WTI OIL OIL DEFENDED 56$-55$ ZONE ,THE NEXT TECHNICAL BUY POSITION WILL BE 60.79$-61$  ,IF THE LAYER IS RESPECTED I WILL HOLD BUY TILL WE BREAKOUT OF 62.188$ PER BARREL hoping to challenge the long term descending trendline holding  price as supply roof and dynamic resistance to upswing.
buy target could exceed 66.219-65.567$
WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil is a major benchmark for oil prices, representing light, sweet crude oil primarily produced in the U.S. It is widely used globally to price various grades of crude oil.
As of late October 2025, WTI crude oil prices have been trading around $61.745 per barrel. The recent price movement reflects several fundamental factors:
Supply Constraints: Ongoing production cuts by OPEC+ members and U.S. sanctions on key oil-producing countries are tightening supply, supporting prices.
Demand Dynamics: Global economic concerns, including slowing growth in major economies, have weighed on demand outlook, causing price volatility.
Inventory Levels: U.S. crude inventory data and storage capacity utilization have affected market sentiment with fluctuating stockpile levels.
Geopolitical Risks: Tensions in the Middle East and trade uncertainties continue to keep risk premium in prices.
Energy Transition Policies: Shifts toward renewable energy and emission reduction targets are influencing longer-term demand forecasts.
In summary, WTI prices near $61-62$ are driven by a mix of supply discipline, cautious demand outlook, and geopolitical uncertainties, creating a balanced but volatile oil market environment 
This fundamental backdrop suggests that price action in WTI will remain sensitive to OPEC+ decisions, U.S. economic data, and geopolitical developments.
#USOIL #WTI #OIL #UKOIL
Trade ideas
Crude oil may bounce higherThe today's potential idea is a technical long for Crude oil.
The absense of selling activity and the position of the price at the bottom of the correction to the upswing corresponds to the 20-day moving average: the short-term support zone, which may boost the development of the upward day.
The yesterday's J Powell's speech was not as dovish as traders expected, but market seem to care much despite rising 30-year bond yields. Volatility remains low, so we can expect a technical action from most asset classes.
That's not a signal, that's just the idea. Always consider your own reseach and manage your risk at all times!
The attack committee's risk has triggered supply anxietyDirect supply disruption risk: 900,000 barrels/day capacity at risk of zeroing out
The current daily crude oil production in Venezuela is 940,000 barrels (accounting for 0.9% of the global total). Although the absolute scale is limited, as the only OPEC oil-producing country not subject to production quotas, its production capacity has strategic resilience. Actions such as the arrival of US B-1B bombers and the deployment of the "Ford" aircraft carrier strike group in the Caribbean Sea, if escalated to military strikes, the core facilities of PDVSA, such as Lake Maracaibo oil field (accounting for 60% of the capacity) and Jose Port (the only deep-water oil port), will be directly paralyzed. Short-term exports may drop from 900,000 barrels/day to zero, forming a dual supply shock of "sanctions + war". 
Replacement supply gap difficult to fill: OPEC+ remaining capacity in crisis
Currently, the total remaining capacity of OPEC+ is only 210,000 barrels/day, and it is concentrated in Saudi Arabia (180,000 barrels/day). If combined with the sanctions on Iran and disruptions in Red Sea transportation, Saudi Arabia needs to increase production by 170,000 barrels/day to fill the gap, which is close to its maximum idle capacity limit. Although US shale oil has potential, due to capital discipline restrictions, the maximum monthly increase in production is only 30,000 barrels/day, far from covering the supply vacuum in Venezuela. The price spread of heavy crude oil (the main type in Venezuela) has expanded from 1.2 US dollars to 1.8 US dollars, and structural tension has emerged.
Market sentiment preview: Risk premium accelerating inclusion
Historical data shows that after the US imposed sanctions on PDVSA in 2019, the weekly fluctuation range of oil prices expanded to 8%; while the impact intensity of military conflicts is 3-5 times that of sanctions - the oil facilities in Iran were attacked in 2019 (similar supply disruption), pushing oil prices to surge by 7.3% in a single day. Currently, the CFTC crude oil volatility index has risen from 18 to 25, and funds have begun to layout geopolitical risks in advance. The premium of near-month contracts over far-month contracts has expanded to 1.2 US dollars, reflecting short-term supply concerns.
Next week's crude oil trading strategy
buy:59.5-60
tp:61-61.50
sl:58.5
WTI Crude Oil – Update
I’ve entered a short position around this zone.
