ROADMAP FOR OIL: Volatility Now, a Geopolitical Spark LaterThis isn't an update because the outlook has changed—it's been remarkably stable for months and even couple of years. Instead, this is about connecting the dots as we potentially approach a major inflection point.
Here’s the core idea: major geopolitical events aren't the drivers of crowd sentiment and price action. It's the other way around. Events like OPEC decisions or strikes on Iran happen when social mood has reached a tipping point, pushing politicians to act. These events cause volatility spikes on the chart but don't change the underlying trend; they simply create the corrective waves within it.
The chart is telling us that after the upcoming decline we're anticipating (based on wave count and indicators), a very powerful rally is due. This implies a major geopolitical catalyst, likely in late 2025 or 2026. Crucially, this spike will itself be just a large corrective wave up, setting the stage for the next major leg down in price.
The Technical Setup:
We're inside a complex double zigzag - - correction. The current (X) wave should unfold as either a combination (W)-(X)-(Y) or a flat pattern (A)-(B)-(C). A key tenet is that the trendline connecting the tops of and shouldn't be broken. That line is hard to define right now, which tells me the high for wave isn't in yet. This points to sustained and elevated volatility in the coming months.
The Big Picture (The Supercycle):
COVID likely marked the absolute bottom for energy prices. We are now in a major multi-decade upward supercycle. However, this cycle is so vast that we are still in its very first large wave. The entire corrective phase we're in now began in 2022 and could last until the late 2020s, potentially culminating in a global crisis sparked by conflict, escalating into trade wars, and exacerbated by the financial system vulnerabilities everyone is now preparing for.
Layer on top of that potential US production exhaustion and a post-2030 output decline across India and Asia, and you have a perfect recipe for a powerful oil rally in the future. But that story is for the next decade. For now, fasten your seatbelts for some turbulence.
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