Small fish follow the streamUpdate: My best case scenario. 9000 points in a massive bull run that started in 2009. Hyperbolic move since then.
Top in March 2027
Trade ideas
US 500The US 500 has just broken through the 6650 level again. After testing support and closing above it, the trend is to target the next level, 6700.
15% uptrend until March 2027Just have a look.
The market is in an incredible bull run since 2009. Its move is parabolic and it will probably end around 8000 pips in March 2027.
My theory is based in the bottoms of this cycles:
2008-2015-2020-2023-2025 or in other words:
Finantial crisis.
Covid
Israel Conflict
Trump´s Tariffs.
Other indicators are Gann cycles which collide in the exact points.
Therefore, my idea is to see Sp500 at 7800 points in March 2027 before seeing the huge crash that it must be needed to cool off after almost 20 years of bull run.
This could be a big Triangle on SPX500USDHi traders,
Last week we saw a correction up and more downside for SPX500USD just as I've said in my outlook.
On Friday it went up again so the corrective pattern could be a Triangle.
In that case next week we could see another correction down and after that up again.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for the finish of this bigger correction. Trading inside a Triangle is a sure way to lose.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
But I react and trade on what I see in the chart, not what I've predicted or expect.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
SP500 path forward: volatility and retest of previous highsAssuming that previous patterns continue, and they may not, the SP500 will eventually retest its previous new highs, but likely not in the near future, short of a volatility event.
S&P 500 (SPX) Simple Break Down The S&P (SPX) is sitting at a key turning point. Here’s what to watch for next:
If price drops below 6553, we could see it keep falling toward 6469 and if that breaks, then possibly down to around 6398.
But if price pushes above 6763, the next big target area could be 7237–7274.
So basically:
👉 Below 6553 = likely drop
👉 Above 6763 = likely climb
Right now, we’re in a tight spot where either direction could open up a strong move.
If you’re unsure how to trade around these levels or what kind of pullback makes sense, shoot me a quick DM
I can walk you through how I’m looking at setups and risk zones in plain English.
Mindbloome Exchange
US500 Breaks Out and Aims HigherUS500 Breaks Out and Aims Higher
Since the start of October, the US500 has been moving inside a large bullish pattern, showing signs of accumulation. Now, it looks ready to rise again, supported by expectations that the FOMC will continue with its rate cut plans in the upcoming meetings.
The FOMC minutes released yesterday also confirmed support for a 25 bps rate cut, adding strength to market optimism.
Recently, the US500 broke out of the bullish pattern, suggesting more upside potential ahead.
For now, the next targets are around 6780 and 6800.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
SPX: S&P500 An Economical Reset Again?Technically, the chart is vivid and self-explanatory.
The RSI (14) is implicating an obvious Negative Divergence before the last downturn and the chart recent structure.
The US treasury has no other option but printing more and more bucks, or cutting the interest rates. I don't know any other financial instruments.
Fundamentally, no market structure can soar or fall eternally.
I have had a look on BTC and Gold Futures. Gold has some room during the coming years. Yet, regarding bitcoin, according to futures I prefer not to be too optimistic.
The implications at the moment are only some assumptions and the future remains a uncertain. This is a systematic luck guess and bet.
We have several barometers and tools based on which we can Approximate the possibilities through a few scenarios and nothing more.
Eventually, we need to check those factors and barometers and practice several reasonable scenarios on our capital.
This is not a financial advice, but it is a serious warning against perils if an over-financialization phenomenon following almost a century from that black era of high unemployment and economical downturn that the US experienced in 1930s.
DYOR
Please like and follow and have your comments inhere.
Reserve Currency Dominance: Mechanisms, History, and Future OutlIntroduction
In the complex fabric of the global economy, the concept of reserve currency dominance plays a crucial role in shaping international trade, finance, and geopolitical power. A reserve currency is a foreign currency that central banks and major financial institutions hold in large quantities for international transactions, investments, and to stabilize their own currencies. Dominance in reserve currency status means that one currency—historically the U.S. dollar—acts as the world’s primary medium of exchange, store of value, and unit of account in the global financial system.
