wti 1h🔹 Overall Outlook and Potential Price Movements
In the charts above, we have outlined the overall outlook and possible price movement paths.
As shown, each analysis highlights a key support or resistance zone near the current market price. The market’s reaction to these zones — whether a breakout or rejection — will likely determine the next direction of the price toward the specified levels.
⚠️ Important Note:
The purpose of these trading perspectives is to identify key upcoming price levels and assess potential market reactions. The provided analyses are not trading signals in any way.
✅ Recommendation for Use:
To make effective use of these analyses, it is advised to manually draw the marked zones on your chart. Then, on the 5-minute time frame, monitor the candlestick behavior and look for valid entry triggers before making any trading decisions.
Trade ideas
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for TodayMarginal improvement signals have emerged, and consumer resilience exceeded expectations.
The demand for replenishment in Asia has been concentratedly released: In November, China's petrochemical refineries received an additional 15 million tons of crude oil import quotas (approximately 300,000 barrels per day). In the first half of November, China's crude oil imports increased by 12% year-on-year, and the purchasing focus shifted to WTI-related varieties, which led to an increase in U.S. crude oil export volume from 5.4 million barrels per day to 5.8 million barrels per day (reaching a new high since October), forming a "import - export" positive cycle.
Heating oil demand started earlier than expected: In the first ten days of November in North America, the temperature was 3-5℃ lower than the average. The price of heating oil futures in the New York port rose by 4.2% in a week, and the output of heating oil by refineries increased by 8% month-on-month, which led to the continuous reduction of distillate oil inventories and indirectly stimulated the demand for crude oil purchases.
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today
buy:59.5-60
tp:60.5-61
sl:61.5
WTI Crude resistance at 6160The WTI Crude Oil is currently trading with a bearish bias, aligned with the broader downward trend. Recent price action shows a retest of the longer term support, suggesting a temporary relief rally within the downtrend.
Key resistance is located at 6160, a prior consolidation zone. This level will be critical in determining the next directional move.
A bearish rejection from 6160 could confirm the resumption of the downtrend, targeting the next support levels at 5946, followed by 5845 and 5780 over a longer timeframe.
Conversely, a decisive breakout and daily close above 6160 would invalidate the current bearish setup, shifting sentiment to bullish and potentially triggering a move towards 6215, then 6300.
Conclusion:
The short-term outlook remains bearish unless the WTI Crude price breaks and holds above 6160. Traders should watch for price action signals around this key level to confirm direction. A rejection favours fresh downside continuation, while a breakout signals a potential trend reversal or deeper correction.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
USOIL BULLS ARE STRONG HERE|LONG
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 60.06
Target Level: 60.65
Stop Loss: 59.67
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 2h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for TodayU.S. crude oil inventories have exceeded expectations for three consecutive weeks of decline, easing the pressure in Cushing.
The latest EIA data (as of the week ending November 1) shows that U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 5.8 million barrels on a month-on-month basis (expected - 2.2 million barrels), with the scale of decline in the past three weeks exceeding market expectations, and a cumulative reduction of 12.6 million barrels. The core Cushing region's inventories ended the previous four weeks of consecutive increases and decreased by 1.2 million barrels on a month-on-month basis (to 35 million barrels, 8% lower than the 5-year average), shifting from "accumulation pressure" to "tight balance". This data directly dispelled market concerns about "more than 2 million barrels per day of accumulation in the fourth quarter", and $61 became the strong bottom range supported by inventories.
Global major consumption areas' inventories have improved simultaneously, verifying the resilience of demand
European ARA region's crude oil inventories dropped to 43 million barrels (a 12% year-on-year decrease), China's commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.5 million barrels on a month-on-month basis (with the start of refinery replenishment demand), and Japan's crude oil inventories also decreased by 5% compared to the previous month. Global major consumption areas' inventories have simultaneously declined, confirming that terminal demand is not "unilaterally weak", but rather shows "overall resilience under regional differentiation", providing cross-regional supply and demand support for oil prices.
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today
buy:60.8-61
tp:61.8-62.5
sl:60.4
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for TodayPrecise control of production increase pace, directly addressing the pain point of the demand off-season
On November 2nd, the eight core member countries of OPEC + reached a key decision: in December 2025, they will maintain a slight increase of 137,000 barrels per day, but in the first quarter of 2026, they will completely suspend further production increases. This decision precisely hedged against the risk of "a record 4 million barrels per day surplus in 2026" as warned by the IEA. By freezing the supply increase in the weakest demand quarter (with demand possibly dropping by 2-3 million barrels per day in February and March), it forms a substantive "price protection and stabilization measure". Compared with the previous market concerns about "continuous production increase", the policy shift brought about a difference in expectations, providing strong support for oil prices. $60 became the implicit bottom line for the OPEC + policy to support the market.
