nick.holland78

BTCUSD Elliott Wave - Big Picture Perspective

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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Seems everyone has a Bitcoin chart. I don't own or trade bitcoin , meaning I can be simultaneously objective and ignorant. I can, however, judge sentiment using Elliott Wave principles.

I took a look, for educational purposes, as it appeared to be following Fib Pinball so well. Sure enough, on LOG scale, price hit targets within normal expectations for a 3rd wave. These are Fibonacci extensions calculated *outside tradingview* since arithmetic extensions are dwarfed with this massive impulsive move. I started calculating wave (1) from $70 USD as the brief dump to $1 doesn't seem reflective of sentiment in my estimation. Calculated wave (2) bottoming at $162 as shown. The first purple box represents typical targets for wave 1 of (3). I've got two potential counts sub-dividing wave (3). The white count has wave (3) complete, my "primary" if you will, right on target as I'll explain shortly. The yellow alt count is a viable interpretation, which in turn points to higher extensions in wave (3). For short term traders the difference in white and yellow is academic; a matter of larger wave degree on this weekly timescale. The second purple box (between 2719-5291) represents the typical target region for 3 of (3). This box is generally also the support region for wave (4) as noted. If wave (3) gets massive extensions then support moves higher. I've linked some older educational posts explaining further. The third box is the typical wave (3) target and, since price began correcting from this target region, suggests wave (3) has likely completed.

Finally the upper box is where wave (5) targets when (3) reaches or slightly exceeds the 161.8% extension. The 238.2% extension of (1)-(2) is at ~$134k if you're interested.

So, wave (3) was a massive percentage move but, in reality, isn't surprising based on a (1)-(2), 1-2 set-up *on LOG scale*. Wave (4), a treacherous trading environment, may well not be complete.

I'll post a Daily timescale with refined details on wave (4) support.

Review some of my other posts on Fib Pinball and Elliott Wave theory if you're interested. I've got an idea explaining calculations in LOG scale somewhere, too. It's on a miner stock as I recall.
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