO GDX, 240, Long ,
GDX: GDX - 4hr
274 11 10
GDX, 240 Long
GDX - 4hr

Setting up for the next move higher? If so, this expanded flat since the new year fooled me a bit. I knew it was a possibility but still, my hedging wasn't on target as I've been distracted with my 3rd child born just over two weeks ago... My resistance and support boxes haven't moved in at least three weeks...the big one in the 30s has been established for ...

nick.holland78 nick.holland78 PRO NG1!, D, Long ,
NG1!: NG1! - Daily
209 4 10
NG1!, D Long
NG1! - Daily

Updated for what appears to have been an expanded flat in wave 2. Regardless, I was too aggressive earlier. Been out-of-pocket with my 3rd child born just over two weeks ago. I've updated this pattern and will watch for a solid impulse in wave cir-i off this low. Hold a corrective retrace from there in cir-ii and this could finally take off in the powerful ...

nick.holland78 nick.holland78 PRO NG1!, D, Long ,
NG1!: NG1! - Daily
124 3 7
NG1!, D Long
NG1! - Daily

Presumed start to wave iii of 3 was delayed (green count busted). Alternative deeper circle i-ii in blue is now my primary and we *may* see the strongest portion of this next move up soon. If the pattern is right, then a few squiggles lower are all that remain in (c) of cir-ii of 3. Aggressive entry is in this region. Safest entry is another 5-wave move toward ...

nick.holland78 nick.holland78 PRO GDX, 120, Long ,
GDX: GDX - 2hr
104 1 5
GDX, 120 Long
GDX - 2hr

Aggressive yellow sub-division of green 1 depends on an expanded running flat, not unheard of in a bullish run. The minute green circle i-ii now has an expanded (b) wave (today's high?) which would suggest a high consolidation perhaps only near the 22s. Nothing bearish at all above 20. See also Daily idea for larger pattern projections.

nick.holland78 nick.holland78 PRO GDX, D, Long ,
GDX: GDX - Daily
223 1 6
GDX, D Long
GDX - Daily

Updated with new log-scale fib extension targets for Primary wave 1.

nick.holland78 nick.holland78 PRO XAGUSD, 60, Long ,
XAGUSD: XAGUSD - 1hr
81 0 7
XAGUSD, 60 Long
XAGUSD - 1hr

Retraces may continue to be quite shallow IF this count is on target.

nick.holland78 nick.holland78 PRO CDE, 120, Long ,
CDE: CDE - 2hr
59 2 4
CDE, 120 Long
CDE - 2hr

Monstrous +13% day. Shallow wave (2) relative to other miners, assuming its complete. A pattern like the one I've outlined for wave 1 would add confidence. Retraces may be relatively short and shallow if this is, in fact, the start of wave (3). Note structure of wave (1) off the low last year. As always, my notes aren't meant to indicate timing.

nick.holland78 nick.holland78 PRO GDXJ, 120,
GDXJ: GDXJ - 2hr
80 3 4
GDXJ, 120
GDXJ - 2hr

Some individual names have patterns suggesting this more immediately aggressive yellow pattern within minor wave 1, whereas others the white minute i-ii structure. I'd like to see the resistance region taken out over the next week or so regardless.

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