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Trendline Break To The Downside In SPX/USDHey Traders and followers! Hope your summer has been going great along with your profits $ Take your money off the table in SPX if you are long and jump into a short as we have a trendline break to the downside on the 12hr chart. Price has broke through the sell zone area of 6436.6 painting a bearish picture for SPX way down to 5980.6 area. If price breaks back up above 6436.6 area then the bearish break trade will be off the table. Best of luck in all your trades $$$
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Trade-Farmer
1
S&P 500 Eyes Breakout as Powell Signals Rate CutThe S&P 500 is once again approaching record territory, with momentum accelerating after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a potential rate cut at Jackson Hole. Markets welcomed the dovish shift, boosting risk appetite and driving stocks higher. Beyond Powell’s comments, several other factors are fueling the rally. Softer inflation readings have reinforced the case for easier policy, while labor market data shows a cooling trend without triggering recession fears. This “goldilocks” scenario continues to support equities. Strong corporate earnings have also underpinned the move, particularly from the tech and consumer sectors, where margins remain resilient despite macro uncertainty. Capital inflows into equity ETFs highlight renewed investor confidence, while declining bond yields are making stocks relatively more attractive. On the technical side, the S&P 500 is pushing toward the 6,500 level, its all-time high. A clean break above this barrier would confirm fresh upside momentum, potentially triggering further buying from trend-following funds. While risks remain from geopolitics and trade tensions, the current mix of easing Fed expectations, solid earnings, and supportive technicals suggests the index could extend higher. A breakout above 6,500 may set the stage for another leg in the bull market.
SP:SPXLong
by fwalbaum
3
Jackson Hole Insights: US500 in the SpotlightUS500 is up from the previous session. Despite recent volatility, the index is up more than 0.30% over the past month and more than 13% yoy. The index hit an all-time high above 6,400 earlier in August but has since seen some pullback, reflecting a “market wobble” as traders anticipate signals from Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Fundamental Analysis Short-term price action has been mixed. Tech and chip stocks have weighed on performance, while a rotation into defensive and healthcare sectors has helped cushion declines. Recent earnings misses by major retailers, including Walmart have stoked concerns about consumer resilience amidst ongoing higher tariffs and uneven spending patterns. Despite near term caution, the index remains resilient with buyers coming in at lower levels and support levels seen around 6,300 and 6,150. Pullbacks are viewed as likely to be short lived unless new external shocks arise. Technical Analysis If the index breaks above resistance near 6,406, a push toward 6,500 and 6,650 is possible. Bearish Risk: A breakdown below the 6,300 - 6,150 region could trigger a pullback toward 6,075 or lower, but this remains a scenario barring a major negative shock. Overall US 500 remains resilient despite intermittent corrections and sector rotations. The outlook is broadly positive, especially if Fed signals from Jackson Hole remain supportive and corporate earnings stay resilient Analysis by Terence Hove, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
SP:SPXLong
by WiseLeoTrading
SPX500 Market Outlook | Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech in FocusSPX500 – Overview U.S. Sectors in Spotlight Ahead of Fed’s Jackson Hole Gathering Wall Street is awaiting confirmation of a potential September interest rate cut when Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday — a potentially pivotal event for markets, particularly for rate-sensitive sectors. This year’s gathering comes after a week of mixed inflation data, as consumer and wholesale price reports gave conflicting signals on how well the U.S. economy is handling President Trump’s import tariffs, complicating the Fed’s policy outlook. After cutting rates by 50 bps in September 2024 and 25 bps in both November and December, the Fed has since held steady. Rising expectations of another cut next month have buoyed homebuilders, banks, and retailers, though a hawkish surprise from Powell could weigh on these sectors. 🔎 Technical Outlook Bearish Scenario: As long as price trades below 6389, downside pressure remains, targeting 6366 and, if broken, extending toward 6321. Bullish Scenario: A confirmed 1H/4H close above 6389 would open the way toward 6406 – 6425, with a stronger push possible toward 6468. 📍 Key Levels Pivot: 6389 Support: 6366 – 6341 – 6321 Resistance: 6406 – 6425 – 6468 ⚠️ Expect heightened volatility during Powell’s Jackson Hole speech — risk management is essential.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
SPX500 H4 | Bearish dropS&P500 has rejected off the sell entry at 6,407.74, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to the downside. Stop is at 6,491.06, which is a swing high resistance. Take profit is at 6,302.91, which is a pullback support that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:SPX500Short
by Tradu
SPX: Bad news if support breaksSPX is coming up on the support area around 6300. Next week will be the do or die test. If support trendline breaks, then probability of Minor degree B wave goes up by a lot. Right now, the bullish scenario is on the red path. If, SPX gets support on the trendline and bounces to make another ATH along with Daily and Weekly RSI making another lower high, then that would be the local top. More bearish scenario is if the support breaks right now. That will put SPX on the green path; breakdown, retest trendline and then crash. In that case, should expect correction to last till the end of September; maybe till mid October, and then the Halloween rally to finish up the year. Should expect market to get down to 0.618 to 0.5 fib level before the down turn is over. Do not want to see the market get below 5k. For now, the trendline is where the next move will most likely be decided. I do not think the generational crash is here just yet. There are still a lot of investors on the side lines. Crypto market still hasn't seen the blow off top. Underlying economy is still holding steady, even though some cracks are appearing. Depending on how the correction unfolds, either a 3 or a 5 waves move, we will find out the magnitude and the degree.
