Crude Oil (H1) – Key Supply & Demand Scenarios I SEP/26/2025📌 Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation (High Probability)
Condition: Price holds above demand 64.7 – 64.8.
Entry signal: H1 bullish candle closes above 65.4 with volume → Buy.
TP: 66.0 – 66.2
SL: below 64.6
📌 Scenario 2: Pullback then Bounce
Condition: Price gets rejected at 65.3 – 65.4, pulls back to retest 64.7 – 64.8.
Entry signal: Pinbar / Bullish engulfing candle at demand zone.
TP: 65.4 → 66.0
SL: below 64.5
📌 Scenario 3: Bearish Correction
Condition: Price breaks below demand 64.7 – 64.8.
Entry signal: Retest of broken zone with bearish rejection → Sell.
TP: 63.8 – 64.0
SL: above 65.0
📌 Scenario 4: Deeper Reversal
Condition: Price breaks below 63.8 – 64.0.
Entry signal: Retest supply flip + bearish confirmation candle.
TP: 63.0 – 63.1
SL: above 64.2
USOUSD trade ideas
CRUDE OIL (WTI): More Growth Ahead
WTI Oil broke and closed above a strong rising trend line on a daily.
We see a pullback and a correctional movement now.
I think that growth will resume soon and the price will rise
to 65.55 level.
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OIL (WTI) – Trading Plan | Sep 23, 20251️⃣ Main Trend
- Overall: Short-term trend has shifted to bullish, but still needs confirmation at the 63.9–64.2 supply area.
- On H1: After a strong decline, price broke the downtrend line and bounced sharply.
- Currently, price has surged from the 62.0 area up to 63.8, touching a key resistance zone.
2️⃣ Potential Price Zones
Nearest Resistance:
- 63.97 (Swing POC – key balance zone + supply zone).
- 64.27 (Swing VAH – previous distribution high).
Key Support:
- 63.05 (Swing VAL – first dynamic support).
- 62.40–62.50 (confluence of demand + breakout zone).
- 62.0 (psychological support level, origin of the strong bullish leg).
3️⃣ Price Behavior
- Price rallied vertically, breaking the downtrend line → buyers are dominant.
- However, the latest H1 candle left a long upper wick at 63.9 → showing short-term selling pressure.
- If price holds above 63.05, the bullish trend may extend towards 64.2.
- If 63.05 breaks → high probability that price will retest 62.4 or even deeper to 62.0.
4️⃣ Candlestick Patterns
- Consecutive long-bodied bullish candles show strong buyer control.
- The most recent candle at 63.9 has a long upper wick → a warning signal of profit-taking.
Observation: If a bullish pin bar forms at 63.0–63.1 → confirms continuation of the trend. If a bearish engulfing forms at 63.9 → signal of a short-term reversal.
5️⃣ Trading Plan
📌 Scenario 1 – BUY at support (top priority)
Entry: 63.05 (Swing VAL).
Stop Loss: below 62.8.
Target: 63.9 → 64.2.
📌 Scenario 2 – BUY at deeper support
Entry: 62.40–62.50.
Stop Loss: below 62.0.
Target: 63.5 → 63.9.
📌 Scenario 3 – Short-term SELL (only if clear reversal candlestick signal appears)
Entry: 63.9–64.0 (Swing POC + supply zone).
Stop Loss: above 64.3.
Target: 63.1 → 62.5.
✅ Conclusion: The short-term trend has shifted to bullish after breaking the downtrend line. Priority strategy is BUY at the 63.05 or 62.4 support zones. SELL should only be considered if a strong bearish reversal candlestick signal forms at 63.9–64.2.
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Crude oil: go long on pullback to 63.8After crude oil rose yesterday, it gained upward momentum again during today's European session, with short-term trend biased toward bullish. Focus on going long when it pulls back to 63.80; if it breaks below 63.20, exit the position on the pullback. The target is 64.80. If it breaks below 63.20 during the US session, then focus on entering long positions again at the 0.5 and 0.618 support levels of the overall upward pullback later.
