Copper and Oil: A Rare Divergence in the Commodity ComplexThe chart compares Copper (brown) and TVC:USOIL (blue) — two of the most cyclical commodities, both highly sensitive to global growth.
Historically, they tend to move in tandem: when economic momentum improves, both rise; when demand weakens, both fall.
But today we see an unusual divergence —
-Copper holding near multi-year highs, supported by structural deficits and energy transition demand.
-Oil trading below $60, its lowest since 2021, signaling cyclical slowdown and weak liquidity.
This gap rarely lasts long. Either copper is too optimistic, or oil is too pessimistic — one of them is likely “lying.”
Which one will be right this time?
Trade ideas
Oil market sentiment remains bearish near termOil market sentiment remains bearish near term
Oil prices slipped as supply glut fears and renewed U.S.–China trade tensions weighed on sentiment.
The IEA projected a potential 4 million bpd surplus in 2026, citing rising OPEC+ output and weak demand. Massive oil volumes in transit and storage are expected to reach key hubs soon, adding to oversupply pressure.
Trade friction between Washington and Beijing intensified after new tariff threats and export curbs, raising concerns over slower global growth and lower energy demand.
Analysts note that geopolitical risk has faded, shifting focus to inventory data. Traders await U.S. crude and gasoline stock reports due Oct. 15, with expectations of a 200,000-barrel rise in crude inventories and draws in fuel products.
Outlook:
Market sentiment remains bearish near term, with weak demand signals and high supply overshadowing minor geopolitical support.
WTI Crude Bearish continuation below resistance at 6030The WTI Crude Oil is currently trading with a bearish bias, aligned with the broader downward trend. Recent price action shows a retest of the longer term support, suggesting a temporary relief rally within the downtrend.
Key resistance is located at 6030, a prior consolidation zone. This level will be critical in determining the next directional move.
A bearish rejection from 6030 could confirm the resumption of the downtrend, targeting the next support levels at 5747, followed by 5677 and 5606 over a longer timeframe.
Conversely, a decisive breakout and daily close above 6030 would invalidate the current bearish setup, shifting sentiment to bullish and potentially triggering a move towards 6073, then 6170.
Conclusion:
The short-term outlook remains bearish unless the WTI Crude price breaks and holds above 6030. Traders should watch for price action signals around this key level to confirm direction. A rejection favours fresh downside continuation, while a breakout signals a potential trend reversal or deeper correction.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Why Oil’s Drop Fuels a Global Risk-Off SentimentWTI Crude Oil Monthly Technical Outlook: Below $60 and the Broader Market Implications
As the fourth quarter of 2025 unfolds, the WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) chart offers a critical perspective on the state of global supply-demand balance and its broader impact on market sentiment. Trading near $58.5 per barrel, oil prices have fallen below a key psychological threshold, and while the move may seem technical at first, its implications reach far beyond the energy market.
The combination of weakening momentum indicators, rising supply projections, and softening global demand paints a nuanced but important story: oil’s slide below $60 is no longer just a chart event, it’s a macro signal about global growth, supply dynamics, and investor positioning.
Technical Overview: Momentum Loss Deepens
The monthly chart for WTI shows a clear picture of fatigue after multiple failed rebound attempts over the past 18 months. Since peaking near $130 in early 2022, prices have formed a persistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows, reflecting an extended process of distribution.
In recent months, WTI has failed to sustain moves above $70, with sellers consistently stepping in on rallies. The October bar extended losses toward the $58 level, marking the weakest monthly close since mid-2023.
Structurally, this decline puts WTI in a critical support zone between $55 and $57, which coincides with the base that previously stabilized prices in late 2023. Should this zone fail, the next major support rests around $50 per barrel, aligning with a key Fibonacci retracement of the 2020–2022 rally.
On the upside, the resistance band remains in the $65–$68 range, a descending trendline that has capped every rebound since early 2024. A decisive monthly close above that zone would be the first confirmation of renewed strength, but momentum indicators are still leaning toward continued weakness or sideways consolidation.
MACD and Stochastic RSI: Weakening Momentum Signals
The MACD (12,26,9) indicator remains subdued below the zero line, underscoring a prolonged loss of upside momentum. The histogram has recently turned red again, indicating that the MACD line may cross below the signal line, a potential confirmation that sellers still control the trend.