Reserve currency dominance is not merely a matter of economics; it embodies political influence, military strength, and institutional trust. Over time, it has dictated global trade patterns, shaped capital flows, and influenced monetary policy decisions across nations. This essay explores the evolution, mechanisms, and implications of reserve currency dominance, with particular focus on the U.S. dollar’s supremacy and emerging challenges in a multipolar world.
Historical Evolution of Reserve Currency Dominance
The concept of a reserve currency is centuries old. Historically, the dominant reserve currency has always been associated with the world’s leading economic and military power. During different eras, currencies such as the Venetian ducat, Spanish silver real, Dutch guilder, and British pound sterling held global reserve status. Each period of dominance reflected the geopolitical and economic influence of the issuing nation.
1. The British Pound Era (19th to early 20th century)
During the 19th century, the British Empire’s global reach made the pound sterling the leading reserve currency. London emerged as the world’s financial capital, and the gold standard provided monetary stability. Nations held pounds because they trusted Britain’s financial institutions and its vast trade networks. The sterling system symbolized confidence, liquidity, and convertibility into gold.
2. Transition to the U.S. Dollar (Post-World War II)
World War II shifted the economic balance of power. The United States emerged as the world’s industrial powerhouse, holding the majority of global gold reserves. The Bretton Woods Agreement (1944) institutionalized the U.S. dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency, pegged to gold at $35 per ounce. Other currencies were pegged to the dollar, effectively making it the world’s anchor currency.
3. Post-Bretton Woods and Dollar Supremacy
In 1971, President Richard Nixon ended the dollar’s convertibility to gold, marking the collapse of Bretton Woods. Yet, the dollar retained its dominance due to the Petrodollar system, in which oil prices were denominated in dollars, and the global reliance on U.S. financial markets. The U.S. economy’s depth, liquidity, and stability continued to attract foreign reserves, even without a gold peg.
Mechanisms Sustaining Reserve Currency Dominance
For a currency to dominate global reserves, several interlinked mechanisms must operate effectively:
1. Economic Scale and Stability
A dominant reserve currency is typically issued by the world’s largest and most stable economy. The United States accounts for a significant share of global GDP and trade, providing the dollar with a vast network of transactions. Economic scale ensures that the currency is widely used and trusted.
2. Deep and Liquid Financial Markets
Reserve currencies require large, stable, and liquid financial markets. The U.S. Treasury market, for example, is the most liquid in the world, allowing investors and central banks to buy and sell assets without major price fluctuations. The reliability of these markets gives central banks confidence in holding dollar-denominated assets.
3. Institutional Trust and Rule of Law
The credibility of the issuing nation’s institutions—its central bank, judiciary, and regulatory bodies—is vital. The U.S. Federal Reserve and the country’s legal system offer transparency, predictability, and strong investor protections. This institutional trust is a cornerstone of reserve currency dominance.
4. Network Effects
Once a currency becomes dominant, it benefits from self-reinforcing network effects. Global trade, finance, and commodities become priced in that currency, making it more convenient and efficient for countries to hold it as reserves. The more it is used, the more valuable it becomes for global participants.
5. Geopolitical and Military Influence
Reserve currency dominance often parallels military and political power. The U.S., through its global alliances and defense capabilities, has maintained a secure international environment that underpins confidence in its currency. Countries tend to hold the currency of a politically stable superpower rather than that of a regional or unstable state.
The Dollar’s Global Dominance
The U.S. dollar remains the world’s undisputed reserve currency, despite growing talk of diversification and de-dollarization. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), roughly 58% of global foreign exchange reserves are held in U.S. dollars (as of 2025). The euro follows with around 20%, while other currencies such as the Japanese yen, British pound, and Chinese yuan make up smaller portions.
1. Role in Global Trade
Approximately 80% of global trade transactions are invoiced in U.S. dollars. Even countries not directly trading with the U.S. use the dollar as a reference currency. This global acceptance simplifies pricing, invoicing, and payment settlements.