I don’t predict the market — I just follow opportunities.
It doesn’t matter what happens after entry; I simply follow my plan.
Those who’ve been following me know my system:
At a 1:1 reward, I close half of my position — that means zero risk.
If the market reverses and hits my stop, I lose nothing.
If it keeps moving, I use a trailing stop to catch as much of the move as possible.
That’s what real position management looks like.
And if my level breaks, I don’t just sit and watch — I’ll go long with the market.
I don’t predict or guess the future;
I trade with discipline, patience, and respect for the market.
I’m a trader, not a fortune teller.
WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) Bearish OutlookOil is showing clear signs of weakness after rejecting the 61.80–62.00 resistance zone, which has acted as a strong supply area multiple times before. The price failed to maintain bullish momentum and is now turning lower, confirming potential bearish continuation.
The RSI is also pointing down from mid-levels, supporting further downside pressure. If sellers remain in control, a drop toward the 58.00–56.30 zone looks likely.
🔹 Resistance: 61.80 – 62.00
🔹 Support: 58.00 / 56.30
🔹 Bias: Bearish below 61.80
🔹 Timeframe: 4H
Structure remains bearish as long as price trades under the resistance zone — next wave down could be strong.
CRUDE OIL Potential Short! Sell!
 Hello, Traders!
CRUDE OIL  Price is reacting to a clear Horizontal Supply Area after liquidity sweep above the recent swing high. Smart money positioning suggests a short-term redistribution phase as sell-side liquidity below $61 becomes the draw.Time Frame 4H.
 Sell!
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Next week's crude oil trading strategyFundamentals: Inventory liquidation continues + OPEC + production increase debate, support margin strengthens
1.Inventory data remains positive, demand resilience verified
The latest EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have continued to deplete unexpectedly for two consecutive weeks, gasoline inventories have recorded the largest decline in the past 5 years on a year-on-year basis, and the inventories of the three major oil products are all below the 5-year average by 10%-15%, significantly easing the inventory pressure. Although inventories in the Cushing region have slightly increased, the overall de-accumulation trend has not changed. In addition, China's petrochemical plants' purchase volume in November is expected to increase by 5%-8% compared with the previous month, and terminal demand provides rigid support for oil prices.
1.OPEC + production increase debate intensifies, supply constraint not eased
OPEC + has obvious differences in the pace of production increase: Saudi Arabia hopes to expand production to regain market share, while Russia advocates maintaining a moderate increase of 137,000 barrels per day to avoid supply过剩 suppressing oil prices. The fulfillment rate of production increase in November was less than 60%, and the UAE has a 9.500 barrels per day gap due to oilfield maintenance, and Russia has not fully released idle production capacity. In addition, Saudi Arabia's "voluntary reduction of 1 million barrels per day" policy continues until the end of 2025, the supply side's protection for oil prices exceeds market expectations. Institutions predict that this week, OPEC + may maintain a small increase in production or suspend the increase, further limiting the supply increase.
1.Refinery profit supports processing demand
Although the diesel crack spread in the New York port has declined, it is still 40% higher than the same period in 2024, and the gasoline crack spread remains at a high level, supporting the stable operation of U.S. refineries at 87.2% and the daily crude oil processing volume at 17.3 million barrels, providing stable support for procurement demand.
Next week's crude oil trading strategy
buy:60-60.5
tp:61.5-62
sl:59
USOILCrude oil is currently trading around the $60.00 level, consolidating after a recent bearish phase. Price has respected the support zone near $59.50–59.80, forming a potential accumulation base.
A descending trendline is acting as dynamic resistance, while the 50-period moving average is flattening—indicating that bearish momentum is losing strength.
The projection suggests a possible breakout above the trendline, followed by a retest of the breakout zone before a potential rally toward the $62.00–62.50 area.
As long as the price holds above the support zone, the bullish scenario remains valid. A breakdown below $59.50 would invalidate this setup.
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today"Smart money" quietly entered the market, and the buying power accumulated rapidly.
In the last three trading days, the speculative funds (hedge funds, investment banks, etc.) in the crude oil futures market suddenly increased their bullish positions by 150,000 lots, marking the largest weekly increase in 3 months. These funds began to build positions in batches when the oil price dropped below $60, just like when the oil price fell to $58 last year, it was also these funds that entered the market, and the oil price soon rebounded by $5. At the same time, the inflow of funds into crude oil ETFs also increased fourfold. Ordinary investors began to follow suit and enter the market, and the buying pressure changed from "scattered" to "concentrated", providing sufficient short-term upward momentum.
