Bearish USOIL: 58 at RiskUSOIL extended the previous session's decline today, showing an overall weak fluctuating downward trend. The core bearish factor of oversupply continues to weigh, with a lack of short-term rebound momentum.
On the indicator front, the 9-day EMA has crossed below the 20-day EMA, forming a short-term death cross signal, indicating that the downward trend is likely to continue. The 14-day RSI hovers around 40, remaining in a downward channel with no oversold rebound signals, suggesting that bears still hold the initiative and there is no large-scale entry of bottom-fishing funds.
In terms of resistance and support, short-term rebound resistance is concentrated at the pivot point of 59.28 and the 59.50-60 range. As a key integer level, failure to reclaim 60 will see bearish sentiment continue to spread. For support below, focus first on 55.7; if the 58 level is broken, a accelerated drop to this support level is highly likely.
Trading Strategy:
Buy 58 - 58.3
SL 58
TP 59 - 59.5 - 60
Sell 59.5 - 60
SL 60.5
TP 58.5 - 58 - 57.5
Trade ideas
The Contango Conundrum: Why Crude’s Price Power WanesThe global crude oil market is signaling sustained weakness. A clear sign is the Contango in the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures curve for most of 2026. This structure prices future oil deliveries higher than immediate ones, strongly indicating a global supply glut. Major forecasting bodies like the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) now confirm a record surplus looms in 2026, reversing previous tight market expectations. Understanding this decline requires a multidisciplinary lens, examining supply resilience against sluggish demand across several domains.
Geostrategy and Geopolitics: Production Over Protocol
Geopolitical decisions, paradoxically, contribute to oversupply. OPEC+ members are gradually unwinding previous voluntary production cuts, adding millions of barrels back to the market. This production boost, formalized in their latest agreements, increases supply visibility and dampens price spikes. Simultaneously, sustained geopolitical tensions between major powers often lead key consumers like China to ramp up Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) , effectively soaking up immediate surplus but reducing future demand visibility. This policy-driven stockpiling mitigates immediate price falls, but structural oversupply persists.
Macroeconomics and Economics: Slowdown Meets Resilience
A deceleration in global oil demand growth meets unexpectedly resilient supply . Macroeconomic headwinds, including trade tensions and a sluggish global economic outlook, suppress consumption growth below historical trends. This tepid demand environment is exacerbated by expanding production from non-OPEC+ nations. Crucially, the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana lead this non-OPEC+ supply expansion, challenging the cartel’s market dominance. The resulting imbalance, production exceeding demand, creates the chronic oversupply driving WTI into contango.
Technology and High-Tech: Efficiency Enhances Supply
Advancements in extraction technology dramatically boosted supply, particularly within the US shale sector. Continuous innovations in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing sustain high US output, even as prices soften. Furthermore, the rapid expansion of Electric Vehicle (EV) sales and increasing vehicle fuel efficiencies represent a major technological headwind for transportation fuel demand. This shift, supported by global patent activity in battery and wave energy technology, structurally limits long-term oil consumption growth.
Patent and Science Analysis: The Energy Transition
Patent activity confirms the directional shift away from fossil fuels. While patents related to downhole completion systems and drilling fluid prediction remain, increased patenting in Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) [/b and Green Hydrogen signals the industry's necessary pivot. The science of energy transition, focusing on low-carbon solutions, suggests a future where oil remains a critical input but faces mounting competition from technological substitutes. This long-term displacement risk pressures oil prices, even if demand remains firm in the short run.
Cyber and Strategic Risk: Supply Chain Security
The increasing reliance on complex digital infrastructure across the oil value chain introduces cyber risk . Successful attacks on pipeline operators or refineries can cause temporary supply disruptions and price spikes. However, the market currently views such disruptions as temporary events rather than long-term structural issues affecting the overall supply-demand balance. The oversupply acts as a buffer, with floating storage and ample inventory mitigating the impact of short-term, localized outages.