2. Dollar in Financial Markets
Global commodities—including oil, gold, and agricultural products—are predominantly priced in dollars. Additionally, international debt issuance and cross-border banking rely heavily on dollar-denominated assets, reinforcing the greenback’s global reach.
3. U.S. Treasury Securities
Central banks hold U.S. Treasury bonds as a primary form of reserves due to their safety and liquidity. During times of crisis, investors typically rush to U.S. assets, further strengthening the dollar’s position—a phenomenon known as the “flight to safety.”
Benefits of Reserve Currency Dominance
For the United States, reserve currency dominance brings numerous advantages that few other nations enjoy:
1. Lower Borrowing Costs
Because global demand for U.S. Treasury securities remains strong, the U.S. government can borrow at lower interest rates. This allows America to finance large fiscal deficits with relative ease—a phenomenon referred to as the “exorbitant privilege.”
2. Global Influence
The dollar’s dominance gives the U.S. substantial geopolitical leverage. Economic sanctions, trade restrictions, and financial controls imposed through the dollar-based system can effectively isolate nations from global finance.
3. Economic Stability
Global demand for dollars helps stabilize the U.S. economy by attracting continuous capital inflows. The dollar’s safe-haven status often cushions the U.S. from financial turbulence affecting other economies.
Costs and Risks of Dominance
While reserve currency dominance offers power and privilege, it also entails structural challenges:
1. Trade Deficits
To supply the world with dollars, the U.S. must run persistent current account deficits. This structural imbalance, known as the Triffin Dilemma, means that the U.S. must provide global liquidity even at the cost of domestic imbalances.
2. Policy Constraints
Because of the global demand for dollars, U.S. monetary policy has international consequences. Interest rate hikes or cuts by the Federal Reserve can trigger capital flows, currency fluctuations, and inflationary pressures across emerging markets.
3. Financial Overdependence
Excessive global reliance on the dollar creates vulnerabilities. Any disruption in the U.S. financial system—such as the 2008 crisis—spreads rapidly worldwide. The dollar’s centrality amplifies systemic risks.
Challenges to Dollar Dominance
Although the dollar remains unrivaled, several forces are gradually reshaping the reserve currency landscape.
1. Rise of the Euro
The euro, since its introduction in 1999, has become the second most held reserve currency. The European Union’s large economy and integrated financial systems support its use, though political fragmentation and lack of a unified fiscal policy limit its potential to dethrone the dollar.
2. The Chinese Yuan (Renminbi)
China’s yuan has been gaining recognition, particularly after its inclusion in the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket in 2016. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), expansion of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), and increasing yuan-denominated trade have supported China’s long-term ambitions for currency internationalization. However, capital controls and limited market transparency remain major obstacles.
3. Digital Currencies and CBDCs
The emergence of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and blockchain-based payment systems presents potential alternatives to traditional reserve systems. China’s digital yuan, for example, aims to reduce dependency on the dollar-dominated SWIFT system. Similarly, discussions of a BRICS currency or digital gold-backed instruments indicate growing interest in multipolar monetary frameworks.
4. De-dollarization Trends
In recent years, several nations have diversified their reserves away from the dollar. Russia, China, and members of the BRICS alliance have increased holdings of gold and other currencies. Moreover, countries are exploring bilateral trade in local currencies, particularly in energy and defense sectors.
Future Outlook: Multipolar Currency Order
The global financial architecture is gradually shifting from unipolar to multipolar. While the dollar’s dominance will likely continue in the medium term, structural trends suggest a slow diversification of global reserves.
Short-term outlook (2025–2035):
The dollar will remain dominant due to trust, liquidity, and institutional strength. Alternative systems may gain traction but won’t replace the dollar outright.
Medium-term outlook (2035–2050):
A multipolar system may emerge with the euro, yuan, and possibly digital assets sharing reserve functions. The share of the dollar could decline to around 40–45%.
Long-term outlook:
Global reserve systems may evolve into digital or commodity-backed models, reducing dependence on any single national currency. The rise of blockchain-based settlement systems may redefine monetary sovereignty and financial autonomy.
