USOIL As earlier said about the downward move of the USOIL
OIL price is coming down to dig the earth to go to the hell.
USOUSD trade ideas
Selling pressure is starting to weakenSelling momentum is starting to weaken, as evidenced by the MACD histogram shifting from red to neutral. However, the MACD line is less close to the signal line. A reversal signal is likely imminent.
Is there a chance of a 50 basis point cut? SPX traded to new all time highs today.
Many stocks had blow off move or breakout candles.
Market makers cleared out lots of short interest today.
The employment data is starting to get worse.
A new 2 year high in initial jobless claims.
Markets rallied on dollar and yields weakness.
At some point the markets will price in a recession. Growth stocks need to be monitored closely.
We took profits on Tesla & Baidu today.
Bearish continuation?USO/USD is rising towards the resistance level, which is a pullback resistance, and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 63.20
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 64.15
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Take profit: 61.80
Why we like it:
There is a swing low support.
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CRUDE OIL (WTI): Strong Bearish Pressure
WTI Crude Oil is under a strong bearish pressure after
US CPI release today.
A bearish breakout of a support line of a flag pattern
in a clear intraday downtrend on a 4H time frame leaves
a strong confirmation.
I think that the price will reach 62.0 level soon.
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OIL Trade Setup📢 NFX Trade Update – USOIL FX:USOIL
Price pushed above $64, tagging the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, which I believe should hold. This move looks like a liquidity grab, hunting short stop-losses (our last setup included 😅). Classic SMC in play.
Now we have clearer insight: the key question is whether price respects the 23.6% Fib or extends higher. Based on strong fundamentals (recent inventory build signaling oversupply), I doubt sustained higher prices. The bearish case still holds weight.
🎥 Full breakdown and details in the video.
Oil slips on weak U.S. demand, supply glut concernsOil slips on weak U.S. demand, supply glut concerns
Oil prices dipped late Thursday as U.S. crude stocks rose 3.9M barrels, defying forecasts for a decline, while the IEA lifted supply estimates, signaling a larger surplus ahead. Losses were capped by rising geopolitical risks, with the U.S. and EU weighing tougher sanctions on Russia after fresh Ukraine-related tensions. Traders now balance bearish fundamentals with potential supply disruptions.
USOIL COMPLETING A CORRECTION BEFORE A RALLYUSOIL ANALYSIS (Hourly Timeframe)
Price is currently printinng the last leg to comeplete the minnute wave c to complete minor wave 2
#SabaliCapital
#TechnicalAnalysis
#USOIL
Oil at the crossroads - buy zone or bear trap?Technically , WTI is testing the lower boundary of a converging wedge, hovering around the identified buy zone. Holding above 62–63 is critical for bulls, as a breakdown would expose targets at 61.30 and 58.80. Conversely, a rebound from current levels could trigger a move toward 70.50 and even 77.60 if momentum builds. The daily stochastic hints at a potential reversal to the upside, suggesting that a short-term bounce may be in play.
Fundamentally , the outlook remains tense: weak demand from China and global economic uncertainty are weighing on prices, while OPEC+ continues to maintain control over supply. U.S. inventory swings, with alternating builds and exports, add to volatility. Overall, the setup looks neutral with elevated risk - macro data could easily tip the balance either way.
Tactically , the market is facing a binary scenario: sustained strength above 63 opens the way to 70.50 and 77.60, while failure here brings 58.80–55.60 into focus.
In short, oil is at a crossroads and the next decisive move depends on whether bulls can hold the line.
USOILIt has been seen that the price is continuously consolidating at the same range but below the resistance.
Does it mean that it is bearish?
The answer is yes the price is in the sellers's hand.
USOIL Trade Insights📢 NFX Trade Update – FX:USOIL USOIL (WTI-USD)
Strong rejection at the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance, with price dropping exactly as expected, confirming the liquidity grab setup. A textbook SMC play.
We anticipate further downside on Oil. Our trade is active, and for those who entered around $64.10 (per the last video analysis), you’re already sitting on +350 pips in profit.
Looking ahead, I expect price to drop below the EIA entry level and potentially test the $62/barrel zone before Friday’s market close.
WTI OIL Recent fractal calls for a buy towards $70.50.WTI Oil (USOIL) is on the 3rd straight green 1D candle following a Double Bottom bounce on the 61.50 Support. At the same time the 1D RSI formed Higher Lows, which is a Bullish Divergence.
The same set of conditions emerged on the May 05 bottom rebound, which resulted into initially a 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) test and then a Resistance 2 contact.
As a result, we expect this rise to continue, targeting $70.50.
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USOIL Trade Setup📢 NFX Trade Alert – Swing Setup
💹 Instrument: FX:USOIL Crude Oil (WTI-USD)
🛒 Trade Type: Swing – Sell at Market
📍 Entry: $63.50
⛔ Stop Loss: $64.00
✅ Target Profit: $60.50
Analysis:
Crude Oil turned bearish after failing to hold above the $64.00 resistance. The latest EIA Crude Oil Inventories report (Sep 10, 2025) showed a +3.939M build versus a forecasted -1.900M draw and a previous +2.415M, signaling weaker demand and oversupply pressures.
