CRUDE OIL Local Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL price is reacting inside a major supply zone, suggesting a potential shift as liquidity begins to unwind. If orderflow confirms, price may slide back toward the target level as SMC dynamics align with bearish distribution. Time Frame 2H.
Sell!
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Market insights
Is a sharp move in oil close?A relatively long-term analysis of oil is giving the signal that there’s a possibility of a sharp move down toward $65 per barrel. So on the lower timeframes, we can look for entries and quicker triggers to catch this move. My personal view is that a sharp move is forming.
Next UP OIL, i think its time to change direction nowwe are gonna be buying oil again very soon, i dont think it will go much high as it used to be while Trump is in charge but we are likely to see good profit on this,
targets are 65-69 for short term 78 for mid-long term and after that we will see how is everything shaping up.
WTI Oil - Price Squeeze
Fundamental backdrop
Global supply continues to outpace demand: new data shows world oil output rising sharply while demand growth remains modest, pushing inventories up toward multi-year highs.
Still, recent geopolitical tensions — including strikes on Russian infrastructure — have kept a risk-premium intact, helping crude avoid a steeper slide.
Technical view
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading around US $59–60/barrel, just above a key support zone near $56.00. The chart shows a wedge-like consolidation, suggesting volatility could erupt soon. Meanwhile, Bollinger Bands are narrowing — a typical “squeeze” that often precedes a breakout (in either direction).
Momentum is flat: the relative strength index (RSI) hovers near 50, and price remains below the 50-day moving average — technically neutral, but prone to sudden moves.
If oil breaks up from the wedge and tops the narrowing Bollinger Bands, a rally toward $62–65 is plausible. But with strong oversupply and soft demand, a breakdown below $56 could trigger a deeper slide — possibly into the mid-$50s.
WTI Crude – Macro Cycle OutlookWTI continues to track a dominant long-term cycle rhythm that has consistently produced major swing highs and lows across the past decade. The current positioning suggests we’re nearing the late stage of a down-cycle, which historically leads to accumulation, volatility compression, and eventual expansion.
The shorter oscillation (blue cycle) has been driving tradable swings roughly every 72 weeks, while the broader composite cycle (purple) points to a larger structural trough forming into the 2025–2026 window. If that timing holds, the coming quarters may represent a transitional regime.
CCI remains depressed but not capitulated, consistent with the “late descending phase” where momentum exhaustion precedes reversal but price can still grind lower.
CYCLE TAKEAWAY:
1. Late in down-cycle
2. Transitional phase likely
3. Potential for major cycle low into 2025–2026
4. Upside expansion historically follows these troughs
As always, cycles provide timing context, not trade signals – confirmation comes from price and momentum turning, not dates on a chart.
Not financial advice – sharing my cycle work for research and discussion.
Oil Price Update – Clean & Clear ExplanationOil (1-hour timeframe) analysis focused on a potential sell (short) opportunity. Price is currently trading around 59.40, inside a marked supply zone where previous selling pressure has appeared.
A possible scenario is illustrated:
• Price may push slightly higher into the upper part of the supply zone.
• After that small pullback or retest, the expectation is a downward move.
• The projected sell-off extends toward two key target zones:
Target Points;
1. First target area around 58.50
2. Final target area near 57.50,
Overall, the chart communicates a clean retest-and-drop structure, expecting price to react bearishly from supply and continue downward toward the next major support.
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Oil, Numbers, and Energy Flows: Decoding December’s Symbolic PulThe 3 December 2025 candle closed at 59.10, which from a numerology perspective can be interpreted as 5 + 9 = 14, and 1 + 4 = 5, symbolising volatility and rapid shifts. The decimals — 10 = 1 + 0 = 1 — represent initiation and new beginnings.
From this, we can conclude that 4 December may bring significant volatility. Perhaps developments involving the USA and Venezuela could emerge — just a thought we wanted to share for educational purposes.
WTI Crude downtrend continuation resistance at 6980The WTI Crude continues to display a bearish outlook, in line with the prevailing downward trend. Recent price action suggests a corrective pullback, potentially setting up for another move lower if resistance holds.
Key Level: 5980
This zone, previously a consolidation area, now acts as a significant resistance level.
Bearish Scenario (rejection at 5980):
A failed test and rejection at 5980 would likely resume the bearish momentum.
Downside targets include:
5796 – Initial support
5728 – Intermediate support
5667 – Longer-term support level
Bullish Scenario (breakout above 5980):
A confirmed breakout and daily close above 5980 would invalidate the bearish setup.
In that case, potential upside resistance levels are:
6025 – First resistance
6100 – Further upside target
Conclusion
WTI Crude remains under bearish pressure, with the 5980 level acting as a key inflection point. As long as price remains below this level, the bias favours further downside. Traders should watch for price confirmation around that level to assess the next move.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
WTI Outlook: Downtrend Bias vs. Bullish HoldFrom a weekly timeframe perspective, crude’s price action has been trending within a downward-sloping parallel channel since October 24, inside a larger downtrending channel from June 2025, which itself sits within an even broader downtrend dating back to December 2023. This multi-layered structure frames the overall bias as bearish and defines the key levels that must be breached to shift the outlook from short-term movements toward a more favorable long-term structure.
Starting with the one-month channel:
• Key upside breakout levels lie at the 60-mark.