Conclusion
Reserve currency dominance has always been a reflection of global power structures—economic, political, and institutional. The U.S. dollar’s supremacy, forged after World War II, remains the cornerstone of the modern financial system. Its strength lies in America’s vast economic capacity, transparent markets, and geopolitical influence. Yet, this dominance is not guaranteed forever.
As the world transitions toward multipolarity—with the rise of China, the European Union’s consolidation, and the emergence of digital currencies—the foundations of the dollar-based order are being tested. While no alternative yet offers the same combination of trust, liquidity, and stability, the long-term trajectory suggests a gradual diversification of global reserves.
Ultimately, the future of reserve currency dominance will depend not only on economic fundamentals but also on technological innovation, geopolitical cooperation, and the resilience of global financial institutions. The dollar’s reign may persist, but the seeds of a new, more balanced monetary order are already being sown.
Traders, Investors, and PolicymakersTheir Role in Global Trading.
Introduction
Global trading forms the backbone of the world economy. It connects nations through the exchange of goods, services, capital, and ideas, driving economic growth and innovation. Behind the seamless flow of trade, three critical groups shape its structure and direction — traders, investors, and policymakers. Each group plays a distinct but interconnected role in ensuring that global markets function efficiently, fairly, and sustainably.
Traders facilitate transactions and price discovery; investors allocate capital and influence long-term market trends; policymakers design the legal and institutional framework that governs trade and investment. Together, they create a dynamic balance between market forces and regulations, driving global economic progress.
1. The Role of Traders in Global Trading
1.1 Market Intermediaries and Price Discovery
Traders are the front-line participants in global markets. Their primary function is to buy and sell goods, commodities, currencies, and financial instruments across borders. Through their actions, traders facilitate price discovery — the process by which the value of an asset is determined based on supply and demand.
In global markets, traders operate in multiple forms:
Commodity traders, dealing in oil, metals, agricultural products, etc.
Currency traders (forex traders), influencing exchange rates and liquidity.
Equity and derivatives traders, focusing on stocks, bonds, and financial contracts.
By responding quickly to changing market conditions — such as geopolitical tensions, inflation data, or production shifts — traders ensure that prices reflect real-time global realities. This continuous activity keeps markets liquid and efficient.
1.2 Risk Management and Hedging
Global trade is inherently risky. Prices of commodities and currencies fluctuate constantly due to factors like weather, politics, and global demand. Traders play a critical role in risk management by using derivatives instruments such as futures, options, and swaps.
For example:
An oil producer may hedge future prices by selling crude oil futures contracts.
An importer may buy currency futures to protect against exchange rate volatility.
Such hedging activities stabilize revenues and costs, making international trade more predictable. Traders thus act not merely as profit seekers but also as risk absorbers, helping firms and economies manage uncertainty.
1.3 Liquidity Creation and Market Efficiency
One of the most important functions traders perform is liquidity creation. By continuously buying and selling, they ensure that there is always a counterparty for market participants wanting to enter or exit a trade. Liquidity enhances market efficiency, reducing transaction costs and narrowing bid-ask spreads.
In global markets, high-frequency trading firms, market makers, and institutional traders provide the bulk of this liquidity. Their algorithms process information in microseconds, reacting to changes across global exchanges — from New York to London to Tokyo — creating an interconnected trading ecosystem.
1.4 Speculation and Price Stabilization
While speculation is often criticized, it plays a vital role in price stability. Speculators take positions based on their forecasts of market movements, which often correct price distortions caused by temporary imbalances in supply and demand.
For instance, if a drought threatens wheat production, speculators may buy wheat futures, pushing prices up early. This incentivizes farmers to produce more and consumers to conserve, helping balance the market over time. Thus, traders indirectly contribute to long-term equilibrium through their speculative actions.
2. The Role of Investors in Global Trading
2.1 Capital Allocation and Global Growth
Investors — including individuals, institutions, and sovereign wealth funds — play a foundational role by providing the capital that fuels global trade and development. Their investment decisions determine which countries, industries, and companies receive funding to expand production, improve infrastructure, and innovate.