Daily-updated accurate signals are at your disposal. If you run into any problems while trading, these signals serve as a reliable reference—don’t hesitate to use them! I truly hope they bring you significant assistance
USOIL Is Bullish! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 8h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 64.685.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 65.824 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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USOIL H4 | Falling towards 50% Fibonacci supportBased on the H4 chart analysis, we could see the price fall to the buy entry which is a pullback support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to the take profit.
Buy entry is at 63.49, which is a pullback support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 62.26, which is a pullback support.
Take profit is at 65.65, which is a swing high resistance that is slightly above the 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
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4 Possible Scenarios for USOIL (WTI Crude Oil, H1) I SEP/24/2025Scenario 1: Price Rejects Supply Zone (63.80 – 63.94)
The Supply Zone at 63.80–63.94 has acted as a strong resistance.
If price fails to break above this zone, a short-term pullback is likely.
Nearest target: POC zone at 63.05. If this level is broken, price could move further down to the Liquidity Zone at 62.36.
👉 This is a short-term bearish scenario.
Scenario 2: Price Breaks Supply Zone and Moves Higher
If price breaks out and closes an H1 candle above 63.94, the short-term bullish trend will be confirmed.
The Supply Zone will then flip into a support area.
Next potential target: 64.50 – 65.00.
👉 This is a strong bullish scenario, but confirmation is required.
Scenario 3: Price Pulls Back to POC Zone (63.05) and Bounces
The POC zone (Point of Control) at 63.05 is a key volume balance level.
If price retraces here and strong buying pressure appears, a bounce back toward the Supply Zone (63.80–63.94) is likely.
👉 This is a sideway-accumulation then bullish scenario.
Scenario 4: Price Drops Deep into Demand Zone (61.76)
If strong selling pressure breaks through the Liquidity Zone (62.36), price may fall deeper to the Demand Zone at 61.76.
This is a key demand level where a short-term bottom could form, followed by a strong rebound.
👉 This is a deep bearish then recovery scenario.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Please manage your own risk before making any trading decisions.
Oil analysisThe oil buy trigger we gave yesterday has been activated and already hit its target. After that, we need to wait and see how the price reacts to the channel’s ceiling before making the next decision. However, with this momentum, it looks like it’s heading to break the channel’s ceiling. ✅
WTI crude oil Wave Analysis – 23 September 2025
- WTI crude oil reversed up from the key support level 61.70
- Likely to rise to resistance level 65.00
WTI crude oil recently reversed up from the key support level 61.70 (which has been reversing the price from the start of August) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 61.70 will most likely form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star – if the price closes today near the current levels.
Given the strength of the support level 61.70, WTI crude oil can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 65.00 (which stopped earlier waves a, 2 and ii).
GENERAL CONTEXTUSOIL remains in a short-term downtrend, capped by the H1 descending trendline.
Price just bounced from Demand zone ~61.85–62.00 (VAL) → showing buy-side reaction.
POC ~63.30 is the key magnet zone.
Supply zone ~63.90–64.00 (VAH) aligns with strong resistance.
📍 TRADING SCENARIOS
🟢 Scenario 1 – BUY at Demand zone (61.85–62.00 / VAL)
🔺 Conditions:
Price retests Demand zone (VAL).
Bullish reversal candles appear (Pin Bar / Engulfing M15–H1).
RSI > 30, bullish divergence confirmed.
🔹 Reason:
VAL often acts as strong support.
Confluence with Demand zone → high probability of bounce.
🎯 TP: 63.30 (POC) → 63.90 (VAH)
🛑 SL: below 61.70
🟡 Scenario 2 – SELL reaction at Supply zone (63.90–64.00 / VAH)
🔺 Conditions:
Price retests Supply zone + VAH.
Strong rejection forms (Bearish Pin Bar / Engulfing).
RSI > 70 or MACD losing momentum.
🔹 Reason:
VAH often works as distribution/profit-taking zone.
Aligns with Supply zone, high chance of pullback.
🎯 TP: 63.30 (POC) → 62.00 (VAL)
🛑 SL: above 64.20
🔴 Scenario 3 – SELL if breakdown below 61.80 (VAL)
🔺 Conditions:
H1 candle closes below 61.80.
Retest of VAL fails from below.
🔹 Reason:
Losing VAL → downtrend continuation.
Price likely seeks lower lows.
