BULLISH MOVEPrice is on retracement move to a supply zone. Lets expect a small bullish movement to the supply zone. But if not ready to risk lets wait for the price to reach supply zone and sell.
Trade ideas
USOIL Will Move Higher! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for USOIL.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 59.819.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 60.500 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Potential bearish drop?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) has rejected off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a swing high resistance.
Pivot: 62.22
1st Support: 54.92
1st Resistance: 65.94
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.
USOIL: Consolidation First, Breakout Next After crude oil plummeted last week to a low near 58.1, it rebounded on Friday and closed around 59.5, basically confirming a consolidating trend.
For this week, crude oil is expected to first trade in a low-range consolidation before assessing the potential for a unilateral move. Focus on the 58 level as support below and 62 as resistance above; trade within this range using a "buy low and sell high" strategy.
Go long around the 58.2 level.
Go short around the 61.8 level.
If the price breaks out of this range, then look for a unilateral trend to follow.
Core trading logic:The current crude oil market is in a balanced state of "relatively abundant supply + weak demand + macroeconomic uncertainty + technical fluctuations", with no clear trend direction. Therefore, a mixed strategy of "interval high selling and low buying + breakthrough confirmation for follow-up" is adopted. The focus is on the core range of $58 - $61. Buy at the support level and sell at the resistance level. At the same time, a follow-up position after a trend breakthrough is reserved to balance stability and flexibility.
Crude oil trading strategy
buy：60-60.5
tp:61-61.5
sl:59.5
OIl in to start wave e of traingle B (Long - Short/Medium Term)- The clearest count right now is that we are in the start of wave E around 65- 70 of traiangle B.
- To follow a deeper correcton for wave C to around $30 a Barrel
US-Oil will further push Down-sideHello Traders
In This Chart xtiusd HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today XTIUSD analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (XTIUSD market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on XTIUSD Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Weekly Watchlist – Oil AnalysisThese days, oil prices have dropped due to the relatively calm situation in the Middle East. However, over the past couple of days, disruptions in tanker traffic suggest that oil could open **higher this week**.
Therefore, a breakout above the channel — after proper confirmation — could present a **long position opportunity**. It’s essential to wait for confirmation to ensure the price doesn’t fake out and return back into the channel.
wti 4h🔹 Overall Outlook and Potential Price Movements
In the charts above, we have outlined the overall outlook and possible price movement paths.
As shown, each analysis highlights a key support or resistance zone near the current market price. The market’s reaction to these zones — whether a breakout or rejection — will likely determine the next direction of the price toward the specified levels.
⚠️ Important Note:
The purpose of these trading perspectives is to identify key upcoming price levels and assess potential market reactions. The provided analyses are not trading signals in any way.
✅ Recommendation for Use:
To make effective use of these analyses, it is advised to manually draw the marked zones on your chart. Then, on the 15-minute time frame, monitor the candlestick behavior and look for valid entry triggers before making any trading decisions.
How did crude oil take over and start rising?Rebalancing of Fed policy expectations, weakening of dollar suppression
The core inflation data in the US shows a downward trend. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December remains above 60%, and overly hawkish expectations have been partially corrected. The US dollar index is experiencing pressure near the 100 mark, and the momentum of its previous strength has weakened, reducing its suppression effect on crude oil. Historical data indicates that the negative correlation between the US dollar index and crude oil prices is more significant in volatile markets. If the US dollar declines next week, it will provide liquidity support for the rebound of oil prices.
Next week, we will share the trading strategies for crude oil.
buy：59.50-59.70
tp:60.50-60.70
sl:59.95
WTI Crude The Week Ahead Key Trading LevelsKey Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6150
Resistance Level 2: 6210
Resistance Level 3: 6300
Support Level 1: 5936
Support Level 2: 5845
Support Level 3: 5777
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
WTI OIL 1:2 RRThis is a trade idea, posting for future reference
not to be taken as financial advice
Tade closes at 9 am pst, by stop or tp hit as i will not monitor this trade.
Oil Under Pressure!Crude oil futures rose more than 1% toward $60 per barrel on Friday, heading for an end to a two-week losing streak, supported by supply risks linked to geopolitical tensions. The impact of U.S. sanctions also began to appear early, as major Russian companies announced reductions in their oil-trading activities. Analysts warned that a large portion of Russia’s seaborne oil exports may face disruptions due to rerouted shipments and slow unloading, while purchases from some Asian countries have declined.
Meanwhile, bearish pressure persisted as the International Energy Agency projected a growing supply glut, with global output expected to exceed demand by around 2.4 million barrels per day this year and 4 million next year. OPEC data also indicated a surplus in the third quarter, alongside rising U.S. production and increasing inventories.
