Japan 225 Index (Nikkei 225) Forecast for This WeekThe Japan 225 index, commonly known as the Nikkei 225, is positioned for continued volatility this week amid a complex interplay of domestic and international factors. The index closed at 42,807.82 on Monday, August 26, gaining 0.4% and extending its winning streak for a second consecutive day.
Key Technical Analysis and Short-Term Outlook
Technical indicators suggest a mixed but cautiously bullish outlook for the week. The index recently recovered from a 4% decline that brought it down to an intraday low of 42,330 on Friday, August 22. Several technical elements point to a potential bullish reversal:
Based on Elliott Wave analysis, the current short-term bullish impulsive sequence from the August 1 low of 39,749 suggests potential for continued upward movement. Key resistance levels to watch are 43,560 and 44,050/44,110, while support is found at 41,975.
Daily forecasts for this week show:
• Tuesday, August 26: Target 42,984, with a maximum of 45,993 and minimum of 39,975
• Wednesday, August 27: Target 43,007, ranging between 46,017 and 39,997
• Thursday, August 28: Target 42,727, with a range of 45,718 to 39,736
• Friday, August 29: Target 42,082, between 45,028 and 39,136
Major Market Drivers This Week
Federal Reserve Policy Impact
The most significant catalyst for Japanese markets this week stems from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole speech, which opened the door to a September rate cut. This has created a favorable environment for risk assets globally, with increased prospects for US monetary easing acting as a tailwind for Japanese tech stocks.
The speech led to a surge in the yen, which rose 1% against the dollar as investors anticipate the rate gap between Japan and the US will narrow. While this currency strength may pressure export-oriented companies, it reflects expectations of continued monetary policy divergence.
Bank of Japan Policy Outlook
The Bank of Japan’s next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for September 18-19, 2025. Recent inflation data shows Japan’s core CPI remained at 3.1% in July, above the BOJ’s 2% target, reinforcing expectations for potential rate hikes.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, speaking at Jackson Hole, highlighted that wage growth is spreading from large enterprises to smaller companies, with the tight labor market expected to continue exerting upward pressure on wages. This supports growing market speculation of another interest rate hike, possibly as early as October.
Key Economic Data Releases
Several important economic indicators are scheduled for release this week:
Thursday, August 29:
• Unemployment Rate (forecast: 2.5%)
• Tokyo Core CPI YoY (previous: 2.9%, forecast: 2.7%)
• Industrial Production MoM (forecast: -0.5%)
• Retail Sales YoY (forecast: 2.2%)
These data points will be crucial for assessing the health of Japan’s economy and the BOJ’s policy trajectory.
Sector-Specific Outlook
Technology Sector
Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday will be particularly important for Japanese semiconductor and tech stocks. The company’s results often serve as a bellwether for the global tech sector, and Japanese chip-related stocks like SoftBank Group and Advantest have already shown strength in anticipation.
Automotive Sector
Japanese automakers continue to face headwinds from US tariffs, despite the recent trade agreement that reduced duties from 25% to 15%. The automotive sector remains under pressure, with exports to the US showing significant declines and companies absorbing tariff costs through price reductions.
Banking Sector
Financial stocks have been recent outperformers, benefiting from rising JGB yields as markets price in potential BOJ rate hikes. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield has risen to around 1.61%, hovering near its highest levels since 2008.
Risk Factors and Challenges
Several factors could weigh on market performance this week:
1. Currency strength: The yen’s appreciation may hurt export competitiveness
2. Global growth concerns: Slowing global demand could impact Japan’s export-dependent economy
3. Trade tensions: Despite the US-Japan trade deal, automotive tariffs remain elevated compared to historical levels
4. Technical resistance: The index faces significant resistance levels around 43,560
Weekly Forecast Summary
The Nikkei 225 is expected to trade within a volatile range this week, with potential for modest gains if technical resistance levels are cleared. The index benefits from:
• Fed dovish pivot supporting risk sentiment
• Strong corporate earnings and governance improvements
• Continued monetary policy normalization by the BOJ
However, traders should remain cautious given the mixed technical signals, currency headwinds, and upcoming key economic data releases. The index’s ability to maintain levels above 42,000 will be crucial for sustaining the current upward momentum.
Target range for the week: 42,000 - 44,000, with key resistance at 43,560 and support at 41,975.
