USD cpi yr/yr forecast of 2.8 looks too high for tomorrowBased upon the price of oil, the recent trend of CPI readings, and the 10 yr avg of 2.68 USD cpi reading may come in as a market miss tomorrow. The expected 2.8 looks to high relative to the trend of readings and the price of oil. It might be fair to expect a range of 2.4 to 2.7.
US500.F trade ideas
SPX500
Based on the provided 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX500), here is a brief summary and outlook.
The SPX500 has been in a clear uptrend, as indicated by the trend channel and a series of higher highs and higher lows. The price is currently facing resistance near the 6,450 level, where a recent high was made before a pullback. The chart also highlights several key support zones, with the most immediate one being around the 6,290 level.
The chart illustrates a potential scenario where the price consolidates or pulls back from the current resistance. The orange arrow depicts a possible movement where the price could retrace towards the immediate support level around 6,290 before finding buyers. From this support, the expectation is for the uptrend to resume, with the price aiming to break through the resistance at 6,450. A successful breakout would open the path towards the upper boundary of the trend channel, with a target set around 6,600.
The key expectation is a continuation of the overall bullish trend after a potential short-term dip. Traders should look for the price to hold above the support at 6,290 for a long entry opportunity. A break below this support would be a bearish signal, but as long as the price stays within the trend channel, the overall bias remains bullish. The final target for this move is projected to be around the 6,600 level, which aligns with the trend channel's upper boundary.
S&P500 Channel Up going straight to 6670.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a 3-month Channel Up since the May 12 candle. All of this time, it has been supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and as long as it holds, the new Bullish Leg is expected.
The last two rose by +7.06%, and ahead of a new 1D MACD Bullish Cross, that gives us a medium-term Target of 6670.
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Are you loosing money?....... Please Read.I’ve shared this chart previously, but I’ve just given it another update.........
This is pure simplicity. If the price is above the moving averages, it's a good opportunity to trade. Did it close under any moving average? Step back and wait.
Stop trying to call tops or bottoms. Stop day trading crypto and FX. Stop attempting to master Elliot wave theory or ICT.
Concentrate on a single market, US stocks, align with the trend, and capitalise on a tested advantage. STOCKS WANT TO GO UP!!!!!!
Another advantage- Utilise a tax-advantaged account (IRA, ISA), try spread betting, or leverage an ETP (like 5xSPY).
Keep it simple, follow the trend. It does'nt have to be complicated.
SPX500 | Holding Above Key Pivot – Path to New ATH or Pullback?SPX500 Overview
S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% early Monday, with traders preparing for a week filled with key economic events. While tariff concerns remain in the background, market focus is firmly on upcoming U.S. inflation and retail sales data.
Technical Outlook:
The price has stabilized above 6389, indicating the potential for the bullish trend to extend toward 6425. A breakout above this level could lead to a new all-time high.
Conversely, a 1H close below 6389 would signal a potential bearish move toward 6365.
Resistance: 6413, 6425, 6442
Support: 6365, 6341, 6321
SPX: awaits inflation data Regardless of concerns regarding the future effects of implemented trade tariffs by the U.S. Administration, the positive sentiment continued to hold on the U.S. equity markets during the previous week. The S&P 500 closed the week at the level of 6.389, surging by 2,4% for the week. The index is slowly nearing its all time highest level, achieved on 31st July, at the level of 6.426.
Friday's rally was for one more time led by tech companies. Shares of Apple gained around 13% for the week, after the company announced its significant investments of $600B within the next four years in the U.S. Analysts are calling this deal as “appease” to the U.S. President, who on several occasions expressed his wish that IPhones are made in the U.S.A. As per comments made by Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, “the final assembly that you focus on, that will be elsewhere for a while”, meaning that the production of IPhones is still not going to be done in the U.S.A. Nevertheless, markets reacted positively to Cook's meeting with the U.S. President, especially taking into account a heavy burden of tariffs, which the U.S. President announced to be 100% on chip imports.
Considering current market sensitivity on inflation data, the week ahead might bring some major testing for the U.S. equity markets, as July inflation data are scheduled for a release. Analysts are noting that any surprises in the inflation figures might imply a correction in the value of US companies, especially after a significant surge during the last four months.
$SPX All Time High’s in view // Last Friday review
Ok, this is a review of last Friday’s price action from the setup provided in the member video. We opened with a gap up and a rally to the top of the implied move. We actually took it to the top of the 30 day average volatility, which rounded out was 6390
So 6390/6400 bear call spreads paid.
ATH’s not to far away here.
Dot Com Crash CorrelationThe following is a fractal of the lead up to the Dot Com crash, and the aftermath. It correlates extremely well with the current landscape. The TLDR is that if history repeats and we break the trendline, we'll form a blow off top in 2026 and crash spectacularly in 2027 (I'm guessing around May, a common dump month). If everyone is calling for the crash now, it means it's not over yet.