• The next resistance sits near the upper boundary of the six-month channel at 62.60.
• A confirmed close above this level could extend gains toward the two-year channel boundary at 66.40 first, then 70, before confirming a longer-term bullish breakout structure.
On the downside, beginning with the one-month channel again:
• A sustained hold below 56 is expected to extend declines toward the six-month channel support at 55.
• A confirmed close below 55 could extend losses toward the original long-term channel boundary at 49, offering another potential buy-the-dip opportunity.
A possible double-bottom reversal pattern could emerge, either from the 55 low or from the 49 low, for a longer-term rebound. However, as long as price remains within the bounds of the downtrending channel established since 2023, the broader bearish bias is expected to persist.
The key levels mentioned above remain the main dividing lines between structural bullish and bearish shifts in crude oil, despite the complex mix of fundamental drivers shaping the market.
- Razan Hilal, CMT
WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) – 30-Minute Analysis1. Bullish Rejection at Support
Price is holding above the 58.40–58.50 demand zone, showing strong rejection and signs of buyer interest.
2. Long Setup Active
Entry: 58.50–58.70
Stop Loss: Below 58.25
Target: 59.90–60.00
This provides a solid risk-to-reward structure.
3. Structure Outlook
Market is attempting to form a higher low. A break above 59.20 may confirm bullish continuation.
4. Key Levels
Support: 58.30 / 58.50
Resistance: 59.20 / 59.60 / 60.00
Short-term bias: Bullish as long as the support zone holds.
WTI OIL targeting at least $56.00 on the short-term.WTI Oil (USOIL) continues to expand its 4-month Channel Down and has repeatedly been rejected on its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) in the past 40 days.
As mentioned before, this is similar to September's price action, which eventually tested the previous Support before breaking it and move to a new Lower Low on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, we are still expecting to see $56.00 on the short-term.
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Usoil Next Selling Move Analysis Read the DescrpitionUSOIL with technical analysis drawn on it. A green rising channel highlights a previous uptrend, which has been broken downward. Pink horizontal zones mark resistance and support areas. A downward arrow points toward a labeled “Target level,” suggesting a bearish expectation after price breaks below the support zone.
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USOIL Is Bearish! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for USOIL.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 59.116.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 58.630 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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USOIL: Wait for a pullback to $59 to buy.During Monday’s Asian trading session, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures rose 1.7%, trading around $59.30 per barrel. Oil prices opened strongly as OPEC+ agreed to halt production increases starting from Q1 2026, providing solid buying support at the open.
On the 1-hour chart, crude oil is showing high-level consolidation, with prices repeatedly oscillating around the moving average system, indicating a short-term neutral, range-bound objective trend.
However, from a subjective trend perspective, the bias remains to the upside. The MACD fast and slow lines have pulled back toward the zero axis and are about to form a bullish crossover, suggesting that bullish momentum is building.
There is a high probability that crude oil will break to new intraday highs today.
Intraday Trading Plan:
Buy near: $59.00
Take Profit 1: $60.00
Take Profit 2: $60.50
Stop-loss: Adjust based on individual risk tolerance
Absorption Pattern & Potential Reversal to $61After a significant downtrend from the $66.00 highs down to the $56.00 region, WTI Crude Oil is showing signs of a structural shift on the 1H timeframe. Here is the technical breakdown suggesting a bullish recovery.
1. Market Structure & Price Action The market has stopped making lower lows. Instead, we have established a Higher Low (HL) at roughly $57.50, compared to the capitulation low at ~$56.00. This is the first sign of a potential trend change. The price is currently reacting aggressively from this support zone, pushing back towards the $59.40 level.
The immediate obstacle is the psychological $60.00 level and the local supply zone around $59.50. A breakout above this area would confirm the reversal.
2. Order Flow & CVD A crucial observation on the lower timeframe data is the divergence between Price and CVD.
The CVD remains negative (Red values on the bottom left), indicating that aggressive market selling is still present.
Interpretation: Despite this selling pressure, price is not making new lows. Instead, it is holding structure and rising.
Conclusion: This indicates Absorption. Large passive buyers (Limit Bids) are absorbing the sell-side liquidity. The sellers are expending effort but getting no result (price drop). Once the sellers are exhausted, the path of least resistance is up.
3. Trade Setup (Long Position)
Based on the absorption at support and the formation of a Higher Low, I am looking for a rotation back to the upper range.
Direction: LONG
Entry Zone: Current Market Price ($59.35) or on a retest of $59.00.
Invalidation / Stop Loss: $57.20.
Reasoning: This is placed below the recent Higher Low structure. If price breaks this level, the absorption thesis has failed, and the downtrend will likely continue to $55.
Target: $61.90.
Reasoning: Major swing high / supply zone.
USOIL – Technical & Fundamental OutlookTechnical:
USOIL continues to struggle below the $60.00 level, showing mixed intraday structure but rejecting the $59.80–60.00 zone multiple times. Buyers remain active near $58.00, forming a short-term higher-low sequence, but no clear breakout yet.
Fundamental:
Oil is being pressured by uncertainty over global demand, while OPEC+ decisions and U.S. inventory data keep volatility alive. Any surprise in production cuts or stockpile reports could push price sharply.
Key:
Decision point remains $60.00.
Break above = bullish continuation.
Failure = return toward $58.00.






