On the technical front, crude oil prices continue to trade in a overall downtrend, forming lower lows and maintaining a negative structure, with the next target located at $58.93. The downtrend would shift to an uptrend if the price rises above $61.403 and forms a higher high on the 4-hour timeframe.
Oil analysis updateYou go to sleep at night, wake up in the morning, and suddenly see a two-meter candle.
On the 15-minute timeframe, you can trade within this range, and on higher timeframes, stay alert.
It’s a sudden move, so don’t miss the upward push in oil — set an alert or a buy stop.
USOIL (WTI Crude Oil) Long Trade ENtryAnalysis:
Price recently formed a strong bullish reaction after an extended down-move. The market pulled back to retest intraday support around 58.60 and is showing signs of stabilization. A bounce from this level could trigger a continuation move toward the 61.20–61.30 resistance area.
Setup Type: Long Position
Entry: Around 58.60 (support retest)
Stop Loss: 57.94
Target: 61.28
Bias: Bullish above 58.60
Invalidation: Break and close below 57.94
#USOIL #WTICrude #CrudeOil #OilMarket #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #LongSetup #CommodityTrading #MarketAnalysis
The bearish trend of crude oil has been establishedDownward revision of global crude oil demand growth expectations, weak terminal consumption
Both OPEC and IEA have lowered their 2025 demand growth expectations. IEA predicts that the annual demand will only increase by 700,000 barrels per day, the slowest growth rate since 2009. The average weekly supply of US crude oil products has decreased by 0.91% year-on-year, European diesel consumption remains sluggish, and the replenishment demand of core Asian consuming countries shows "short cycle, low intensity" characteristics, making it difficult to form a sustained support. Currently, the demand side of crude oil lacks clear growth momentum, and the mismatch between supply and demand has further intensified.
The effect of renewable energy substitution continues, squeezing the space for crude oil demand
Global wind power and photovoltaic installations continue to expand. European wind power output has returned to normal levels, and Asian photovoltaic new installations maintain high growth rates. The electricity supply gap has narrowed, leading to a reduction in crude oil replenishment demand. At the same time, the share of biofuels in the transportation sector has steadily increased, even with short-term cost fluctuations, the long-term substitution trend has not changed, further limiting the growth potential of crude oil demand.
Crude oil trading strategy
sell：58.45-58.55
tp:58.25-58.35
sl:58.15
USOIL - Bullish ReversalUSOIL has formed a double bottom with divergence and currently trading near its neckline. Buy stop entry on break of neckline.
Bearish USOIL: 58 at RiskUSOIL extended the previous session's decline today, showing an overall weak fluctuating downward trend. The core bearish factor of oversupply continues to weigh, with a lack of short-term rebound momentum.
On the indicator front, the 9-day EMA has crossed below the 20-day EMA, forming a short-term death cross signal, indicating that the downward trend is likely to continue. The 14-day RSI hovers around 40, remaining in a downward channel with no oversold rebound signals, suggesting that bears still hold the initiative and there is no large-scale entry of bottom-fishing funds.
In terms of resistance and support, short-term rebound resistance is concentrated at the pivot point of 59.28 and the 59.50-60 range. As a key integer level, failure to reclaim 60 will see bearish sentiment continue to spread. For support below, focus first on 55.7; if the 58 level is broken, a accelerated drop to this support level is highly likely.
Trading Strategy:
Buy 58 - 58.3
SL 58
TP 59 - 59.5 - 60
Sell 59.5 - 60
SL 60.5
TP 58.5 - 58 - 57.5
Potential bearish drop?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) could rise towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support which acts as a swing low support.
Pivot: 60.07
1st Support: 56.77
1st Resistance: 61.63
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.
HTF - Crude Oil AnalysisOn the HTF, we can see Crude oil has overall been bearish since 2022 because :
- Geopolitical tensions priced in and faded out.
- Decreased oil consumption of oil. Demand reduced
- Oversupply concerns - OPEC maintained higher levels of oil product. Too much supply & less supply hence lower oil Prices.
· Historically, The markets keep an equilibrium on the price of oil which healthy prices being around $40 - $80 per barrel. This is where oil spends most of its time.
They wouldn’t let oil price drop too low since it would cost producers too much & if its too high, then the consumers will suffer so price always remain a balance.
Future Analysis/forecasts:
· Now we are seeing that Major central banks around the world adopting loose monetary policies and cutting interest rates following suits with the Federal Reserve.
-This would result in more economic activity, more manufacturers using oil etc therefor the demand for Oil will pick up again and we can see price start to rise.