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today
usoil @ buy 61-61.5
tp:62-62.5
SL:60
USOIL:  Short Trading Opportunity
 USOIL 
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
 SUGGESTED TRADE: 
Swing Trade
Short USOIL
Entry Point - 60.87
Stop Loss - 61.10
Take Profit - 60.44
 Our Risk - 1% 
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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WTICUSD: Post-Sanctions 5% Rebound Hints at 20% WTICUSD: Post-Sanctions 5% Rebound Hints at 20% Upside Amid Supply Constraints – SWOT, Price Action, and Intrinsic Value Insights
📊 Introduction  
As of October 30, 2025, WTICUSD (WTI Crude Oil) is showing signs of a tentative rebound after recent volatility, rising 5% over the past week to trade around $60 per barrel on increased volume following U.S. sanctions on Russian firms like Rosneft and Lukoil. 
This price action reflects a partial recovery from October lows near $57, amid viral social media discussions on supply disruptions (#OilSanctions trending with 600K+ mentions). Applying timeless investing principles to identify profitable setups, this highlights potential mispricings in the energy sector, driven by macroeconomic factors such as subdued global demand growth at 700 kb/d and Fed rate stability, while sector dynamics underscore WTI's role in U.S. production highs of 13.5 mb/d, though offset by OPEC+ cuts and oversupply fears.
🔍 SWOT Analysis  
**Strengths 💪**: WTI's proximity to major U.S. shale basins enables efficient production with AISC around $45-50 per barrel per EIA data, supporting a resilient supply chain that has driven recent rebounds from $57 lows. High liquidity in futures markets (average daily volume 1M contracts) ties into strategies for capitalizing on quick asymmetry plays in volatile commodities.
  
**Weaknesses ⚠️**: Sensitivity to global demand slowdowns, with U.S. inventories up 5% YoY, has led to 10-15% price corrections amid forecast revisions, emphasizing the need for safety in cyclical assets.  
**Opportunities 🌟**: Sanctions disrupting ~1 mb/d Russian exports and green energy transitions boosting industrial use position for 15-20% price surges on shortage signals, with metrics like forward P/Supply ratios offering re-rating potential to generate returns through market tightening.  
**Threats 🚩**: OPEC's third demand cut for 2025 (to ~700 kb/d growth) and rising non-OPEC production could trigger further 10-15% pullbacks, as seen in recent dips post-forecasts, but proven principles aid in navigating for profitable outcomes.
💰 Intrinsic Value Calculation  
Employing a value investing approach for commodities, we estimate WTI's intrinsic value using a weighted production cost and supply-demand premium model, incorporating a margin of safety as emphasized in classic methodologies to ensure actionable, money-making insights. Key inputs from EIA and IEA data: AISC ~$48 per barrel, global surplus forecast ~0.5 mb/d (reversed to deficit under sanctions), assumed growth rate 10% (based on industrial demand CAGR).  
Formula: Intrinsic Value per Barrel = (AISC * Weight) + (Surplus/Deficit Adjustment * Growth Multiplier)  
- AISC weighted at 0.6 for base costs  
- Adjustment: -0.05 (mild surplus; negative for downward pressure), Multiplier: 15 (classic: 5 + 2*5, scaled for energy volatility)  
Calculation:  
(48 * 0.6) + (-0.05 * 15) = 28.8 - 0.75 = 28.05  
Scaled to market comparables (e.g., historical Brent premium ~$5, adjusted for U.S. focus): Refined = 28.05 * 2.5 ≈ $70.13  
Apply 20% margin of safety: $70.13 * 0.8 ≈ $56.10  
At current ~$60 (post-rebound), WTICUSD appears fairly valued but undervalued by 15-20% to $70 on sanction-driven deficits—no debt flags, sustainability hinges on demand growth above 700 kb/d. 📈 Undervalued.
🚀 Entry Strategy Insights  
Rooted in time-tested disciplines for compounding wealth, seek support zones at $57-58 (near recent lows and 200-day SMA) for unleveraged, long-term positions via dollar-cost averaging, entering on breakouts above $62 after 5-10% corrections from news events. Tie non-repainting signals to viral sanctions updates for profitable timing amid volatility.
⚠️ Risk Management  
Size positions at 1-5% to preserve capital against energy swings, diversifying with renewables or bonds. Caution on 15-20% volatility from OPEC news; trailing stops 10% below entry (e.g., $54) ensure holds only on strong fundamentals, promoting sustainable profitability.
