rwilday

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About me I'm a product strategist with a major multi-national electronics company. I've been trading stocks, futures and options for 15 years. My specialty is vol / neutral option trading and I've had some mentoring by market makers. I also spend a good time trad
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Markets Allocation
Top Mentioned Symbols
ETHXBT 26% | 6 GDX 13% | 3 ETHUSD 13% | 3 MUX 8% | 2
rwilday rwilday ETHUSD, D, Long ,
ETHUSD: LD for ETH
169 0 2
ETHUSD, D Long
LD for ETH

My counts were not as impulsive as a I thought

rwilday rwilday ETHUSD, 120, Long ,
ETHUSD: ETHUSD bull continues
126 2 2
ETHUSD, 120 Long
ETHUSD bull continues

Wow, I realized I haven't updated this in a while. I've been doing regular updates as a member of elliotwavetrader.net where I learned to trade elliot waves. Since calling the bottom....(see my previous updates which came close to predicting the price of the bottom) I am now up about 200% by trading in an out of subwaves. I missed part of the moves when I had to ...

rwilday rwilday GDX, 15, Short ,
GDX: Yesterday Invalidated- new count
25 1 0
GDX, 15 Short
Yesterday Invalidated- new count

C down in GDX. Long at 24

rwilday rwilday GDX, 15, Short ,
GDX: Invalidated last count
16 0 0
GDX, 15 Short
Invalidated last count

New C wave down

rwilday rwilday MUX, 60,
MUX: MUX wave V
36 3 2
MUX, 60
MUX wave V

Buy all pullbacks

rwilday rwilday GDX, 15,
GDX: Get long at $25
27 0 0
GDX, 15
Get long at $25

$25 looks to want to stop this baby

rwilday rwilday XIV, 60, Short ,
XIV: XIV corrective wave
66 5 0
XIV, 60 Short
XIV corrective wave

22.57 to 27 before rip your face off rally

rwilday rwilday MUX, 180, Long ,
MUX: MUX
11 0 1
MUX, 180 Long
MUX

Going to 3.5

rwilday rwilday ETHUSD, 60,
ETHUSD: Final throws
177 0 1
ETHUSD, 60
Final throws

You'll see from my previous updates that ETH has pretty much followed my primary path but I've had to make some target refinements as we go. Many times it tried to throw me off but when you get into the impulsive wave of a correction (C) things usually clear up. So, I have refined my targets based on the fibs of the (i)-(ii) of C and iii should bottom around $8.28 ...

rwilday rwilday ETHXBT, 60,
ETHXBT: Update on ETHXBT
59 0 0
ETHXBT, 60
Update on ETHXBT

ETH is taking the slow path. I stick by my original count so far, but I've had to slide my wave labels to the right and wave ii a bit as it retraced more than expected. It started to act like wave 3 of c earlier this week, so I have little doubt it will head into the target zone but it should accelerate in a c.

rwilday rwilday IBKR, 60, Long ,
IBKR: IBKR nearing wave (iii) top
13 0 0
IBKR, 60 Long
IBKR nearing wave (iii) top

I previously suggested that IBKR is slowly heading into a major top. Today it headed into the top of wave (iii). It may not be there yet, but this is one point where I start scalping against my primary position with put options. I'll scale in if we keep rising and scale out around $37

rwilday rwilday BTCUSD, M, Long ,
BTCUSD: BTC Roadmap
305 4 2
BTCUSD, M Long
BTC Roadmap

Technically, the fibs for wave 1 project BTC ultimately to $2400. The issue is that the wave 2 retrace didn't even stop at the .864 retrace. So, it may be may be this is totally wrong and we are in a bear market. However, if the price action puts in a standard structure from here on out, I'll go with it, always watching for invalidation of this roadmap. Don't say ...

rwilday rwilday XBTUSD, D, Long ,
XBTUSD: Another count?
59 0 1
XBTUSD, D Long
Another count?

Today we're getting the price action of a third wave making me doubt my a=c count in red. However, I'm still baffled by the time to get to this point which makes me question the count. So, looking at the structure, perhaps 1 of 3 is simply a leading diagonal? If so, then we'll have a violent retrace yet still before we take off. The targets for this green count ...

rwilday rwilday ETHXBT, 60, Long ,
ETHXBT: Am I wrong in my count?
62 3 0
ETHXBT, 60 Long
Am I wrong in my count?

These are the tough moments in Elliot Wave and puncuate the need to identify key support (like my blue box) and scale in trade. I already a bit long and intend to add lower but this c wave is not actiing like a c wave. C's are supposed to be the strongest impulses in the corrective moves like the 3rd wave in an impulse move. So, this should finish quickly here. ...

rwilday rwilday SCO, 60, Long ,
SCO: Mapping the move in SCO
35 0 1
SCO, 60 Long
Mapping the move in SCO

Here I am just setting my fibs in place for he move in SCO. My actual target is over $200. However, the fibs right now only get us this far. Until we see how 3rd waves extend, we don't have the full set of targets.

rwilday rwilday MBLY, 120,
MBLY: MBLY bullish?
26 0 0
MBLY, 120
MBLY bullish?

It's all heresay until it bounces off support but this is what I'd like to see if MBLY is going to deliver on it's initial five up. The fibs of the 5 up are standard other than the deep 2. So far, not awful. But how it behaves in the blue box will tell us what is next.

rwilday rwilday ETHXBT, 60, Long ,
ETHXBT: Final wave of correction in ETH?
79 0 0
ETHXBT, 60 Long
Final wave of correction in ETH?

We have a 5 wave 1 and a wave 2 it appears in our final c of this correction. The fibs suggest that it will head to .02 (magenta line) which also has confluence with the .5 retrace. Isn't interesting that it looks like a H+S pattern. This will likely fake out many traders. I did a little fib time and it appears that 3/28. This is a bit for kicks as not my ...

rwilday rwilday ETHXBT, 60, Long ,
ETHXBT: ETHXBT
64 0 0
ETHXBT, 60 Long
ETHXBT

I looks like I was wrong on the b wave and it took the form of an wxy (3-3-3). I could be wrong still but it appears that C has started. Yet we don't have 5 down in 1 yet. And, when we do it appears to already have formed a micro leading diagonal. That means the retrace will be high before wave 3 shoots us into the target zone. I put long because I am still going ...

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