Dear all, from the years long chart with weekly candlesticks we can see that after completing the 5/15 - 2/16 correction EFA made a triple top on April as well as September (twice) 2016 before finally breaking out in March of 2017 into a powerful 3rd wave that has since given way to a wave 4 down. With EFA currently at 66.17 Wave 4 has retraced near perfectly to ...
First I found the channel. Then I took the swing high during the week of 3-19-18, that went out of that channel and place a vertical line there to find the next potential area for support as it intersects with the lower channel. And last week's candle held up around that area @ 69.05. Then I placed a vertical line on the previous swing low during the week of ...
I connected the last two weeks highs and lows with two trend lines. Then I placed a vertical line for this week's time line. And where they intersect at is my area of interest for support and resistance. Price is currently sitting right on support at 71.69.
Delta Wave in progress, should breakout in next 4 weeks, PT1: 77, expecting continutation of Major trend PT2: ≥89, which is validated by previous symmetrical measuring rule.
... for an .83/contract credit.
Notes: I seem to be on a double diagonal kick of late ... . Will look to take profit at 20% of the width of the wings/roll the short straddle aspect at 25% max or at 21-25 DTE.
I'm going flat today. Targets reached with confirming negative divergence. Can it leak higher? Sure, a bit. I'm primarily expecting consolidation into the mid-60s with support between 76.4% and 100% fib extensions shown in green. See earlier ideas linked below.
EFA has broken out of symmetrical triangle well before apex indicating very bullish move. Measuring rule implies potential gain of $56.61 or 89% from breakout. MACD also breaking out of downtrend since 2007.
I didn't have any positions on EFA and With IV Rank at 47, I wanted to sell some premium. We are out of the ideal 45 days expiration window and since my portfolio theta is pretty low right now I decided to do laddered straddles.
Selling the 62 Straddle with 32 days to expiration and another one with 60 days to expiration. This will give us an avg date of ...
Updated with log-based fibs. White count is my basecase. Wave 2 got so deep I had to calculate sub-waves of white 3 to refine the targets (shown in green to match fibs). Nice reaction these past few days with extreme positive divergence on MACD, several timeframes.
Blue corrective count is still valid as well, so caution is warranted between ~61-65 region. ...