🔚 Conclusion  
WTI's rebound on sanctions buzz, supply dynamics, and undervalued profile offer principle-driven paths to 20%+ gains via mispricings and safety. Key takeaways: Track deficit forecasts for upside, verify EIA data independently. Share your thoughts in comments – does this sanctions news shift your view?
 #ValueInvesting #CrudeOil #EnergyMarkets #WTICUSD #CommodityTrading
This is educational content only; not financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.
UK brent Sells After forming the last Higher High, price failed to break new highs and dropped below recent Higher Lows – signaling a shift from bullish structure into a bearish phase. Price is now in Correction, pulling back into a broken support area that may act as resistance. An imbalance left below adds confluence for a continuation lower. Waiting for a Lower High to confirm bearish Continuation in line with the higher timeframe downtrend.
The daily chart shows price reacting from a key supply area, adding strong higher-timeframe confluence. With imbalance below and structure now bearish, a confirmed Lower High would validate continuation to the downside
Entry: 61.230
Stop Loss: 62.130
Take Profit: 57.200
CRUDE OIL Local Short! Sell!
 Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL  is reacting from the horizontal supply area after liquidity above previous highs was taken. Expect continuation to the downside as the market rebalances toward the target level.
 Sell! 
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USOIL Market Direction: Bearish Tilt Amid Downward Momentum?USOIL Market Direction: Bearish Tilt Amid Downward Momentum?
Current Price Snapshot
As of October 15, 2025, USOIL (WTI Crude Oil) is trading around $58.20 per barrel, reflecting a modest intraday uptick of approximately 0.9% from yesterday's close at $58.66. This follows a 1.39% decline on October 14, extending a broader monthly drop of over 7%. The price has been consolidating in a descending channel, with recent lows testing the $57.29–$57.60 support zone, prompting a short-term corrective bounce.
Technical Indicators
- **Trend Structure**: USOIL remains below a key descending trendline on shorter timeframes (H1–H4), signaling sustained downward pressure. A breakdown below $57.65 could accelerate the slide toward $56.00 or lower, aligning with a potential descending flag pattern.
- **Momentum Oscillators**: The RSI (14-period) is climbing from oversold territory around 31, currently near 35–40, suggesting a temporary relief rally but lacking conviction for a full reversal. The ADX at 41.78 confirms a strong prevailing downtrend.
- **Moving Averages**: Price is below the 50-day SMA ($61.55) and 200-day EMA ($59.15), with bearish crossovers reinforcing the negative bias. Key resistance clusters at $60.44–$60.75 (Fibonacci retracement levels) cap upside potential.
- **Support/Resistance**: Immediate support at $57.29–$57.80; breach targets $56.00. Overhead resistance at $60.75, with a pivot at $61.50. A close above $60.75 would invalidate the bearish setup, but current action shows rejection at these levels.
Fundamental Drivers
- **Supply Dynamics**: OPEC+ is gradually unwinding production cuts, adding ~0.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025, while non-OPEC output (led by the US at 13.5 million b/d) surges by 2.0 million b/d. This floods the market, driving global inventories higher and exerting downward force on prices. Recent US inventory builds (e.g., +1.8 million barrels in commercial crude) further signal softening demand.
- **Demand Outlook**: Resurfacing US-China trade tensions are clouding economic recovery prospects, capping industrial fuel needs. Global growth slowdowns, coupled with accelerated renewable energy investments, are projected to weaken crude consumption through 2026.
- **Geopolitical Factors**: While sanctions on Russia and Middle East risks provide occasional support, they are outweighed by ample supply. EIA forecasts Brent (closely correlated to WTI) averaging $62/bbl in Q4 2025, dropping to $52/bbl in 2026, implying further WTI weakness toward $56–$59 by year-end.
- **Macro Influences**: A strengthening USD (amid Fed hawkishness) makes oil less attractive to non-US buyers, adding to the bearish case. Broader forecasts from Reuters and LongForecast see WTI averaging $64.65 for 2025 but ending October near $52.76, a 15.5% monthly decline.
Sentiment from Market Chatter
Real-time discussions on platforms like X highlight mixed but predominantly cautious views. Some traders eye short-covering bounces toward $60, citing oversold RSI and potential OPEC data surprises, but consensus leans bearish, with calls for sub-$60 targets due to inventory builds and trade war fears. Retail signals show sporadic buy setups, but institutional positioning favors shorts.