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today
buy:60.8-61
tp:61.8-62.5
sl:60.4
Crude oil review - 03/11/2025Oil prices climbed after OPEC+ announced a modest output hike for next month, followed by a production pause through the first quarter of next year. The move signals the group’s acknowledgment of a growing supply surplus in 2026, despite earlier price declines due to concerns about oversupply. While tighter U.S. sanctions on Russian producers have added some uncertainty to supply forecasts, overall market conditions remain skewed toward excess production. Additional risks include disruptions from a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian oil facility and political instability in Nigeria, which could affect output and shipping flows.
On the technical side, the crude oil price has retested the major technical resistance at $62 and corrected to the downside since. Currently, the price is testing the resistance of the 50-day simple moving average and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the daily range. The Bollinger Bands are still expanded, indicating that volatility in the crude oil market remains high, while the Stochastic oscillator is near extreme overbought levels, suggesting a potential bearish correction in the upcoming sessions. If this becomes reality, the first area of potential support may be seen around the $60 level, which is the psychological support of the round number. The second area of support might be found around $58, which corresponds to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness
wti 1h🔹 Overall Outlook and Potential Price Movements
In the charts above, we have outlined the overall outlook and possible price movement paths.
As shown, each analysis highlights a key support or resistance zone near the current market price. The market’s reaction to these zones — whether a breakout or rejection — will likely determine the next direction of the price toward the specified levels.
⚠️ Important Note:
The purpose of these trading perspectives is to identify key upcoming price levels and assess potential market reactions. The provided analyses are not trading signals in any way.
✅ Recommendation for Use:
To make effective use of these analyses, it is advised to manually draw the marked zones on your chart. Then, on the 5-minute time frame, monitor the candlestick behavior and look for valid entry triggers before making any trading decisions.
The attack committee's risk has triggered supply anxietyDirect supply disruption risk: 900,000 barrels/day capacity at risk of zeroing out
The current daily crude oil production in Venezuela is 940,000 barrels (accounting for 0.9% of the global total). Although the absolute scale is limited, as the only OPEC oil-producing country not subject to production quotas, its production capacity has strategic resilience. Actions such as the arrival of US B-1B bombers and the deployment of the "Ford" aircraft carrier strike group in the Caribbean Sea, if escalated to military strikes, the core facilities of PDVSA, such as Lake Maracaibo oil field (accounting for 60% of the capacity) and Jose Port (the only deep-water oil port), will be directly paralyzed. Short-term exports may drop from 900,000 barrels/day to zero, forming a dual supply shock of "sanctions + war".
Replacement supply gap difficult to fill: OPEC+ remaining capacity in crisis
Currently, the total remaining capacity of OPEC+ is only 210,000 barrels/day, and it is concentrated in Saudi Arabia (180,000 barrels/day). If combined with the sanctions on Iran and disruptions in Red Sea transportation, Saudi Arabia needs to increase production by 170,000 barrels/day to fill the gap, which is close to its maximum idle capacity limit. Although US shale oil has potential, due to capital discipline restrictions, the maximum monthly increase in production is only 30,000 barrels/day, far from covering the supply vacuum in Venezuela. The price spread of heavy crude oil (the main type in Venezuela) has expanded from 1.2 US dollars to 1.8 US dollars, and structural tension has emerged.
Market sentiment preview: Risk premium accelerating inclusion
Historical data shows that after the US imposed sanctions on PDVSA in 2019, the weekly fluctuation range of oil prices expanded to 8%; while the impact intensity of military conflicts is 3-5 times that of sanctions - the oil facilities in Iran were attacked in 2019 (similar supply disruption), pushing oil prices to surge by 7.3% in a single day. Currently, the CFTC crude oil volatility index has risen from 18 to 25, and funds have begun to layout geopolitical risks in advance. The premium of near-month contracts over far-month contracts has expanded to 1.2 US dollars, reflecting short-term supply concerns.