SP:SPXShort
by mukit1
End of 2025: 3 Fed scenarios and their impact on the marketThe FED has not cut the federal funds rate since the end of 2024. Let's take a look at the 3 possible scenarios for the Fed funds rate between now and the end of the year, and the impact on the stock market for equities, bonds, the US dollar and Bitcoin. The table below summarizes the 3 possible scenarios and their possible impact on the stock market. 1) No FED pivot for the whole of 2025 (the most bearish case for risky assets on the stock market) In this case, the FED would keep rates unchanged for the whole of 2025 in order to continue the fight against inflation. The market would find itself trapped by its expectations, as it anticipates an easing by the end of the year. On the stock market, this would trigger a major correction in the S&P 500, currently valued at levels close to its 2021 highs. Two-year interest rates would rebound, as would long-term bond yields, leading to increased pressure on US government debt and lower bond prices. The US dollar is expected to rebound strongly, driven by a technical bullish pattern, reinforcing its attractiveness on the foreign exchange market. Finally, in the crypto-currencies, a sustained bear market would set in, with an estimated average duration of thirteen months (the famous bear market of BTC's 4-year cycle), marking a major reversal for Bitcoin and altcoins. 2) A “technical” pivot by the FED (1 isolated rate cut) This intermediate scenario would correspond to a cut in key rates as early as September or October 2025, following the arrival of Stephen Miran on the FOMC. However, this cut would remain isolated and would not mark the start of a prolonged rate-cutting cycle, as inflation would still be too high. On the equity markets, this would translate into a consolidation phase: the S&P 500 would move in a corridor between 5800 points and its recent record highs. Two-year yields would stabilize at around 4%, hovering around their 200-day moving average, with a slight rise in bond prices, especially in the event of a weak job market. The US dollar would also stabilize, with a moderate appreciation on the foreign exchange market. As for crypto-currencies, the impact would be neutral to slightly bullish, with the possibility of a final peak before the next bear market settles in, linked to the four-year cycle seen on Bitcoin. 3) A “real” FED pivot (several rate cuts between now and the end of December 2025) In the case of a real monetary pivot, the FED would cut its key rate in September, followed by two further cuts before the end of the year. This scenario would have a markedly positive impact on equity markets, with the S&P 500 possibly reaching the 6700-point target. On the rates side, this would lead to a marked downtrend, with new lows for short- and long-term yields, while bond prices would start to rise sharply again. The US dollar would enter a prolonged downtrend, with a target of 95 points for the DXY index. Last but not least, crypto-currencies are set to benefit from this accommodating climate: Bitcoin and altcoins are likely to see their prices rise, marking the end of a bullish cycle at the end of the year. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. 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SP:SPX
by Swissquote
SPX500 & NAS100 BULLISH and GOLD NEUTRALIn this week's analysis of the major indices and Gold, there is a lot of indicator divergences on the charts. However, while momentum is declined and the divergences are not confirmed yet, suggesting that the train has not come to a complete stop in my opinion. Yes!, we could be nearing the Tops but I could not confirm that on the chart. Secondly, price action just broke into a new high from a defended support zone and that suggest that Bulls are in control of the market currently for both SPX500 and NAS100. GOLD is still in a neutral zone consolidating sideways and I think based on the chart analysis, it continues to go sideways after a push down to about 3320 and then a rise to about 3419 Target. I hope you find the analysis informative and I thank you for visiting my video publication. Cheers and have a great trading week.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by RICHINVESTOR
Precision vs. Accuracy in Trading🎯 Precision vs. Accuracy in Trading Most traders obsess about being right. They chase accuracy, trying to predict every move. But here’s the truth: Accuracy = being directionally correct. Your system captures real market tendencies, even if it’s only right 40–50% of the time. Precision = consistent execution. You take trades exactly as your rules demand—same position sizing, same stops, same discipline—regardless of outcome. 💡 Without precision, accuracy doesn’t matter. A system with edge can’t pay you if you trade it inconsistently. 👉 The pro’s mindset: Accuracy is revealed over hundreds of trades. Precision is applied on every single trade. Better to be precise with a simple system than sloppy with a brilliant one. Takeaway: Accuracy gives you edge. Precision allows you to realise it.
