German / DEU40 / GER 40 - Heading SouthThe DAX (GER40) is hovering just around 24500 – not far from recent highs – but momentum is fading and Friday’s typical “profit-taking weakness” is already setting in.
From a technical perspective, the index is stuck near VWAP with flat RSI and decreasing volume. Price has failed to convincingly break higher this week and is starting to roll over. Buyers look tired, and Friday is not usually their strongest day.
Fundamentally, things aren’t looking too solid either:
- European data continues to underwhelm.
- Global risk sentiment is shaky as everyone waits for potential fallout from the Trump–Putin meeting today.
- Inflation ghosts are creeping back in, and central banks remain as noncommittal as ever.
Conclusion for me:
I’m leaning short into into the day. If we start slipping below 24,400 with volume, I expect some acceleration.
T1: 24,410
T2: 24,300
T3: 24,100
The one unpredictable variable? Again - The world's leaders. Their random decisions can obliterate any setup in seconds. Markets follow structure... until a politician wakes up and chooses violence. Today is a special day with the upcoming Meeting - Be careful. On the other hand, - one negative news regarding this upcoming event can nuke all the high expectations that are already priced in, which, in my opinion, strenghtens this trade!
No trading advice – just how I see it.
