Institutions Are Hedging Their Longs / A Crash May Be ComingWe have several factors pointing toward a high-risk environment in the market. There are multiple bubbles, a president who has created global drama, high interest rates, and an economy that is so overstimulated that, in principle, a crash is needed to straighten things out and bring the market back to reality.
Right now the market is not rational. We have a tech sector with sky-high P/E ratios, the S&P 500 versus the Fed Funds Rate at levels that have historically led to extreme crashes, and COT data showing how institutions have positioned their futures contracts. It clearly shows that institutions are afraid and have therefore hedged against their long positions.
They are hedging, timing is difficult, and we don’t know exactly when this will happen, but we may already be seeing the beginning. Right now professionals are securing themselves. We are in a perfect storm for a crash; one drop too much and the entire market could flip flat.
I have made great gains this year in gold, the tech sector, and even on several short-term trades. I am currently 50% hedged through various products such as options, futures, and other instruments. I am ready, if the market continues higher I will remain fairly neutral, but if we crash I will make a significant profit. Sure, we could see another bull run, but the data suggests anything but that. Play smart.