The Contango Conundrum: Why Crude’s Price Power WanesThe global crude oil market is signaling sustained weakness. A clear sign is the Contango in the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures curve for most of 2026. This structure prices future oil deliveries higher than immediate ones, strongly indicating a global supply glut. Major forecasting bodies like the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) now confirm a record surplus looms in 2026, reversing previous tight market expectations. Understanding this decline requires a multidisciplinary lens, examining supply resilience against sluggish demand across several domains.
Geostrategy and Geopolitics: Production Over Protocol
Geopolitical decisions, paradoxically, contribute to oversupply. OPEC+ members are gradually unwinding previous voluntary production cuts, adding millions of barrels back to the market. This production boost, formalized in their latest agreements, increases supply visibility and dampens price spikes. Simultaneously, sustained geopolitical tensions between major powers often lead key consumers like China to ramp up Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) , effectively soaking up immediate surplus but reducing future demand visibility. This policy-driven stockpiling mitigates immediate price falls, but structural oversupply persists.
Macroeconomics and Economics: Slowdown Meets Resilience
A deceleration in global oil demand growth meets unexpectedly resilient supply . Macroeconomic headwinds, including trade tensions and a sluggish global economic outlook, suppress consumption growth below historical trends. This tepid demand environment is exacerbated by expanding production from non-OPEC+ nations. Crucially, the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana lead this non-OPEC+ supply expansion, challenging the cartel’s market dominance. The resulting imbalance, production exceeding demand, creates the chronic oversupply driving WTI into contango.
Technology and High-Tech: Efficiency Enhances Supply
Advancements in extraction technology dramatically boosted supply, particularly within the US shale sector. Continuous innovations in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing sustain high US output, even as prices soften. Furthermore, the rapid expansion of Electric Vehicle (EV) sales and increasing vehicle fuel efficiencies represent a major technological headwind for transportation fuel demand. This shift, supported by global patent activity in battery and wave energy technology, structurally limits long-term oil consumption growth.
Patent and Science Analysis: The Energy Transition
Patent activity confirms the directional shift away from fossil fuels. While patents related to downhole completion systems and drilling fluid prediction remain, increased patenting in Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) [/b and Green Hydrogen signals the industry's necessary pivot. The science of energy transition, focusing on low-carbon solutions, suggests a future where oil remains a critical input but faces mounting competition from technological substitutes. This long-term displacement risk pressures oil prices, even if demand remains firm in the short run.
Cyber and Strategic Risk: Supply Chain Security
The increasing reliance on complex digital infrastructure across the oil value chain introduces cyber risk . Successful attacks on pipeline operators or refineries can cause temporary supply disruptions and price spikes. However, the market currently views such disruptions as temporary events rather than long-term structural issues affecting the overall supply-demand balance. The oversupply acts as a buffer, with floating storage and ample inventory mitigating the impact of short-term, localized outages.
Investment Outlook: Watching Spreads
The market signals clearly indicate supply strength and demand vulnerability. The widening WTI contango structure provides a clear arbitrage opportunity for traders willing to finance storage. Investors should closely monitor the Brent-Dubai Exchange of Futures for Swaps (EFS), which is turning negative, underscoring specific weakening in the Atlantic Basin. Barring a sharp, coordinated OPEC+ cut or an unexpected large-scale geopolitical conflict, pricing pressure should persist into 2026. Traders must prioritize futures spread analysis over simple outright price forecasting.
Bearish bar signals risk of deeper crude slideUnable to climb above the 50-day moving average and having just delivered an almighty bearish bar, is WTI crude about to revisit the October lows—an outcome that could put a retest of the YTD lows on the cards? With momentum indicators like RSI (14) and MACD swinging sharply lower, signaling building downside strength, the risk of such a move is growing.
$58.00 is a minor level to watch near term, having acted as support and resistance at times last month. Should price trade beneath this level, shorts could be established on the break with a stop above for protection, targeting a run toward the October swing low of $56.00. The preference would be to see a back-test and rejection of the level before entry.
While short setups are favored given recent price and momentum signals, should WTI manage to hold above $58.00 during Thursday’s session, the option would be there to flip the setup, allowing for longs with a stop beneath for protection. $60.00 screens as an appropriate initial target, even with the messy price action around it recently.
Plenty of fundamental catalysts were bandied around to explain Wednesday’s abrupt drop, most linked to an EIA report warning of market oversupply. It undoubtedly contributed to the bearish move, but the seeds were sown well before the event given how poorly WTI traded at the 50DMA in recent weeks.
Good luck!
DS