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), portfolio investment, and venture capital flows are all forms of global investment that bridge financial gaps between nations. For developing economies, such inflows bring not just capital but also technology, expertise, and access to international markets.
For example, investors in emerging markets like India or Vietnam help create factories, logistics hubs, and export-oriented industries that become integral parts of the global supply chain.
2.2 Long-Term Stability and Confidence
While traders focus on short-term movements, investors typically adopt a long-term outlook. Their steady commitment provides stability and confidence to global markets. Institutional investors like pension funds, mutual funds, and insurance companies deploy capital over years or decades, allowing businesses to plan for sustainable growth.
Moreover, investors’ willingness to hold assets across economic cycles smooths out market volatility and helps economies recover from downturns. For instance, during global recessions, sovereign and institutional investors often continue to fund key projects, preventing total collapse in economic activity.
2.3 Portfolio Diversification and Global Integration
Global investors diversify across countries and asset classes to spread risk and enhance returns. This diversification links markets together — a movement in one region can now affect investment sentiment worldwide.
For example:
A slowdown in China can influence global commodity prices and stock markets.
A rise in U.S. interest rates can trigger capital outflows from emerging markets.
Thus, global investors not only connect financial systems but also transmit economic signals, influencing policymaking and business strategies worldwide.
2.4 Corporate Governance and Ethical Standards
Investors today increasingly focus on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) principles. By choosing where to allocate capital, they exert influence over corporate behavior, encouraging transparency, sustainability, and ethical conduct.
Large institutional investors such as BlackRock or Norway’s sovereign wealth fund use their ownership stakes to push companies toward sustainable practices. In this way, investors act as guardians of global corporate responsibility, ensuring that profits are balanced with long-term social and environmental well-being.
3. The Role of Policymakers in Global Trading
3.1 Creating a Legal and Regulatory Framework
Policymakers — including governments, central banks, and international organizations — set the rules of the global trading system. Their policies determine tariffs, taxes, capital controls, interest rates, and trade agreements.
Without effective policymaking, global markets could descend into chaos. Laws governing intellectual property, labor rights, dispute resolution, and customs procedures ensure fairness and predictability. Institutions such as the World Trade Organization (WTO), International Monetary Fund (IMF), and World Bank coordinate policies among nations to maintain a level playing field.
3.2 Trade Agreements and Economic Diplomacy
One of the key policymaking roles is negotiating trade agreements that define how countries exchange goods and services. Bilateral and multilateral pacts such as the European Union (EU), North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), or Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) facilitate cross-border commerce.
Through diplomacy, policymakers open new markets, remove barriers, and harmonize standards. These agreements also provide dispute-resolution mechanisms that reduce uncertainty for traders and investors, making global trade smoother and more predictable.
3.3 Monetary and Fiscal Policies
Global trading is deeply influenced by monetary and fiscal policies. Central banks manage interest rates, currency supply, and inflation — all of which affect exchange rates and investment flows. For example:
When the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the U.S. dollar strengthens, making imports cheaper and exports less competitive.
Fiscal policies like tax incentives or export subsidies can promote certain industries, shaping trade patterns.
Policymakers must balance domestic goals (such as employment and inflation control) with global competitiveness, ensuring their economies remain resilient in a fluctuating global environment.
3.4 Crisis Management and Market Stabilization
During periods of global crisis — such as financial collapses, pandemics, or wars — policymakers play a stabilizing role. They coordinate interventions like stimulus packages, bailouts, and monetary easing to restore confidence and liquidity in markets.
For instance, during the 2008 global financial crisis, coordinated actions by central banks and governments prevented a deeper economic collapse. Similarly, during the COVID-19 pandemic, massive fiscal and monetary responses helped maintain global trade flows and investment levels despite severe disruptions.
4. Interconnection Between Traders, Investors, and Policymakers
4.1 A Symbiotic Relationship
While their roles differ, traders, investors, and policymakers form a mutually dependent ecosystem.
