MSTR Near BreakoutThe markets are red, but not MSTR. Bullish wedge could breakout within a week pointing to $450+. MACD and Bressert crossing up. Little bit of RSI bullish divergence showing up on the daily.
MIGA trade ideas
MSTR Finished Flat and Ready for BounceJust hit 61.8% retracement of the recent pop up. It looks like 3 off the bottom but the recent bounce was off A=C from the July 16th drop after 5 waves up. Will know today or tomorrow if this plays out or it keeps dropping.
338.65This channel is not providing individualized trading or investment advice, nor is it a banking service, brokerage service, trading service, investment service or money management service
MSTR - Here comes #5 at the CenterlineRemember when I said, I do it again Sam?
Nothing changed. Only the price in the consolidation at P4.
This will temporarily end at P5 (Yellow Count), where I'll take my profit. With a little pressure, price will even make it to the L-MLH.
Then I'll relax and watch, how the Chickens run around and create new opportunity. 🐔🐓
Don't be a Chicken, be the 🦊 Fox 🦊, be clever and have patience.
Happy new week all §8-)
micro strat impulsive move to the upsidfe !!highly spec, fractal playing out could see an upswing to the 14-16k range, only bouted on how BTC plays out....
MSTR Short Alert | Lean Short Bias at $335
# ⚡ MSTR Short Alert | Lean Short Bias (Sep 2, 2025) 🪙📉
📊 **Market Summary:**
* Daily/Intraday: Bearish (Price < daily EMAs, RSI \~35, MACD negative) 🔻
* Weekly: Weakening but not decisively broken (near/above 50-week EMA) 📈
* Volume: Light — low participation on recent declines ⚖️
* Headlines: Neutral; watch BTC correlation & macro events 📰
**Net Bias:** Lean short on daily timeframe; small position recommended 🐻
---
## ✅ Trade Plan
* 🎯 **Instrument:** MSTR
* 🔀 **Direction:** SHORT
* 💵 **Entry Price:** \~335.0 (acceptable 333–336)
* 🛑 **Stop Loss:** 341.13 (daily resistance / pivot)
* 🎯 **Take Profit:** 320.00 (scale 60%), trail remaining 40% to 310.00
* 📊 **Position Size:** 1.5% of portfolio
* 📈 **Confidence:** 60%
* ⏰ **Entry Timing:** Market Open
---
## ⚠️ Key Risks
* Low volume → false break / short-squeeze risk ⚡
* MSTR-BTC correlation or S\&P rumors could gap price higher 🪙
* Weekly support \~322–325 may limit downside 🛑
---
## 💡 Trade Rationale
* Daily + 30m confluence: short-term bounce attempts stalling under intraday resistances (336–339)
* Weekly momentum weakening → controlled small-size short
* Stop above 341.13 → disciplined risk management
---
\#️⃣ **Tags / Hashtags:**
\#MSTR #ShortTrade #StockTrading #SwingTrade #CryptoCorrelation #DailyRSI #TradingSignal #RiskManagement 🐻🔥
MSTR Headed to Balance Sheet Insolvency?If my wave forecast is correct and BTC trades down toward $23K (ie. 80% log retracement level of the 2023-2025 bull run), MicroStrategy (Strategy) becomes balance sheet insolvent: liabilities (convertible debt + preferreds like STRK/STRF/STRD/STRC) would exceed assets.
That doesn’t mean automatic bankruptcy. Their convertibles only cost ~$35M/yr in interest, and even with ~$550–$680M/yr on ~$6.43B at 8–10% in preferred dividends layered on top, they can still cover fixed obligations short-term by liquidating BTC or issuing more equity. That keeps them out of Chapter 11 in the near term.
But the trade-off is ugly:
Massive dilution from issuing stock at distressed prices, or
Selling BTC at $23K just to stay afloat.
The real problem is the refinancing wall starting late 2027. With equity wiped on paper and ~$1.1B coming due by early 2028, any refinancing deal will be extremely punitive, handing creditors cheap equity or forcing fire-sale BTC disposals.
Market pricing implication:
Equity = option value only.
Common stock would likely collapse into deeply distressed single digits (<$10), well below NAV, because shareholders sit behind $8.2B in converts and $6.4B+ in high-yield preferreds.
So even if BTC really does retrace all the way to $23k, MSTR doesn’t go to $0 right away, but the stock trades like a distressed, over-leveraged call option on Bitcoin, with survival depending entirely on a rebound before maturities hit.
BTC Forecast:
Bearish MSTR is temporary; Rise to more than 412$ in the future.As it's obvious, MSTR has broken it's bullish trendline and a great pullback has happened. I believe after breaking a support at 293$, It will head toward 239$ then will rise and break the bearish trendline. After surpassing the 293$ resistance, It will catch 412$. Also it's evident that buying crypto by Michael Saylor can improve the stock price.
a megaphone over 500A good signal right on time was Powell saying he would change his monetary policy (he said he would adjust it). Then Bitcoin and all the equities hurt by the recent drops resumed the solid uptrend we’ve been seeing. They came back to consolidate technical levels and give us new highs. In the case of MSTR, we can see the formation of a megaphone pattern that could take us above 500 USD.
$MSTR – Bear Flag Breakdown SetupNASDAQ:MSTR – Bear Flag Triggering Despite Crypto Strength
MicroStrategy ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) has been drifting lower even as crypto has ripped the last few months — a clear sign of relative weakness. Every rally attempt has been faded, and now the chart is setting up a clean bear flag breakdown.
🔹 The Setup:
Price is pressing the $326 trigger level on a bear flag structure.
A breakdown here opens the door to $300 for the first cover zone.