Investment Outlook: Watching Spreads
The market signals clearly indicate supply strength and demand vulnerability. The widening WTI contango structure provides a clear arbitrage opportunity for traders willing to finance storage. Investors should closely monitor the Brent-Dubai Exchange of Futures for Swaps (EFS), which is turning negative, underscoring specific weakening in the Atlantic Basin. Barring a sharp, coordinated OPEC+ cut or an unexpected large-scale geopolitical conflict, pricing pressure should persist into 2026. Traders must prioritize futures spread analysis over simple outright price forecasting.
USOIL: Fluctuating declineCrude oil showed a trend of fluctuating decline today, breaking through key support levels, with a clear bearish dominance.
Key support below: In the short term, attention should be paid to the $59.00 integer mark. If this level is breached, oil prices may further drop to $58.00.
Resistance levels for rebound: If there is a technical rebound in oil prices, the first resistance level is at $60.50, and the second resistance level is at $61.50, with limited rebound space.
Trading Strategy:
Buy 59 - 59.5
SL 58.5
TP 60 - 60.5 - 61
Sell 60.5 - 61
SL 61.5
TP 59.1 - 58.5
USOIL | Breakout or Bull Trap? The Broader Case for Oil StrengthCrude oil appears to have broken above its short-term flag pattern — but is this the start of a continuation move, or just a false breakout? Several intermarket charts suggest the broader structure may still favour strength rather than exhaustion.
Technical Lens:
On the main USOIL chart, price has breached the upper bound of its descending flag after a steady base-building phase. The next few sessions will confirm whether this is a retest of the breakout or a failed move back inside the flag.
Chart-by-Chart Context:
1. Energy Sector ETF vs USOIL
The energy equity space has been outperforming crude itself. When energy stocks lead the underlying commodity, it often implies optimism about future earnings and renewed capital expenditure — a supportive sign for oil continuity.
2. Oil Volatility Index (OVX)
OVX has been steadily falling even as crude prices rise. This dynamic — higher prices with lower implied volatility — signals a healthy, stable uptrend driven by real demand rather than fear or short covering.
3. USOIL vs OVX Spread
The spread between crude and OVX continues to climb, indicating increasing price stability in the up-move. A rising spread historically accompanies sustained bullish phases.
4. USOIL vs Brent Oil
The spread between WTI and Brent remains in a descending structure, but with a potential breakout pending. If this breaks higher, it would suggest strengthening internal US demand — often a catalyst for follow-through in global crude benchmarks.
Scenarios:
Scenario A: If USOIL holds above the breakout zone → confirmation of a valid retest and potential continuation toward the upper resistance band.
Scenario B: If it slips back below the flag → false breakout risk, likely a short-term correction before broader trend direction resumes.
Takeaway:
Oil’s technical picture looks cautious but constructive. With energy equities leading, volatility compressing, and spreads hinting at underlying demand, the broader setup tilts toward stability — provided USOIL can sustain above its breakout zone.
Crude Oil Bullish at 60, US Session Strategy Update
After two days of gains, crude oil has regained the 60 mark, finally establishing a clear upward trend. Maintaining our previous view, crude oil is likely to continue its upward trend with fluctuations. We need to observe the strength and effectiveness of the rebound this week. Based on the current fluctuations, crude oil should continue to rise this week. In the short term, focus on the 60-60.3 buying level and patiently wait for the bullish upward space. Resistance remains around 62-62.5.5.
This advice is time-sensitive. I update my trading ideas and strategies daily. If you don't yet have a crude oil trading plan or idea and are seeking consistent and stable returns, please stay tuned.
Oil - Expecting Bullish Continuation In The Short TermH1 - Downtrend line breakout.
Higher highs.
No opposite signs.
Until the two strong support zones hold I expect the price to move higher further.
