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U.S. DOLLAR / AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR REFERENCE RATE

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AUD USD long: 0.6470Following Friday's NFP data, calls for FED rate cuts are still in the air. And I agree with an ING article suggesting USD strength can be sold. Combined with just published 'higher than forecast' AUD service PMI data. I think AUD USD long is worth a go. It's a 12 pip stop loss with 18 pip profit target up to recent highs. The risk to the trade is Chinese data or simply USD strength. If the trade is ongoing, I will make a decision tomorrow whether to 'hold' the trade through US ISM data.
Long
by johnelfedforexblog
AUD/USDThis analysis is based on a combination of volume analysis, Fibonacci retracement levels, and Stochastic oscillator signals to find an optimal entry point. The trade setup suggests a potential bullish move after confirming support and momentum alignment. Entry: 0.6475 area Stop-Loss: 0.6465 area Take-Profit: 0.6498 area This setup aims to capitalize on a high-probability bounce within a key Fibonacci zone, confirmed by volume strength and oversold readings on the Stochastic indicator. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trading involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research and use proper risk management.
Long
by alisardari
Australia inflation gauge hits 20-month high, Aussie gains grounThe Australian dollar has extended its gains on Monday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6483 up 0.22% on the day. The US dollar made inroads last week against all the major currencies except the yen and gained 1.5% against the Australian dollar. Australia's Melbourne Institute inflation guage soared 0.9% m/m in July, up sharply from 0.1% in June and marking the highest rise since Dec. 2023. The MI gauge, which provides a monthly guide to consumer inflation (official CPI is published quarterly), will no doubt raise concerns at the Reserve Bank of Australia, which has been cautious about cutting rates due to inflation worries. Last week, CPI for the second quarter eased to 1.9%, down from 2.2% in Q1 and just below the central bank's target of 2%-3%. This cements a rate cut at the Aug. 12 meeting, after the RBA shocked the markets last month when it held rates. The markets had widely priced in a rate cut but the RBA defended its non-move, saying it wanted to see additional inflation data. The week ended with a softer-than-expected US employment report. Nonfarm payrolls for July rose by only 73 thousand, missing the market estimate of 110 thousand. Adding to the bad news, the June and May reports were both revised sharply lower, down by a combined 258 thousand. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.2%, up from 4.1%. The weak July reading and the downward revisions indicate that the labor market may be cooling more quickly than initially anticipated. The weak numbers support the case for the Fed to lower interest rates at the next rate meeting in September. The likelihood of a cut has climbed to 75%, compared to 63% on Thursday. The soft jobs report should serve as a wake-up call regarding the effect of US tariffs on the economy, as the employment picture is worse than previously thought.
by OANDA
AUDUSD key support at 0.6420Trend Overview: The AUDUSD currency price remains in a bullish trend, characterised by higher highs and higher lows. The recent intraday price action is forming a continuation consolidation pattern, suggesting a potential pause before a renewed move higher. Key Technical Levels: Support: 0.6420 (primary pivot), followed by 0.6400 and 0.6370 Resistance: 0.6560 (initial), then 0.6590 and 0.6620 Technical Outlook: A pullback to the 0.6420 level, which aligns with the previous consolidation zone, could act as a platform for renewed buying interest. A confirmed bounce from this support may trigger a continuation toward the next resistance levels at 0.6560, 0.6590, and ultimately 0.6620. Conversely, a daily close below 0.6420 would suggest weakening bullish momentum. This scenario would shift the bias to bearish in the short term, potentially targeting 0.6400 and 0.6370 as downside levels. Conclusion: AUDUSD maintains a bullish structure while trading above the 0.6420 support. A bounce from this level would validate the consolidation as a continuation pattern. The loss of this level and a daily close below would suggest deeper corrective risk. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
