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U.S. DOLLAR / MXX

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USDMXN | 21.06.2025BUY 19.1500 | STOP 18.7500 | TAKE 19.7000 | The Bank of Mexico is expected to continue its rate easing cycle next week, despite recent reports on Mexican inflation suggesting risks are skewed to the upside. Inflation in May exceeded the bank's 3% target, raising concerns that the central bank will continue to cut rates. From a technical perspective, the price is moving upwards within a long-term channel in the medium term and is pushing away from the strong support level of 18.8200.
Long
by FXTradingOnLine
USD/MXN: Bearish Momentum Persists, Testing Key SupportUSD/MXN continues to grind lower, maintaining a persistent downtrend that has remained intact since mid-April. The pair is currently hovering near a short-term support area just above 19.00, with little sign of bullish reversal as of now. 🔍 Technical Breakdown Bearish Structure: Price remains below both the 50-day (19.63) and 200-day (20.02) SMAs, with both averages now pointing lower — confirming the strength of the ongoing bearish trend. Momentum Indicators: MACD remains firmly in negative territory with a persistent bearish histogram, suggesting downside momentum is not yet exhausted. RSI is approaching oversold levels, currently at 34. While not yet in extreme territory, it hints that the pair may be nearing a potential short-term pause or bounce. Support & Resistance: Price is testing a minor support zone around 19.00, with the next significant level lower coming in near 18.58, a level last seen in early Q3 2023. On the upside, initial resistance stands at the breakdown point near 19.49, followed by stronger resistance at the confluence of moving averages. ⚙️ Outlook USD/MXN is trading firmly within a well-defined downtrend, marked by lower highs and lower lows. As long as price remains below the 50-day SMA, the bias remains bearish. While the RSI suggests some caution is warranted as the pair approaches oversold conditions, there is no definitive bullish divergence or reversal pattern yet. If the current support gives way, bears could target deeper retracements. Conversely, a sustained rebound back above 19.49 would be needed to challenge the bearish structure. -MW
by FOREXcom
USDMXN: The Mexican Peso Continues to StrengthenOver the last four trading sessions, the USD/MXN pair has dropped more than 1.5% in favor of the Mexican peso as the U.S. dollar continues to weaken in the short term. The index that measures the strength of the U.S. dollar (DXY) remains consistently below the 100-point level, highlighting the broad weakness of the currency. This has, in part, allowed the current bullish bias of the Mexican peso to persist over the short term. Downtrend Remains Intact Since the early days of April, selling pressure has been strong enough to sustain a steady downtrend. However, as the price continues to fall, notable signs of neutrality have started to emerge, which could pave the way for short-term bullish corrections as bearish momentum begins to show signs of exhaustion. RSI Lower lows in USD/MXN and higher lows in the RSI have generated a bullish divergence in the short term, suggesting a persistent price imbalance and potential loss of bearish strength in recent sessions. This could open the door for buying corrections to materialize in the upcoming trading sessions. TRIX The TRIX line remains oscillating below the 0 level, indicating that the dominant bias over the past few weeks is still bearish. However, if the line continues to flatten, it may signal a possible pause in recent selling momentum. Key Levels to Watch: 19.24: A near-term indecision zone that may act as a barrier for potential buying corrections. 19.00: A key support level aligned with an important psychological zone. Price movement below this level could provide further room for the current bearish pattern to continue. 19.70: A critical resistance level, corresponding to the highest point of the past two months. A move back toward this area could signal the end of the current downtrend. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
by FOREXcom
USD/MXN Short Trade SetupA clean rejection is observed from the bearish order block zone between 19.27627 – 19.25936, aligning perfectly with a descending trendline resistance. Price has reacted to this premium level with clear signs of selling pressure. This setup offers a high-probability short opportunity with the entry positioned at 19.25930, targeting the next support zone near 19.20593. The stop is placed safely above the OB and structural high at 19.27747 to protect against liquidity sweeps. This trade aligns with recent price action confirming bearish intent at premium supply. 📍 Entry: 19.25930 🎯 Take Profit: 19.20593 🛑 Stop Loss: 19.27747 ⚖️ Risk-Reward: ~3R