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Factors favoring the price of crude oil1.Short-term bullish support: Excess inventory was unexpectedly depleted
The latest API data shows that U.S. crude oil inventory dropped by 6.5 million barrels, far exceeding the market expectation of 1.3 million barrels. This represents the largest single-week decline in recent history, reflecting that refineries have entered the seasonal expansion phase, with accelerated crude oil processing and consumption, and the export demand remains resilient. This data directly alleviated market concerns about short-term oversupply, providing immediate support at the $60.90 level. From a structural perspective, gasoline inventory also showed a depleting trend, suggesting a marginal improvement in terminal consumption, and the short-term supply-demand balance leans towards a tight equilibrium.
2. Potential bullish factor: The overlooked black swan risk
The attack by Ukraine on Russian oil facilities is still ongoing. The Lukoil Volgograd refinery (accounting for 5% of Russia's total refining output) has been out of operation and the recovery progress is slow. Moreover, the United States has included all four major Russian oil giants in sanctions, and there is still potential supply disruption. Additionally, the latent conflict between Israel and Iran has not been fully resolved. The Strait of Hormuz, which is a transportation channel for 20% of the world's oil, always has safety hazards as an "invisible support" for oil prices. If the situation changes again, the geopolitical risk premium will quickly flow back.
Crude oil trading strategy
buy:60.5-60.8
tp:61.5-62
sl:59.5
Short-term rebound opportunities are emergingThe policy divergence of the Federal Reserve has emerged, and the expectation of a rate cut has not been completely reversed.
Although some Fed officials (Schmid, Logan) oppose a rate cut in December, Powell emphasized that "policies need to balance the risks of employment and inflation", and member Milan advocated for a significant rate cut, while Baumann expected another rate cut twice before the end of the year. There is a significant divergence between the dovish and hawkish factions within the Fed. The probability of a rate cut in December remains at around 50% in the market, and the few hawkish remarks have not completely negated the trend of easing. Coupled with the narrow range fluctuation of the US dollar index near 99.66 today, it has not broken through the key resistance of 99.75, and the strengthening momentum of the US dollar has weakened marginally. The valuation pressure of crude oil priced in US dollars has eased, creating conditions for a rebound.
Crude oil trading strategy
buy:59.3-59.6
tp:60-60.5
sl:59
USOIL: Accumulate bullish momentumFrom the daily chart perspective of crude oil, on a partial level, the current oscillating rhythm is a secondary consolidation. Judging from the primary and secondary rhythms, there is still room for a rebound and upward move in the trend. The MACD indicator remains below the zero axis, indicating that bullish momentum still needs to accumulate further. It is expected that after the medium-term trend of crude oil tests the low point and finds support, a rebound and upward movement is likely to form.
Buy 59 - 59.5
SL 58.5
TP 60 - 60.5 - 61
Sell 60.5 - 61
SL 61.5
TP 59.1 - 58.5
Learn How to Trade WTI in 1 MinuteWTI in the 4H timeframe has formed a solid range for us that could lead to a strong trend after breaking out of it.
Setup and Entry: A: Our long trigger is breaking the ceiling, meaning 60.329 , and B: Our short trigger is breaking the floor at 59.375 .
Exit Plan: For scenario A, we can take profits at levels 61.203 and 61.891 —also, if you spot any kind of reject candle or reversal pattern on these levels, you can close the position.
For scenario B, 57.360 could serve as a sort of final target; depending on the risk-to-reward you get, you can close or hold out for 56.321 . Short targets are more extensive because HWC and MWC also carry bearish momentum, which aids further drops—so the bearish bias here is stronger.
Goal: For A, simply capturing the daily corrective wave; for B, continuing the MWC with partial profits to aim for higher R/R ratios.
Thanks for your attention.
Headwinds persist for oil, but downside looks limitedHeadwinds persist for oil, but downside looks limited
Technical factors
Oil continues to form lower swings. Although there has been a rebound, it lacks sustained momentum, suggesting it may be only a temporary bounce; the lower-swing structure and bearish EMAs still signal a downtrend.