Traders provide liquidity and efficiency that attract investors.
Investors supply the capital that drives global growth and trade volume.
Policymakers set the structure within which both can operate securely.
For example, a trader may profit from short-term movements created by new policy announcements, while investors adjust long-term strategies based on those same signals. Policymakers, in turn, analyze market reactions to gauge the effectiveness of their decisions.
4.2 Feedback Loops and Global Impact
The actions of one group often influence the others in a feedback loop:
If policymakers tighten monetary policy, investors may withdraw funds, leading traders to adjust their positions.
If traders detect currency instability, policymakers may intervene to stabilize exchange rates.
Investor confidence, reflected in capital inflows or outflows, often guides future policy decisions.
This constant interplay ensures that global trade remains dynamic and adaptive, capable of responding to new challenges and opportunities.
5. Challenges and Future Outlook
5.1 Technological Disruption
The rise of AI-driven trading, blockchain, and digital currencies is reshaping the roles of traders and investors. Algorithms now execute billions of trades daily, while decentralized finance (DeFi) is bypassing traditional intermediaries. Policymakers are challenged to keep pace with this rapid innovation while ensuring transparency and stability.
5.2 Geopolitical Tensions and Protectionism
Trade wars, sanctions, and regional conflicts can disrupt global supply chains. Policymakers must balance national interests with global cooperation. Traders and investors, in turn, must adapt to shifting regulations, tariffs, and political risks — making flexibility and diversification more critical than ever.
5.3 Sustainable and Inclusive Growth
The global trading system is under pressure to become more sustainable and inclusive. Investors are pushing for green finance; policymakers are designing carbon-neutral trade policies; and traders are exploring ethical sourcing. The collaboration between these three groups will determine whether global trade can evolve into a system that benefits both people and the planet.
Conclusion
The story of global trading is not just about goods, currencies, or capital — it’s about the interaction of human decisions across borders and markets. Traders bring liquidity and efficiency; investors provide capital and confidence; and policymakers ensure order and fairness.
Together, they form the three pillars of the global economic structure. Their coordinated actions determine how wealth is created, distributed, and sustained across nations. In an era of technological transformation and geopolitical complexity, their collaboration will be essential for building a resilient, equitable, and sustainable global trading system.
Bigger Market Correction ahead??? We can see a bigger correction in markets???
Its a nice probability. Its that happened could be a great opportunity to longs entry before we can see a new leg up in markets until the Q2-Q3 2026 for the end of 5 or 6 years current liquidity cycle .
Then we can spect the beggining of the bigger bear market that we ever see in our times. (nobody know's)
This its not finantial advice, just a trading idea for entertaiment and educational porpuose, dont follow this idea! Keep your owns idea in play , do your own reaserch and manage properly your money. The markets have bigger risks escenarios right now.
$SPX $ES_F SUPERTREND is an indicator you should learnSP:SPX $ES_F SUPERTREND is definitely an indicator you should learn how to use.
What's funny is it doesn't act the way you likely originally think it works, so learning to read it well can give you a huge edge. Look at where we got smacked down today, right at supertrend. We got the signal Friday, moved up to it yesterday, tested it today and got smacked down.
So beautiful!! So if you have Super trend and the 35EMA you have everything you need. For ES Traders you should be checking these levels on Regular Trading hours not Electronic, once in a while.
SPX : Remember what I wrote on 14 Jul 2025Long ago, I put up this chart.
Thanks to Trump, it is finally a reality.
Price has nowhere else to go but DOWN.
This is the kind of MONEY you can make by being patient.
Good luck.
DJI and SPX ---- ;-)
SPX500 Local Short!
HI,Traders !
#SPX500 made a nice
Bullish move up and
made a retest of
The horizontal resistance
Level of 6750.77 from where
We are already seeing a bearish
Reaction and so we will be
Expecting a further move down !
Comment and subscribe to help us grow !
SPX Pulls Back Hard — Testing Channel Support After Trade ShockPost:
SPX saw a sharp reversal after Trump’s renewed tariff threats on China, sparking a broad risk-off move. The index broke sharply from the upper channel, tagging the 21-day EMA and now sitting right on a minor key level within the ascending channel.