Next week's crude oil trading strategy
buy:59.5-60
tp:61-61.50
sl:58.5
Next week's crude oil trading strategyGeopolitical Dimension: Rising Military Risks from the US to Venezuela, Becoming the Largest Uncertain Variable
Expected escalation of military operations, supply disruption risk premium
On October 31, Western media disclosed that the Trump administration is considering upgrading the military operation against Venezuela from maritime drug interdiction to ground-based air strikes, involving facilities such as naval bases and airport runways. The target list has been evaluated. Venezuela's current daily crude oil production is 940,000 barrels. If the military strike is implemented, its core oil fields and port facilities may be paralyzed, and short-term exports may drop to zero, creating a sudden supply gap. Although Trump did not explicitly deny it and the probability of actual actions before the election is affected by political games, the market has already begun to incorporate geopolitical risk premiums. The CFTC crude oil volatility index has risen from 18 to 25.
The Interaction between Russia and Venezuela Adds Uncertainty
The Maduro regime has urgently sought military support from Russia, including the supply of anti-missile missile systems and the upgrade of weapons maintenance. The Venezuelan transportation minister has secretly visited Moscow to hand over a personal letter. If Russia intervenes, it may intensify the geopolitical game in Latin America and further disrupt the crude oil supply chain; however, Russia has already invested a large amount of resources in the Ukraine issue, and the possibility of direct military intervention is low. It is more likely to respond in a "low-intensity" manner.
Next week's crude oil trading strategy
buy:60-60.5
tp:61.5-62
sl:59
Crude Oil's Critical Breakdown: Is a Plunge to $58 Imminent?Hello, TradingView community! 👋 SpotCrude (WTI) has taken a significant turn, closing the week at a precarious 61.168 . After failing to sustain its recent rally, oil is now teetering on the edge of a major support level. Is this the beginning of a new downtrend, or will buyers step in to defend the line? The upcoming week, November 3rd to 7th, will be decisive.
Let's drill down into the multi-timeframe data, blending classic technical theories with key indicators to forge a robust trading strategy for the days ahead. 💡
🌍 The Macro Outlook: Weekly & Daily Charts - The Bears Are Back in Town
The market is a battlefield, and the trend is your strongest ally.
The higher timeframes are flashing significant warning signals, suggesting the recent strength was merely a correction in a larger downtrend.
Weekly Chart (1W) : The long-term picture remains bearish. As per Dow Theory , the primary trend is down, with the recent push higher failing at a key resistance zone. The price is firmly below the Ichimoku Cloud, and the formation of a Bearish Engulfing candle last week is a powerful rejection signal.
Daily Chart (1D) : On the daily chart, the story of failure becomes clearer. We have a potential Double Top formation right at a major resistance level. The RSI is exhibiting a clear bearish divergence where price made a higher high, but the RSI failed to confirm, indicating weakening momentum. The price has been decisively rejected and is now threatening to break down from this topping pattern.
⚔️ The Swing Trader's Battleground: 4-Hour & 1-Hour Analysis
For swing traders, a classic and powerful reversal pattern has taken center stage.
4-Hour Chart (4H) : This timeframe is the most critical. A clear Head and Shoulders pattern has formed, and crucially, the price has already broken below the neckline . This is a textbook bearish reversal signal. The Bollinger Bands are expanding, pointing to an injection of downside volatility . From a Wyckoff Theory standpoint, this breakdown represents a "Sign of Weakness" (SOW) following a distribution phase at the highs.
1-Hour Chart (1H) : The hourly chart confirms the breakdown with conviction. Price is trading well below the VWAP and the Ichimoku Cloud, both of which are now acting as overhead resistance. Any attempt to rally back to the broken neckline (around the 62.00-62.20 area) is likely to be met with significant selling pressure.
🔬 The Intraday Scalpel: 30M, 15M, & 5M Insights
For intraday traders, the path of least resistance is clearly down.
30M/15M Charts : These timeframes are displaying a strong, impulsive downtrend. Following the initial breakdown, we are seeing the formation of a Bearish Pennant or flag. This typically represents a brief pause as sellers reload for the next push lower. The RSI is hovering near oversold levels, so a minor bounce is possible, but this is likely a selling opportunity, not a reversal.
5M Chart : On the 5-minute chart, the VWAP is the key level to watch. As long as the price remains below it, bears are in full control. Scalpers should be wary of any sudden spikes upward, as they could be a bear trap designed to lure in buyers before the next decline. Watch for volume to increase on down moves as confirmation of the bearish intent.