🎯 TP: 61.20 → 60.50
🛑 SL: above 62.20
⚠️ Scenario 4 – BUY breakout above 64.00 (VAH)
🔺 Conditions:
H1 candle closes firmly above 64.00.
Pullback holds above 63.90.
🔹 Reason:
Breakout of VAH + Supply zone confirms strong bullish momentum.
Could trigger a deeper rebound.
🎯 TP: 65.20 → 66.00
🛑 SL: below 63.60
📌 SUMMARY
The 61.85–62.00 (VAL/Demand zone) is the best BUY zone.
The 63.90–64.00 (VAH/Supply zone) is a potential SELL zone.
Overall bias remains bearish, but short-term bounce toward POC 63.30 is possible.
Strict risk management is required as crude oil tends to be highly volatile.
Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
US OIL WTI Long
Entry 62.46
SL 61.98
TP 63.20
This is a counter-trend setup, the main structure is still bearish.
A strong bullish candle close above 62.600 would strengthen the bullish case toward to TP2.
If 62.200 fails to hold, expect continuation lower, with next possible demand near 61.500–61.600.
Fundamentally, Oil is currently undervalued against the US Dollar index and US Bond. I will expect some value gain.
Technically:
This is a tactical long setup based on a demand zone bounce with RSI confluence. It’s a short-term play aiming for corrective upside within a broader bearish market. Partial profit-taking at TP1 is recommended, with a chance to extend gains to TP2 if momentum follows through.
USOIL TREND ANALYSISHERE we have USOIL IN 30m TIMEFRAME and ITS in down trend so we have marked all the important areas of this trend. ONCE,the market reaches that marked areas, WE WILL SHIFT TO SMALLER TIMEFRAME AND LOOK FOR TRENDSHIFT AND TAKE TRADE FOR SELL SIDE .
IMPORTANT AREAS
50 PERCENT AREA=(63.22)
75 PERCENT AREA=(63.69)
Crude oil review - DAILY - 22/09/2025Oil prices fell on Friday as concerns about abundant supply and weakening demand outweighed optimism from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate cut of the year. OPEC is easing its production cuts, Russian exports remain unaffected by sanctions, and the refinery maintenance season is set to reduce demand further.
The Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points in last week’s meeting, with hints of more cuts to come, but experts argued that such small moves won’t lift oil markets given weak fundamentals. Energy agencies have all flagged slowing demand, and a surprise 4 million-barrel build in U.S. distillate stockpiles added pressure to prices.
On the technical side, the price of crude oil has declined after finding sufficient resistance on the 50-day moving average and the 61.8% of the weekly Fibonacci retracement level. The Stochastic is still at neutral levels while the moving averages are validating the overall bearish trend in the market. The Bollinger bands are sufficiently expanded, showing that there is volatility to support any short-term spikes. In any case, the price area of $62 is still the major technical support area that the price failed to break below in the past 2 months.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness
wti 4hTrading Perspectives for the Upcoming Week
In this series of analyses, we have reviewed short-term trading perspectives and outlooks.
As can be seen, in each analysis there is a significant support/resistance zone near the current asset price. The market’s reaction to or break of this level will determine the future price trend up to the next specified levels.
Important Note: The purpose of these trading perspectives is to examine key price levels and the market’s potential reactions to them. The analyses provided are by no means trading signals!
USOIL: Strong Bearish Sentiment! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse USOIL together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 62.657 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
USOIL (WTI Crude Oil) Intraday & Swing Outlook🛢️ USOIL (WTI Crude Oil) Forecast – Intraday & Swing Outlook 🚀📉
Asset Class: USOIL (SPOTCRUDE / WTI CASH)
Last Closing Price: $62.796
Date/Time: 20th Sept 2025 – 12:50 AM UTC+4
🔍 Market Context
Crude oil remains in a volatile zone as macro factors like OPEC+ policy, global demand recovery, and geopolitical risks continue to steer momentum. Traders must prepare for short squeezes, traps, and breakout plays this week.
📊 Technical Overview
Chart Theories Applied:
📈 Elliott Waves – corrective Phase B nearing end.
🔄 Wyckoff – signs of re-accumulation spotted.
🔺 Head & Shoulders (Inverse) – potential bullish reversal.
