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SPY: Are the Bears Preparing for Winter?Greetings again, fellow travelers. Once more, I am not here to offer a crystal ball, but simply to share the patterns I observe and the story they seem to be telling. This is one perspective, a single lens through which to view the market's vast landscape. Take what serves you on your own path. SPY: Are the Bears Preparing for Winter? The narrative for SPY feels similar to the broader market: a moment of pause and potential reversal after a strong run. However, the winds here feel a bit colder. Recent commentary from Jerome Powell suggesting the economy may be more fragile than it appears, coupled with the ongoing tariff situation, provides a fundamental backdrop that warrants extra caution. It feels like the seasons are changing. The bear claws seem sharp, and as we approach the colder months, they may need to fatten up before hibernation. This is a time when they can be voracious, so we must navigate with awareness and respect for their power. The Technical Story on the Daily Chart The chart itself reflects this cautious sentiment: Fading Momentum: Just as we saw elsewhere, the momentum indicators in the lower panel are showing signs of exhaustion. The energy that propelled this last move up is beginning to wane, suggesting the path of least resistance may soon be shifting downwards. Market Structure: Price is hovering at a level where it has previously met resistance. A failure to push decisively higher here could invite sellers to step in with more confidence. Potential Pullback Zones: If sellers do take control, I see two primary areas of interest below: The first key support level is around the $577.50 mark, which represents a previous market structure break (MSB). Below that, a larger demand zone sits between $510-$530 , where longer-term buyers might be waiting. An Illustrative Short Setup For those whose plan aligns with this cautious view, the current price offers a quality risk/reward setup based on the updated parameters. Bias: Short-Term Bearish Entry: Around $642.00 Stop Loss: A clearly defined stop above the recent price action at ~$665.01 protects against a change in the narrative. Take Profit: Targeting the support level at ~$577.50 . The Risk/Reward for this specific idea is approximately 1:2.8 . Navigating the River This potential downturn is not something to fear, but something to understand. It is a cycle. For those who are patient, it could present a fantastic "buy the dip" opportunity later on. The key is not to fight the current. Don't be a salmon. A salmon fights with all its might to swim upstream, and while noble, it often ends in exhaustion and peril. Right now, the river's current feels bearish. It is wiser to be a leaf, flowing with it, observing from the bank, and waiting for the stream to calm before entering again. This is my piece of the puzzle. I hope it helps. Just shine. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. It is for educational and informational purposes only. Please conduct your own research and manage your risk accordingly.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TheTradingDoct0r
Bearish OutlookThe market reaction to Powell’s speech, in which the potential rate cut by the Fed in September was essentially confirmed, led to a rise. However, what’s encouraging is that the previous peak wasn’t broken. This is a good sign for a short. Just to remind, I have a rather bearish view on the broader market in the medium-term (on a 1-year horizon). And perhaps the moment has come. Maybe it's not yet the time for a big short, but we could certainly head toward the 630 area. 📝Trading Plan 🟢Entry: Short from the current level 🔴Stop: 647. If we go above the historical maximum, I’ll exit, and the idea will be off. I’ll look for another entry point for a short. 🎯Target: The potential downside is to 630, maybe even lower—let's see. For now, this is the plan.