However, the downtrend is also losing strength, as evidenced by the price hasn’t set a new low for seven months. Therefore, if the price breaks to new lows, the downside may be limited, as momentum looks waning.
If USOIL falls from here and breaks the previous low at 55.00, the price could fall toward 50.00.
Conversely, if the pullback holds above the support at 58.00, the price may build a base before breaking above the higher peak at 62.50, targeting resistance at 66.50.
Fundamental factors
A key headwind remains supply growing faster than demand. OPEC+ members plan to raise output, stoking oversupply concerns, compounded by the U.S. accelerating production and reducing reliance on foreign supplies due to increased domestic output—currently a net import of crude oil as of October 2025, with net imports around 1.7 million barrels per day, the lowest since 1971.
U.S. crude inventories continue to rise, signaling softer domestic demand alongside higher imports.
Global economic growth is slowing, weighing on oil demand, particularly from China and other major economies.
A stronger U.S. dollar makes dollar-priced oil more expensive for other countries, dampening overall demand.
Analysis by: Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Crude oil - 10/11/2025Oil prices rose on Monday as optimism grew that the prolonged U.S. government shutdown could soon end, boosting demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. The Senate’s progress toward reopening the government lifted market sentiment, and restoring pay to federal workers should improve consumer confidence and spending.
WTI prices could rebound to $62 a barrel as risk appetite improves, though concerns remain about rising global supply. U.S. crude inventories are increasing, and stored volumes in Asian waters have doubled amid sanctions that curbed imports to China and India. Indian refiners are sourcing more from the Middle East and the Americas, while Russia’s Lukoil faces disruptions ahead of a U.S. deadline to cease business with the company. Meanwhile, Washington’s one-year sanctions exemption for Hungary has contributed to concerns about oversupply.
On the technical side, the crude oil price is testing the resistance of $60, which is the psychological resistance of the round number as well as the 38.2% of the daily Fibonacci retracement level. Although the moving averages are confirming an overall bearish trend in the crude oil market, the Stochastic oscillator is approaching extreme oversold levels, suggesting that a bullish correction may be forthcoming in the upcoming sessions. If this is the case and the price indeed moves up, then the first area of potential resistance might be seen around $62, which is the medium-term resistance level where the price reacted multiple times in the past couple of months, making it a major technical area on the chart. On the other hand, the Bollinger Bands have started contracting late last week, indicating that we may experience sideways movement in the short term before any significant move.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness
USOIL (WTI) - Waiting for the Key Level: Break or Rejection?USOIL price action is currently consolidating around a critical level.
This level is significant as it acts as both:
Resistance: A confirmed breakout could signal a strong move higher.
Support: A clear rejection (touch and reversal) could present a solid short opportunity.
Simple Head and shoulder formation for crude Oil reversal formatSimple Head and shoulder formation for crude Oil reversal formation, starting for a Bull run
Simple Support and resistance method to trade in any stock, forex, futures, CFD, crypto, and other financial scripts.
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Your money management only decides your profit
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Any trade money management is a tool to help you grow your portfolio.
Simple trading strategy support & resistance
All trading methods will give only 49% or 51% - #moneyManagement is the key
Your money management only decides your profit
#BTC #forex #supportortandresistance #tradinging #swingtradingstrategies #buy #sell #EURUSD #Gold #niftyy #s&p500 #etf #QQQ #IWM #future #options #longterm #XAUUSD #silver #USDCAD #btcusd
#oil Head and shoulder pattern formationSimple Head and shoulder formation for crude Oil reversal formation starting for a Bull run
Simple Support and resistance method to trade in any stock, forex, futures, CFD, crypto, and other financial scripts.
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#BTC STILL IN #BUY@LOW Level #BTCUSD
Check my previous post where it started
#buy@low #sell@high
Simple trading strategy support & resistance
All trading methods will give only 49% or 51% - #money Management is the key
Your money management only decides your profit
#BTC #forex #supportortandresistance #tradinging #swingtradingstrategies #buy #sellll #EURUSD #goldd #niftyy #s&p #etf #qqq #iwm #future #options #longterm#buyy
@low #sell@high
Any trade money management is a tool to help you grow your portfolio.