Short
by PraveenTrader1
USD/MXN: The Mexican Peso Faces Strong NeutralityOver the last five trading sessions, USD/MXN fluctuations have shown a variation of barely 1%, indicating the emergence of sustained neutrality in the pair's recent moves. For now, the slight bearish bias in USD/MXN has managed to maintain a steady downward trend, as the Mexican peso benefits from short-term weakness in the U.S. dollar—as shown by the DXY index, which continues to trade below the 100-point mark, highlighting persistent weakness in the U.S. currency. Potential Downtrend: Since early April, bearish moves have begun to form a steady downtrend, bringing the price close to the 19 pesos per dollar level. So far, no significant bullish correction has reversed the current selling trend. However, it is important to note that the recent neutral tone could undermine the bearish bias of the past few months. If this neutrality continues, it could give way to a new phase of prolonged sideways trading in the short term. MACD: The MACD histogram has been hovering around the 0 line for several sessions, indicating that the moving averages are in a neutral zone, with no clear bullish or bearish dominance. If this pattern persists, the current neutrality could lead to a more defined consolidation range. RSI: The RSI line has started forming higher lows while USD/MXN prices have marked lower lows—resulting in a bullish divergence. This could signal room for potential upward corrections in the short term. Key Levels to Watch: 19.24 pesos per dollar: A current barrier where price action has shown strong neutrality; it could serve as a starting point for potential short-term bullish corrections. 19.70 pesos per dollar: A critical resistance at the highest level the pair has reached in recent weeks. Sustained bullish movement near this zone could mark the end of the prevailing downtrend. 19.00 pesos per dollar: A significant psychological support. Continued bearish moves approaching this level could revive the forgotten bearish sentiment and strengthen the current downtrend line. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
by FOREXcom
USD/MXN Eyes Breakdown Toward Key Support LevelsThe USD/MXN daily chart is displaying signs of continued weakness: Downtrend Intact: The pair trades firmly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing bearish control. MACD Bearish: Momentum remains to the downside with the MACD line below zero and the signal line. Key Support Zones: Price is approaching horizontal support at 19.07; a break could expose 18.58 as the next downside target. Resistance to Watch: Former support near 19.49 now acts as initial resistance. RSI Holding Lower: The RSI is drifting below 40, showing bearish momentum without reaching oversold territory. If the pair closes below 19.07, it may accelerate the bearish trend toward the 18.58 handle. -MW
by FOREXcom
USD/MXN Mirrors 2017 Reversal; Elliott Wave Pointing Lower Back in 2016–2017, we first saw a very sharp recovery on USD/MXN, but when Trump took office in January 2017, the market reversed strongly lower, falling all the way from 22 to 17.60, lost nearly 20% . That very similar pattern is now becoming visible again with 2024–2025 price action. Last year, after Trump won the US election, we saw significant depreciation of the Mexican peso, but since he has officially taken office in January, we’re seeing a complete reversal—just like in 2017. In fact, the Mexican peso has been gaining nicely over the past few months, likely based on speculation that Trump will find the agreement and trade deals with other countries, particularly related to tariffs. Since no one really benefits from trade wars, it’s not surprising that even Trump’s recent remarks reflect an acknowledgment of the global situation being unsustainable, especially when it comes to CHINA-US trade. With that in mind, markets in general are likely to recover, and we’re already seeing some nice rebounds. And when stocks are in recovery mode, commodity currencies—including the peso—tend to perform well. Looking at USD/MXN specifically, we’re seeing a strong reversal down from February highs, just like in 2017. The current drop hasn't even retraced 38.2% of the 2024 rally yet, which suggests more downside is likely—ideally toward the 19.00 area, maybe even 18.00 by year-end. From an Elliott Wave perspective, it's useful to zoom in on smaller time frames. The structure doesn’t look like completed impulse yet, so technically there can be more weakness coming. Resistance for wave four rally sits around the 19.77–19.84 zone, which aligns with Fibonacci projections for wave four, as well as swing lows from March and April. This area could serve as a nice resistance of the current bounce, especially if the Fed delivers any dovish remarks this week. No rate cuts are expected, but even a hint at future cuts could send the US yields lower, which would weigh on the dollar and support risk assets—meaning commodity currencies could outperform. In that case, USD/MXN could ideally fall back below 19.50. Elliott Wave analysis also helps define clear invalidation levels, very important when it comes to potential trade setups. In this scenario, 20.16 is a key level to watch. A break above it would overlap with the start of the current move and signal that the bears are finished for now, thus I would need to adjust the view accordingly. Grega
