Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 60 (Wave 3).The price is still not reaching the target of 60. I decided to make a new forecast, slightly changing the labeling of waves, or rather their importance.
At this stage, as before, I think that the price will reach the area of the level 60 in the middle wave “3”.
This movement is the development of the big corrective wave “C”. In general, the plan remains the same.
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Trade ideas
Crude Oil – Bearish Below 61.83 as OPEC+ Meeting NearsCrude Oil – Overview
Crude prices remain under pressure as geopolitical and supply factors clash with weak demand signals.
The Trump administration will provide Ukraine with intelligence for long-range missile strikes inside Russia, raising geopolitical risk.
Markets await Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting, where another November output hike is expected despite supply glut concerns.
The latest EIA data showed crude inventories rising for the first time in three weeks, while gasoline stocks posted the biggest jump since June—signalling weaker demand.
Technical Outlook
Oil maintains a bearish bias as long as price trades below 61.83, with downside targets at 60.20 → 58.70.
A confirmed 4H close above 61.83 would flip momentum bullish, targeting 63.47 → 64.75.
Pivot: 61.83
Support: 60.20 – 58.70
Resistance: 63.47 – 64.75
Oil prices extend losses on supply concernsOil prices extend losses on supply concerns
Oil prices slipped Thursday, extending last week’s decline on oversupply worries and uncertainty from the U.S. government shutdown. Expectations that OPEC+ may raise output by up to 500,000 bpd in November, along with forecasts of a potential glut, weighed on sentiment.
Geopolitical risks remain in focus, with the G7 vowing tighter controls on Russian oil and the U.S. set to aid Ukraine with intelligence for strikes on energy infrastructure. Still, Chinese stockpiling helped limit losses. Concerns over Russian supply disruptions and steady Chinese stockpiling provided some support, but U.S. data showing rising crude and fuel inventories added to bearish pressure.
CRUDE OIL Free Signal! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL taps into a horizontal demand area, showing strong bullish reaction. Liquidity beneath recent lows is swept, signalling smart money positioning for upside continuation.
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Stop Loss: 61.35$
Take Profit: 62.87$
Entry: 61.94$
Time Frame: 8H
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Buy!
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WTI Crude key support retest at 6200The WTI Crude Oil is currently trading with a bearish bias, aligned with the broader downward trend. Recent price action shows a retest of the resistance, suggesting a further selling pressure within the downtrend.
Key resistance is located at 6540, a prior consolidation zone. This level will be critical in determining the next directional move.
A bearish rejection from 6540 could confirm the resumption of the downtrend, targeting the next support levels at 6200, followed by 6070 and 6000 over a longer timeframe.
Conversely, a decisive breakout and daily close above 6540 would invalidate the current bearish setup, shifting sentiment to bullish and potentially triggering a move towards 6650, then 6830.
Conclusion:
The short-term outlook remains bearish unless WTI Crude breaks and holds above 6540. Traders should watch for price action signals around this key level to confirm direction. A rejection favours fresh downside continuation, while a breakout signals a potential trend reversal or deeper correction.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
USOIL continues to decline on oversupply concerns
Oil prices tumbled on oversupply fears as major producers ramped up output. Reuters reported that ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on October 5th, November production hikes could exceed the planned 137,000 barrels per day. The resumption of Kurdish oil exports and prospects of additional supply may further pressure prices.
USOIL extended its decline before consolidating within the 61.50–63.00 range. The death cross of the EMAs points to a potential shift toward bearish momentum. If USOIL breaks below the 61.50 support, the price could retreat toward 60.00. Conversely, if USOIL breaks above the 63.00 resistance, the price may advance toward 65.50.
CRUDE OIL Will Grow! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL after sweeping liquidity from the horizontal demand area, price shows signs of rebalancing inefficiency. From an SMC perspective, buyers may drive the market toward the marked target zone. Time Frame 5H.
Buy!
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WTI OIL Channel Up bottom buy signalWTI Crude Oil (USOIL) has almost touched the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of its September Channel Up, following a strong rejection (Bearish Led) just below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
With the 4H RSI entering its medium-term Buy Zone, we have a strong short-term buy signal at our hands. Our Target is $66.50, expecting a 1D MA200 test, below the 1.1 Fibonacci extension, below which the previous Higher High was priced.
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USOIL BULLS ARE STRONG HERE|LONG
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 62.93
Target Level: 64.18
Stop Loss: 62.10
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 4h
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USOIL BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 65.18
Target Level: 63.42
Stop Loss: 66.35
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 9h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WTI Crude Oil Short Setup: Retest of Flipped ResistanceHello TradingView Community,
This post outlines a potential short trade setup for WTI Light Crude Oil (XTIUSD) on the 15-minute timeframe.
Technical Analysis:
The chart highlights a key horizontal price level at approximately $63.50. This level previously acted as a solid support base, holding the price up on multiple occasions.