AUDUSD – Sell Into Resistance at 0.6510Trade Idea Type: Sell Limit Entry: 0.6510 Target: 0.6430 Stop Loss: 0.6530 Duration: Intraday Expires: 05/08/2025 06:00 Technical Overview Medium-term bias remains bearish despite recent intraday volatility. A temporary move higher is anticipated, offering a setup to sell into strength. Bespoke resistance at 0.6510 provides a strategic entry level for short positions. The trade targets a move toward 0.6430, with potential support seen just below. Key Technical Levels Resistance: 0.6500 / 0.6530 / 0.6560 Support: 0.6440 / 0.6420 / 0.6400 Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by Signal_Centre1
AUDUSD – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | W32 | D4 | Y25📊 AUDUSD – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | W32 | D4 | Y25 Daily Forecast 🔍📅 Here’s a short diagnosis of the current chart setup 🧠📈 Higher time frame order blocks have been identified — these are our patient points of interest 🎯🧭. It’s crucial to wait for a confirmed break of structure 🧱✅ before forming a directional bias. This keeps us disciplined and aligned with what price action is truly telling us. 📈 Risk Management Protocols 🔑 Core principles: Max 1% risk per trade Only execute at pre-identified levels Use alerts, not emotion Stick to your RR plan — minimum 1:2 🧠 You’re not paid for how many trades you take, you’re paid for how well you manage risk. 🧠 Weekly FRGNT Insight "Trade what the market gives, not what your ego wants." Stay mechanical. Stay focused. Let the probabilities work. FX:AUDUSD
Short
by JCFRGNT
Ready for the Aussie Heist? Is This the Perfect Entry?🚨💰 - "The Aussie Vault Raid: Bullish Robbery in Progress!" 💰🚨 AUD/USD Forex Trade Idea (Thief Style Swing/Day Plan) 📈🔥 Designed for Thief Traders, Market Robbers & Money Makers Worldwide 🤑🐱‍👤💸 🌍 Hello Global Robbers! 🌟 Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Salaam! Konnichiwa! 🌟 Welcome to another bold heist plan from the Thief Trading Crew. This one’s a high-stakes raid on the AUD/USD — "The Aussie" — using our signature Thief Trading Style, combining raw technical setups with real macro/fundamental edge. We're eyeing the Bullish Vault Breakout, so tighten up your gloves — it’s time to rob smart, not hard. 🔓💸 ENTRY PLAN – “The Vault is Unlocked!” Grab the bullish loot at any valid price zone — but here’s how real thieves move: 📍 Recommended Entry Style: Use Buy Limit Orders near local swing lows, demand zones, or key pullback entries on the 15m to 30m chart. Execute DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) / Layered Orders for more precision. Align with your MA lines & candle structures for max confirmation. 🛑 STOP LOSS – “Escape Route Secured” 📍 SL hidden beneath recent swing lows below MA (on 4H): 🎯 Suggested Level: 0.64170 💡 Custom-fit your SL based on: Trade size Number of active positions Account risk strategy 🎯 PROFIT TARGET – “Cash Out Before the Cops Show!” 🏴‍☠️ Take-Profit Zone: 0.66400 This is our bullish breakout reward zone — a high-value zone where profit meets safety. 🔍 MARKET OUTLOOK – "Cops Are Watching, but We're Ahead..." 📈 The AUD/USD market is flashing bullish momentum, supported by: ✅ Risk sentiment flow ✅ US Dollar weakness and rate expectations ✅ Intermarket signals from commodities (Gold/Iron) ✅ Positive macro positioning from smart money (via COT) ✅ Technical demand forming reversal patterns from oversold zones 📎 For a deeper breakdown — 📰 Fundamentals | COT Reports | Sentiment | Intermarket Analysis — Check Klick 🔗 ⚠️ THIEF ALERT – “Avoid Sirens. Watch the News.” Stay out of trouble by following these protocols during major news events: 🚫 Don’t enter trades blindly before/after big news 📍 Use trailing stops to protect gains 🔄 Adjust SL/TP if price nears breakout points during volatility 💥 SUPPORT THE CREW – “Smash That Boost Button!” Love the plan? Then Boost this chart to show love for the Thief Trading Movement. Every like, comment, and boost adds power to our robbery network across the globe. 🌍❤️💰 ⚖️ DISCLAIMER – “Not Financial Advice, Just Thief Vibes” 📌 This analysis is for educational and entertainment purposes only. 📌 Trade at your own risk and always do your own analysis. 📌 Market moves fast — stay sharp, stay stealthy. **🎭 See you at the next heist. Until then, trade rich. Rob wise. Thief Trader out. 🐱‍👤💰📉📈**
Long
by The-Thief
AUSSIE H4 | Bullish riseAUD/USD has bounced off the buy entry at 0.6467, which is an overlap support, and could rise to the take-profit level. Stop is at 0.6423, which is a swing low support. Take profit is at 0.6541, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by Tradu
