SPX - Is it topping or setting up a for another run up?I hang up my trader title this week as I have been whooped by poor decision making in a choppy market. But here are my scenarios I will watch as we go. I can't help to think we are topping, but also see we are still in a strong bull market; it just has been harder to swing trade the daily.
Scenarios I’m Watching
Upside Continuation:
Buyers hold above the shaded zone (6,440–6,481) and press higher along the uptrend. A clean push above 6,532 would open the door to new highs, with the trend remaining intact as long as higher lows continue.
Sideways Chop:
Price keeps oscillating above and below the 6,440–6,481 range. This would extend consolidation and could frustrate swing traders, but it would also allow moving averages to tighten then smooth out and set the stage for another leg higher.
Deeper Pullback:
If the shaded zone and uptrend line break, the next levels to watch are the 20 EMA (~6,430) and the 50 SMA (~6,355). A dip into this area could still be a normal pullback within an uptrend, especially if buyers step in quickly as they’ve done in recent weeks.
Bearish Roll-Over:
If neither the 20 EMA nor the 50 SMA hold, a breakdown toward ~6,200 is possible. While not a technical correction percentage-wise, it would feel significant for anyone who entered near recent highs.