JAPAN225CFD trade ideas
NI225: Next Move Is Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse NI225 together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 42,633.24 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 42,940.13 .Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Rally Japanese style: #NIKKEI breaks recordsOn August 18, 2025, #NIKKEI hit a new all-time high (43,929). The main driver of growth was the weakening of the yen , which instantly improved export expectations and pushed up automakers: Toyota and Honda were among the leaders. plus positive corporate outlooks and an influx of foreign money amid global expectations of interest rate cuts. Banks and some chip stocks pulled in the opposite direction that day, but the weight of the auto sector and consumer leaders was enough to make the session a “record-breaking” one.
#NIKKEI on the rise: 5 keys to growth in 2025:
1. Yen exchange rate ↔ exports . A weak/volatile yen supports the margins and multipliers of exporters (automotive, industrial electronics), so any periods of currency weakness remain a catalyst for the index.
2. Soft global “rate” background . The market is pricing in a high probability of an Fed rate cut; the cheaper dollar and general risk appetite are fueling flows into Japanese stocks, especially beneficiaries of external demand.
3. Corporate reforms and buybacks . Strengthened corporate governance practices, stock market pressure to increase ROE/PB, and growth in share buyback programs remain long-term supports for the rally.
4. Industrial cycle: automotive and “new electronics.” Models with high export leverage (automotive, EV/ADAS components, semiconductor equipment) are benefiting from global fleet renewal and growth in technology CAPEX, which is maintaining the profitability of Nikkei's “core” weights. (Inference based on current trends and index structure; confirmed by the composition of session leaders.)
5. Domestic demand and earnings . Moderate wage growth and improved corporate earnings forecasts for the second half of the year are boosting the resilience of domestic demand — another plus for estimates.
The current surge is a classic mix of a weak yen + strong exporters + soft global rates . If corporate reforms and buybacks continue to work and external demand does not “collapse,” the #NIKKEI has a chance to stay close to record levels. FreshForex analysts remind us of the possible risks — a sharp reversal of the yen, delays in trade agreements, and possible tightening by the Bank of Japan — but the underlying backdrop is still playing in favor of the bulls.
JP225 - BUY TRADE IDEA 📊 with observation of the price structure, JP225 is currently holding on support level and forming a reversal pattern (Double bottom) on the support levels. A push to the upside is possible before Retesting the previous trendline support as resistance before seeing a continuation of the fall on JP225
⚠️ a break below support would suggest JP225 entering strongly into bearish territory.
NIKKEI Rebound Ahead! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
NIKKEI is trading in a
Strong uptrend and the
Index is making a retest
Of the horizontal support
Level of 42,138 from where
We will be expecting a local
Bullish rebound
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
JP225 - Buy trade idea Market is in a very strong trend, and with previous resistance holding well and failing to break just before the JPY (Balance of Trade) news, this suggests bullish pressure keeping the market above the support. A break of structure/ Change of character on the lower time frame would suggest buying pressure coming into the market and JP225 could push to the upside 🚀🚀
TARGET REACHED on Japan 225 after a wave of emotionsTarget 42,153 REACHED since 11 June 2025.
It actually was a classic text book analysis with a W Formation followed by a Falling Wedge.
I've always believed in keeping in simple. ANd when you find something simple ONLY improve tweak and adjust that strategy to make life easier, more understandable and profitable.
Hence been using the same strategy since 2003.
So now that the target has reached 42,153 - we can actually expect further upside followed by a consolidation pattern which will prepare for the next move.
Will it be up or down? We'll have to find out.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Nikkei 225 & USD/JPY AnalysisThe Nikkei 225 has reached new all-time highs (almost reaching 44,000), driven by strong domestic economic indicators and robust corporate earnings.
The yen has strengthened against the US dollar, influenced by
1) speculation over the timing of a rate cut from the FOMC, and
2) the Bank of Japan's hawkish stance and expectations of interest rate hikes.
(narrowing of monetary policy between the two countries)
Historically, a weaker yen (rising USD/JPY - thin blue line) has been beneficial for Japanese exporters, leading to increased corporate earnings and, consequently, a rising Nikkei 225.
But, at times, this inverse relationship has shown signs of divergence.
The current divergence between the USDJPY and the Nikkei 225 suggests that the Nikkei 225 is increasingly driven by domestic economic factors rather than the traditional USD/JPY correlation.
In the short term, the Nikkei 225 may continue its upward momentum, supported by strong economic fundamentals and investor confidence.
With the price breaking out and staying above the upward channel, climbing toward the 45,000 price level.
Medium-Term Risks: Potential geopolitical tensions and shifts in global economic conditions could introduce volatility in the medium term. This could lead to a retracement down to 42,000 before trading higher again.