AMEX:SPYShort
by kventinka
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 25 – 29, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 25 – 29, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Themes Jackson Hole aftermath 🏔️ Powell’s Friday keynote sets the tone. Markets will trade on whether he opened the door to a September cut or stuck to a cautious stance. Expect chop in AMEX:SPY , NASDAQ:TLT , TVC:DXY as traders recalibrate. Inflation & Jobs 🔥💼 Fresh PCE inflation and jobless claims anchor the week. Any upside surprise revives “higher-for-longer”; softness = fuel for cut odds. Retail earnings wrap 🛒 With $WMT/$TGT/ NYSE:HD behind us, discounters and specialty retailers close the season. AMEX:XRT stays a barometer of consumer resilience. Housing & confidence 🏠📉 Pending Home Sales + Conference Board Confidence will test sentiment in an affordability squeeze backdrop. Watch AMEX:XHB , $XLY. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) 📅 Monday, Aug 25 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30 AM) – broad growth pulse. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:30 AM) – regional check. 📅 Tuesday, Aug 26 Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM) – capex signal; core ex-transport key. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:00 AM) – factory health in Mid-Atlantic. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (9:00 AM) – housing momentum. Conference Board Consumer Confidence (10:00 AM) – labor intentions, rate sentiment. 📅 Wednesday, Aug 27 MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00 AM) – weekly mortgage pulse. Advance Economic Indicators (8:30 AM) – trade, inventories, wholesale. Pending Home Sales (10:00 AM) – affordability and turnover test. Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 AM) – $CL_F/ AMEX:XLE driver. 📅 Thursday, Aug 28 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM) – labor cooling watch. GDP (2nd Estimate, Q2) (8:30 AM) – growth momentum, revisions matter. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (11:00 AM) – regional survey. 📅 Friday, Aug 29 PCE Price Index (Jul, 8:30 AM) – Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Personal Income & Outlays (8:30 AM) – consumer demand and savings rates. Chicago PMI (9:45 AM) – manufacturing signal ahead of ISM next week. UMich Consumer Sentiment (Final, 10:00 AM) – inflation expectations track. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #SPY #SPX #Fed #PCE #GDP #Housing #Confidence #Energy #Bonds #Dollar
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
The SPY is continuing upward…The SPY is continuing upward. I have the target as being around Oct. 9th. There will be a few reports coming out that day including jobless claims, etc. But the market can always exit the triangle prior to the expected date usually around 2/3 to the tip of the triangle. I suspect it will move lower in October but I will wait and see where the indicators are to make that judgement. As of right now, I have indicated both an up or downward movement. I have posted the 4 hour chart as you can see the market is already bullish on the 4 hour chart but not the daily chart (just yet) As I have said in my previous charts, I am a technical trader but I believe fundamentals drive the market. I used the Heikin Ashi candles: 1: They show more of a directional movement. 2: They tend to filter out the market noise, so you can see the direction better. 3: it reduces false signals, allowing you to stay in the trade longer. 4: And it also gives a smoother appearance making it easier to see the trends and reversals. Trade at your own risk, make sure you have stops in place and only use 10% of your trading account, so that if you are wrong, you will not blow up your account. Happy trading! (I am drawing this on my phone so I got to be quick! LOL!)
AMEX:SPYLong
by Princessgirl
How to Filter for Trading CandidatesIntroduction This post explores how to filter tradable assets using structural and behavioral criteria. While the examples focus on swing trading stocks, the same principles apply across other markets. A structured selection process helps refine the list of candidates and supports a more consistent approach. The use of filters can reduce the universe of stocks to those that fit the chosen method. For example, in momentum trading, the purpose is to find stocks that have already shown strong movement and may offer continuation opportunities. There are multiple approaches to selection. This chapter focuses on two practical methods: scan-based filtering and a top-down approach. Foundational Filters These basic criteria can be applied across all scans and serve to exclude assets that are illiquid or incompatible with standard execution. The specific thresholds used may depend on personal account size, capital allocation and trading style. This guide focuses on swing trading, where moderate liquidity and price stability are important to ensure consistent fills and manageable risk. The