Weak price action despite a strong sector = bearish divergence.
🔹 Market Context:
The NASDAQ:QQQ is flashing distribution signals — failed breakouts in momentum names and heavy selling under the surface.
If indexes continue to weaken, NASDAQ:MSTR could accelerate to the downside as speculative money comes out.
🔹 My Trade Plan:
1️⃣ Entry: Short on breakdown through $326.
2️⃣ Target: First covers into $300.
3️⃣ Stop: Above the flag highs — no need to fight if it reverses.
Why I Like This Setup:
Relative weakness vs. crypto = red flag for bulls.
Bear flag structure + clear trigger + defined target.
Broader market weakness adds conviction.
$MSTR better not cross $315 or less....While many don't agree with the direction that MSTR is heading, the technicals seem to tell a very clear story. Looking at support and resistance levels, we can see a strong resistance levels - which is miles away from where it is today! - and seems to be encroaching to support levels of around $315. If NASDAQ:MSTR breaks $315, CBOE:MSTZ could be a VERY NICE play.....
Have a hunch that we'll see an UltraShort signal soon, and then show will begin!
MSTR bound for reversal from support.Here you can find the candles in 4hr chart are at support and at trendline support making it a strong candidate for reversal.
MSTR Bottoming Soon?NASDAQ:MSTR continues to range while weekly RSI heads into oversold without a significant pullback, a good sign for a bullish long term outlook.
My downside target for this move remains the High Volume Node, weekly pivot and golden ratio Fibonacci retracement at $290.
The R3 weekly pivot is a solid terminal target at $1039 but could overextend in an irrational environment.
Analysis is invalidated below wave (IV)
Safe trading
MSTRMSTR MNAV for the moment is bearish and it could down until 1.1-0.7 MNAV if BTC begins a bearish market that could affect MSTR MNAV and MSTR price to a lower level between 160$-80$ as occur in 2022 bear market dropping more than 85% on price and 0.7 on MNAV level. MSTR is a volatile stock and it should be treated as high risk trade. No financial advice.
MicroStrategy Head And Shoulders Signals further downsideThe H&S pattern on the daily timeframe signals potential further downside relating to this current corrective period. Investors should beware of the diminishing volume on rallies and increasing volume in declines spurring a change in trend.
Targets for the Head And Shoulders pattern is the length of the head to the valley of the right shoulder.
Time to fill up the MSTR bags!Bitcoin is ready to pump. Powell is really to lower the rates.
It might feel scary right now but this is the time where the money is being earned.
It's just my idea. No financial advice :)
MSTR still bullish. MSTR bullishness is still intact but it should close above the upper yellow line for the bullishness confirmation intact. If that happens then there's a big possibility that we will see a big sharp last parabolic run to new ATH. Of course this is not financial advised.
If this failed then the last hope is on the Red Line.
MSTR Ponzi is paying for my yearly steak & lobster subscriptionWe can see that from the white Centerline, MSTR has only been heading south. In contrast, Bitcoin has held up quite a bit better so far.
If you go back through my posts, you’ll see that I’ve been warning for a long time that MSTR is basically feeding itself. That simply can’t end well!
Either way – we gratefully take our profit and wait until we reach the lower centerline. Because we know there’s about an 80% chance that the price will fall back into temporary equilibrium, the Centerline
And if you’re not too greedy, well then you take 70%–80% of the profits now and let the rest run.
Anyone who was able to learn something from this trade or even make profits is welcome to boost and comment. §8-)
YT video will be available tomorrow.
...and on we go.
$MSTR Testing Historical Key Support at 200DMAMicroStrategy had its largest daily close below the 200DMA in the past 893 days.
Historically this support level has market key bottoms.
RSI allows for a bit more pain to the downside, but NASDAQ:MSTR should find a bottom soon.
If not, $305 is in play.
$MSTR: Long term bullish trendNASDAQ:MSTR long term signal triggered...
Up trend in monthly scale until end of 2025.
Heard it here first, lads.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
8/19/25 - $strc - :)8/19/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:STRC
:)
- the fud around saylor and mstr expose how many ppl have done deep thinking about his capital stack. many are chitcoin' moonbois
- the reality is, STRC is a game changing product (it's a financial nuclear bomb to the japanese financial system when metaplanet launches it)
- but it's a 10% yielding 5x collateralized callable perp
- a better dollar
- so when you need to hand sit, may as well pay yourself in something better than t-bills
- yuh volatility.
- but again. do your homework
V
The Next Big Crypto Trade Bitcoin has experienced a notable decline following a failed auction attempt after sweeping all-time high liquidity. This move is now being followed by a significant retracement toward the lower boundary of the broader range, with the current range low positioned around $111K.
In contrast, MicroStrategy (MSTR) has exhibited a more structurally defined downtrend, having broken below its previous pivot low. This price action potentially forms a textbook ABC corrective pattern, with the 1:1 extension target clearly identifiable.
Should the broader market continue to decline in the lead-up to this week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s remarks, a compelling long setup may emerge. This could coincide with a potential 'sell-the-news' reaction, particularly if the Federal Reserve moves to cut interest rates.
Rate-sensitive equities and assets may initially respond to such news with bullish enthusiasm, possibly triggering a wave of market euphoria and leading to a short squeeze scenario.
I’m closely monitoring the $320 level on MSTR, which aligns with three key technical confluences:
The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the overall move (swing low to swing high).
The 1:1 extension target of the possible ABC corrective structure.
A key support/resistance flip zone, which may mark a potential structural pivot point.
This zone presents a high-probability area for potential price reaction. Let’s see how this plays out.