Simple trading strategy support & resistance
All trading methods will give only 49% or 51% - #moneyManagement is the key
Your money management only decides your profit
#BTC #forex #supportortandresistance #tradinging #swingtradingstrategies #buy #sell #EURUSD #Gold #niftyy #s&p500 #etf #QQQ #IWM #future #options #longterm #XAUUSD #silver #USDCAD #btcusd
Bearish momentum to extend?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) has rejected the pivot level, which serves as a pullback resistance, and could reverse toward the 1st support.
Pivot: 61.26
1st Support: 56.38
1st Resistance: 64.62
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
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Next week's crude oil trading strategyThe expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has been restored, and the decline in the US dollar index has boosted oil prices.
In November, the core PPI of the US increased by 2.8% year-on-year (lower than the expected 3.0%), and the number of unemployment benefit claims exceeded expectations and increased by 12% month-on-month. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has risen from 68% to 85%, and the cumulative interest rate cut expectation for 2026 has been restored from 75BP to 90BP. The marginal warming of the expectation of loose liquidity has pushed the US dollar index to fall from 100.5 to 99.2, and the valuation of major commodities priced in US dollars, such as crude oil, has been supported - historical data shows that for every 1% decline in the US dollar index, the average crude oil price rises by 1.3%. The current decline in the US dollar has directly boosted oil prices.
Next week's crude oil trading strategy
buy:59.5-60
tp:60.5-601
sl:59
WTI Crude upside resistance at 6160The WTI Crude Oil is currently trading with a bearish bias, aligned with the broader downward trend. Recent price action shows a retest of the longer term support, suggesting a temporary relief rally within the downtrend.
Key resistance is located at 6160, a prior consolidation zone. This level will be critical in determining the next directional move.
A bearish rejection from 6160 could confirm the resumption of the downtrend, targeting the next support levels at 5946, followed by 5845 and 5780 over a longer timeframe.
Conversely, a decisive breakout and daily close above 6160 would invalidate the current bearish setup, shifting sentiment to bullish and potentially triggering a move towards 6215, then 6300.
Conclusion:
The short-term outlook remains bearish unless the WTI Crude price breaks and holds above 6160. Traders should watch for price action signals around this key level to confirm direction. A rejection favours fresh downside continuation, while a breakout signals a potential trend reversal or deeper correction.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for TodayGeopolitical Risks: Structural imbalances persist, with short-term disturbances being the main factor
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has entered its fourth year. Russia's crude oil has doubled its share in the Asian market through the "shadow fleet" (487 vessels) and Indian refineries (processing 1.8 million barrels per day), with the price difference between Urals and Brent narrowing to $15 per barrel. The pulse-like impact of the conflict on oil prices has weakened, but there is still a possibility of a "black swan" event - if Russian energy facilities are attacked, it could lead to a 2-3 million barrels per day supply gap, and oil prices could exceed $150. Additionally, the advancement of the Gaza ceasefire agreement and the restoration of shipping order in the Red Sea have reduced the short-term geopolitical premium, but potential risks such as the situation in the Middle East and Iran sanctions have not been eliminated, which may trigger short-term price fluctuations.
The core contradiction in the current crude oil market is the "mid-term supply surplus" versus "short-term marginal improvement (demand differentiation + interest rate cut expectations + geopolitical disturbances)". The price of $59.50 is in the "bottom support zone + policy sensitive zone", making it suitable to adopt a combination strategy of "short-term catching rebounds, medium-term controlling risks" - using short-term marginal variables to earn short-term gains, while hedging the downward risks brought by the medium-term surplus through option tools.
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today
buy:59-59.5
tp:60-60.5
sl:58.5






