Sector Relative Strength tool can help show leading sectors versus the S&P 500 Index over the longer term. This optional top-down approach highlights which areas of the market are outperforming and can support manual refinement. Setup-Based Filters These examples demonstrate criteria for identifying potential continuation setups following recent momentum. The filters shown are for bullish conditions; for bearish setups, the logic is reversed. For other approaches, such as fading, filters based on excursion/overextension would be applied instead. Use the Momentum Tracker to visualize when stocks historically met each of these criteria. This helps evaluate the behavior that preceded meaningful setups and refine your filters over time. Optional Refinement Filters These filters can help focus the scans further and improve candidate quality. Candidates can also be sorted based on preference. A common method is to sort by recent volatility, such as ATR%, or distance from the mean price to prioritize price retracement or contraction. Momentum Scan Example This sample scan uses normalized momentum to identify new highs in price. The method is standardized and adapts well across different markets. In case the number of candidates is extensive, filters can be more restrictive or additional criteria applied to narrow the selection. Market Context Market breadth is the equilibrium between the number of stocks in advance to those in a decline, in other words a method to determine the current market environment. In a positive phase, bullish setups will have improved probabilities and presence, whereas in a bearish phase the opposite would be true. There tends to be a correlation in the market, where stocks often move in line with their sector or the broader index. Being aware of where capital is flowing helps align trades with the broader environment. In case one has an effective scan and review process, much of this assessment is implicitly accounted for. This guide will not cover these in depth, but there are numerous ways to evaluate market context; such as reviewing index or sector performance, market breadth, and monitoring economic or macro events. The most important part is to be consistent and apply discretion within the chosen process.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by StockLeave
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 8-22 : Is This The Top?This is a follow-up to my recent video to help answer questions and to share my analysis of the SPY/QQQ, Gold/Silver, and Bitcoin for all viewers. This video also addresses the tools I use to stay on top of the swings in price movement and highlights why I believe the markets may continue to unwind from these lofty highs. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
4
SPY | Leap of Doom?SPY just jumped... The wrong way up! To sustain you must conserve. To climb up a hill, you need energy, resources like food and water. The energy they give you far out-weighs their absolute mass. Therefore it makes sense for you to carry them. And they have taken you very far... But now you have run out of energy. Price growth needs transaction volume to have strength and meaning. You are too light(headed) to realize that moving further up is a dead-end. THIS IS NOT SOMETHING SMALL. SPY is one of the largest Funds in the world. A first-ever major violation of volume trend, in such a big index, must not be ignored. Imagine what is happening underneath... Look at some examples: NVDA The most massive of companies, has a multi-year issue with volume. MSFT Unlike its first growth, Microsoft has a tremendous loss of strength in volume metrics. Such long-term drop in volume means that companies offload real stocks for cheap futures . We witness the same with Bitcoin... And gold... Not quite doomed yet, but troublesome still. TSLA Tesla with their shiny and financially pointless cars, has made a pointless growth. Just like many stocks as you will soon realize. AAPL The masses, even though their name suggests that they have some matter, in reality they don't. 10% of people have 90% of wealth. Investors have long left Apple, leaving the hoard inside to bubble up the dream. There is more and more proof that the Fab5 (well the Fab500 as we can see from SPY/SPX) are replacing stocks with derivatives. Real money replaced by weapons of mass destruction, just like Warren Buffett said. Good luck to us all... PS. Something irrelevant to stocks, but relevant to the fundamentals of investing in AAPL. Judging by the recent UI decisions, they trapped the users in bubbles and they are unable to see the truth. Brilliantly, they changed the name of soap bubbles to liquid glass. (bubbles are shiny, crystals are rough). As a long-time Apple user, now not much of an Apple lover, I know quite well the changing philosophy of them. iPhone (and all products) began as a phone for the "smart" ones and ended up the No1 desire for the masses. After a decade, I have switched to Fedora Silverblue for 90% of my leisure.