Short
by ew-forecast
3
USD/MXN Continues to Fall Below the 20 Pesos per Dollar LevelOver the past five trading sessions, the USD/MXN pair has declined by more than 2%, as the Mexican peso continues to gain ground against the U.S. dollar. This bullish trend in the peso is partly driven by the ongoing weakness in the U.S. dollar, as reflected in the DXY index, which has fallen to 99 points, its lowest level in the past year. The dollar’s weakness stems from the growing political and economic uncertainty generated by the global trade war, triggering a broad wave of dollar selling as capital exits the U.S. If this trend continues, the Mexican peso could maintain its bullish momentum in the short term. Lateral Range Breakout Since November 2024, USD/MXN had been trading within a sideways range, with resistance at 20.94 pesos per dollar and support at 20.00. In recent sessions, bearish pressure broke through this support, and as selling momentum builds, this could mark the start of a more meaningful downtrend. MACD The MACD histogram remains below the neutral zero line, indicating strong bearish momentum based on recent moving average trends. If the histogram continues to show deeper negative values, selling pressure could intensify further in the short term. RSI Currently, lower lows in price and higher lows in the RSI suggest the presence of a bullish divergence—an imbalance in recent selling momentum. This could create an opportunity for short-term bullish corrections to emerge. Key Levels to Watch: 20.33 pesos per dollar: A key resistance level, aligned with the 100-period moving average. A return to this area could reactivate the previous range. 20.00 pesos per dollar: Another important resistance, now acting as a potential retest zone after previously serving as support. This could be a target for short-term pullbacks. 19.33 pesos per dollar: A significant support level, aligned with the neutral zone from September 2024. A move toward this level could reinforce the consolidation of a consistent bearish trend in upcoming sessions. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
by FOREXcom
USD/MXN Outlook Mired by Failure to Test Yearly HighUSD/MXN is under pressure following the failed attempt to test the yearly high (21.2943). USD/MXN snaps the range bound price action from last week, and a move/close below the 19.8990 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 20.0120 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) zone may lead to a test of the monthly low (19.8362). Next area of interest comes in around the November low (19.7610), but USD/MXN may track the flattening slope in the 50-Day SMA (20.3418) should it struggle to close below the 19.8990 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 20.0120 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) zone. A move back above the 20.3200 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 20.4490 (50% Fibonacci extension) brings the 20.8850 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 21.0220 (50% Fibonacci retracement) region on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around the monthly high (21.0812). --- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist at FOREX.com
by FOREXcom
USD/MXN Rebound Stalls Ahead of March HighThe recent rebound in USD/MXN appears to be stalling ahead of the March high (20.9997) as it fails to extend the series of higher highs and lows carried over from last week. In turn, USD/MXN may consolidate over the coming days as it holds below the weekly high (20.5430), and a close below 20.3200 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) may push the exchange rate towards 20.0900 (100% Fibonacci extension). Next area of interest comes in around 19.8990 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement), but USD/MXN may further retrace the decline from the March high (20.9997) should it continue to hold above 20.3200 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). --- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist at FOREX.com
by FOREXcom