Momentum clearly flipped short-term, but the question now is whether there’s enough downside energy to break through both this key level and the channel’s lower boundary — a move that would shift structure from controlled pullback to confirmed trend break.
Key Levels:
• 6,535–6,550: Minor key level + channel support
• 6,750–6,780: Prior rejection zone
• 6,200: Major support if channel breaks
Focus: Watch for confirmation — either buyers step in at channel support, or momentum extends into a deeper structural break.
Grandaddy of them all shows rough ride aheadI decided to a big picture perspective SPX as it can sometimes be the clearest and most simple view. Not often do I come across a more valid (looking) setup. As you can see, this chart involves a whopping 140 year up-trending channel with a smaller pink channel within close to the upper bound. Both of which, current price action has just stepped above on the monthly chart. I believe this to be a blow off top that will be short lived. I'm not saying it can't spike a little higher or go sideways for a bit but this seems to be hitting hard resistance. It appears that it might be soon time to consider a short position for a protracted bear market. I know it seems impossible but technically price should, at some point, cross the lower black line. When we overlay fib retracements starting from the 1932 swing low to historical high, .236 lands right at the major support level just below 1600. Yes 1600. This is the first fib line and major support below the lower trend line. And when you examine the other retracement lines they all line up with significant support/resistance levels. I see this as confirmation of the entire bearish scenario to come. I think we are looking at a bumpy ride ahead if not a crash. I drew the blue trend line in as well, since it seems notable, and will be taking it into consideration also on the way down. Unfortunately you don't get a hundred year uptrend without some serious chart damage eventually. With valuations in nosebleed territory and the current geopolitical carnival in process, not to mention the numbers games being played in the financial data realm, would anyone be surprised if a big black swan came swooping in?!
S&P 500 & the Presidential Cycle: Bear Market in 2026?The U.S. presidential cycle is a cyclical approach to the stock market suggesting that S&P 500 performance tends to follow a recurring pattern over the four years of a presidential term. This cycle reflects the relationship between political decisions, fiscal and monetary policy, and investor psychology.
Historically, the first year of the term (post-election) is marked by economic and fiscal adjustments, often accompanied by moderate gains. The second year, known as the “midterm year,” is usually more hesitant: markets tend to be volatile amid political uncertainty and potential unpopular reforms.
This second year of the presidential cycle is typically the weakest of the four and the most prone to a significant S&P 500 consolidation — corresponding in our case to the year 2026.
In contrast, the third year of the term almost always stands out as the most favorable for equities, as the administration seeks to boost growth ahead of the next election campaign, often through more accommodative fiscal or monetary measures. Finally, the fourth (election) year tends to remain positive on average, although performance often flattens as electoral uncertainty increases.
From this perspective, 2026 will mark the second year of Donald Trump’s presidential cycle — traditionally the most fragile for equity markets. From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 has recently reached major resistance zones near its historical highs after a strong post-election rally. Several momentum indicators now show signs of exhaustion, while Shiller’s P/E ratio stands at historically elevated levels, indicating stretched valuations.
In this context, it is plausible that 2026 will bring a phase of consolidation for the S&P 500, or even a more pronounced correction. Institutional investors may adopt a more cautious stance, awaiting greater clarity on fiscal trajectories, Federal Reserve rate policy, and the impact of new government measures. This cooling phase would be natural after several years of sustained growth and could form a healthy foundation for the next bullish impulse, traditionally observed ahead of the pre-election year — 2027.
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SPX500 Trading Strategy Explained: From Entry to Exit⚡ SPX500 “STANDARD & POOR” Indices Market Wealth Strategy Map ⚡
(Swing / Day Trade Plan – Thief OG Style)
🧭 Plan
📈 Bias: Bullish confirmed with 30m LSMA pullback + 0.786 Fibonacci-based MA confluence.
