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USDCAD trade ideas

Bullish rise?The Loonie (USD/CAD) could fall to the pivot and bounce to the 1st resistance, which acts as a swing high resistance. Pivot: 1.3828 1st Support: 1.3791 1st Resistance: 1.3918 Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
Applying the Nx BIAS indicator to USDCADAfter my latest thread about the 🛡️ Nx BIAS 🛡️ indicator for determining market bias, I decided to take a scalp trade as a backtesting exercise on the USDCAD pair. Entry details: Defined the DOL and Invalidation levels using the Nx Bias indicator on the 2Htimeframe. Identified the area of interest and executed the entry on the 5m - 1m timeframe for the same pair. Next steps and forward testing: I will be testing this indicator more extensively. The main goal is to rely solely on it for bias determination under live market conditions to evaluate its real-time performance, moving beyond backtesting results. Disclaimer: Do Your Own Research (DYOR). Best regards, Note: The indicator is not yet available and will be released soon under the name Nx Candle Bias.
Long
by mohx_404
USDCAD near breakdown zone; Bearish pressure buildsUSDCAD near breakdown zone; Bearish pressure builds On Sept. 11, USDCAD tested resistance at 1.3891–1.3904 but failed to break higher, reversing lower after U.S. jobless claims and CPI data. The pair now hovers near 1.38350–1.3840, supported by the 100-hour MA at 1.3859. This zone is key: holding above favors dip-buyers, while a break below 1.3812 would tilt bias bearish. By Sept. 12, the dollar edged higher after the prior day’s drop, as U.S. jobless claims jumped to a four-year high while inflation rose modestly. Markets remain focused on a Fed cut next week, with futures fully pricing a 25-bps move on Sept. 17 and reduced odds of a 50-bps cut.
Short
by ProfessorSingapore
USDCAD Double Top Signals a Potential BreakdownUSDCAD pair is testing a critical resistance area near 1.3830 after a strong rebound. But the price structure is beginning to flash signs of exhaustion. With repeated rejections and a clear double-top pattern forming, the setup favors a bearish move. If momentum turns, we could see a meaningful correction toward the 1.3730 support zone, with deeper downside risk into mid-September. Current Bias Bearish rejection at resistance, structure favors downside continuation. Key Fundamental Drivers Canada: Weak August jobs report (unemployment 7.1%, wages cooling) raised BoC cut expectations, pressuring CAD. But oil prices (Brent ~$65) limit the downside risk, giving CAD some commodity support. U.S.: Weaker jobs (+142k NFP, unemployment 4.3%) keeps Fed cuts on the table, capping USD upside. Core PCE sticky at 2.9%, but inflation trend is moderating. Macro Context Interest Rates: Fed expected to cut in coming months; BoC markets price ~90% chance of a September cut. Economic Growth: U.S. slowing but still resilient, Canada contracting (Q2 GDP −0.4% q/q). Commodities: Oil’s soft rebound provides CAD with some stability. Geopolitics: Trade tensions (U.S. tariffs, China-Russia bond coordination) keep USD supported as a defensive hedge. Primary Risk to the Trend A sharp oil sell-off would weaken CAD and trigger USD/CAD upside. U.S. CPI surprise to the upside could reprice Fed expectations, boosting USD. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event U.S. CPI (this week): Will decide Fed cut timing. BoC September rate decision: High probability of a cut, market focus on forward guidance. Leader/Lagger Dynamics USD/CAD is typically a lagger — following USD direction (via Fed expectations) and CAD flows (via oil). It often mirrors oil price action and diverges from USD/JPY, reflecting risk sentiment shifts. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.3732, 1.3585 Resistance Levels: 1.3830, 1.3875 Stop Loss (SL): 1.3875 Take Profit (TP): 1.3732 (first), 1.3585 (extended) Summary: Bias and Watchpoints USD/CAD is leaning bearish after failing to break cleanly above 1.3830. Fundamentals point to a tug-of-war between dovish BoC expectations and weaker U.S. data, but the chart structure favors downside into 1.3732 and potentially 1.3585. My stop loss sits above 1.3875 to protect against a breakout. Watch U.S. CPI as the key driver: a hotter print could revive USD strength, while a softer read could accelerate CAD gains. Oil’s stability remains a secondary but important factor for CAD resilience.