It's time to face the music. AI isn't profitable, it's an excuse to fire workers with high salaries. When there is no one left to fire and productivity/quality drops the answer will be clear: A program that is wrong 20% of the time is completely useless. The errors are a feature, not a bug, the AI can not work without hallucinating and hallucinating causes errors. Look it up if you don't believe me
Fundamentals:
-Rate cuts will keep this alive long enough to form a blow off top
-Extreme uncertainty from tariffs to manufacturing can account for that mid term drop
-AI Companies holding up the market make 0 net profit and have no realistic plans to make ROI
-The vast majority of AI companies have not made ROI
-Generative AI costs more to run than it makes. By their own very flawed estimate, OpenAI will take over 10 years to break even. In related news, snapchat just made ROI and they were founded in 2011, their stock is down 90%.
Big CorrectionThe S&P index.
The chart shows the potential end of the final rally from the 2009 low.
Currently, with this rally from the recent 4,800 low, we are still in a correction period that will end in late October (highs and lows are irrelevant), & We have a date coming up in August so let's see what happens there.
After this period, we will have a rally combined with uncertainty and unjustified speculative movements (bubble) that could take us to the final peak, which I expect in 2026.
This remains a possibility, but don't base your trades on it. However, caution is often good.
SPX500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISSPX500 has broken above the recent range, reclaiming the 6,351.41 resistance. Price is now pushing into the 6,380.00 zone, with buyers showing control after a strong recovery from the 6,222.46 low.
Support at: 6,351.41 🔽 | 6,324.08 | 6,296.93
Resistance at: 6,380.00 🔼 | 6,409.21 | 6,438.44
🔎 Bias:
🔼 Bullish: Sustained trading above 6,351.41 opens the door toward 6,409.21 and higher.
🔽 Bearish: A close back below 6,351.41 may trigger a retest of 6,324.08 and 6,296.93.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
S&P Fibonacci based Accumulation/Distribution rangesFibonacci-Based Zones: The chart is structured around support and resistance zones derived from Fibonacci analysis, providing natural levels for market reaction.
Accumulation Zone: Lower price area (~4,133.94 and above) where buyers show interest and trend reversal is often seeded.
Trading Range: The broad mid-section where price is expected to oscillate, indicating indecision or equilibrium among buyers and sellers.
Distribution Zone: Upper price band near the Goldman Sachs 2025 target, as marked, where profit-taking and seller interest increases.
Potential for Parabolic Move: If price decisively breaks out above the distribution/resistance zone, it could trigger rapid, euphoric buying—a classic market melt-up.
Risk of Downside: Falling below the key Fibonacci support level could prompt a sharp correction,.
Historical Validation: Past price movements respect these zones.
Warning: SPX500 May Have Peaked—Here’s What the Charts SayThe S&P 500 (SPX500) may have reached its peak. In this video, I reveal the technical evidence pointing to a potential reversal—including monthly bearish divergence, daily and weekly reversal candles, and confirmation from key indicators.
This isn’t just noise—these signals align across timeframes, suggesting a shift in momentum that could lead to significant downside. I’ll walk you through the charts, explain the implications for traders and investors, and highlight critical support levels to watch.
Thank you for watching and have a great trading week. Cheers!!
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of August 8, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the trading activity of the previous week, the S&P 500 Index exhibited a predominantly bullish trend and is poised to retest the completed Outer Index Rally target of 6420, as outlined in last week’s Daily Chart Analysis. The primary objective now is to target subsequent levels, specifically the next Outer Index Rally target of 6620 and beyond.
It is crucial to recognize that the current price movement may initiate a substantial pullback from the present price action, either before or following the attainment of the Outer Index Rally peak at 6420.
Watching July 31 High and August 1 Low - Key LevelsUS Inflation Next Week (CPI and PPI)
Will August re-test highs with momentum? Or test and fade?
MAGS back to highs.
AAPL has one of the best weeks since 2020's post covid crash recovery (WILD).
I still like long assets, but playing the game with discipline and patience.
Enjoy the weekend. Looking forward to the grind next week.
Thanks for watching!!!
-Chris
S&PS&P 500 waiting for overbought of 240 min. If it pass 6427 net resistance is about 6615. at this resistance there is a chance to drop 1 oversold of timeframe 240 min. however, it is on a long up trend, which the mid period target is 6952 (2-4 months). however, during this period it may go direcly to 6952 or down for 1 oversold of timeframe day or 240 min is OK. Note that the very importance supporting line,which should not be lower is at 4841. if it not fall below this point. S&P still on the uptrend.