This aligns with the current technical setup: lower highs forming and supply pressure weighing on price action. A rejection around $63.50 opens room for continuation to the $60.50 support zone. Risk remains tight with a stop above $64.00, maintaining a favorable risk-to-reward profile.
Oil near $63 as Middle East tensions and tariff risks drive gainOil near $63 as Middle East tensions and tariff risks drive gains
WTI crude traded around $63 August 10, marking a third day of gains as Middle East tensions escalated after Israel struck Hamas leadership in Qatar. The move adds to years of regional operations and heightens supply concerns, supported by OPEC+’s smaller October output hike.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump urged the EU to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese and Indian goods to pressure Russia, with Washington ready to match. U.S. crude inventories rose 1.25M barrels, tempering the rally. Global stocks gained and the dollar steadied ahead of key U.S. inflation data, while gold held near record highs.
Market Analysis: WTI Crude Oil StrugglesMarket Analysis: WTI Crude Oil Struggles
Crude oil is showing bearish signs and might decline below $62.25.
Important Takeaways for WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today
- Crude oil price failed to clear the $65.60 region and started a fresh decline.
- There is a short-term bullish trend line forming with support at $62.25 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.
WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil, the price struggled to clear $65.60 against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh decline below $64.60.
The bears gained strength and pushed the price below $62.00. Finally, the price tested $61.20 and recently started a recovery wave. There was a move above $62.00, the 50-hour simple moving average, and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $65.63 swing high to the $61.23 low.
The bears are now active near $63.00. If there is a fresh increase, the price could face a barrier near $63.05. The first major resistance is near the 50% Fib retracement at $63.40. The next stop for the bulls could be near $64.60. Any more gains might send the price toward $65.60.
Conversely, the price might start another decline and test a short-term bullish trend line with support at $62.25 and the 50-hour simple moving average.
The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is $61.20. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $60.50. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward $60.00.
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WTI Crude Oil resistance at 6540The WTI Crude Oil is currently trading with a bearish bias, aligned with the broader downward trend. Recent price action shows a retest of the resistance, suggesting a further selling pressure within the downtrend.
Key resistance is located at 6540, a prior consolidation zone. This level will be critical in determining the next directional move.
A bearish rejection from 6540 could confirm the resumption of the downtrend, targeting the next support levels at 6200, followed by 6070 and 6000 over a longer timeframe.
Conversely, a decisive breakout and daily close above 6540 would invalidate the current bearish setup, shifting sentiment to bullish and potentially triggering a move towards 6650, then 6830.
Conclusion:
The short-term outlook remains bearish unless WTI Crude breaks and holds above 6540. Traders should watch for price action signals around this key level to confirm direction. A rejection favours fresh downside continuation, while a breakout signals a potential trend reversal or deeper correction.
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USOIL SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 63.28
Target Level: 61.46
Stop Loss: 64.49
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 3h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Range formationAs we analyzed yesterday and mentioned, the price was likely to form a range, and now this range has been activated. We need to wait and see whether the price breaks the range from the top or from the bottom. My personal opinion is that the probability of an upside breakout is higher due to the current conditions.
WTI LongLooking at WTI Crude Oil (1H), the broader market structure has been bearish, with price creating lower highs and lower lows after rejecting the supply zone near 65.50–65.00. A clear Break of Structure (BOS) occurred around 62.00, confirming bearish continuation. However, more recently, price attempted to shift with a Change of Character (CHoCH) at 62.95, suggesting buyers are trying to regain short-term control. This signals the possibility of a corrective move upward before any further downside.
The higher supply zone near 65.00 remains strong since price dropped sharply from it on the last test. A more local supply sits around 62.80–63.00, where sellers previously defended. On the demand side, the zone around 60.20–60.60 is more significant, as buyers stepped in with strength to fuel the latest rally. The minor demand at 61.50–61.70 could also provide temporary support, though its reaction may be weaker due to the heavier selling pressure that brought price down there previously.
Currently, price is consolidating around 62.10 after a failed push into the supply zone. If buyers defend the nearby demand around 61.50–61.70, a bounce toward 62.95 to retest the CHoCH level looks likely. If that zone gives way, the deeper demand near 60.20 would be the next logical target. The trade bias is cautiously bullish in the short term, expecting a potential corrective rally higher, with 61.40 as the invalidation level. A decisive break below this would restore full bearish control.
Momentum is shifting slightly in favor of buyers, shown by stronger bullish candles off the lows, but sellers remain present at local supply. No strong bullish reversal pattern has yet formed, so price may still retest demand before pushing higher.
Complicated situation in the Middle EastThe downtrend in oil is quite clear to everyone, and naturally, oil prices are heavily dependent on war and insecurity news in the region. If the Middle East were in a normal state, oil prices should have been much lower. However, despite the ongoing downtrend, I don’t think it will drop below \$61. We might see a range forming, and there’s also a chance that a single piece of news could reverse the trend.