⏳ Gann Theory & Price/Time Analysis
Applying the principles of W.D. Gann, the rejection occurred at a key Gann resistance angle. The price has now broken below a key support angle, suggesting an acceleration of the downtrend. Gann's range analysis points to the $58.00 - $58.50 area as the next major price magnet to the downside.
🎯 Actionable Trade Plan for the Week Ahead
Based on this comprehensive analysis, the bearish case is overwhelmingly strong.
The Primary Bearish Scenario 🐻
Entry: The ideal entry is to short a pullback to the broken Head and Shoulders neckline, targeting the 62.00 - 62.20 resistance zone. An alternative entry is to short the breakdown of the current bearish pennant, below 61.00 .
Targets: The first target is the psychological 60.00 level. The main target, derived from the Head and Shoulders pattern measurement, is the major support zone at 58.50 .
Invalidation: A strong and sustained 4H candle close back above the right shoulder of the pattern, specifically above 63.00 , would negate the immediate bearish thesis.
The Low-Probability Bullish Scenario 🐂
Entry: This is a counter-trend trade and is not recommended. It would require an exceptionally strong reclaim of the 62.50 level, effectively invalidating the entire Head and Shoulders pattern.
Targets: Resistance at 63.50 and 64.50 .
Invalidation: Any drop back below 62.00 .
Conclusion: The Evidence Points Down
The technical picture for Crude Oil is decidedly bearish. With a confirmed Head and Shoulders breakdown on the 4H chart, supported by weakness on both higher and lower timeframes, the path of least resistance is to the downside.
This week, the strategy is to sell the rallies . Be patient and wait for a high-probability entry near established resistance.
What are your thoughts on oil? Are you positioning for a further drop, or do you see a reversal in the cards? Share your analysis in the comments below! 👇
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research and manage your risk appropriately.
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for TodayThe spot market and capital are in resonance, and short-term support is clear.
1.Strengthening of spot structure: The near-month WTI contract has returned to a spot premium structure, and the Brent-WTI spread is stable, reflecting the expectation of short-term supply tightness and providing a fundamental support for the current price.
2.Dual benefits of inventory and capital: U.S. EIA inventories have been reduced for several consecutive weeks, and the latest published value is significantly lower than expected, confirming the marginal improvement in demand; trend trading funds have recently increased their long positions, driving short-term short-squeeze momentum.
3.Cost and reserve support: Warren Buffett's Western Oil holdings imply a long-term equilibrium price of WTI at approximately $58.2, and the current price of $60.26 is close to the value support range; the U.S. SPR is at its lowest level since 1990, reducing its ability to stabilize oil prices and strengthening the bottom support.
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today
buy:59.5-60
tp:61-61.5
sl:58.5
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for TodayThe conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, and the reconstruction of supply chains takes a long time.
The short-term conflict between Russia and Ukraine is unlikely to be resolved. Russian oil needs to rely on shadow fleets for transportation, but currently the discount is only 1-2 US dollars (far lower than the historical level of 10-20 US dollars), and there is insufficient willingness from third parties to take over. The reconstruction of supply chains is expected to take more than 3 months, and during this period, a supply gap of 100-150 thousand barrels per day will continue to support oil prices.
The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has risen, and loose liquidity is beneficial.
The market expects a higher probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in November and December. The loose liquidity environment will be beneficial for crude oil and other risky assets, while lowering the US dollar index and reducing the purchase cost of non-US currencies, stimulating the demand for replenishment in emerging markets.
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today
buy:59.5-60
tp:61-61.560
sl:58.5
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for TodayEconomic stimulus expectations: Lowering interest rates can reduce the financing costs for enterprises and individuals, thereby promoting investment and consumption, indirectly boosting industrial production and transportation demand, and subsequently increasing the consumption of crude oil. Historical data shows that during the period of interest rate cuts, the global growth rate of crude oil demand has averaged an increase of 0.3-0.5 million barrels per day.
Inflation expectation transmission: Interest rate cuts may trigger expectations of inflation recovery in the market. Crude oil, as an inflation-hedging asset, its financial attributes will attract funds to flow into the futures market, further pushing up prices.