We have recently witnessed a clear breakdown below this support, indicating a shift in momentum to the bearish side. The price is now consolidating just below this broken structure, potentially setting up for a retest. This is a classic "support-turned-resistance" scenario. The expectation is that this level will now act as a ceiling, rejecting the price and leading to a continuation of the downtrend.
Trade Setup:
The short position tool on the chart visualizes a potential trade plan based on this bearish outlook:
Entry: Approximately $63.50 (at the retest of the new resistance).
Stop Loss: $64.82 (placed above the resistance zone to invalidate the idea if the price reclaims the level).
Take Profit: $58.36 (targeting a new potential swing low).
This setup provides a structured plan with a clear risk-to-reward ratio for a potential move lower.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and discussion purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading commodities involves significant risk. Please conduct your own research and manage your risk appropriately before making any trading decisions.
USOIL: Sideways-to-lower in a tight bandThis is my previous analysis — feel free to take a look for reference.
1. Institutional Forecast Updates
IEA (Sep 15, 2025):
WTI targets $64.2/bbl for 2025 and $47.8/bb l for 2026
Brent targets $68/bbl for 2025 and $51/bb l for 2026
Goldman Sach (Jul 14, 2025):
WTI targets $63/bbl for H2 2025 and $52/bbl for 2026
Brent targets $64/bbl for H2 2025 and $56/bbl for 2026
J.P. Morgan (May 16, 2025):
Brent targets $64/bbl for H2 2025 and $56/bbl for 2026
www.rigzone.com
www.reuters.com www.jpmorgan.com
2. Key Drivers & Risks
📉 Supply
OPEC+ unwinding cuts of 2.2 mb/d (2024–2025), plus +137 kb/d starting October 2025.
Global supply reached 106.9 mb/d in Aug 2025; projected to rise by +2.7 mb/d to 105.8 mb/d in 2025.
U.S. output hit a record 13.2–13.4 mb/d (2024–2025)
Brazil, Guyana, and Canada are key contributors to non-OPEC+ growth.
U.S. shale breakeven costs: ~$62–68/bbl.
New offshore projects breakeven at ~$47/bbl.
OECD inventories in July 2025: 2,848 million barrels; 58.1 days of forward cover.
✳️ Demand
Global oil demand in 2024: ~103 mb/d (~193 EJ)
2025 demand growth of only +0.7 mb/d (weakest since 2009, excluding 2020).
OPEC projects demand growth of +1.3 mb/d in 2025 and +1.4 mb/d in 2026.
Consumption structure: transport accounts for ~two-thirds of oil demand; >90% of transport energy comes from oil.
Petrochemicals (naphtha, LPG) remain a key driver of incremental demand.
🛑 Politics & Geopolitics
Escalating Middle East tensions: growing risks in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea.
Kurdistan–Turkey pipeline (~0.23 mb/d) subject to recurring disruptions.
Venezuela: Chevron faces restrictions on U.S. exports.
OPEC+ often produces ~0.5 mb/d below quota due to capacity limits.
Long-term trend: EV adoption and emission policies structurally weaken demand growth.
✅ Overall View:
Overall, governments both want to bring oil prices down to support their economies and also tend to protect oil companies, since prices are currently low relative to many firms’ breakeven levels.
Prices are likely to edge gradually lower within a narrow range of $70–$50, and it is important to closely monitor factors that could trigger supply–demand shocks.
3. Technical Analysis
* Trend: assessed using at least three trend indicators, with market structure as the primary guide.
** Weak or Reversal Signals: Assessed based on one of our criteria for trend reversal signals.
*** Support/Resistance: Selected from multiple factors – static (Swing High, Swing Low, etc.), dynamic (EMA, MA, etc.), psychological (Fibonacci, RSI, etc.) – and determined based on the trader’s discretion.
**** Our advice takes into account all factors, including both fundamental and technical analysis. It is not intended as a profit target. We hope it can serve as a reference to help you trade more effectively. This advice is for informational purposes only and we assume no responsibility for any trading results based on it.
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USOIL: Waiting for resistance rejection & buying at support zonePlease refer to my previous higher-timeframe analyses to better follow my current outlook on USOIL.
* Trend: assessed using at least three trend indicators, with market structure as the primary guide.
** Weak or Reversal Signals: Assessed based on one of our criteria for trend reversal signals.
*** Support/Resistance: Selected from multiple factors – static (Swing High, Swing Low, etc.), dynamic (EMA, MA, etc.), psychological (Fibonacci, RSI, etc.) – and determined based on the trader’s discretion.
**** Our advice takes into account all factors, including both fundamental and technical analysis. It is not intended as a profit target. We hope it can serve as a reference to help you trade more effectively. This advice is for informational purposes only and we assume no responsibility for any trading results based on it.
Please like and comment below to support our traders. Your reactions will motivate us to do more analysis in the future 🙏✨






