Meanwhile, the Stochastic RSI, which measures RSI velocity, has rolled over from midrange levels and is pointing lower again. Its failure to sustain a rebound above 50 shows that bullish energy has faded.
If this oscillator drops below 30, it would confirm a continuation of weak-to-neutral price action through the rest of Q4. Historically, such conditions precede prolonged consolidation phases, where volatility contracts before a new trend forms.
Together, these indicators portray a market not in full capitulation, but clearly lacking conviction for an upside breakout.
Fundamental Picture: Oversupply Meets Slowing Demand
While technical signals reveal a loss of momentum, the fundamental backdrop provides stronger clues about why oil has struggled to maintain value above $60. Recent data from major energy agencies, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and multiple Reuters reports, converge on one central theme:
the global oil market is entering a surplus phase, with supply growth outpacing demand.
Large Oversupply Projections
Read full analysis on my website
darrismanresearch com
WTI Crude Oil: What Could Happen Next?Oil prices are sitting at a really important spot right now. Here’s what to watch for:
If the price drops below $58.28, it could keep falling toward $50.
If it breaks below $50, we might see it slide into the $43–$46 range.
But if oil climbs back above $65, it could run up toward $74 again.
So in simple terms:
👉 Below $58 = could fall more
👉 Above $65 = could rise again
We’re in a “wait and see” zone ; the next move will show which way oil really wants to go.
If you’re watching this market and not sure what these levels mean for your trades, feel free to DM us ; happy to break it down in plain English or share how I’m looking at it myself.
Mindbloome Exchange
Will US–China trade tensions continue to weigh on oil prices?
Deepening US–China trade tensions ahead of the APEC summit are putting downward pressure on oil prices. China’s Commerce Ministry announced sanctions on five US subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean and imposed new port fees on American vessels.
Meanwhile, President Trump accused Beijing of deliberately halting soybean purchases to pressure US farmers and warned of possible retaliatory measures, including ending trade in edible oils and other sectors.
USOIL extended its downtrend, falling below 60.00, with diverging bearish EMAs indicating a possible continuation of bearish momentum. If USOIL fails to close above 60.00, the price may retreat below 57.00. Conversely, if USOIL breaches above 60.00 and EMA21, the price may advance toward 62.00.
Crude Oil Long 5 Stacks Fundamental & 5 Stacks Technical. I am trading Short Crude oil as we have 5 stacks fundamental bearish and 5 stacks technical bearish. We are trading with some extreme confluence here and it appears to be a perfect trade. We know know there is no such thing as a perfect trade however when all the starts align we don't think twice. Many things can happen but when you stack fundamentals and technical to such a strong degree we take action. Short crude oil with 1.00 Stop Loss and 3.00 take profit.
The price of oil is weird/strange.The price of oil has dropped so much after the peace deal between Israel and Hamas, and it's just waiting for a spark that could ignite the chart and push the price up. It's strange that the oil price is this low, and I don't think it's beneficial for the US since it's one of the biggest oil producers. For now, it's reached an important support level, and we'll have to see what happens in the coming days. It's unlikely that there will be any significant movement this week.
Oil vs Gold: Transition to the Next Commodity CycleThe chart compares WTI crude (top) and the Gold/Oil ratio (bottom) on a weekly basis.
Historically, when the Gold/Oil ratio spikes — meaning gold becomes very expensive relative to oil — it tends to mark the end of the precious metals phase and the beginning of the broader commodity cycle.
In the past three cycles:
-2009 → 2011: Oil +219%
-2016 → 2018: Oil +188%
-2020 → 2022: Oil +572%
We’re seeing the same setup again:
TVC:USOIL sits at long-term support.
Gold/Oil ratio has reached historical extremes.
In each of these cases, gold had already led the move — followed by silver, industrial metals, and finally oil — the last to rally as growth and inflation expectations picked up.
If history rhymes, this could mark the rotation point where energy begins to outperform within the commodity complex.
WTI OIL hit the Channel Down bottom. Buy Signal.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a Channel Down since the July 30 High and today it hit its bottom (Lower Lows trend-line). The decline from the recent Lower High was around -13%, similar to the previous Bearish Leg.
When that bottomed (Lower Low), it rebounded towards its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and peaked (Lower High) marginally above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result, we expect a new Bullish Leg to start now, with our Target at $62.00.