💡 Entry Approach (Thief Layering Strategy™):
Instead of one-shot entry, I place multiple buy-limit layers to average into strength. Example setup:
Buy limit: 6600
Buy limit: 6620
Buy limit: 6640
👉 You can extend or adjust the layering based on your own strategy.
🎯 Stop Loss (SL)
This is my Thief SL @6560.
⚠️ Note to Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s): This SL is not a recommendation. Use your own judgment — protect your loot at your own risk.
💰 Target (TP)
📌 6750 — sitting at strong resistance + overbought zone + possible bull-trap.
⚠️ Again, OG’s — this is not financial advice. Take profit when it fits your plan. Secure the bag, then enjoy the loot!
🔍 Related Pairs to Watch
Keep an eye on these correlated assets to confirm the SPX500’s move:
NASDAQ:NDX (Nasdaq 100): Tech-heavy index with strong correlation to SPX500. If tech stocks are pumping, it’s a bullish signal for our trade. 📊
TVC:DXY (US Dollar Index): A weaker dollar often boosts equities. Watch for inverse correlation—DXY dropping could mean SPX500 is ready to fly! 🚀
TVC:VIX (Volatility Index): Low VIX levels signal market calm, supporting our bullish setup. A spike in VIX could warn of trouble, so stay sharp! ⚡
Key Correlation Insight: SPX500 often moves in tandem with NASDAQ:NDX due to shared tech giants (think Apple, Microsoft). If NASDAQ:NDX is rallying, it’s a tailwind for our trade. Conversely, a rising TVC:DXY or TVC:VIX could signal caution.
📝 Thief Note
Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s):
This map is my personal swing/day trade playbook — not a fixed recommendation. Layer entries, cut losers fast, and loot when you can. Market moves are wild; manage risk like a true OG.
✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a Thief-style trading strategy shared just for fun & educational vibes. Not financial advice. DYOR & trade responsibly.
The next markets move will be agrresive, crypto will follow!SPX6300 then massive rally 5 months in a row, then crash to Trump's "buy now" low.
Nov-DEC-Jan-Feb-March will be green.
SPX Technical Levels to watchSPX (S&P 500) Technical Levels Quick Breakdown
Current Price: 6,552.51 (as of Oct 10, 2025 close, down 2.71%; futures suggest mild rebound at Oct 11 open).
Key Levels (Classic Pivots):
Support: S1 $6,576 | S2 $6,562 (watch for breakdown below S2 toward $6,500).
Resistance: R1 $6,613 | R2 $6,637 (clearing R1 eyes $6,700 round number).
Pivot: $6,600 (neutral gravity point).
Key Indicators (Daily Timeframe):
RSI(14): 18.6 (deeply oversold—potential bounce setup above 30).
MACD(12,26): -34.8 (strong sell signal, bearish momentum).
Moving Averages: All sell (e.g., 5-day SMA $6,602; 50-day $6,717; 200-day $6,619—price well below, confirming downtrend).
Overall: Strong sell across MAs and indicators, but oversold RSI flags exhaustion risk for a relief rally. Watch volume on any upside push.
SPX : How to play this DPrice has now reached our target as anticipated. The question is, when do we SELL?
Anyway, for those who follow the D, I am sure it has saved you guys a lot of trouble. At least you know where/when to start SELLING. Many others who started selling EARLy had all lost their money.
As we can see, there are 3 D's. Price can still move UP to 6,800. Bear that in mind. Or has already reached the max at 6,291!!!
Price is at where they are, there are 2 choices:
a) SELL now and SL @ 6,300
b) SELL when price touched the lower D @ 6,140 with SL @ 6,291
Whichever way, the R/R is still FANTASTIC.
It is true that MARKET MAKER might still take advantage and try to screw short sellers. But even they would find it hard at the D. For even they need to respect it a bit.
If you know your D, you trade safer.
Good luck.
Today Fundamental Analysis Confirmed my Technical AnalysisSee my previous post where I stated that we were getting rejected the triple top was confirming the market was rolling over at least in the short term. Today Trump stating that China was becoming openly hostile caused a sell off. But the tape was telling the tale before it happened.