While the traditional correlation has weakened, ongoing monitoring of USD/JPY movements remains essential, as significant fluctuations could still impact investor sentiment.
The NIKKEI 225 reached a new high on strong Japanese Q2 GDP
Japanese equities extended their rally last week, supported by strong economic data and expectations of Fed rate cuts. Notably, Japan’s Q2 GDP exceeded consensus, helping propel the market to fresh highs. GDP grew 1.0% YoY (prev. 0.6%, cons. 0.4%), easing recession fears despite lingering uncertainty over Japan-US tariff negotiations throughout the quarter. The achievement drew particular market attention, given the challenging trade backdrop.
Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Bessent sparked controversy by openly pressuring the BoJ to tighten policy, citing Japan’s inflation as a severe problem. Markets cautioned that if such remarks were to influence actual policy action, investors could view a BoJ rate hike as politically driven, complicating its execution.
NIKKEI 225 breached above the ascending channel’s upper bound and set a new high. The widening gap between both EMAs suggests the potential extension of bullish momentum. If NIKKEI 225 holds above the channel’s upper bound, the index may test the resistance at 44000. Conversely, if NIKKEI 225 reenters the channel and breaks below the support at 42115, the index could retreat toward the next support at 40800.
JP225 Resistance Break – Will You Catch the Momentum?🦹♂️💹 JP225 / NIKKEI “Ninja Vault Raid” – Resistance Wall Breakout 42,500 🚀💰
🎩 Greetings, Vault Crackers & Chart Raiders!
The Nikkei vault is about to blow wide open, and we’re going in Thief Trader style — silent entry, loud profit. This isn’t just a trade… it’s a full-on market heist.
🎯 Master Plan:
Asset: JP225 / Nikkei Index CFD
Direction: Bullish – RESISTANCE WALL BREAKOUT PLAN 42,500
Entry: Only after candle close above the wall – stack multiple limit orders like laying C4 charges.
Stop Loss: 41,700 – the escape hatch if the alarms go off.
Target: 43,600 – where the loot is stashed. Beware: the “Market Police” are waiting here, so exit clean.
🧠 Heist Blueprint:
1️⃣ Wait for the breach – No early moves, patience is profit.
2️⃣ Layered entry strategy – Spread buys across retrace points to stay undetected.
3️⃣ Trail the stash – Use trailing SL to protect gains as we climb.
📊 Why this works:
Strong bullish pressure building like a vault about to pop.
Breakout setup confirmed by momentum & structure.
Global sentiment & macro flows acting as our inside man.
⚠️ Thief Trader Risk Rule:
Avoid chasing during high-impact news – that’s when SWAT moves in.
Stick to the plan. No greed. No hesitation.
💥 If this Nikkei Heist plan helps you snatch pips, drop a boost & join the Thief Crew.
We rob the market… not each other. 🏆💸
📌 Disclaimer: This is the blueprint for our raid – not financial advice. Execute with your own tools & timing.
NI225: Local Bearish Bias! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse NI225 together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 43,378.26 Therefore, a strong bearish reaction here could determine the next move down.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 43,052.803.Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
NIKKEI Will Keep Growing! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
NIKKEI is trading in a
Strong uptrend and the
Pair made a bullish breakout
Of the key horizontal level
Of 42,500 and the breakout
Is confirmed so we are bullish
Biased and we will be expecting
A further bullish move up
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Nikkei 225 Index Sets All-Time RecordNikkei 225 Index Sets All-Time Record
As the chart shows, the Nikkei 225 stock index (Japan 225 on FXOpen) rose today to the 43,000-point level, thereby:
→ surpassing its 2024 peak;
→ setting a new all-time high.
Bullish sentiment has been driven by strong quarterly earnings reports from Japanese companies and expectations regarding the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy. Optimism was further reinforced by news of extended trade negotiations between the United States and China. According to Reuters, the decision to prolong the tariff truce between the world’s two largest economies by a further 90 days has improved the outlook for global trade.
Technical Analysis of the Nikkei 225 Chart
Earlier this month, we:
→ identified an ascending channel formed by price fluctuations in 2025;
→ suggested that bullish momentum would likely be sufficient to attempt a breakout above the 42k level;
→ noted that optimism might wane if the price approached the channel’s upper boundary.
Since then:
→ the channel has remained valid, as has the intermediate trendline (marked in orange) of the uptrend;
→ following a brief consolidation, the price broke above the 42,500 level on a long bullish candle.
However, the subsequent bearish candles appear to signal the start of a short-term correction, which is reasonable given the RSI indicator’s overbought reading. In this scenario, the correction could extend, for example, to the 42,000 level – a psychological mark where the 2025 high had previously been located.