AUDUSD 4Hour TF - August 3rd,2025🟦 AUDUSD 4H Analysis Bearish Idea 📅 August 3, 2025 🔹 Top-Down Trend Bias: • Monthly – Bearish • Weekly – Bearish • Daily – Bearish • 4H – Bearish AUDUSD remains in a clear downtrend across all major timeframes. Current price action shows a corrective move off recent lows but all signs point to this being a temporary pullback, not a reversal. 🔍 Key Zone: 0.6485 – 0.6528 This zone aligns with the 61.8% fib retracement, and previous structure making it a high probability rejection area. ✅ Scenario A: Bearish Continuation (Blue Path) 1.If price taps into 0.6485–0.6525 and rejects 2.Look for bearish confirmation (engulfing, lower high, break of structure) Target 1: 0.6426 (previous low) Target 2: 0.6398 Extended Target: 0.6350 This is the trend following setup, most probable given full HTF alignment. ⚠️ Scenario B: Bullish Breakout (Orange Path) If price breaks and closes above 0.65000 1.Could signal short term shift with upside potential toward 0.6550 2.However, this is a counter-trend idea and lower probability unless higher timeframes begin shifting 🧠 Final Notes • Bias remains bearish until proven otherwise • Watch for confirmation at the fib/trendline confluence zone • Patience > prediction
Short
by ForexLeague
AUDUSD Correction in progress ▶️ AUDUSD has broken the green ascending channel that had been in progress since late April. ▶️ This break suggests wave 1/A likely concluded at 0.66250, supported by bearish RSI divergence on the high. ▶️ Retests of the bottom of the broken channel could offer short trade opportunities. ▶️ The initial high-probability target is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.63531, which aligns with the start of the ascending channel. ▶️ A secondary target is the 50% retracement level at 0.62691.
Short
by Stoic-Trader
AUD/USD Bearish Breakout – Retest & Sell Continuation SetupAUD/USD (Australian Dollar vs. US Dollar) Likely a 4H (4-hour) timeframe based on candlestick density and scale. --- 2. Structure & Patterns: Rising wedge/ascending channel: Already broken to the downside. Breakout zone: Around 0.6480–0.6500, clearly marked and now acting as resistance. Retest confirmed: Price returned to the broken zone, touched resistance, and dropped. Ichimoku Cloud: Price is below the cloud → strong bearish signal. Downward projection: You’ve drawn a possible bearish path with lower highs and lower lows. --- 3. Key Support & Target Levels: ✅ Current Price (as per chart): Around 0.6468 🎯 Target Points (as per your drawing): 1. First Target Point → 0.6400 This aligns with previous minor support. 2. Second Target Point → 0.6370 Likely based on a Fibonacci or historical support level. --- ✅ Clear Trade Setup Summary: Component Value Direction Sell (Short) Entry 0.6475–0.6485 Stop-Loss 0.6520 TP1 0.6400 TP2 0.6370 --- 📌 Conclusion: You are currently in a bearish setup after a breakdown from a rising structure. The market structure favors lower prices with clearly marked TP1 at 0.6400 and TP2 at 0.6370. Your entry zone (0.6475–0.6485) is technically sound, especially if there's a minor retracement. Let me know if you want: A Fibonacci analysis RSI/MACD confirmation
Short
by ALGO_Trading_point
3
AUDUSD: Bearish Continuation from broken supportThe current setup is a clean example of a trend continuation play. Price recently broke decisively below a structure zone, this break and retest now flips the narrative, what once was a buy zone is now an opportunity for short entries. Following the aggressive move down, price now began pulling back into that broken zone. The move appears corrective rather than impulsive, characterized by a slower, more rounded structure typical of pullback leg. This is classic behavior in continuation setups: fast drop, slow retrace, and then potential for the next leg lower. The projected move targets a retest of the swing low at 0.63800. That level is significant, it's a level where prior demand reacted strongly and now it serves as the next probable magnet for price. What makes this continuation trade high probability is the sharpness of the prior bearish impulse as it signals intent. The market seems to be in a controlled bearish sequence, where sellers dominate momentum and retracements offer fresh entries for trend followers. The structure and zone alignment all point in the same direction continuation lower, not reversal. Let me know in the comments what you think Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by TrendDiva
35
AUDUSD Technical & Order Flow AnalysisOur analysis is based on a multi-timeframe top-down approach and fundamental analysis. Based on our assessment, the price is expected to return to the monthly level. DISCLAIMER: This analysis may change at any time without notice and is solely intended to assist traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no obligation to act on it, nor should you. Please support our analysis with a boost or comment!