Short
by ultreosforex
1
USDCAD: Bullish For The Near Term?Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Sept 8 - 12th. In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: USDCAD Last Week I was looking for weakness in the USDCAD. It traded through the bearish FVG on the Daily, moving higher as the CAD turned out to be even weaker last week. Look for this to continue for the upcoming week, as there is internal range liquidity (IRL) drawing price higher for a short term gains. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Long
by RT_Money
1
USDCAD SELL OPPORTUNITYHello traders, volatility slowly coming back and we already are benefiting from interesting trade opportunities. New week means new opportunities Here's my point of view about CMCMARKETS:USDCAD TECHNICALLY: AS explained before the red area around 1.38500 was a make or break area. I was looking to see some action around that H4-DAILY KEY LEVEL SELL ZONE. Last week price totally rejected the zone and this week we are clearly seeing rejections. As long as we stay BELOW 1.38500 we can consider to look for SELL entries at pullback but only if fundamentals, confluences & confirmations align. This setup requires for US DOLLAR / DXY DXY TO BE WEAK. or CAD strong (which can be the case due to fundamentals). Otherwise, the area will be completely invalidated and we will have a deeper pullback/ retracement. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! MAKE SURE TO STAY STRICT WITH YOUR RISK MANAGEMENT! PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day.
Short
by AIRFOREXONE_
USDCAD Technical & Order Flow AnalysisOur analysis is based on a multi-timeframe top-down approach and fundamental analysis. Based on our assessment, the price is expected to return to the monthly level. DISCLAIMER: This analysis may change at any time without notice and is solely intended to assist traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no obligation to act on it, nor should you. Please support our analysis with a boost or comment!
Long
by Derry_Trades
Market Structure is Actually EASY- Hear me outUnderstanding Market Structure Through Arcs Market structure always seems simple when explained on YouTube. But open up a chart, and suddenly it feels puzzling, inconsistent, even frustrating. Imagine this: you’re analyzing the structure of a forex pair, confidently tracking highs and lows. Everything makes sense. Then you switch to a different pair—or even just a different date on the same chart—and suddenly it feels like your skill vanished. Yesterday you “understood” market structure, but today you don’t. So, what’s happening? The truth is, when this confusion sets in, it’s usually because you’re looking for the wrong signs. Traders often get caught up searching for zigzags, breaks of structure (BoS), market shifts, supply and demand zones, or liquidity sweeps. But the key to truly understanding market structure comes down to one core skill: identifying strong and weak structures. Redefining Market Structure Market structure is not simply a zigzag. It’s not just supply and demand. Market structure is a collection of structures that, when viewed together, naturally form zigzags, supply/demand areas, and BoS/market shift levels. And here’s the important part: not all structures are created equal. But don’t worry—you don’t need to memorize dozens of “types.” There are only two: strong structures and weak structures. How to Identify Structures This is where things get surprisingly simple. To identify structure, look for arcs. Yes—the charting tool no one ever uses. An arc represents price dipping and then returning to its prior high or low. • If price closes beyond the previous high/low, the structure is strong. • If price fails to break the previous high/low and closes within it, the structure is weak. That’s it. Look at the chart example provided—you’ll see how clear this becomes once you train your eye. The Red/Green arcs represent arcs that were identified on the D timeframe (HTF). The blue squiggly line represents a collection of arcs identified on the 4h timeframe (LTF). Multi-Timeframe Power Here’s where arcs become even more powerful. A structure on one timeframe (say, the 4H) is essentially a supply/demand zone. Drop down to a lower timeframe (4H → 1H), and that same structure becomes a full swing move. This allows you to navigate multiple timeframes seamlessly—simply by plotting structures on the higher timeframe. The Arc as the Foundation Once you learn to spot arcs, everything clicks into place. An arc is supply and demand. It is liquidity boundaries. It defines strong/weak highs and lows. It creates