Short-term bullish core logic: 3 immediate signals resonatePolicy aspect: OPEC+ halts production increase takes effect, $60 defense line is firmly established
On November 3rd, OPEC+ officially announced a 2026 first-quarter production pause, with only a 12-month maintenance increase of 137,000 barrels per day. This decision precisely hedged against the "2 million barrels per day supply surplus in the first quarter" risk warned by IEA. Historical data shows that when OPEC+ voluntarily curbs production during the demand slack period, oil prices often receive a policy support premium of 1-2 weeks. Currently, $60.91 is at the stabilization stage after policy support, and $60, as the marginal cost line for US shale oil, forms a double support.
Inventory aspect: Unexpected continuous inventory reduction, demand resilience exceeds expectations
As of the week ending October 24th, US commercial crude oil inventories dropped by 6.86 million barrels (expected only a 200,000 barrel reduction), gasoline and distillate inventories decreased by 5.94 million barrels and 3.36 million barrels respectively, and all three oil product inventories were below the five-year average by 3%-8%. Although the inventory in the Cushing region increased by 1.334 million barrels month-on-month, the overall commercial inventory has cumulatively decreased by 15.9 million barrels, coupled with the import volume dropping to a 2021 low (510 million barrels per day), the short-term supply-demand tight balance pattern has not changed, providing substantial support for oil prices.
Technical aspect: Bottom formation begins, rebound momentum starts
$60.91 is at the upper edge of the "56.93-61.65" oscillation range, the daily line presents a "hammer pattern + bullish engulfing" combination pattern, and since late October, a clear bottom reversal signal has been formed;
Momentum indicators improve simultaneously: RSI has rebounded from the oversold range to 41, the MACD red bar begins to expand, and after the price stabilizes at the $60 key level, speculative long positions have returned 38,000 contracts in a week, the financial support has strengthened.
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today
sell：61-61.5
tp:60.5-60
sl:62