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Crude Oil: Support zone is seen around 54-57Crude oil continues to refresh its low. As mentioned earlier, once the 61.3 watershed level is broken, the downward space will open up. Currently, the support zone is around 54-57, which is a suitable level to consider establishing long positions. For short-term trades, go short on a rebound after a new low is made—focus on short entries at 58.60 and add to short positions at 59.20.
Daily-updated accurate signals are at your disposal. If you run into any problems while trading, these signals serve as a reliable reference—don’t hesitate to use them! I truly hope they bring you significant assistance
GoingUp: WestTexasCrudeCrude has been anything but friendly however it has also been adamant on growing no matter the cost.
Crude Oil has aggressively passed every reason to decrease AND is still refusing to go further down. That is also the case with Crude Oil Bulls. They have substantial reasons to go long but are meet at an impasse because the economy has no report on direction. The information they do have isn’t promising and the US Government shutdown isn’t helping the matter of uncertainty either.
I mean it’s a roller coaster of emotions BUT you don’t play with your feelings you use your head and the logic is if it meets the criteria it will stand the test and this asset is signaling Long again.
Im relying on my usual supportive reasoning and insight from world news to assess this trade but with sentiment so finicky it’s never that cut and dry.
Regardless of what you gotta pay to play and since the market wants to take risks you might as well take risks too.
Just remember the market has nothing to lose but you do so be mindful how much play money you want to spend.
Now have a Prosperous Trade and God Bless
USOIL LONG FROM SUPPORT
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 58.07
Target Level: 63.04
Stop Loss: 54.76
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 9h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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USOIL Will Go Lower From Resistance! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for USOIL.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 58.309.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 54.034 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
us, oil HI GUYS,
UPDATE ON US OIL DETAIL ON PRICE PATTERNS AND SESSION HOURS
we made entries around area of interest buys, however i didn't give the detail of how we were going to pull through.
am running a few negatives on my account as per yesterdays entries however with this detail am sure will shall pull through.
I expect a reaction in London session .
(us oil) is not as heavy pair so lets see what happens.
Bearish WTI ideaAfter applying Fib Retracement and extensions from monthly to 4h time frame, The price will tap 57.83 and if closes below that then the next Magnet support is at 56.82 and will be tapped. RSI is Reaching towards oversold zone but it can stay under pressure for a longer period.
Patience is highly recommended before any entry.
USOIL Pressured by Trade Tensions and Oversupply Concerns
Fundamental approach:
- USOIL prices declined this week, pressured by renewed US-China trade tensions and persistent concerns about oversupply.
- USOIL fell following President Trump's threat of additional 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, starting 1 Nov, which reignited fears of reduced global energy demand from the world's largest consumers.
- In addition, easing Middle East tensions removed risk premiums, capping gains. OPEC+ is continuing its production increases, with the group adding 137k bpd in Nov.
- US crude inventories also rose by 3.7 mln barrels in early Oct, exceeding analyst expectations and reinforcing concerns about a supply glut.
- Prices may face further downward pressure as global inventory builds are expected to average 2.6 mln barrels per day through 4Q. However, any progress in US-China trade negotiations or unexpected supply disruptions from Eastern Europe could provide upside support.
Technical approach:
- USOIL strongly declined after retesting EMA21. The price created lower swings, indicating bearish momentum persists.
- If USOIL remains below the resistance at 60.30, the price may continue to decline toward the following support at 55.50.
- On the contrary, closing above 60.30 may prompt a further correction to retest the following resistance at 62.00.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 60.56
1st Support: 57.68
1st Resistance: 62.10
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TLDR: SELL Gold, BUY OilGold/oil ratio seems to be evolving in a band. We've had RSI divergences every time we touched the band predicting trend reversal. RSI Divergence playing out right now as we touch the seemingly relevant support.
- FX_IDC:USDWTI / FRED:WM2NS is at an all time low support level (1998, 2016, 2020)
- TVC:GOLD / FRED:WM2NS at an all time High (1983, oct 2011)
Gold/Oil ratio looks like a Big BUY to me. Enjoy \o/.
WTI (Crude Oil) — Bullish Bat in ProgressOANDA:WTICOUSD
A bullish Bat pattern is currently forming, with a potential completion near $57.86 — the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement of the prior leg.
If the pattern confirms, it could trigger a bullish move toward $65.70, aligning with the 38.2% retracement level.
Price action around $57–58 will be key — watch for reversal confirmation, as momentum divergence before validating long positions.






