Overall Direction and Outlook
**Bearish** – USOIL's trajectory today points downward, with the corrective uptick likely fizzling at $60 resistance. Expect continued pressure toward $57–$56 unless a decisive break above $60.75 emerges, which would shift bias to neutral. 
Monitor upcoming EIA inventory data and US-China headlines for volatility spikes. Position sizing should account for low ATR (0.40), indicating subdued near-term swings. This assessment draws from a synthesis of price action, indicators, supply-demand fundamentals, and market sentiment for a comprehensive view.
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for TodayEconomic stimulus expectations: Lowering interest rates can reduce the financing costs for enterprises and individuals, thereby promoting investment and consumption, indirectly boosting industrial production and transportation demand, and subsequently increasing the consumption of crude oil. Historical data shows that during the period of interest rate cuts, the global growth rate of crude oil demand has averaged an increase of 0.3-0.5 million barrels per day.
Inflation expectation transmission: Interest rate cuts may trigger expectations of inflation recovery in the market. Crude oil, as an inflation-hedging asset, its financial attributes will attract funds to flow into the futures market, further pushing up prices.
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today
buy:59.5-60
tp:61-61.5
sl:58.5
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for TodayThe current WTI oil price of $61.2 is not merely a fluctuation center, but rather a "multiplier window" formed by the resonance of three core variables - "cost floor, geopolitical breakthrough, and sentiment correction" - indicating a "structural contradiction-driven short-term trend". It is clear that this is a "wave-like market phenomenon" rather than a trend reversal. However, the short-term upward momentum is highly certain:
The cost floor is clearly defined, with $60 being the "iron bottom".
The new well production break-even cost of US shale oil has reached $63 per barrel. The current price of $61.2 is already below the marginal production cost line. From the data, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US has dropped to 424 (a decrease of 60 compared to the previous year), and if the oil price remains below $60, the shale oil production may be reduced by 1-1.5 million barrels per day next year. The supply contraction expectation has been priced in in advance. At the same time, non-OECD countries are accelerating their replenishment of stocks at low prices, forming "non-tradable inventories" to absorb excess supply, further strengthening the support at $60. The geopolitical sanctions are intensifying, leading to a structural rift in the supply side.
After the US imposed secondary sanctions on Russian oil, India's 1.7 million barrels per day Russian oil long-term contract faces the risk of termination. This part of the demand is now shifting to the spot market in the Middle East, directly pushing the Dubai crude oil premium to $2.1 per barrel (a 3-month high). More importantly, the actual spare capacity of OPEC+ has been seriously overestimated - Saudi Arabia's actual spare capacity is only 60-100 thousand barrels per day, far below the claimed 2.43 million barrels per day, and the OPEC+ has only increased production by 61% for five consecutive months, highlighting the capacity bottleneck and inability to fill potential supply gaps.
The market sentiment is overly pessimistic, with a significant recovery space.
As of October 23rd, the speculative net long position has dropped to a historical low. When Brent oil price fell below $60, 80% of traders held a bearish stance, forming a typical "extreme emotional state". However, the month spread structure still remains positive (Backwardation), not entering the Contango structure, indicating that the spot market does not have a real surplus. The previous decline was more dominated by sentiment, and the demand for recovery is strong.
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today
buy:61-61.3
tp:61.6-61.9
SL:60
USOIL WILL FALL|SHORT|
 ✅CRUDE OIL/b] after engineering liquidity above the recent high, price reacted sharply from the 4H supply area, suggesting distribution by institutional players. With buy-side liquidity swept, the market now looks poised to rebalance inefficiency below the $61 handle. Time Frame 4H.
 SHORT🔥
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WTI bounce in the making?WTI crude has now delivered two failed breaks beneath $60 support, the latter delivering a doji candle on the daily timeframe, producing the second part of a potential three-candle morning star pattern. With risk sentiment perking up again as traders anticipate a likely deal between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping to reset trade relations between the U.S. and China, you could argue from a fundamental perspective that it may support crude prices in the near term. That outcome would likely see the bullish reversal pattern completed.
Traders could position for such an outcome by initiating longs above $60, with a stop beneath the lows of the prior session to protect against a resumption of the prior bearish trend. The obvious target would be the 50-day moving average, where the price was capped late last week.
The message from momentum indicators is a neutral one, with RSI (14) flatlining near 50 while MACD has crossed the signal line from below and is now pushing back towards positive territory. The signal favours putting more emphasis on price action in the near term.
Good luck!
DS






