the zigzag. In short: structure identification is the only skill you need to master market structure—and it’s surprisingly quick to learn. Additional Notes • A valid arc requires at least three candles. Anything less is not structure. • Two candles may represent a reaction to supply/demand or a liquidity sweep, but they don’t form a structure. • Why? Because structure requires balance—a brief pause where price enters, slows, stabilizes, and then reverses. That balancing process cannot be captured in one or two candles. My Advice For now, set aside the broader concept of “market structure” and focus only on arcs. 1. Practice identifying arcs in live price action—don’t worry about backtesting yet. 2. Mark them on your chart, and classify them as strong or weak. 3. Once you’re comfortable spotting them, move into backtesting. Watch arcs unfold in motion. 4. With enough practice, you’ll be able to recognize them instantly and without hesitation. That’s when you return to market structure as a whole. With the skill of arc recognition in place, you’ll finally see how everything ties together—and your understanding will be unshakable. Previous Post; Complete Market Structure: Order Flow and Multiple Timeframes Although I felt that this was a great take on market structure, the indicator provided falls short in a sense that market it relies on alternating internal shifts, when in market structure shifts can happen consecutively instead of strictly alternating. I have developed a different tool that will help identify structural levels without missing a single arc. It is called Supply/Demand Zones (Synthetic SMA Candles). I will provide a link below. It identifies arcs and classifies them as supply/demand zones. It also provides alerts which can be helpful if you are the type of trader that likes to trade passively without being glued to the charts. Arc Identifying Indicator (Supply/Demand)
Education
by The_Forex_Steward
1
USDCAD bullish support at 1.3790The USDCAD remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend. Support Zone: 1.3790 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level. A bullish rebound from 1.3790 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at: 1.3930 – initial resistance 1.3960 – psychological and structural level 1.4000 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break and daily close below 1.3790 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward: 1.3755 – minor support 1.3730 – stronger support and potential demand zone Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact while the USDCAD holds above 1.3790. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
USDCAD Will Go Down From Resistance! Short! Here is our detailed technical review for USDCAD. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is on a crucial zone of supply 1.383. The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 1.373 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
Long trade Trade 2 Type: Buyside trade 2 Date: Thurs 18th Sept 25 Session: NY Session AM Entry: 1.34973 Profit level: 1.35273 (+0.20%) → 26.1 pips Stop level: 1.34947 (-0.05%) → 2.6 pips RR: 2.1 Narrative: Following the earlier stop-out, a second entry was executed after confirmation of bullish structure. The market engineered liquidity below intra-day lows before running back into a bullish order block aligned with the 15m FVG. Entry was timed to coincide with the NY AM open drive
Long
by davidjulien369
USDCAD SELL SETUP OPPORTUNITY IF PULLBACKHello traders I wish you a great WEDNESDAY, Here's my point of view about CMCMARKETS:USDCAD TECHNICALLY: HIGHER TIME FRAMES such as DAILY WEEKLY show a liquidity grab before a bearish momentum near the 2-3 previous weekly highs around the 1.38800. This liquidity grab was released last week on Thursday- Friday. Then price re-integrated and gave us a valid sell setup that was aligned with our strategy to sell at the H4 GAP RETEST. Right now, price is very over extended and we are all waiting for pullbacks. Either way, we all have to wait for FOMC to be released today & CAD rates released. This will invalidate or confirm our setup. Next target is the previous monthly low at 1.37250. I am interested to sell close the 1.3800O OR ABOVE THE PREVIOUS DAILY HIGH. FUNDAMENTALLY All eyes on today's FOMC! a change in the US DOLLAR SENTIMENT can invalidate the setup! However, if we stick with the same tone, then US will likely continue bearish! You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! MAKE SURE TO STAY STRICT WITH YOUR RISK MANAGEMENT! PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day.
Short
by AIRFOREXONE_