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today
buy:59.5-60
tp:61-61.5
sl:58.5
WTICUSD: Post-Sanctions 5% Rebound Hints at 20% WTICUSD: Post-Sanctions 5% Rebound Hints at 20% Upside Amid Supply Constraints – SWOT, Price Action, and Intrinsic Value Insights
📊 Introduction
As of October 30, 2025, WTICUSD (WTI Crude Oil) is showing signs of a tentative rebound after recent volatility, rising 5% over the past week to trade around $60 per barrel on increased volume following U.S. sanctions on Russian firms like Rosneft and Lukoil.
This price action reflects a partial recovery from October lows near $57, amid viral social media discussions on supply disruptions (#OilSanctions trending with 600K+ mentions). Applying timeless investing principles to identify profitable setups, this highlights potential mispricings in the energy sector, driven by macroeconomic factors such as subdued global demand growth at 700 kb/d and Fed rate stability, while sector dynamics underscore WTI's role in U.S. production highs of 13.5 mb/d, though offset by OPEC+ cuts and oversupply fears.
🔍 SWOT Analysis
**Strengths 💪**: WTI's proximity to major U.S. shale basins enables efficient production with AISC around $45-50 per barrel per EIA data, supporting a resilient supply chain that has driven recent rebounds from $57 lows. High liquidity in futures markets (average daily volume 1M contracts) ties into strategies for capitalizing on quick asymmetry plays in volatile commodities.
**Weaknesses ⚠️**: Sensitivity to global demand slowdowns, with U.S. inventories up 5% YoY, has led to 10-15% price corrections amid forecast revisions, emphasizing the need for safety in cyclical assets.
**Opportunities 🌟**: Sanctions disrupting ~1 mb/d Russian exports and green energy transitions boosting industrial use position for 15-20% price surges on shortage signals, with metrics like forward P/Supply ratios offering re-rating potential to generate returns through market tightening.
**Threats 🚩**: OPEC's third demand cut for 2025 (to ~700 kb/d growth) and rising non-OPEC production could trigger further 10-15% pullbacks, as seen in recent dips post-forecasts, but proven principles aid in navigating for profitable outcomes.
💰 Intrinsic Value Calculation
Employing a value investing approach for commodities, we estimate WTI's intrinsic value using a weighted production cost and supply-demand premium model, incorporating a margin of safety as emphasized in classic methodologies to ensure actionable, money-making insights. Key inputs from EIA and IEA data: AISC ~$48 per barrel, global surplus forecast ~0.5 mb/d (reversed to deficit under sanctions), assumed growth rate 10% (based on industrial demand CAGR).
Formula: Intrinsic Value per Barrel = (AISC * Weight) + (Surplus/Deficit Adjustment * Growth Multiplier)
- AISC weighted at 0.6 for base costs
- Adjustment: -0.05 (mild surplus; negative for downward pressure), Multiplier: 15 (classic: 5 + 2*5, scaled for energy volatility)
Calculation:
(48 * 0.6) + (-0.05 * 15) = 28.8 - 0.75 = 28.05
Scaled to market comparables (e.g., historical Brent premium ~$5, adjusted for U.S. focus): Refined = 28.05 * 2.5 ≈ $70.13
Apply 20% margin of safety: $70.13 * 0.8 ≈ $56.10
At current ~$60 (post-rebound), WTICUSD appears fairly valued but undervalued by 15-20% to $70 on sanction-driven deficits—no debt flags, sustainability hinges on demand growth above 700 kb/d. 📈 Undervalued.
🚀 Entry Strategy Insights
Rooted in time-tested disciplines for compounding wealth, seek support zones at $57-58 (near recent lows and 200-day SMA) for unleveraged, long-term positions via dollar-cost averaging, entering on breakouts above $62 after 5-10% corrections from news events. Tie non-repainting signals to viral sanctions updates for profitable timing amid volatility.
⚠️ Risk Management
Size positions at 1-5% to preserve capital against energy swings, diversifying with renewables or bonds. Caution on 15-20% volatility from OPEC news; trailing stops 10% below entry (e.g., $54) ensure holds only on strong fundamentals, promoting sustainable profitability.
🔚 Conclusion
WTI's rebound on sanctions buzz, supply dynamics, and undervalued profile offer principle-driven paths to 20%+ gains via mispricings and safety. Key takeaways: Track deficit forecasts for upside, verify EIA data independently. Share your thoughts in comments – does this sanctions news shift your view?
#ValueInvesting #CrudeOil #EnergyMarkets #WTICUSD #CommodityTrading
This is educational content only; not financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.






















