rwilday
Long

Am I wrong in my count?

KRAKEN:ETHXBT   ETHXBT
60 3 0
These are the tough moments in Elliot Wave and puncuate the need to identify key support (like my blue box) and scale in trade. I already a bit long and intend to add lower but this c wave is not actiing like a c wave. C's are supposed to be the strongest impulses in the corrective moves like the 3rd wave in an impulse move. So, this should finish quickly here. So, now I'm second guessing. We will know in a couple days. We either get a strong move up and that leading diagonal is 1 of wave 3. Or, we move down deeper into the target. The tricky thing with leading diagonals is that they break the EW rule of 4 overlapping 1 so they don't look like an impulse. But they can show up in 1 just as ending diagonals can show up in 5. They signify a battle between bulls and bears. I will begin to add higher if I have to and we see an impulse up.
rwilday PRO
8 months ago
Right now this thing continues to dribble down. If I was originally right, It maybe that I simply counted wave 2 of c wrong since we have a new zig zag forming. If it is now completing 2 of c, that means the correction will project deeper into the target box. Many accuse Elliot Wave's constant correction. I'll argue that Elliot Wave has grown my wealth, but it is more about exercising good money money management. Don't overcommit to a count until most alternatives are discounted. And, in this situation, I have two options. Buy in the target zone with a stop at the .764 retrace, or buy the breakout. My choice is to scale lower until we get a breakout. Clearly we have a full wave 2 now so the wave 3 if breakout remains with a target of $28+ USD. There is very little argument there.
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rwilday PRO
8 months ago
It appears I was not originally wrong based on current price action. The current action is very much inline with 3 of c with a hard push now. So, right now, I maintain my wave targets on c but we need to see how 3 extends. Once we get into my lower target I'll deploy half of my Kraken account into ETH and wait for breakout. The current behavior of BTCUSD suggests it may be going into third wave, but we need a local breakout to confirm. It may be that ETH doesn't correct as much in USD basis as in XBT (BTC) basis.
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rwilday PRO rwilday
8 months ago
I should say more emphatically...based on action this is not a leading diagonal. Unless something unexpected happens this confirms my previous count in my mind. All orders still stand and I expect to accumulate in the blue box.
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