SP:SPXEducation
by C_Tate
The ascending triangle of the SPX JUST adjusted today ...making the tip of the triangle widen a little, therefore putting the tip of the triangle farther out. The tip of the triangle is now at around Sept. 2, 2025. Technically, the equity or whatever you are trading can exit out of the triangle anytime from 2/3 to 3/4 of the triangle length. Since the half and hour and the one hour indicators are indicating a bullish move, I do not think the market will continue lower tomorrow. Historically, the markets have gone down in October. I suspect that the SPY is going to keep going up, then retrace briefly until we reach a point where the market decides to go down significantly. Could that be October ... maybe?!? I don't know. I do not have a crystal ball. But, I drew a trend line from the big drop from Feb to April upward. (see the dotted black line) Coincidentally, this trend line crosses the 1.618 fibinocci threshold in the beginning of October. (indicated by a gold star) This is just the same information I have posted in my previous charts. I am a technical trader but I believe the fundamentals drive the market. I am using the Heikin Ashi candlesticks. 1) They show more of a directional movement within candlesticks. 2) They tend to filter out the market noise so you can see the market direction better. 3) It reduces false signals, allowing you to stay in the trade longer. 4) And, it also gives you a smoother appearance making it easier to see trends and reversals. But I often switch between regular candlesticks as those are the candlesticks I started trading with and I still do get a little bit of information from the regular candlesticks. I personally find: * the 5 minute indicators typically represents what will happen in the next half and hour. * the 10 minute indicators typically represents what will happen in the next hour. * the 30 minute indicators typically represents what will happen in the daily. * and, the hour indicators typically represents what will happen in the next week. Typically, I would wait until there are 2 green Heikin Ashi green candlesticks before entering. I still tend to switch back and forth between Heikin Ashi candlesticks and regular candlesticks since regular candlesticks are what I am familiar with and have been using since I started trading. I use the MacD, the Stock RSI and the DMI to assist me with the direction of the market. I am not perfect at them. I will hopefully try to explain these in future trading charts. My trading plan only entails me to use 10% of my total account. If I am wrong on this trade, I will not implode my account. Trade at your own risk, make sure you have stops in place, use a trading plan and only use 10% or less of your account for trading to limit your risk. Any comments and questions are welcome.... conversation and dialog allows us to learn more. I am trying to expand outside of the SPY and DIA, so hopefully, I will tackle some other symbols. Happy Trading everyone!
SP:SPXLong
by Princessgirl
SP500 Secondary trend. Part of the channel. Reversal zone. 2025 Logarithm. Time frame 1 month (less is not necessary). The SP500 index primarily reflects the "health" of the American stock market and the economy as a whole. This is reflected in all markets by the domino effect. Now, after a huge takeout and recovery, the price is at the maximums of the local trend that has formed, and this is also the maximum of the index as a whole for its entire 100-year existence (before displaying on the chart). 🔄 Locally, the price has run into the resistance of the median of the ascending channel (green dotted line). Now the resistance level of this zone will be formed. 🟢 A breakout of this zone upwards - an exit above the median, promises strong growth and pumping of the stock market as a whole. 🔴 And the reverse process is not a breakthrough and not a consolidation above this zone - consolidation in the range under resistance and above the dynamic support of the internal channel. An extremely negative case is a decline in the lower zone of the channel. 🧠 The chart as a whole shows the channel range itself. Including on both sides, price slippage zones (low probability), as well as key support / resistance levels of this secondary trend that exist, and those that will be formed in the future, but will be key for the development of the trend. This can be an addition to the analysis and formation of tactics and money management in other markets, including cryptocurrency.