In the longer term, a bearish scenario cannot be ruled out. Note the candle marked with an arrow: although it appears strongly bullish at first glance, the sharp surge could be linked to a buying climax and the beginning of a distribution phase (as per Richard Wyckoff’s theory).
Given that the index is at record highs, major market participants may use the positive news flow to lock in profits and sell assets at elevated prices. Confidence in this hypothesis would be reinforced if today’s sharp rise is soon reversed, signalling the bulls’ failure to maintain control at these record levels.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NI225: Bears Are Winning! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse NI225 together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break below the current local range around 41,820.41 will confirm the new direction downwards with the target being the next key level of 41,469.36 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Nikkei 225 Index Rises Towards the 42,000 LevelNikkei 225 Index Rises Towards the 42,000 Level
As the chart indicates, the Nikkei 225 stock index has today risen to the 42,000 mark, which is just below its all-time high.
Among the bullish drivers:
→ Corporate news. Strong quarterly results were reported by Sony Group and SoftBank.
→ Trade agreement developments. Positive news flow surrounds a potential tariff agreement between the United States and Japan, which could be finalised in the near term. According to Reuters, the Japanese government stated on Thursday that the US has pledged to adjust overlapping tariffs on Japanese goods to avoid double taxation.
Technical Analysis of the Nikkei 225 Chart
Previously, we highlighted the ascending channel that has shaped price action throughout 2025. This pattern remains valid, with the price now entering the upper half of the channel. The channel’s median line might act as a support level going forward.
The recent price behaviour attracts attention: a long bullish candle has formed on the chart – immediately following a breakout above the 41,280 resistance level (as indicated by the arrow). This signals a clear imbalance in favour of buyers.
From a bearish perspective:
→ The psychological resistance at 42,000 may hold – in late July, the price failed to stay above this level.
→ The RSI indicator has entered overbought territory.
→ Failure by the bulls to sustain a break above 42,000 could validate a potential Double Top bearish pattern.
From a bullish perspective:
→ The price might advance towards the upper boundary of the ascending channel.
→ The bullish candle displays characteristics of an FVG (Fair Value Gap) bullish pattern, which might serve as a future support level.
→ Further support could be provided by the orange trendline, as well as the former resistance at 41,280.
A bullish breakout attempt above 42,000 cannot be ruled out. However, will market optimism persist if the price approaches the upper limit of the channel?
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
JPN225 H4 | Bearish reversalJapan 225 Index (JPN225) is reacting off the sell entry which acts as a swing high resistance and could reverse from this level oculd indicating a double top pattern which might lead to a potential price drop to the take profit.
Sell entry is at 42,043.92, which is a swing high resistance.
Stop loss is at 42,794.15, which aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and the 100% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit is at 41,269.97, which is a pullback support.
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NIKKEI WILL KEEP GROWING|LONG|
✅NIKKEI is trading in an uptrend
And the index was making a bearish correction
But it has now retested a horizontal support level of 40,500
From where we are already seeing a bullish
Reaction and I am expecting the index to go further up
LONG🚀
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Nikkei primary trend remains bullish.NIK225 - 24h expiry
Price action continues to trade around significant highs.
The primary trend remains bullish.
20 1day EMA is at 40385.
We look for a temporary move lower.
Dip buying offers good risk/reward.
We look to Buy at 40405 (stop at 40105)
Our profit targets will be 41305 and 41455
Resistance: 40895 / 41043 / 41315
Support: 40635 / 40375 / 40000
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NIKKEI: Strong Bullish Momentum Driven by Favorable IndicatorsData analysis indicates a "Bullish" bias for the NIKKEI, with a strong overall score. This positive outlook is supported by a confluence of factors, including Commitments of Traders (COT) data, retail positioning, seasonality, and trend. While some economic data points show neutrality or slight negativity, the overriding sentiment and key technical factors suggest a continued upward trajectory for the NIKKEI.
Key Supporting Factors (Bullish):
Strong Technicals/Momentum: The "Trend" and "Seasonality" scores of 2 each suggest strong underlying bullish momentum and favorable seasonal patterns for the NIKKEI.
COT & Retail Positioning: Positive scores in "COT" and "Retail Pos" (both 2) often indicate that institutional money and retail traders are aligned in a bullish direction, providing a strong foundation for upward movement.
GDP, SPMI, Retail Sales: These economic indicators, with scores of 1, are contributing positively to the overall bullish bias, indicating healthy economic activity.