AMEX:SPY
by akikostas
8
SPY Daily Chart: Uptrend Intact, Key Supports in Focus SPY Daily Chart: Uptrend Intact, Key Supports in Focus Established Uptrend with Strong Trend Line Support: SPY continues to display a clear upward trend on the daily timeframe, with price consistently finding support along the depicted trend line. The recent pullback in mid-August saw price effectively test and bounce off this crucial trend line, reaffirming its strength. 640 as Immediate and Confluent Support: The 640 level has proven to be an immediate support zone, coinciding with the recent touch of the upward trend line. The market has shown a decisive bounce from this confluence of support, suggesting current bullish momentum for the short term. Key Level 620-625 as Deeper Support: Should the immediate 640 support and the upward trend line fail to hold, the next significant 'Key Level' to monitor is the 620 to 625 range. This area has previously acted as a strong demand zone and would represent a more substantial correction within the prevailing uptrend. Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole speech signaling potential rate cuts amid labor market slowdown and inflation risks, fueled a surge in growth and tech stocks, reinforcing today’s rally. Disclaimer: The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
AMEX:SPYLong
by ManiMarkets
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for Friday, August 22, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for Friday, August 22, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News Powell’s Jackson Hole keynote is the main event (10:00 AM ET). Markets want clarity on the path to cuts and any framework tweaks; the Fed’s own calendar lists the speech and KC Fed confirms the Aug 21–23 agenda. $SPY/$TLT/ TVC:DXY are the most sensitive. Risk tone turned cautious into the speech. Stocks faded Thursday as traders de-risked ahead of Powell; positioning is tight and headline-sensitive. Dollar firm / gold steady into Jackson Hole. Classic pre-keynote safety bid; futures price a high probability of a September cut, keeping two-way risk for rates and equities. Global cues: Japan CPI lands overnight; UK retail sales postponed. Japan’s July inflation print hits before U.S. cash open; the U.K.’s July retail sales were pushed to Sep 5, trimming one macro catalyst from the tape. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) 10:00 AM — Fed Chair Powell @ Jackson Hole (Keynote). Why it matters: Sets near-term curve path and risk appetite; watch $TLT/ TVC:TNX and TVC:DXY → AMEX:SPY reaction. 1:00 PM — Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count. Why it matters: Energy activity → supply expectations → $CL_F/ AMEX:XLE ; persistent rig drift can nudge inflation expectations. (Released weekly at noon CT/1 PM ET.) Overnight — Japan CPI (Jul). Why it matters: Yen rates and global FX spillovers; a surprise could ripple into U.S. risk before the keynote. All day — Jackson Hole Symposium continues. Why it matters: Secondary speakers can color post-Powell reaction as positioning resets. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #JacksonHole #Powell #DXY #TLT #Gold #Energy #RigCount
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
SPY Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 082025Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 634/61.80% Chart time frame:B A) 15 min(1W-3M) B) 1 hr(3M-6M) C) 4 hr(6M-1year) D) 1 day(1-3years) Stock progress:A A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance B) 61.80% resistance C) 61.80% support D) Hit the bottom E) Hit the top Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern. When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point. As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved. If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks. If you want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day
AMEX:SPY
by fibonacci6180
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for Thursday, August 21, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for Thursday, August 21, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines Tech jitters spill as Jackson Hole kicks off. Global equities slipped following a tech sell‑off driven by concerns over U.S. intervention in chipmakers, while traders await Fed Chair Powell’s policy cues. AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:TLT under pressure as rate‑cut expectations waver. Sony hikes PS5 prices amid tariffs. Effective August 21, PlayStation 5 models in the U.S. see a $50 price increase—tariff impact spilling into consumer electronics. Raises inflation whispers amid already elevated tech cost narrative. Healthcare activism heats up. Boards at firms like Medtronic, Pfizer, and Novo Nordisk shift under investor pressure—governance shake‑ups adding a layer of corporate risk and potential M&A signals. ⏱ Key Data Releases & Events (ET) 10:00 AM — Advance Services Report (Q2) (Census bureau). Quarterly weight of service economy—strong print supports Pro side of markets; weak could dial back rate‑cut hopes. 10:00 AM — Summer Youth Labor Force Survey (Annual). Goes with job‑market narrative from July—may tweak Fed sentiment depending on labor softening/stability. Jackson Hole Symposium begins. Markets now fully focused on Powell; tone could make or break short‑term equity and bond positions. ⚠ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #Fed #JacksonHole #SPY #SPX #TLT #Sony #tech #tariffs #services #labor #activism #healthcare