VANTAGE:SP500
by SpartaBTC
Are Longterm Interest Rates Telling Us Something?I rarely cite financial news in my market updates. My reasoning is simple: all perspectives, bullish or bearish, are ultimately reflected in price action. That price action forms patterns, and those patterns can be analyzed to produce reasonable forecasts. After years of applying Elliott Wave theory, this approach has consistently stood the test of time. That said, I’ll break from tradition today, as I believe the following excerpt is particularly relevant to my latest Trading View update. It comes from Barbara Kollmeyer’s article, “There’s a slow-motion crisis in bonds — and this bearish strategist thinks it will hit stocks.” For context, I regularly track multiple market indices, futures contracts, single stocks, and notably, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond. For the past year, I’ve highlighted the counterintuitive rise in long-term yields that ironically began when the Fed started cutting its benchmark rate in September 2024. While brief divergences between long-term yields and Fed policy aren’t unusual, this persistent uptrend is different. The yield has been carving out a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows, appearing now on the verge of a breakout—not just toward incremental new highs, but potentially into a runaway scenario for long-term rates. This is why Albert Edwards’ recent comments caught my attention: “There is a slow-motion crisis unfolding in the government bond markets that equity investors continue to ignore at their peril. The upward grind for long bond yields has been relentless, yet investors keep ignoring that to focus instead on more bullish metrics such as the latest reporting season driven by the mega-cap IT stocks, that promises a pot of gold at the end of the AI rainbow.” His perspective resonated with me. Having lived through the dot-com boom and bust, I recall how new technologies can fuel outsized market optimism. AI undoubtedly carries transformational potential, much like the Internet. But just as it took nearly two decades for the Internet to fully translate from speculative boom to tangible economic value, AI’s payoff will likely follow a similarly extended trajectory. It’s not an immediate catalyst. What I am certain of is this: the cost of long-term money is rising, with implications far beyond bond charts. Higher yields directly affect mortgage rates and other long-term financing costs. More importantly, sustained upward pressure in long-term rates has the potential to weigh heavily on equities, broader markets, and asset valuations for far longer than many currently expect.
SP:SPX
by maikisch
5
S&P dip buying opportunity supported at 6340US equities staged a sharp intraday rebound, with the S&P 500 recovering from losses of over -1% to close down just -0.24%. Tech remained under pressure (NASDAQ -0.67%, Mag-7 -1.11%), weighed by reports questioning the near-term profitability of AI adoption, though DB research stressed that productivity gains are still likely longer term. Gains in energy (+0.86%) and other cyclical sectors helped offset the tech weakness as Brent crude rose +1.6% to $66.84/bbl. Geopolitical headlines around Ukraine and potential security arrangements kept risk sentiment cautious. Conclusion: Despite renewed tech volatility, the S&P’s resilience and sectoral rotation suggest dip-buying interest remains intact, but with near-term upside likely capped until tech stabilises. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 6433 Resistance Level 2: 6466 Resistance Level 3: 6500 Support Level 1: 6340 Support Level 2: 6310 Support Level 3: 6280 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
SPX500 Market Outlook | Fed Meeting & Retail Earnings in FocusSPX500 Overview Wall Street subdued as retail earnings and Fed meeting remain in focus U.S. stock index futures edged lower on Wednesday, extending a tech-led pullback on Wall Street. Investors are closely monitoring earnings from major retailers such as Target and Lowe’s, seen as key indicators of consumer health, while awaiting the upcoming Federal Reserve symposium later this week. Concerns over tariffs and their potential impact on consumer prices have weighed on sentiment, adding to the cautious market tone. 🔎 Technical Outlook The SPX500 remains under bearish pressure after stabilizing below the pivot line at 6425. Bearish Scenario: As long as price trades below 6425, the trend favors the downside, targeting 6389 and 6366. A confirmed break of 6366 could accelerate the decline toward 6321. Bullish Scenario: A sustained 4H candle close above 6425 would shift momentum back to the upside, with resistance at 6439, followed by 6468 and 6485. Support: 6389, 6366, 6341, 6321 Resistance: 6439, 6468, 6485
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
1