BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
120 0
Breaking down the retrace from my Big Picture Perspective.

I've added white fib extensions corresponding to the white count within wave (3), again calculated outside tradingview in LOG scale. Price targeted massive extensions within this white 1-2 count interpretation, ending at the 3.618 extension, in order achieve the larger degree target for wave (3) just above the 1.618.

I calculated the yellow fibs but chose to not clutter the chart. In this alt yellow I've allowed wave (3) to continue higher as indicated. The 200% extension of yellow 1-2 is at $38,092 which would be an immense extension of (3), nearly reaching the purple 200% extension of (1)-(2). This correction would then be wave 4 of (3).

Regardless, the ongoing correction presents as a 4th wave of some degree. The white box indicates the 23.6-38.2% retrace of wave (3) measured from start of (2), again on LOG scale. An arithmetic retrace would yield vastly different targets. This retrace box clearly overlaps the support region mentioned in my linked idea, indicated in purple. Given the height of this 3rd wave price may not venture deep into support.

I've shown wave (4) targeting lower in this retrace/support region because no clear signal has been given to indicate wave (4) - or yellow 4 if you prefer - has completed. What I mean by "signal" is that price hasn't completed an impulsive structure with price correcting mildly before impulsively breaking above the top of wave 1 of (5).

4th waves are notoriously difficult patterns to predict, having many variations, and are thus treacherous to trade. The zigzag a-b-c I've depicted in purple could well present as a shallower triangle, complex w-x-y , flat, etc. Admittedly I didn't micro measure the internal moves of this correction. Draw your own conclusions and rely on your own analysis for trading. I've simply examined sentiment, as represented by price, on daily and larger timescales for *educational* purposes.

NOT TRADING ADVICE. The 1-2, i-ii setup shown in wave (5) is not my primary expectation as the correction doesn't appear complete in either price or time, in my judgement. Trading that pattern, which I am NOT, requires a tight stop at or above the Mar 18 low around 6300.
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