Short
by Derry_Trades
1
AUD/USDThis is a trade setup for AUD/USD, based on volume and trend analysis. Entry Price: 0.64230 Stop-Loss (SL): 0.64350 Take-Profit (TP): 0.64100 The trade is intended to be executed instantly at the mentioned price, in alignment with both volume behavior and the current trend direction. Disclaimer: This setup is shared purely for backtesting purposes and to document trade ideas. It is not financial advice. Always perform your own analysis before making any trading decisions.
Short
by alisardari
AUD/USDAUD/USD – Possible Correction Scenario Based on Volume Analysis This idea presents a potential correction in AUD/USD, based on recent volume behavior suggesting a shift in market sentiment. Following a strong move, volume has started to decline near the recent lows, hinting at possible seller exhaustion. This may open the path for a short-term bullish correction toward higher value areas. 📍 Entry: 0.64681 🎯 Target: 0.65050 🛑 Stop-loss: 0.64428 This is a possible scenario, not a guaranteed outcome. Always monitor price action and volume for confirmation. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately. Ask ChatGPT
Long
by alisardari
Could we see a further drop for the Aussie?The price has rejected off the pivot, which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support, which acts as a swing low support. Pivot: 0.6469 1st Support: 0.6372 1st Resistance: 0.6540 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
AUD/USD Rejected at Resistance-Fed on TapYesterday’s Fed-induced sell-off broke through the monthly opening-range lows / 52-week moving average with the bears now poised to mark a sixth-consecutive daily decline. It's worth noting that weekly momentum peaked at 60 on the April advance with RSI now poised to close back below 50. The observation suggests the broader downtrend remains intact and a pivot / break below slope support could mark trend resumption. Initial weekly support is eyed with the February high at 6408 and is backed by the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range / February high-week close (HWC) at 6354/57. A break / daily close below this region would be required to suggest that a more significant high is in place, potentially signaling a larger reversal underway. In such a scenario, the next downside objectives would be the yearly low-week close and 2023 low-close at 6291/96, followed by the 61.8% retracement and 2022 low-close at 6186–6201. Both of these zones are key areas of interest for potential downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached. Look for initial resistance back at the 52-week moving average (currently ~6460) with key resistance now seen back at the 61.8% retracement / yearly high-close at 6550/77. Note that the upper parallel converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and further highlights the technical significance of this zone. Ultimately a breach / weekly close above the 2021 trendline (red) would be needed to validate a breakout of the multi-year downtrend in Aussie. Bottom line: A reversal off downtrend resistance is now approaching initial support- risk for trend resumption heading into August. From a trading standpoint, the immediate focus is on the weekly close with respect to 6400- rallies should be limited to the 52-week moving average IF Aussie is heading lower on this stretch with a close below needed to keep the immediate short-bias viable heading into the monthly cross. Keep in mind we get the release of key US employment data tomorrow with Non-Farm Payrolls on tap. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close / August opening-range for guidance for guidance. -MB
by FOREXcom