🔮 Gann Angles & Time Cycle – short-term resistance clustering near $64.50.
🛠️ Indicators
🔵 RSI (H1) → Neutral zone (48–52).
📏 VWAP Anchored → $62.20 (support pivot).
📉 EMA 20 / EMA 50 → Bullish cross on H4 confirmed.
🎯 Bollinger Bands → Expansion phase → Expect high volatility.
🕒 Timeframe Strategies
📌 Intraday (5M / 15M / 1H / 4H)
Buy Entry (Scalp): $62.20 – $62.50 🟢
TP1: $63.20 🎯
TP2: $63.85 🎯
SL: $61.80 ❌
Sell Entry (Scalp): $63.80 – $64.20 🔴
TP1: $63.00 🎯
TP2: $62.40 🎯
SL: $64.70 ❌
📌 Swing (Daily / Weekly)
Buy Zone: $61.50 – $62.00 🟢
Targets: $65.20 / $67.40 / $70.00 🎯
Stop Loss: $60.50 ❌
Sell Zone (Rejection): $67.40 – $68.00 🔴
Targets: $64.50 / $62.20 🎯
Stop Loss: $68.80 ❌
⚠️ Risk Management
Volatility expected due to Fed rate guidance & OPEC+ commentary.
Stick to 2–3% capital risk per trade.
Watch for bull/bear traps near breakout zones.
📌 Summary
Intraday: Range $62.20 – $64.20 ⚖️
Swing: Upside bias if $61.50 holds strong 💹
Key Resistance: $64.50 / $67.40
Key Support: $61.50 / $60.50
🔥 Bias: Short-term sideways → Medium-term bullish above $61.50.
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Crude Oil: Bearish FVG in Play Amid ConsolidationFenzoFx—Crude Oil is trading at $64.18, slightly below the bearish fair value gap. The sweep of yesterday’s lows suggests potential for a test of higher resistance. Immediate support is at $63.80. If this level holds, Oil may fill the bearish FVG and test resistance at $65.00. A break above could extend gains toward $66.50.
However, if price declines and stabilizes below $63.80, the bullish outlook is invalidated. In that case, the downtrend may resume, targeting the equal lows at $62.20.
Oil’s rebound looks temporary amid various supply and demand prOil’s rebound looks temporary amid various supply and demand pressures.
Technical View
USOIL is currently rebounding from the support at 61.50, breaking above the previous swing high, while moving within a sideways range between 61.50 – 66.00, which should only be a short-term consolidation.
However, the broader trend remains bearish, as seen from series of lower swings, bearish EMAs, and the two-year Descending Channel. Once the consolidation phase ends, prices are likely to break below the lower bound downward.
So, the current rally in USOIL is expected to be only a short-term rebound, with resistance at 66.00 and at the upper bound of the descending trend channel just above 70.00.
On the downside, if USOIL falls below the lower bound of the sideways range at 61.50, it may retest the support at 55.00, the lowest point in 4.5 years, which if breaks, the prices could fall lower below 50.00.
Fundamental View
At present, oil prices are rebounding due to Fed easing expectation, which supported risk assets, while the weaker dollar is also helping to lift oil prices, which look like sentiment driven, not a solid fundamental.
Therefore, this recovery is likely only short-lived because, in the longer term, there are various pressures to the price:
Supply-side pressures :
Increased production from OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries has led to an oversupply in the oil market. For example, U.S. production at 13.4–13.6 mb/d covers most domestic needs, changing the country's positioning to a net exporter.
Demand-side pressures :
Global oil demand is slowing, particularly from China, amid sluggish global economic recovery and even recession risks in some regions, which have reduced overall energy consumption.
Growing investment in renewables and the gradual adoption of electric vehicles signal a structural transition that is likely to weigh on oil demand over the long term, reinforced by legislative bans on internal combustion engines in several countries.
Policy shifts from the US government also aim to push oil prices lower in order to control inflation.
Analysis by: Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
playing on C macroIt seems that we are on c macro, also the price just confirmed that we are on phase D. We only have to wait for the shakeout. start covering at 65.448 at least half of the position, then play aggressively with your st because we are facing a wall, however, it the wall is broken, we will start reaching higher prices till at least 68.262
this is not financial recommendations.