AUDUSD 🔹 Fundamental & Macro Score Points Interest Rates: Australia at 3.60% (recent cuts easing economy); US steady at 4.75% (narrowing gap favors USD strength) → Score: -2/10 (USD edge) Inflation Rates: Australia at 2.10% YoY (cooling to target); US at 2.40% YoY (sticky, supports Fed hold) → Score: -1/10 (mild USD boost) GDP Growth: Australia +0.60% QoQ (weakest annual since 1990s); US +1.70% forecast (resilient) → Score: -3/10 (AUD drag from slowdown)
🔹 Seasonal Tendencies October historically neutral-mild bearish for AUD/USD (avg. -0.5% move, tied to commodity fades & US fiscal year-end) Pattern: Q4 weakness common (post-summer risk-off)
🔹 Bank Orders (COT Data as of Sep 16) Non-commercial net shorts rising (institutional bears at 82% dominance) Open Interest: High on shorts (banks piling USD longs, signaling downside bets)
🔹 Retail Traders Sentiment 82% short AUD/USD (bearish crowd) 18% long (contrarian buy signal if extremes hit)
🔹 Institutional Traders Outlook Net short positions dominant (large specs up shorts by 10k contracts) 65% bearish % (hedge funds favoring USD amid trade risks)
🔹 Investor Mood Measure Overall: Cautious (weak AUD jobs data + US-China tensions weigh)
🔹 Fear & Greed Index Forex/Equities at 47 (Neutral zone) Tilt: Mild Fear (VIX up, but no panic; watch for greed flip on data)
🔹 Overall Market Outlook Score Bear (Short) → Score: 35/100 (USD strength from rates/GDP; AUD vulnerable to China slowdown)
AUDUSD that's a setup to watch IF and its a BIG IF price mitigates the Supply zone, we could start looking for a reversal to take a quick short. but if not just leave the chat aone.
🔍 Analysis Approach: I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on: Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️ Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐 Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎 Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅
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Idea: The Amethyst Huntress //$AUDUS… Very pretty setup, this should be a textbook drop. It's exiting this weekly volume and it's under the 200 ema on this day chart, the 200 ema is strong.
It's also under the weekly trend line and we are at the end of the trading week. If this drop, keeping in mind anything can happen in the market, this would be a textbook drop. AUDUSD
AUDUSD 🔹 Fundamental & Macro Score Points