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
SPY at a Decision Point – Aug. 21SPY at a Decision Point – Will 639 Hold or Break? 📉📈 Technical Analysis (1H Chart) SPY is showing a classic bounce attempt after the sharp selloff. Price is sitting around 637–638, just under the downtrend resistance line. The chart highlights: * Trendline Pressure: Multiple touches of the descending trendline; rejection risk remains high unless bulls reclaim 641–642. * Key Support: Buyers defended the 635 zone, with the next strong support down at 632–633. Losing this area could trigger another wave lower. * Momentum Indicators: * MACD is trying to curl bullish from oversold, but momentum is shallow. * Stoch RSI is already extended near overbought — suggesting rallies may stall soon if not confirmed with volume. * Structure: If SPY fails to clear 641.5–642, we may see another lower-high formation and retest of 635. Trading View (Intraday): * Bullish case → Clear break + hold above 642, targeting 646–647 supply zone. * Bearish case → Failure under 639–641 could drag SPY back toward 635–633. GEX / Options Sentiment Options positioning confirms this tight battle zone: * Call Walls / Resistance: * 640 → First big resistance, aligning with HVL zone. * 642–644 → Multiple call walls (9–10% concentration). * 647–648 → Extreme upside wall, likely gamma cap. * Put Walls / Support: * 637 (GEX7 / -11%) → First downside magnet. * 635 (2nd Put Wall / -20%) → Strong support cluster. * 632 (GEX10 / -5%) → Deeper downside target if selling extends. * Net Options Flow: * Puts dominate ~87% (bearish tilt). * IVR low (14.4) → cheap options pricing, directional plays favored. * GEX heavily negative at 639, meaning dealer hedging could accelerate volatility around this pivot. Thoughts & Suggestions * Market is heavily leaning bearish, but intraday scalps can flip quickly if bulls reclaim 642. * For options traders: * Bullish scalp setup → Calls only if breakout above 642 with momentum confirmation. * Bearish setup → Favor puts on rejection under 639–641, with 635/632 as profit zones. * Risk management is key here: chop is possible between 637–641 before a decisive move. 🔔 Conclusion: SPY is at a tight inflection between 639 support and 641–642 resistance. Dealer flow favors downside, but if bulls can reclaim 642, a short squeeze toward 646–647 opens up. Until then, bias stays slightly bearish. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before trading.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
PLTR Bouncing Off Capitulation Zone-Aug 21PLTR Bouncing Off Capitulation Zone – Can Bulls Reclaim Control? 🚀 🔹 Technical Analysis (1-Hour Chart) PLTR sold off sharply, finding a temporary bottom around $149–150, which aligned with high volume support. The rebound has been strong, with price now pressing into the $159–160 resistance shelf. This zone is critical because it coincides with a previous breakdown level. * Trend: Still bearish overall, but the sharp bounce shows buyers defending the $150 zone. * Momentum: Stoch RSI is turning up from oversold, while MACD shows early bullish momentum. * Resistance Levels: $160 (current HVL and breakdown shelf), then $162.5 and $167.5. * Support Levels: $155 (minor shelf), then $150 (major support). A loss of $150 opens the door toward $145. If $160 is reclaimed and held, PLTR can attempt a short-term recovery back into the mid-$160s. Failure at this resistance risks another leg lower toward $150. 🔹 GEX / Options Sentiment Options positioning highlights the same pivot: * Call Resistance: Heavy walls at $162.5 (45%) and $167.5 (26%), with another layer at $170 (41%). Dealers are short here, so breakouts above $162.5 could squeeze. * Put Support: Strongest put wall around $155, with extreme negative GEX at $150 and $145. If $150 breaks, downside could accelerate. * IV & Sentiment: IVR 25.9 with calls only 7.9% → options sentiment still leans bearish/hedged. Interpretation: GEX suggests a tug-of-war between $155–160. Bulls must clear $160 to ignite call wall hedging up toward $167+. Bears will defend this zone aggressively, and a rejection here drags us back toward $150. 🎯 Trade Thoughts * Bullish Setup: Break & hold above $160 → entry long with targets $162.5 → $167.5. Stop under $155. * Bearish Setup: Rejection at $160 → short targeting $155 → $150. Stop above $162.5. Conclusion:
PLTR is at a decision point. $160 is the key battleground for bulls vs bears. Options data aligns with the chart — reclaiming $160 could spark a gamma squeeze higher, while rejection keeps pressure back to $150 support. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights