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QQQ - NASDAQ Has Never Been This ExpensiveQQQ relative to the money supply reveals that markets have never been this expensive in history. Despite the significant amount of money pumped in during the COVID-19 pandemic, the economy has not kept pace with all the zeros added to Gov debt.
If we can't lower deficits now at max employment, when will we?
Tulips!
Caution is in order despite what "experts" may tell you.
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NAS100 H4 | Bullish Bounce from Key SupportNAS100 is falling towards the buy entry at 24,804.95, which is an overlap support that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to the upside.
Stop loss is at 24,423.43, which is a pullback support.
Take profit is at 25,500.67, which lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
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US100 | Expansion Phase Alignment
The Market Flow | Oct 23, 2025
Technical Overview
โข Price confirms a breakout above the active countertrend trigger (green).
โข All observed timeframes are in bullish alignment โ wave structure expanding higher.
โข Immediate resistance lies near 25,175 , where the 100% Fibonacci projection aligns.
โข Clearing this zone opens continuation toward higher Fibonacci extensions โ 25,353 , 25,418 , 25,464 , and 25,583+ .
โข Structural pivots remain supportive above 24,763 and 24,613.7 (daily pivot zone).
Trade Structure & Levels
โข Bias: Long above 24,613.7
โข Trigger = 25,095โ25,143 breakout zone
โข Primary Invalidation = 24,613.7 (daily pivot)
โข Secondary Invalidation = 24,323.5 (H4 pivot)
โข Targets โ Fibonacci extensions: 25,353 โ 25,418 โ 25,464 โ 25,583
โข Phase: Expansion
Risk & Event Context
โข Focus remains on U.S. macro data and yield repricing.
โข Short-term volatility expected around key data prints; sustained closes above the trigger confirm momentum continuation.
Conclusion
The US100 shows multi-timeframe bullish alignment, initiating an expansion phase above the countertrend trigger. As long as price holds above the daily pivot at 24,613.7, the structure supports progressive upside toward the Fibonacci expansion cluster.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a recommendation. Market conditions and price behavior may change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
NAS100 | Bullish Momentum ExpectedBased on the H4 chart analysis, we could see the price fall to the buy entry at 25,196.55, which is a pullbakc support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to the upside.
Stop loss is at 24,926.57, which is a pullback support that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 25,626.70, which aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Nasdaq100 Breakout Map โ Bullish Targets Ahead?๐ต๏ธโโ๏ธ NDX/US100 โNASDAQ100โ Market Wealth Strategy Map (Swing/Day Trade) ๐
๐ Plan: Bullish Bias (Swing/Day Trade)
๐ฏ Entry Idea (Thief Layering Style):
Using a layering strategy (multiple limit orders). My preferred buy zones are:
๐ข 24,300
๐ข 24,400
๐ข 24,500
๐ข 24,600
(Feel free to adjust/add layers based on your own style โ flexibility is key.)
๐ Protective Stop (Thief SL):
โ Around 24,000 (but note: this is just my map, you can manage risk as per your own plan).
๐ฐ Target Area (Profit Zone):
๐ง 25,500 = strong resistance barricade + overbought region + potential bull trap.
โ
My preferred exit: 25,400 (just before the โpolice barricadeโ ๐).
โ ๏ธ Note for Thief OGโs:
Iโm not recommending to only follow my SL/TP. This is an educational trade map, not a fixed financial call. Adapt, adjust, and take profits your way.
๐ Key Catalysts & Correlation Map:
Tech Sector Strength: US100 often mirrors mega-cap tech momentum ( NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:NVDA ).
Risk-On/Off Mood: Watch TVC:VIX โ if fear spikes, layers may fill quicker.
Dollar Impact: TVC:DXY weakness often fuels NASDAQ:NDX upside.
Bond Yields: Higher yields = pressure on tech. Keep TVC:US10Y in your radar.
๐ Other Related Charts to Watch:
SP:SPX / CME_MINI:ES1! โ Correlated US equity benchmark.
TVC:DXY โ Inverse correlation (watch dollar moves).
TVC:VIX โ Volatility indicator for risk sentiment.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD โ Risk sentiment cousin, moves with tech flows sometimes.
โจ โIf you find value in my analysis, a ๐ and ๐ boost is much appreciated โ it helps me share more setups with the community!โ
โ ๏ธ Disclaimer:
This is a Thief Style Trading Strategy Map โ created for fun, educational purposes, and market observation only. Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk, ladies & gentlemen. ๐ต๏ธโโ๏ธ๐ธ
#NASDAQ100 #NDX #US100 #SPX #Stocks #Indices #Trading #SwingTrade #DayTrade #LayeringStrategy #ThiefTrader
NAS100 โ Price Enters Uncharted TerritoryZone 1: New All-Time High
This zone marks where the US session closed yesterday, establishing a new all-time high. Price has never traded this high before, putting the market in uncharted territory. Momentum remains strong, but with no historical structure above, traders should watch for signs of exhaustion or potential profit-taking as price explores this fresh high ground. A clean break and hold above the zone would confirm continued bullish control, while early rejection could spark a minor pullback.
Zone 2: Asia Session Open
Price opened around this level during Mondayโs Asia session before accelerating sharply higher. The strong reaction from this area confirms it as an intraday demand zone and the first meaningful layer of support if price retraces. Should the market revisit this level today, traders will be watching closely for renewed buying pressure to defend the short-term uptrend.
Zone 3: Previous All-Time High
This zone marks last weekโs US session close and the previous all-time high before the breakout. It now serves as deeper structural support, the base of the current rally. As long as price holds above Zone 3, the broader bullish structure remains intact. A clean break below, however, could suggest fading momentum and open the door for a deeper correction toward the prior range.
Today's sentiment
The Nas100 continues to trade with a cautiously positive bias after last weekโs sharp rebound. Optimism is underpinned by improving risk sentiment, strong momentum in mega-cap tech, and renewed hopes that the Federal Reserve could adopt a more accommodative stance as inflation pressures ease. The partial US government shutdown, however, has delayed key macroeconomic releases, leaving markets โflying blindโ and amplifying the potential impact of every new headline.
Geopolitical developments also remain in focus: progress in USโChina trade dialogue has helped calm nerves, but investors are aware that tensions over technology exports and global supply chains could resurface quickly.
For traders, the setup favors tactical flexibility. Tech remains the marketโs driving force, but with valuations stretched and volatility likely to spike on sparse data or political noise, short-term positioning and disciplined risk management are essential. In short, sentiment is constructive, but fragile.
BIAS UPDATED: RECAP OF ORIGINAL BIASSOMETIMES WE GET IT WRONG:
This week was a clear indication of why I lean on IF-THEN forecasts (If price does this, then I do that):
- Study my notes in the chart to understand the change of bias and the change in the state of price delivery.
DISCLAIMER:
The owner of this page is an authorised Representative under supervision of TD MARKETS (PTY) LTD, an authorised Financial Services Provider (FSP No. 49128) licensed by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) under the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act (FAIS).
The FSP is licensed to provide advice and intermediary services in respect of Category I financial products, including but not limited to derivative instruments, long-term deposits, and short-term deposits.
All investment ideas are provided in accordance with the scope of the FSP's license and applicable regulatory requirements. Derivative instruments is a leveraged products that carry high risks and could result in losing all of your capital, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
This idea and any attachments are informational/education and does not constitute a recommendation to buy/sell.
No guarantee is made regarding the accuracy or outcome of this trade idea.
If you choose to accept this idea, please do so at your own risk.
USNASDAQ100 Consolidation to downside correctionThe NASDAQ 100 started the week on solid ground, supported by gains in mega-cap stocks. However, investor sentiment remains cautious ahead of a wave of corporate earnings and a critical inflation report, both of which could determine the next major market move.
๐ Outlook
If sellers maintain control, the USNAS100 could correct toward 25,300 initially. A break below this level would open the door toward the 24,550 support area. However, a rebound from 25,300 could trigger a short-term recovery โ but the broader outlook remains bearish unless price regains ground above 26,000.
You may find more details in the chart.
Trade wisely best of Luck Buddies.
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NASDAQ 100 (NDX)-The Grand Super Cycle Journey๐ง The Grand Super Cycle Journey of NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
Here's a comprehensive, narrative-style description of NASDAQ 100 (NDX) INDEX based on Elliott Wave Theory , Smart Money Concepts (SMC) , Fibonacci Retracements/Extensions , Price Action , and Fundamentals across Super Cycle , Macro , and Micro Waves ๐๐:
๐ฑ Super Cycle Wave 1: The Birth of Tech (1986โ2000)
The journey begins with Wave 1 , ignited by the early tech boom โ Microsoft, Intel, and the rise of Silicon Valley ๐. This impulsive leg spans over a decade, culminating in the dot-com bubble peak in 2000.
๐น Smart Money Insight: Early accumulation started in the '80s, followed by massive markup into the 1990s. Retail entered late, leading to the euphoric climax in 2000.
๐น Price Action: Parabolic rallies, breakouts through historical resistance, ending in a massive overextension.
๐น Fundamentals: Era of growth, innovation, low inflation, and initial internet adoption.
๐ช๏ธ Super Cycle Wave 2: The Great Correction (2000โ2009)
The bursting of the dot-com bubble triggered a complex correction labeled as W-X-Y. This 9-year structure ends in the 2008โ09 financial crisis low. The market retraced to the 0.382 Fibonacci level , a classic deep correction in a strong long-term bull market.
๐ธ Smart Money: Distribution at the top โ manipulation through global uncertainty (9/11, housing bubble) โ reaccumulation near the 2009 lows ๐ง ๐.
๐ธ Fundamentals: Enron scandal, 9/11, housing collapse, Lehman bankruptcy โ a decade of fear and instability ๐๏ธ.
๐ Super Cycle Wave 3: The Exponential Phase (2009โ2029)*
The most powerful leg โ Wave 3 โ is unfolding, targeting an eventual 2.618 Fibonacci extension (~85,000) . This wave is subdivided into 5 Macro Waves , each composed of 5 Micro Waves . Here's how the structure progresses:
โ๏ธ Macro Wave 1 (2009โ2012)
Started at the GFC low, this wave marked the beginning of recovery, finishing with 5 orange micro waves .
๐ Micro Waves: A clean 5-wave impulse showing the early stages of structural strength.
๐ Price Action: Break of structure (BoS) confirms bullish reversal.
๐ฆ Fundamentals: QE1/QE2, low interest rates, tech stabilization, birth of FAANG era ๐ป.
๐ Smart Money: Institutions started accumulating in late 2009โ2010, reflected in tight consolidations and sharp rallies.
๐ Macro Wave 2 (2012)
A brief and shallow correction within the bullish context โ a classic bullish flag in terms of price action. Quickly ended with higher lows.
๐ง SMC: Short manipulation phase to shake weak hands.
๐ Price Action: Pullback respected prior structure โ no trend break.
๐ฅ Macro Wave 3 (2012โ2021)
This was the largest and most explosive wave , extending over 9 years and forming 5 purple micro waves.
๐ฃ Micro Waves: Clean impulsive structure, confirming a classic Elliott wave fractal.
๐ก Fundamentals:
Rise of cloud computing
Mobile-first economy
AI, semiconductors, and social media explosion
COVID-19 crash and rebound โ the fastest recovery in history
๐น Fibonacci: No deep retracements โ sign of a healthy, powerful wave 3.
๐ง Smart Money: Deep accumulation during COVID crash โ massive expansion post-March 2020 ๐.
๐งฑ Macro Wave 4 (2021โ2022)
A healthy correction that reset the structure โ completed around the 2022 low. This wave maintained market structure integrity.
๐ป SMC: Liquidity sweep of previous lows + mitigation of demand zones.
๐ Price Action: Range-bound, bearish to neutral.
๐ Macro Headwinds:
Interest rate hikes
Inflation fears
Global instability (Russia-Ukraine, energy crisis)
๐งฌ Macro Wave 5 (2022โ2029) โ Now Unfolding*
This is the final thrust of the Super Cycle Wave 3 , subdivided into 5 micro waves (current count in progress):
๐ธ Micro Wave 1 โ
Initial rally from 2022 lows, showing strong impulsive behavior.
๐ง Smart Money: Confirmed shift from reaccumulation to expansion.
๐ธ Micro Wave 2 โ
Pullback formed higher low โ acted as final reaccumulation.
๐ด Micro Wave 3 โ In Process (2025โ2026)
This is expected to be the strongest wave within Macro Wave 5, projected to peak near 36,000 (2.618 extension of micro 1โ2).
๐ Price Action: Aggressive higher highs and shallow pullbacks.
๐ง SMC: Expansion with little liquidity left below โ institutions pushing price up.
๐ก Fundamentals:
AI hypergrowth
US tech dominance
AI chips, quantum computing, tokenization
Renewed bullish risk appetite ๐
๐ Micro Wave 4 (Expected 2026โ2027)
A corrective wave likely to retest the macro structure โ forming a flag or triangle.
๐ Price Action: Sideways to downward chop, retracing 0.382โ0.5 of wave 3.
๐ง SMC: Inducement setup before final rally.
๐ Macro: Possible geopolitical or monetary tightening phase.
๐ต Micro Wave 5 (Expected Top in 2029)
The final leg of Macro Wave 5 and Super Cycle Wave 3. Expected to top near 85,000 , a 2.618% Fibonacci extension of Super Cycle Waves 1โ2.
๐ฏ Final Parabolic Blow-Off
๐ Price Action: Euphoria, exponential rally, low-volume melt-up
๐ Smart Money: Final distribution phase โ retail FOMO peaks
๐งจ Fundamentals: Mania phase โ โeverything AI/metaverse/tokenizedโ narrative, record valuations, IPO booms.
๐ฎ Looking Beyond: Super Cycle Wave 4 (Post-2029)
Once the 85K target is met, a multi-year correction is expected โ possibly deep and drawn out. Historically, Wave 4s retrace 0.236% to 0.382% and take years to unfold.
๐ง Expect:
Systemic debt pressure
Currency shifts
Economic reset themes
Potential Fed policy overcorrection
Liquidity crunch
๐ง๏ธ Super Cycle Wave 4 may retest previous demand zones around 30โ36K.
๐ Final Thoughts
Our analysis represents an extraordinary blend of Elliott Wave fractals , institutional behavior (SMC) , and macro-fundamental alignment . We are in the late phase of a historical Super Cycle rally โ but Wave 3 still has room to run ๐.
โ
Wave Count Aligned
โ
Fibonacci Extensions Respected
โ
SMC Structure Intact
โ
Macro-Fundamentals in Sync
๐ 2025โ2029 could be the final push before a generational correction. Smart investors must watch for distribution signs post-36K ๐.
"Trust the waves, not the noise." โ FIBCOS ๐
๐ Disclaimer: This is a structural, educational market outlook. Not financial advice. Please do your own due diligence and risk management.
#FIBCOS #ElliottWave #SmartMoneyConcept #MarketAnalysis #NASDAQ #XAUUSD #SuperCycle #MacroTrend #SmartMoney #Fibonacci #PriceAction #Commodities #Stocks #TechnicalAnalysis #LongTermOutlook
USTEC rebounds on trade optimism. Potential for further gains?USTEC rose as confirmation of the TrumpโXi meeting lifted sentiment and offset mixed corporate earnings. Tesla (TSLA) rebounded despite uneven results, while IBM (IBM) slipped on softer software revenue. However, the company's broader performance remained resilient, with strong demand in AI and automation services driving solid growth in its infrastructure and hybrid cloud segments. Investors remain cautious ahead of the TrumpโXi meeting, with sentiment hinging on upcoming policy signals and trade developments.
From a technical perspective, USTEC rebounded from the ascending channel's lower bound and support at 24000. A break above the 25200 resistance may prompt further upside toward the channel's upper bound and 78.6% Fibonacci Extension at 26000. Conversely, a bearish breakout of the channel and a close below 24000 may prompt a further decline toward the following support at 23000.
By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness
NASDAQ | Daily TF - Bearish Divergence with Double TopCAPITALCOM:US100 NASDAQ continues to hold a bearish tone on the 1-hour chart, with a clear bearish divergence confirming weakness in momentum. Price is respecting lower highs and lower lows, keeping the short-term structure bearish.
On the 4H timeframe, the index is approaching the trendline support around 24,600, which marks the third touch of this level. If this zone fails to hold, we could see an extended move toward the 24,000 area.
From a broader view, the daily chart shows a double top pattern along with a strong bearish divergence โ both supporting a deeper pullback. However, a daily close above 25,220 would invalidate this view and could shift momentum back to the upside.
๐ฐ With the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and heightened market uncertainty, sentiment remains mixed. Volatility is expected to stay elevated, so itโs best to wait for clear confirmation around key levels before taking any positions.
Nasdaq Enjoys CPI, But How Much More?Nasdaq still trending up, enjoying the today's lower than expected CPI data. If it ride towards the upper line of the channel, it likely to get rejected. I don't see any reason for an upside breakout at the moment. Setup is for today and Monday, I will deactivate my order after Monday.
Risk/Reward: 2.28
NASDAQ Short There is a lot of resistance, as it is at an all-time high and is unable to break this level
There are 2 patterns on M15 and M30 showing a potential reversal zone
This is against the H4 trend; however, it is overbought on H1
RSI is showing strong divergence with a triple top on H1
Stoploss above 21300
First target 24870 or when M15 is oversold
NO CLEAR BIAS: AWAITING PRICE ACTION SIGNALS TO DECIDESTUDY THE POINTS MADE ON THE H1 ALONGSIDE WHAT THE DAILY CHART INDICATES
DISCLAIMER:
The owner of this page is an authorised Representative under supervision of TD MARKETS (PTY) LTD, an authorised Financial Services Provider (FSP No. 49128) licensed by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) under the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act (FAIS).
The FSP is licensed to provide advice and intermediary services in respect of Category I financial products, including but not limited to derivative instruments, long-term deposits, and short-term deposits.
All investment ideas are provided in accordance with the scope of the FSP's license and applicable regulatory requirements. Derivative instruments is a leveraged products that carry high risks and could result in losing all of your capital, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
This idea and any attachments are informational/education and does not constitute a recommendation to buy/sell.
No guarantee is made regarding the accuracy or outcome of this trade idea.
If you choose to accept this idea, please do so at your own risk.






















